Monday 10/6 NLDS Game Two Thoughts & Analysis

Dodgers @ Phillies

We start with a pair of star southpaws, who both dominated down the stretch. Blake Snell posting double digit strikeout starts in two straight before his last start of the season, in which he struck out five of 23 Diamondbacks. Snell walked four and struck out two in each of his first two starts for the Dodgers. Then he hit the IL. In nine starts since returning, he has a 24 K-BB%, hitting 40% three times and 33% as well. His strong pitch modeling is only beaten by his opponent on Monday’s board, while a 3.64 SIERA is his only estimator reaching three and a half. Snell also managed to keep nearly half his contact on the ground (48.7%) with just a 34 HardHit%.

His Wild Card start against the Reds couldn’t have gone much better. The fastball up nearly a mph, maintaining it’s 18 inch iVB, Snell generated 19 whiffs on 91 pitches, including 15 of the 20 swings against his changeup (31 Z-Contact%). He struck out nine of 26 batters with just a single walk and 10 of 16 batted balls on the ground.

Snell did have a bit of a split this year, but held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. Harrison Bader’s availability is questionable at best, but I’d expect maybe one additional LHB besides Scwarber and Harper. Facing a LHP does put the Phillies in their lesser split (106 wRC+) with my projected lineup averaging a 113 wRC+ and .176 ISO vs LHP this season, even if they have to play one of their weaker lefties.

Jesus Luzardo allowed four runs in two of his last three starts, but also threw 22 innings over that span with a 31.6 K-BB% over that span, ending his season at a 21% mark just 0.3 points from a career high (2022). Aside from the best pitch modeling on the board, Luzardo did not project a single estimator within half a run of his 3.92 ERA (.324 BABIP, 69.4%) and things look even better if you discount the 20 runs he gave up over a 5.2 inning span at the end of May/beginning of June.

Luzardo keeps the Dodgers in their worse split, but that’s still a 111 wRC+ vs LHP. Projecting Will Smith back into a lineup that otherwise looks like Saturday night, would give you an average 115 wRC+ and .203 ISO. Luzardo had a much larger split than Snell with an 80 point wOBA difference and nearly 100 points by xwOBA. Yet, that barely makes RHBs average, if that (.304, .313).

There should be no weather impact unless winds pick up, but Adrian Johnson does lean slightly hitter friendly. If both teams line up as projected, the Dodgers would have clear defensive edge, being just average. The Phillies would get a bit of that back in base running. While the Dodgers do have the superior offense with both teams facing a LHP, the Phillies do have a 20 point Home/Road wRC+ edge to even things out. I have Snell very slightly the better pitcher.

While neither of these teams finished with a top half of the league September bullpen, I’d expect both to be better than the performed. The Phillies because they couldn’t be much worse, but still have a recent history of bullpen blowups in post-season games. The Dodgers because they add Sheehan, Sasaki and Glasnow, which probably gives them the better set of arms overall.

I make this game out to be just about even, making the Phillies the slight lean at +112, though I don’t consider it enough to be actionable. I’m projecting a total around eight and don’t expect to have a dog in this fight.

As a side note, I’ll only be covering daily fantasy notes if we’re playing more than two games (Wed), but your pitcher is certainly going to be coming from this game.

Cubs @ Brewers

This is the easier half of the equation. Shota Imanaga CERTAINLY did not finish his season on the best note. He allowed 12 home runs and 17 barrels (15.9%) over his last 34.2 innings (139 batters faced). While Imanaga perfectly matches his 3.73 ERA with his 3.73 Bot ERA, all other estimators were more than half a run higher because of the .219 BABIP and 81.5 LOB%. An extreme fly ball pitcher with a 12.7 IFFB% is supposed to have a meaningfully lower BABIP, but more in the .260 range and there’s no justification for the strand rate.

I want to say Chourio is a big loss for the Brewers against LHP, especially a guy like Imanaga, but the Brewers seemed to do okay with him missing a large chunk of the season. I’m projecting a lineup with an average 109 wRC+ against LHP this year, but just a .121 ISO without Chourio. Would you believe William Contreras posted just a .099 ISO vs LHP this year? Imanaga had about a 25-30 point normal split this season, but with Statcast pushing both sides up by 25-30 points too, giving RHBs a .335 xwOBA against him.

Now, the trickier half of this problem. Aaron Ashby is opening. He will certainly be gone by the third inning, if not the first (unless he’s perfect maybe). Then…profit? Yeah, I know, we’re skipping the second step because the Brewers are being coy. Will it be Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester or something else altogether.

The answer may even depend on how the Cubs line up and if I were them, I wouldn’t change a thing. I’d rather be caught expecting Priester and get Quintana than the other way around. The reason for that is that while Preister’s peripherals have been a bit streaky (19.7 K-BB% L5 starts, 12.3% prior nine outings, 25.6 K-BB% in four starts before that), his 56.1 GB% has been steady. He was barreled up just 34  times (7.4%) with a 39.4 HardHit%. With a 12.6 K-BB% overall, Priester wouldn’t have an estimator above four if not for 18 of his barrels leaving the park (4.01 FIP) and the worst pitch modeling on the board.

By wOBA, Priester had a 27 point standard split. By xwOBA, 43 points. The Cubs usually send four extremely competent LHBs to the plate against RHP, averaging a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO.

Now, let’s say they send their normal lineup to the plate and get Quintana instead of Priester. That’s three LHBs with Happ a switch hitter. Now, the same lineup still averages a 116 wRC+ and .193 ISO against LHP. You lose something with Busch, Happ and PCA, but gain in other spots. They’d also be facing a much worse pitcher.

Quintana has much worse pitch modeling than Priester and his best estimator is a 4.81 FIP with jus t18 of his 40 barrels (9.7%) leaving the park. This, despite a 3.96 ERA. You might counter that Quintana has beaten his peripherals throughout his career. I’d counter your counter with his .259 BABIP being the lowest of his career, his 7.0 K-BB% is only 0.1 point better than his previous career worst, his rookie year in 2012 and his barrel and hit hard rates are also the worst of his career in any non-pandemic shortened season.

Previously, Quintana was beating marginal peripherals. Now he’s beating awful ones to a similar degree. It’s completely unsustainable and we might have even seen it this year if he had thrown more than 131.2 innings. Quintana allowed 17 runs over his last 20.2 innings. Also, Quintana’s performance against LHBs was nearly as bad as Priester’s (.309 wOBA, .315 xwOBA). Alternatively, RHBs had just a .307 wOBA against him, but that’s where most of the luck falls (.370 xwOBA).

With cooler weather and a slight chance of rain, I’m projecting a closed roof on Monday. When that is the case, Milwaukee has a park run factor of 92, which is lower even than Cleveland or Wrigley (94), which we saw last week. It’s the second lowest run environment in baseball over the last three years, beaten only by Seattle (77 roof closed, 83 open on average). And to make matters even more pitcher friendly, Mike Estabrook may be the pitcher friendliest umpire in the league.

As such, with Quintana pitching, I project the Cubs as small favorites with a total around 8.5. With Priester pitching, I make the Brewers small favorites with a total around 7.75. If you’re spies somehow find out that Quintana is going to be the bulk pitcher tomorrow, I would find very slight balue in the Cubs at +102, but no worse than even money. The problem is, you probably won’t know and that doesn’t even project Ashby for a couple of innings either.

Bullpen stats L30 days (not including post-season)...

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results.