Saturday 10/4 Division Series Game One & Series Thoughts & Analysis

Cubs @ Brewers

I want to call back to something I wrote on Tuesday night, prior to Game Two of the Cubs’ series with the Padres.

… we have to keep in mind the trick Craig Counsel pulled with the Brewers a few years ago when he sent Wade Miley out to start the game and face only a single Dodger before being pulled and started the next day normally (I think that’s right at least). Who’s to say Imanaga even pitches at all?

Well, Counsel didn’t pull a fast one on the Padres, but maybe he should have. Here, he wants us to believe that Matt Boyd is starting Game One of the NLDS against Counsel’s old team, who should know his tricks. Boyd will be pitching on three days rest, but just 58 pitches. Will this be a legit start? I don’t know.

Boyd struck out just two of 18 Padres he faced, down half a mph and an inch of iVB on an already marginal fastball. He got just four swings and misses.

He never actually lived up to his 3.21 ERA (3.65 FIP – 4.22 xFIP), but remained in an average to above average range. The problem is he was much better than that prior to his last seven starts (37 IP – 25 R – 10 K-BB% - 12.3% Barrels/BBE – 41.4 HardHit% - 6.08 ERA/5.38 FIP/5.59 xFIP).

I do wonder what type of lineup the Brewers will post here. They do platoon some players and RHBs were close to 40 points better (wOBA & xwOBA) against Boyd than RHBs.

While Freddy Peralta was as streaky as ever and we will certainly question his 2.70 ERA too (3.47 xERA – 3.94 Bot ERA, though contradicted by a 107 Pitching+), he did end on a hot note with a 30.4 K-BB% over his last six starts, driving his season rate up to 19.1% on the season. And while the 9.2% Barrels/BBE he allowed was the second highest of his career, his 34.5 HardHit% was his best mark in three years, though he’s never been worse than average in his career in that department.

The problem is that Peralta only completed six innings in 13 of 33 starts this year. His high strikeout and walk rates can run up pitch counts. Not really as much as a post-season issue though. A solid Milwaukee pen has had a week off and should be even better welcoming back Closer Trevor Megill to end the season.

Peralta had just a 16 point wOBA split, though Statcast opens that up a bit to 31 points with LHBs at a league average .313 xwOBA against him. If the Cubs attack him with the same lineup they used in the Wild Card round, it will include four LHBs.

While the Cubs may have been the best defense in the league, Milwaukee was not far behind. The Cubs had a better offense. They slumped in the second half, but picked it up in September again and a few of their more questionable bats looked good against the Padres. The Brewers are fairly comparable, though not as potent. The Brewers are one of the few teams that may run the bases better than the Cubs.

When we look at the bullpens, the Cubs were better to close the season and both teams just got back their closers from the IL. Both teams may be without their best or second best pitchers (Woodruff, Horton). However, the Brewers will have a weapon the Cubs can’t match in the bullpen. That’s Jacob Misiorowski, assuming Chad Patrick is the third starter. It may be like facing Mason Miller all over again, though a less polished one.

This is another very difficult series to project. These teams are so close in several areas. In the end, I give the home team a bit of an edge, which is what the market suggests too. However, after recent post-season trials and tribulations, I think I want to root for the Brewers here and will make them a part of the AL/NLDS Series Round Robin as small favorites. You would think the extra rest would help them with pitching matchups, but that’s not the way it’s gone in recent years.

As for this first game, I can’t play it because I don’t know if Counsel’s intentions with Boyd are pure. (Which would also make him a difficult DFS pitcher to roster). Peralta is one of the three most expensive pitchers on the board in one of the tougher matchups with one of the best bullpens behind him and rested. He’s not going to be on my single entry roster either.

Incidentally, with temperatures in the mid-80s, this will be the warmest game on the slate with the roof likely open, which bumps the negative run environment (one of the lowest in the league with the roof closed), potentially into a positive one. We also have the most hitter friendly umpire on the slate and one of the more hitter friendly ones in the league in Edwin Moscoso behind the plate.

Boyd and Kelly may be the toughest combo to run on in the league, which certainly hurts a big part of the Milwaukee game. Peralta is a marginal holder, while Contreras is a strong arm behind the plate. Micheal Busch, who homered for the Cubs last run in Game Three of the Wild Card Series, has the best run value score against either pitcher in this game. He’s pretty strong across the board against whatever Peralta throws. In fact, considering the environment and circumstances, I have him the second ranked overall bat on the board, behind only Aaron Judge. I also have Tucker, Happ and PCA top 10 as well. All, along with Hoerner and Suzuki pop well for value too. Milwaukee bats are a bit harder to quantify for reasons stated. If we’re getting a two time through the order Boyd again, Chourio would be my highest ranking Brewer.

Yankees @ Blue Jays

Luis Gil made 11 starts with just a 3.3 K-BB% this year. He had only one start above 0% in his last five starts and that was 4.2%. He had a -12.5 K-BB% in his one start against the Blue Jays. Even with an average contact profile, that’s a 4.79 xERA, his second best non-FIP estimator. Only his pitch modeling was better (4.45 Bot ERA, 96 Pitching+), but still worst on the board by more than half a run.

Gil’s 3.32 ERA is predicated on a .256 BABIP and only five of his 14 barrels leaving the park. The 78.4 LOB% was a bit high for those peripherals as well. While batters from either side of the plate are above a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, Statcast drives LHBs from a .313 wOBA up to a .378 xwOBA. The Blue Jays will still be without Bo Bichette in this series, but do get back Anthony Santander, which will allow them to line up five LHBs here.

Kevin Gausman tangled with the Yankees four times this season. The first two were not good, but in two post-break starts, he totaled 15 innings of two run ball on eight hits, allowing two home runs on four barrels (more than league average, but fine against the Yankees, while striking out 13 of 56 batters with three walks. In fact, starting with that third start against the Yankees, Gausman posted a 21.3 K-BB% over his last 13 starts of the season post-break.

On the season, only his FIP and pitch modeling were better than his 3.59 ERA, though no estimators reached four. Gausman retained his annual reverse split with batters from either side of the plate below  a .290 wOBA, but with .298 and .316 xwOBAs. I wonder if the Yankees will alter their six LHB lineup against RHP here.

Gausman is a clear, clear, CLEAR advantage over Gil here. In fact, I have it nearly two runs, while the Blue Jays are the one team left in the American League that can compete with the Yankees offensively. I said compete though, not beat. And while the Yankees played good defense this year, Toronto may be the absolute best defense in the league this year. Both teams were a negative in the base running department.

While the bullpen estimators for September were close, it’s very difficult to call the Toronto bullpen on par with the Yankee pen, especially since the loss of Bassitt will probably mean Trey Yesavage will be needed to start Game Four (if necessary). The Yankees have a pitching edge past game one with Fried and Rodon taking on Bieber and Scherzer, but what we all probably want to see is Schlittler vs Yesavage.

Still, there’s enough of a pitching edge for the Blue Jays in Game One that I really like them in this spot and found two ways to play that lets me not have to worry too much about the Yankee bullpen, which also helps us hedge a bit if Gausman is off.

TOR -130 (F5) DK 1.3u
TOR o3.5 (-138) FD 0.69u

The series is a tougher proposition. As I said, the Yankees are the better offense and probably have an even larger bullpen gap, while I expect the Yankees to have at least some edge in starting pitchers in the games that don’t feature these two pitchers. However, along with Toronto’s defensive edge (plus home field), the edge in the two games that Gausman will start against Gil (assuming the Blue Jays can get to a game give) is so large that I have this very close.

One additional edge for the Yankees is how Schlittler allowed them to rest almost the entire bullpen for two whole days. However, the Yankees being the Yankees are sizeable favorites and make our decision to play Toronto (+132) in the Series Round Robin a bit easier.

With temperatures around 70, the roof should be open for Game One, which makes Rogers Centre a neutral run and power environment (a bit better for RH power). Chris Segal is a fairly neutral umpire with a very slight lean towards pitchers if anything at all.

As far as the running game goes for daily fantasy purposes, this is a neutral spot except for Gausman’s bit of an inability to hold runners. Judge, who I’ve already told you is my top bat on the board is just the second highest pitch run value score (he’s smashed fastballs, but struggled against splitters). Top honors go to George Springer, who scores well against all three of Gil’s offerings. In fact, Springer is my third ranked bat on the board. Grisham, Stanton and Rice are all playable bats here too. Barger is a decent cheap value.

We’re halfway through, so I better start picking pitchers and you know I’m not going with Gil against a Toronto lineup that doesn’t strike out. Gausman is, in fact, one of four pitchers I’m considering using here and considering he’s the cheapest of the four, he may be the best value on the board and the Yankee projected lineup is on par with Detroit for the highest strikeout rates on the board. I don't think Schneider will be in a rush to yank him. 

Dodgers @ Phillies

Shohei Ohtani worked up to a season high six innings and 91 pitches in his final outing in Arizona, as the Dodgers needed to clinch the division, but has had more than a week off since. The good news is that he’s held his elite velocity while pitching deeper into games and posted a career best 28.2 K-BB% with just four barrels and a 34.8 HardHIt% over 47 innings.

RHBs had some actual success against him (.295 wOBA), but that dropped to a .257 xwOBA. He’s been better against LHBs and while the Phillies are a balanced lineup, we do fear the two big lefties most of all.

If Cristopher Sanchez doesn’t finish second in the Cy Young voting, something is wrong. You can’t do much better than a 20.8 K-BB% with a 58.3 GB% with just 5.7% Barrels/BBE and 12 of 32 quality starts of at least seven innings and two runs or less. Sanchez rivals Ohtani for the best pitch modeling on the board and a 3.02 SIERA and xERA are the estimators furthest removed from his 2.50 ERA.

Luckily for the Dodgers, they only really have to play a pair of LHBs against him (Ohtani and Freeman), as batters from that side posted just a .191 wOBA and .245 xwOBA against Sanchez. RHBs were better (.295, .257), but still not good.

Ohtani may still be the better pitch for pitch starter in this game, but Sanchez may be able to go nearly three innings deeper than I’d expect Ohtani too. Offensively, the Phillies may have the edge here (122 wRC+ at home, 110 vs RHP vs 102/111 for the Dodgers). The Phillies should be able to keep this slight edge by throwing Suarez and Luzardo too, though they will have the starting pitching edge for neither of those games.

This is one of the few post-season teams the Dodgers are superior to defensively, though Philly is better on the bases. Bullpens are tough to fathom here. The Dodgers will probably return Glasnow to the rotation here (did not pitch in Wild Card round), but keep Sheehan and Sasaki for higher leverage situations with a small circle of trust in their normal bullpen. The Philadelphia bullpen has shutdown names, but it never seems to work out that way. Are adding Buehler and Walker really any bit of an upgrade? Wheeler’s absence keeps all four of their remaining starters in the rotation.

However, the day off on Sunday may allow Game One pitchers to return for Game Four. I could see the Phillies doing that with Sanchez on normal rest and moving Nola to the pen, but I wouldn’t expect to the Dodgers to push Ohtani in that manner.

I’m very much aligned with the market for the first game. I want to give both bullpens a bump from their L30 day numbers and will give the Dodgers the a small one, similar to the Wild Card round, but don’t know if the Philadelphia pen deserves one. There is a scenario where all their starters just go seven innings and shove off to Duran with just an inning or so to fill, but you can’t plan on shutting the Dodger offense down for three or four straight, even if they’re all LHPs.

The Phillies may have small base running and home field edges and possibly even an offensive one if they stick with LH starters throughout, but I have to favor a likely improved Dodger pen, surprisingly the Dodger defense and their top notch pitchers. It’s a little frustrating to see the Dodgers as small favorites here, a line I agree with for the series, but if I have to pick a team for the series, it’s going to be the Dodgers, since they’re the only NL team I played to take the league once the post-season was set.

We should have neutral weather in a slightly positive run environment which is extremely friendly to left-handed power (which could also favor the Phillies if they go all LHP). Nestor Ceja is a slightly pitcher friendly umpire, the most pitcher friendly one on the board at least.

With Will Smith expected back, it’s a near neutral running situation for the Phillies against Ohtani. Sanchez is a neutral holder, but Realmuto still has a cannon. Ohtani is the only batter in this game with even a slightly positive pitch run value matchup against the opposing pitcher and he’s ineligible to be used as a hitter.

I really don’t like any of the bats in this game and favor pitching. My fear with Ohtani is still workload, though less so in a series where every manager is going to be edge. At a middle of the board cost, I think he can be useful and perhaps even contrarian here. I think we even be able to say the same about Sanchez, who may be my second ranked pitcher and value on the slate. I think players may still fear the Dodger offense too much and Thompson may favor Sanchez over shakier bullpen arms in earlier tight situations, considering their recent post-season failings.

Bullpen stats L30 days (post-season teams in bold)...

Probably not an extremely accurate picture for these series, which I've tried to outline in each individual game write up. 

Tigers @ Mariners

It’s almost like the Tigers never blew the division. Unfortunately, I have the +270 ticket that says they did. Detroit considered young Troy Melton a potential post-season weapon out of the bullpen, but that wasn’t the case in the one game they lost to Cleveland, as he was smacked around in his appearance. While I’m a bit surprised he gets the start here and wondered if it was just an opening situation, the Tigers only have three real starters right now and Melton’s props suggest around three innings. After all, I don’t think the Tigers want to pitch Montero here.

Despite his 2.76 ERA over 45.2 innings (four starts, many relief appearances), Melton did not pitch nearly that well, unfortunately. His 11.7 K-BB% was a bit below average, while the 49.2 HardHit% was troubling. He only allowed 8.6% Barrels/BBE, which projects a healthy 3.72 xERA, which is in line with his pitch modeling, but more than half a run below any other estimator and I don’t see how he sustains that with just a league average ground ball rate.

While Melton was better against RHBs and held batters from either side below a .290 wOBA, Statcast really blows up LHBs against him (.334 xwOBA). With five LHBs, but a pair of switch hitters, I wonder if the Tigers will bother replacing him with a LHP.

George Kirby struck out 31 of his last 64 batters with a single walk to turn a relatively lost season into a 20.6 K-BB% in the end (actually a career best with 20.1% his lowest mark – CONSISTENCY!) and his career K-BB at home (22.5%) is 4.1 points higher than on the road. While Kirby’s 8.5% Barrels/BBE was right around his career mark (8.2%), his 43.9 HardHit% was a career worst and was actually at least 50% in four of his last five starts. Not as much of a problem if he pitches to his normal home peripherals though.

Considering the contact profile, Kirby’s 3.85 xERA  is his only estimator not at least half a run better than his 4.21 ERA with a .315 BABIP and 71.3 LOB%, neither of which are egregious, but combined are a bit worse than you would expect. LHBs had a .319 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Kirby this year, while RHBs had a .279 wOBA, but .315 xwOBA. At home, those wOBAs drop to .302 and .239. As mentioned during the Wild Card Round, the Detroit offense really struggled in the second half of the season and were a below average road team.

Aside from Skubal, whom the Mariners may come close to matching with Gilbert (who I’m a bit surprised isn’t starting here), Seattle has the overall starting pitching and certainly bullpen edge. I’d probably opt for Castillo over Miller at this point, but would certainly want whichever of the two who does start not to do so on the road. They would be doing the Tigers a favor. Due to the scheduling only one of Kirby or the game two pitcher can come back twice anyway, so starting Gilbert in game two or three wouldn’t really make a difference.

The Mariners certainly have the better offense, but surprisingly poor defense and base running. You have to be concerned about Skubal pitching games two and five (if necessary), but also good about Seattle’s chances in every other game, potentially wrapping it up in four.

For the first game, with temperatures in the 50s, I’d expect the roof to be closed. Considering it’s not a full roof, the weather could still play some part and the average run environment in the 25% of games where the roof is closed over the last three years, Seattle has a massively negative 77 Run Factor, easily lowest in the league. Alex Tosi is a perfectly neutral umpire, which won’t further that at least.

I’m nearly aligned with the market on Game One. The Mariners are healthy favorites. I don’t have them that healthy, but not removed enough to be actionable. Considering these are the only two teams I have to come out of the American League (Tigers placed pre-season, Mariners around trade deadline), I’m disappointed to have this matchup happen here. I have to add Seattle (-165) to the Round Robin and then maybe new underwear if it gets to a fifth game. That makes the divisional round robin Brewers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners and playing three teams with the bye does concern me slightly, but I’ve been told that’s not a real thing to worry about.

Dingler is a strong throwing catcher and while Melton is neutral at holding them, I don’t expect him to be around too long. Kirby and Raleigh present a near neutral running situation, if you dare use bats in this park. Raleigh and Carpenter are the only batters who have even decent pitch run value matchup numbers (remember it doesn’t include handedness or park effects).

Due to the environment, I like bats here even less than in Philly, especially the Detroit side. You can’t play Melton here, while Kirby would be the obvious top arm, which would make me consider fading him for Sanchez and/or Gausman here.

I aim to have content throughout the week if there are enough games.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results.