Tuesday 7/22 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Orioles @ Guardians

Brandon Young has completed five innings and allowed fewer than three runs in just one of his six starts. Pitch modeling likes the arsenal (3.89 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+) and he’s certainly been better than his 7.52 ERA (.372 BABIP, 67.2 LOB%) and 5.90 FIP (70% barrel home run rate), but even then, we’re left with a 4.20 xFIP to 4.65 xERA range. Cleveland may stack the lineup with nine LHBs and they have a .463 wOBA, .369 xwOBA against Young so far this season. When your barrel rate (11.8%) is higher than your K-BB (11.6%), you’re generally not in for a good time at the park.

Joey Cantillo also has some walk (11%) and home run (also seven of 10 barrels) problems, however, he has certainly carried his swing and miss over from the bullpen in a starting role, striking out 18 of 58 with a 14.9 SwStr%. Cantillo has far worse pitch modeling (4.80, 92) with a FIP (4.14) matching his ERA (4.17), but all other estimators below four. And then we have the atrocity that has been the Baltimore offense on the road and against LHP.

I have Cantillo as the far better pitcher here and, in fact, give the Guardians every edge in this game, soe of them substantial. I’m splitting a unit between F5 (-145) and full game (-132) with both bullpens struggling a bit. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.

Tigers @ Pirates

I have to admit that both Casey Mize and Mitch Keller have taken significant steps forward that I didn’t necessarily expect with Keller’s 4.13 SIERA the highest estimator for either, but I think this game is correctly priced and neither does anything for us on Tuesday’s daily fantasy slate, so we move on.

Padres @ Marlins

Stephen Kolek’s 4.24 ERA sits right in between estimators ranging from 4.14 (dERA) to 4.44 (xERA). I am what I am.

Edward Cabrera has struck out 17 of his last 71 batters with just one walk. He had a stretch of three walks in three starts (62 BF) earlier in the season, but has walked either two or three in every other start.

Reds @ Nationals

Chase Burns appeared to the more polished of the two rookie phenoms on the board today, but after striking out eight Yankees without a walk in his debut, the Red Sox looked like they knew what was coming in his second start, walking two of nine without a strikeout. He’s since walked seven of 46, but with 17 strikeouts in Philly and against the Rockies.

Brad Lord made a string of six straight starts in late April/early May, but hasn’t faced more than eight batters since. Is he opening or are they stretching him out again? Also, who cares? 

Red Sox @ Phillies

After a total of 11 innings over four starts bookending an IL stint, Richard Fitts finally went 5.2 innings, striking out six Rockies at Fenway last time out. The short story is that his 4.28 ERA is mostly in line with estimators and pitch modeling likes him (3.64, 104). The strikeout rate is too low (19.6%), but will be hard to keep that way with a 12.5 SwStr%. The contact profile (see chart directly below) is the larger problem.

Cristopher Sanchez has allowed nine runs over his last 49.1 innings and that’s just seven starts.

Love Sanchez. Have him a run and one-third better than Fitts, who I think has some potential. However, the Red Sox have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP that’s 10 points higher than Philadelphia. That may even out with with home/road splits, but the Boston projected lineup is far better than the Philadelphia projected one, even though their team wide defensive numbers are virtually the same and the bullpens are right next to each other on the bottom middle of the board below. Add in Boston’s better base running and I think this line is a bit high.

Yankees @ Blue Jays

Cam Schlittler struck out seven of the 21 Mariners he faced in his debut at Yankee Stadium, while walking two with a barrel and five hard hit batted balls (41.7%). Pitch modeling was conflicting (3.67, 100), but certainly not bad. Both loved the slider (34.7%, 61 PB, 134 P+)However, the 8.0 SwStr% is less exciting. He did sport a 14.1% rate at AAA, where he generated a 26.5 K-BB% this year, but Schlittler is only a marginally regarded prospect (45 Future Value grade) by Fangraphs and has projections around four and a half.

Max Scherzer posted season highs in innings (six), batters faced (24) and strikeouts (eight) in Sacramento last time out. His velocity has crept up with each start so far this season, sitting at a season high 94 mph last time out, generating a season high 16.5 SwStr%. The questions have more been about health than ability for Scherzer the last few seasons and the incredibly stunning thing is that his last start was his worst graded of the season (4.87, 91) and that’s by over a run worse by Bot ERA than any of his other four starts. That’s perplexing and I don’t know what he is right now, though his last start does suggest he may actually be healthy, as long as that lasts.

The matchup that’s impossible to pronounce quickly and I’m not sure what you do here. Seeing as Schlittler is already $8K or more against the least strikeout prone lineup in the league, he’s a fairly easy pass. Scherzer, who is cheaper, might be a bit more interesting because he is cheaper. He’s just outside my top five overall on FanDuel and tied for fifth on DraftKings. I do currently have him as a top five value and with a roof on this place, that probably won’t change much until umpires and lineups, if it does at all.

Angels @ Mets

Kyle Hendricks has a 3.85 xERA because he still manages contact well (35.3 HardHit%) and 3.74 Bot ERA, but only 94 Pitching+ and no other estimator below four and a half. RHBs (.373 wOBA, .324 xwOBA) have hit him better than LHBs (.293, .308) this year.

Frankie Montas is coming off the best of his four starts in Kansas City last time out, striking out five without a walk and just one run through five. The overall numbers aren’t great, but generally half a run to a run better than his 5.03 ERA so far, averaging in the low-mid fours.

Maybe we'll talk about one of these pitchers more in the afternoon, but perhaps not in the pitcher friendly park. Not pitcher friendly enough to make either desirable though. 

Giants @ Braves

Since a five walk, no strikeout performance against the Dodgers, Landen Roupp has started showing signs of life again. He’s allowed six runs (four earned) over 26.1 innings. Some of that is the 87.8% strand rate and single home run, but he’s only allowed five barrels with a 52 GB% and 22.6 K% over this span. The 11.3 K-BB% brings him closer to league average range with just a 35.5 HardHit% on the season. The changeup seems to be the difference of his last five starts though. He’s throwing it more often (22%) with higher Pitching Bot (59) and Pitching+ (102) grades. Roupp’s worst estimator is a 4.29 SIERA and it’s his worst estimator by more than a quarter of a run.

Davis Daniel struck out five of 17 Cardinals in his first start of the season. He has a career 12.1 K-BB% over 47.2 major league innings, spent mostly with the Angels. He’s allowed 9% Barrels/BBE. If there’s anything more to unlock, I trust the Braves more than the Angels, but he has just a 35+ Future Value grade and projections around four and a half.

I generally don’t hate messing with lower priced pitchers facing the Braves on marginal slates. They’re not a juggernaut offense anymore. They haven’t been for a couple of years now. They’re merely been league average this year. I have Roupp as one of three guys essentially tied for fourth best overall arm on FanDuel (it’s light after the top guys) and fourth alone, maybe as the top value on DraftKings for just $7.3K. You have an average strikeout rate that’s trending up, combined with a solid contact profile here.

White Sox @ Rays

I’m not even sure what’s going on here. Roster Resource has Davis Martin coming off the IL to start here, but I can find no corroboration on Twitter and Drew Rasmussen has been acting as a glorified opener over the last month as they try to keep his innings down. He hasn’t reached 55 pitches in three straight.

If there’s anything to update here, I’ll probably do it with bats, as I’m interested in neither pitcher, nor anyone else the White Sox might throw here.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Royals @ Cubs

It may be Central Standard Time in Chicago normally, but it’ll be Mountain Time on Tuesday…Dick Mountain because Rich Hill will be activated to become the oldest starting pitcher in the league. He’s struck out 48 of 192 AAA batters with 25 walks, allowing nine home runs in 42 innings. Not great, except for the strikeouts. He projects around five and it’s baseball, but I don’t know how you could possibly project an outing against the Cubs to go well for him here.

Matt Boyd has allowed just 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 56.1 innings. Sure, the .211 BABIP, 84.7 LOB% and 4.3 HR/FB are all overstating things, but his 18 K-BB% is in line with last season and nearly three points above his career rate and he has really done a great job of knocking the home runs down since his early Detroit days. Perhaps the extra drag on the ball this year has helped, but Boyd’s worst estimator is a 3.85 xFIP. The Royals present a great run prevention opportunity, as they don’t walk and don’t hit for power (don’t look at Monday’s box score), but they also don’t strike out a lot, though a bit more against LHP (21.6%).

Boyd is my number three overall arm and a solid value on either site, though not my top one.

Athletics @ Rangers

J.T. Ginn appears to have just been confirmed around 11pm eastern. He opened the season with four starts, only his first one going a full five innings and has been moved to the bullpen with shorter and shorter outings ever since with an IL stint in between. He’s thrown 55 – 35 – 15 pitches in three July outings with the most recent one furthest right. What are we looking at here? Three innings? If you discount that 80% of his barrels have left the park with a 48.3 HardHit%, he’s been pretty good when he gets the chance (22.7 K-BB%, 51.7 GB%).

Jacob deGrom has posted nine quality starts with two runs or less in his last 11 tries. He’s allowed as may as three runs once during this run and is up to a 20.6 K-BB% on the season with a 22% mark over his last 12 outings. A .233 BABIP and 87.4 LOB% have his 2.32 ERA below estimators ranging from a 2.53 BotERA to a 3.33 SIERA. It’s not even the best version of deGrom we’ve seen, but still pretty great.

DeGrom is my 1A on Tuesday night, but only a decent value, better on DraftKings, where he’s $1.2K less.

Cardinals @ Rockies

Erick Fedde has atrociously posted a 2.8 K-BB% this season, including striking out just one of his last 56 batters with eight walks. A 4.45 Bot ERA is his only estimator not exceeding a 4.83 ERA. We’ll be speaking more about Fedde in the afternoon, no doubt.

Four starts and a couple of relief outings for Bradley Blalock with a 9.97 ERA, due to a .346 BABIP, 50.6 LOB% and 21.4 HR/FB with three-quarters of his barrels leaving the park, but with a 3.0 K-BB%, 9.5% Barrels/BBE and 47.6 HardHit%, it’s not like his underlying numbers are good. His best estimators are a 5.31 SIERA and dERA.

Both of these pitchers stink and the Cardinals have pretty much every other edge, but they have been slumping offensively and have just a 93 wRC+ on the road. I don’t know. If we take the large bullpen edge out of it, should Fedde really be a decent road favorite over anyone? Just a little on the home team (+128) F5.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Astros @ Diamondbacks

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in 16 of 19 starts and 13 of his last 14. He’s allowed more than two runs in just three of his last 15 and has struck out at least nine in four of his last eight starts. He also has a 60.1 GB% (64.2% over his last 13 starts).

So, let me quickly tell you why he’s not very high on my daily fantasy board on Tuesday night.

1 – Park downgrade. Arizona dropped to a more neutral run environment after installing the humidor a few years back, but is now back up to a 107 park run factor with the roof closed, according to Statcast three year factors.

2 – Price. Framber is more than $10K on either site.

3 – Opponent. If Arizona’s 117 wRC+ at home isn’t enough, five of their projected nine are below an 18 K% against LHP this year with an 18.6 K% against southpaws overall.

He’s going to need seven or eight nearly shutout innings at this price with the reduced strikeout opportunities. Not to say he can’t do it, but it’s just not a great value projection.

Eduardo Rodriguez is actually more interesting against a depleted Houston lineup because of his reverse split (RHBs .370 wOBA, .324 xwOBA against him this year). Those aren’t good numbers, but all estimators are well more than a run below his 5.94 ERA (.371 BABIP, 65.7 LOB%, 70% barrel home run rate). There may be some value there for less than $8K. He hasn’t been good, but he has popped nine strikeouts or more four times in 16 starts. It’s anyone’s guess what the Houston lineup may look like by Tuesday. They’re somehow playing better the more guys they lose, but it should include more strikeouts than usual.

Brewers @ Mariners

I’m awed by Jason Misiorowski just like anybody else. He’s one of my top five arms in Seattle, the most negative run environment in the league, where the Mariners strike out in 24.6% of their plate appearances this year. He’s one of the three guys I have tied for fourth overall on FanDuel, mentioned with Roupp earlier. I have him kind of tied for sixth overall on DraftKings, tied with Scherzer.

WHAT?? He struck out 12 Dodgers last time out!

Hang on. There a couple of caution flags here. He costs more than $10K with an 11.2 BB% and a season high 91 pitches against the Dodgers last time out. Is that going to be the new standard or just because they could give him a bit more time off with the break? His previous high was 86 pitches in his second start. The walks will run up the pitch count and he’s running a 42.4 HardHit%. It’s going to be hard for him to consistently get to six innings in less than 90 pitches (just once in his first four starts).

I am very high on one pitcher in this game though. Logan Gilbert is running a career best 29.3 K-BB% by a mile. He is regularly throwing 90 or more pitches, so I can’t understand why he hasn’t completed six innings since his first start. Maybe because 60% of his barrels have left the park? Well, five of his last eight starts have been on the road. Gilbert has a 33.3 K-BB% in 35.1 home innings this year. His worst estimator is a 3.45 Bot ERA (111 Pitching+) and it’s one of only two estimators above three (3.02 xERA).

Gilbert is my 1B to deGrom’s 1A, but one of my favorite values on the board for less than $10K. The six inning outings should be coming with more frequency.

Twins @ Dodgers

Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed more than a single run in only one of his last six starts. It was the only one of those starts he went more than five innings in, while a .179 BABIP, 87.3 LOB% and 4.0 HR/FB are doing almost all the heavy lifting next to a 10 K-BB%, but he’s only allowed four barrels (4.7%) with a 30.2 HardHit%. A 4.12 xERA is the closest estimator to his 3.95 ERA on the season, but this is a guy with 14.9% Barrels/BBE and a 47.8 HardHit% in his first eight starts. Something seems different and it seems to correlate with when he started throwing a splitter. He doesn’t throw it much (8.8% last six starts), but he has used his fastball a bit less over this span and stopped using his changeup completely with a few more sliders and curveballs. Pitching+ doesn’t like the splitter (75), but it’s his best graded PitchingBot pitch (53) with his secondaries generally grading better than his fastball, except for the changeup. The alterations make some sense.

Regular readers probably recognize that I’m generally a bit lower on Yama Yoshi than most others. He’s a very good pitcher. A 19.2 K-BB% is nothing to laugh at and with a 52.9 GB%, he’s only allowed 6.5% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are higher than his 2.59 ERA, but only a 3.72 Bot ERA by more than a run. He’s had a few unearned runs and only been about league average against RHBs (.294 wOBA, .310 xwOBA). Only nine of his 19 starts have been quality starts with two runs or less, while he’s failed to go beyond five innings in eight of his starts. This is a good pitcher, not a great one and he’s generally priced too high, around $10K, as is the case tonight. I do have him as a top five arm (right in that Roupp/Miz grouping) on FanDuel and ahead of the latter and Schezer on DraftKings. I’m just not paying $10K for him.

I wrote up SWR above not because I’m suggesting you roster him against the Dodgers, but because I think this line is elevated significantly at +190. I still have Yamamoto nearly a run and a half better than SWR, while the Dodgers have the offensive edge, though the Twins have been hot, while the Dodgers have not, but the Twins have a significantly better bullpen, by more than two-thirds of a run over the last month. I wouldn’t mind getting into a close, bullpen battle at this price.

We’ll pick up with more detailed daily fantasy notes, most concerning bats on Tuesday afternoon.