Monday 7/21 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Orioles @ Guardians

Ain’t gonna Sugano when we don’t gotta Sugano. I know that’s not the start we wanted after a week and a half away, but not wasting time now will make the rest of it better.

After a seven game stretch with a 21.1 K-BB%, Tanner Bibee is back down to 9.5% in three July starts and just 13.6% on the season. With a .314 BABIP and 64.9 LOB%, he has a 5.12 ERA that’s above estimators below four over his last nine starts.

Tigers @ Pirates

Jack Flaherty has struck out 31 of his last 93 batters faced (15.8 SwStr%). Part of that is a favorable schedule, while he’s also been up about half a mph (93.2). He’s gone 50.1% fastballs over this stretch (47% season).

Paul Skenes has been held to exactly 78 pitches in three of his last four starts without exceeding five innings in any of them. The Pirates have mentioned wanting to lower his workload as the season winds down. One of these years, they might even want to play for something.

Padres @ Marlins

This is one of three spots I’ve had some difficulty finding pitcher confirmation. Roster Resource has Randy Vasquez listed, as does FanDuel, while I can’t find anything supporting or denying this claim. What I did find was a lot of Padres fans overemphasizing Vasquez’s surface stats and making him out to be some pitching staff savior for San Diego this year. He has just a 1.0 K-BB% with near average pitch modeling (see below), but no other non-FIP estimator within two runs of a 3.80 ERA (.248 BABIP, 80 LOB% and only 35% of his barrels turning into home runs), while LHBs have a .365 wOBA, but .417 xwOBA against him this year. Even RHBs are driven up 66 points by xwOBA.

Eury Perez has allowed one run over his last 18 innings, striking out 21 of 60 batters (17.5 SwStr%) with just one walk. He’s completely ditched a seldom used sinker and cut his curveball usage in half from his first four starts, going more fastball (56.7%) and slider (31.7%) heavy, pitches that pitch modeling suggested were back before it really started showing up in the box score. The obvious improvement being in the form of command. You see him up near the top of the pitch matchup ratings below against a San Diego lineup that has been pretty marginal without a positive run value against either pitch offensively.

On just the pitching matchup alone, we could justify a sizeable play on the Marlins (assuming it’s Vasquez), but I’m comfortable even if it’s not because Perez has looked that dominant lately. You factor in that these offenses have been nearly identical home/road and vs RHP (see above) with the Marlins one of the hottest offenses going into and coming out of the break. They’re also pretty evenly matched defensively and in the bullpen, but I’m mostly leaning on Perez here and would rather F5 (-138) with the Marlins conservatively keeping him below 90 pitches in all but one start this year. Back from the break with a bang at 1.5 units. If Vasquez is confirmed, I’m fine playing MIA to go over either their F5 or full game totals (2.5, 4.5). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Reds @ Nationals

Brady Singer has bookended his last four starts with nine strikeouts against both the Yankees and Rockies with a 13.6% and 16.1 SwStr%. The meat in between is just seven strikeouts (Red Sox and Marlins) with a 4.6 SwStr%. There’s not much of a pattern as to why and LHBs exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, a problem against the Nationals.

Jake Irvin has posted a 6.3 K-BB%, allowing 12.8% Barrels/BBE and a 47.4 HardHit% over his last 14 starts with his ERA, FIP and xFIP reaching five. On the season, LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Red Sox @ Phillies

Walker Buehler has not been able to consistently find a mix that works, as he’s now allowed 23 runs (22 earned) over his last 22.1 innings, while striking out just 12 of 111 batters with 17 walks. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while his best estimator is a 4.64 Bot ERA.

I thought Zach Wheeler was beginning his decline phase before the start of the season, but instead, he’s likely on the path towards his first Cy Young. The reason for my theory was his difficulties with LHBs last season (> .300 wOBA & xwOBA). However, LHBs have just a .235 wOBA and .250 xwOBA against him this year that’s lower than RHBs (.251, .252).

Small play on the Phillies to exceed their 4.5 team run total (-115). They have a 118 home wRC+ in a hitter friendly park and the Boston pen has been below average too.

Yankees @ Blue Jays

Carlos Rodon finished the pre-break portion of his season strong, striking out eight of 29 Cubs over eight shutout innings with just four hits and a walk. He’d gone exactly five innings with three walks and four strikeouts in each of his previous two starts. One at Citi Field and one right here in Toronto. I currently have Rodon, the most expensive pitcher on the board on DraftKings, barely inside my top 10 on a 20 pitcher board, though close enough that he could move up a bit with adjustments on Monday. However, the main reason for this is that the Blue Jays project a lineup against LHP (Roster Resource again) with just three batters above a 15 K% against LHP this year.

Conversely, I have Kevin Gausman as my top pitcher and my top higher priced value for less than $9K against a Yankee lineup that projects to include six batters above a 23 K% against RHP this year. Gausman is very much hit or miss and this is nothing near a lock. He’s thrown three games of at least seven innings with a total of one run over his last 10 starts, but still has an ERA and estimators around four over that span. Again, it’s the upside in his workload and strikeouts that are exciting here. It’s very high variance, but he adds a a bit with a great defense and framing too. It doesn’t hurt that a 4.53 dERA is his only estimator above a 4.19 ERA with great pitch modeling a full run lower. Gausman has also posted a 20 K-BB% at home that’s nearly double his mark on the road. The bad news here is that the Yankees have banged him up pretty good in two opportunities with nine walks and just five strikeouts over 41 batters. They barreled him twice in the first outing, but only had one other hard hit batted ball. In the second, they didn’t barrel Gausman at all, but had a 61.1 HardHit%.

Angels @ Mets

With a 25 point rise in BABIP from .258 last year to .283 this year, Tyler Anderson’s 4.34 ERA is more in line with, but still below estimators ranging from a 4.47 xERA to a 5.27 dERA. However, we do have to recognize that he has a career 31.2 HardHit% and has never been above 36.1%, giving more credence to that xERA than higher estimators. It’s still not great, but most teams fail to attack him with LHBs (.432 wOBA, .378 xwOBA), despite his reverse split (RHBs .303 wOBA, .322 xwOBA).

Kodai Senga has faced just 18 major league batters since June 12^th due to a hamstring injury that cost him a month and then the break, so we should still expect some sort of workload limitation here, while the New York bullpen already seems overworked in just three games against the Reds after nearly a week off. Senga has allowed more than two earned runs just once all season (Fenway), but has just six quality starts because of the 10.6 BB%. In fact, his K-BB is down 4.8 points from his 2023 breakout with his 1.39 ERA mostly the product of an 88.7 LOB% and just four of his 13 barrels leaving the year. The park has something to do with that, but he’s still managing contact well (6.4% Barrels/BBE, 38.9 HardHit%), while pitch modeling can’t get much of a handle on the ghost fork (23.7 SwStr% with a 9 wRC+ against). The 3.17 FIP and xERA paint a picture that is certainly more accurate than the ERA, though contact neutral estimators are nearly a run higher.

I’m not sure if the ghost fork does as much to rifle estimators as it does pitch modeling, so I’ve adjusted somewhere in the middle with Senga still coming out a run ahead of Anderson, but the Mets have not hit LHP well this year (92 wRC+) and while I’m never really interested in Anderson from a daily fantasy perspective, I think this line is a bit high (+164). That said, the Angels, while more potent than anyone expected this year, will fill their lineup with a lot of strikeout prone RHBs (seven projected with at least 23.5 K% vs RHP this year), so Senga WOULD be a top three arm for me with a workload of 22 batters or more. Yet, with a top three price tag, still only a moderate value at best and I’m not sure he goes through the lineup more than twice again.

Giants @ Braves

The 11.3 BB% and 10.5 K-BB% in nine starts for Hayden Birdsong are not ideal with a 46.3 HardHit% that isn’t helping the matter. While a 5.24 dERA and 5.26 Bot ERA on the season are very pessimistic, most estimators are between a quarter to half a run above his 4.11 ERA with LHBs owning a .390 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him this year, but RHBs below .300. The crazy thing is, who are the LHBs you fear in the Atlanta lineup this year? Matt Olson and maybe Drake Baldwin? Costing just $6.6K on DraftKings, I think Birdsong is a reasonable SP2 choice in GPPs.

Much of what I said about Birdsong also applies to Bryce Elder. The 11.5 K-BB% and 46.7 HardHit% are very similar. Oddly, with a 51.8 GB% vs Birdsong’s 34.4%, Elder’s xERA is nearly one and one-third runs higher, but the estimators average out to almost the same. Elder is near the bottom of our pitch matchup ratings, though he does have a 100 Pitching+ score. I’m sure both pitchers will show up again in the most extensive daily fantasy notes on bats. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Elder this year. I’m not at all saying not to use bats here, but if you aren’t, Elder is also very cheap and there is only one projected Giant below a 22 K% against RHP this year. I don’t hate either in an SP2 role here.

White Sox @ Rays

I assume we’ll be speaking more about Sean Burke in the afternoon. He did have a nice little 33 inning stretch with an 18.7 K-BB% that’s exactly 10 points higher than his season rate, but his 4.36 ERA and matching bot ERA are well below additional estimators, of which only a 4.81 SIERA is below five.

Following a five start stretch with a 29.3 K% and 14.2 SwStr%, Baz struck out just three of 24 batters at Fenway leading into the break. I don’t hate him on Monday. He’s an upper half of the board arm for me, but doesn’t stand out above his $9K+ price tag for two reasons, even against the White Sox (79 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP). The first is his .342 wOBA and .356 xwOBA against RHBs. The second, even though this has played as a neutral park, the Rays have played less frequently at home as the temperatures have heated up and this may be one of the hottest spots on the board in a park that still has been very generous to right-handed power.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Royals @ Cubs

Since facing the Dodgers, Noah Cameron has allowed two runs over 18.1 innings, but contrary to earlier in his season when results were almost entirely BABIP and strand rate based, he’s struck out 20 of his last 71 batters (13.1 SwStr%) with four walks and just a single barrel (36.2 HardHit%). This was in Seattle and against the Pirates, but also Citi Field against the Mets. I’m not sure what’s inspired the improvement. The pitch modeling is more or less the same (PB a bit worse, P+ a bit better) without a change in pitch usage, but he is throwing five pitches between 15% and 25% of the time and perhaps mixing them up better, confusing opponents. Regardless, he’s not a guy we’re using at Wrigley unless it’s pitcher friendly weather and that doesn’t appear to be the case. 

What we do know is that Ryan Brasier is opening. From there?? Roster Resource has Chris Flexen listed, but I’ve read more speculation about Ben Brown returning via Twitter searches. Either way, the Royals don’t offer much daily fantasy upside with a contact prone lineup. Will update if necessary on Monday if we even get an answer and it matters. It probably won’t much.

Athletics @ Rangers

Over his last 48.2 innings, Jacob Lopez has posted an elite 22.2 K-BB% with a 34.9 HardHit% and just 7.1% Barrels/BBE. The breakout has been a bit hidden by the 25 runs (23 earned) over this period with all nine of his barrels leaving the park, six of them at home and another in Toronto against the top lineup against LHP in the league. While RHBs have a .341 wOBA against Lopez this year, Statcast drops that 30 points with LHBs below .300. There’s a bit of a disconnect with he pitch modeling, though both systems love the slider (31.3%, 58 PB, 114 P+).

Jack Leiter is a late confirmation. Roster Resource originally had deGrom listed. The simple truth is that, much like his father, the younger Leiter has shown flashes early on his career, but his command ultimately ends up betraying him over the longer run. He’s walked 11% of the batters he’s faced (9.0 K-BB%) with 27 barrels (11.4%) and been a bit fortunate that only 10 of them have left the yard. Pitch modeling is a bit better than the 4.37 ERA (see below), but remaining estimators range from a 4.74 SIERA and xFIP to a 5.11 dERA. While these two pitchers have similar ERAs, their true skill levels right now appear to be miles apart.

I love the A’s (+124) in this spot. In fact, this is the first time all season I’ve endorsed more than a unit in more than one spot. Not only do I have Lopez half a run better, but the A’s have been massively better than the Rangers offensively, as you can see above, and have more than half a run bullpen edge over the last 30 days too. The Rangers have a substantial defensive edge and are at home, but that’s it. The A’s even have the better base running numbers too. Lopez is also a top five arm for me on Monday night and a great value for less than $8K. Leiter also has enough upside to be considered for an SP2 spot in a decent environment too.

Cardinals @ Rockies

Opposing pitchers at Coors have been a nice roster this year because the Rockies have a sub-85 wRC+ at home and against RHP and are above a 24 K% in those spots too. McGreevey is cheap (< $7K) and has struck out 16 of 73 batters with three walks. Listen to this schedule so far…Mets, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs. What can you decipher from that? He’s the ninth ranked prospect in the org. (Fangraphs) with a 45 Future Value grade. He posted a 20.6 K-BB% at AAA this year, which is about 50% higher than last year (14.6%), his second season at the level. I guess he’s fine here, but think Lopez is the most interesting low priced pitcher. McGreevey is more an ownership play.

Hi Austin Gomber! I have no doubt we’ll be talking much more about you, or at least the batters you’ll be facing, tomorrow.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Astros @ Diamondbacks

Things started interesting for Colton Gordon, but his strikeouts have been dropping by the start: 3-7-6-4-5-5-4-4-3-2-1. Tough park to pitch in, even with the roof closed (106 Park Run Factor) against a dangerous contact prone offense, even without Marte, who may even be back by Monday.

So, Zac Gallen struck out 19 of 49 Giants and Padres and the clown show on MLB Network started talking about the ransom the Diamondbacks are going to collect at the deadline. The Angels pounded him for six runs in his last start before the break. He’s allowed 11.6% Barrels/BBE with a 46.7 HardHit% this year and while he doesn’t have an estimator within half a run of his 5.40 ERA (66.1 LOB%), Gallen also doesn’t have an estimator below four. And somehow, the more Astros hit the IL, the better they play.

Brewers @ Mariners

After posting a 14.2 K-BB% in 25.1 AAA innings with reduced velocity, it might be an understatement to say that expectations were tempered for Brandon Woodruff’s debut. The velocity did improve a mph, but is still down three full mph from his career rate and last MLB season, yet he struck out eight of 20 Marlins and followed it up with 10 of 18 Nationals. Not the top of the league, but he hasn’t walked a batter and mixed up his pitchers so he wasn’t throwing anything more than one-third of the time. A few more caveats apply. First, he sat 93.2 mph in his first start before dropping to 92.4 mph in his second start. He’s not going to sustain a 24.5 CStr% and a 12.6 SwStr% is more good than great, while he only threw 70 and 81 pitches. Perhaps he gets up to 90 here and he gets to pitch in the most negative run environment in the league where the Mariners have a 24.4 K% this year. I do currently have Woodruff as a top three arm, but he’s also a really expensive pitcher and I don’t expect him to sustain this kind of performance. He’s probably adequately valued at best.

George Kirby struck out more than five for just the second and third time this season in his last two starts. His 19.8 K-BB% is now still a career low, but 20.5% in his rookie year was his career high. He strangely has a lower K-BB at home this year (17.7%) than on the road, but it’s still a small sample. Perhaps he doesn’t feel like the same pitcher yet because of a career high 42.4 HardHit% and 3.50 Bot ERA. His 109 Pitching+ is only second worst of his career. I have Kirby towards the back end of the top five arms tonight, but the problem is that the Milwaukee lineup has suddenly turned into Murderer’s Row since acquiring…Andrew Vaughn? Kirby’s 4.50 ERA is still more than two-thirds of a run above all of his estimators with eight of his 13 barrels leaving the yard and a 70.6 LOB%, but he’s more floor than ceiling with great control and costs more than $9K. The Brewers are up to a 109 wRC+ on the road and 102 wRC+ vs RHP and are below a 21 K% in both spots. I don’t love it.

Twins @ Dodgers

I hate to end on a short one, but we’re not using Davis Festa in Dodger Stadium (although all of his estimators are at least half a run below his 5.25 ERA with slightly above average pitch modeling) and I’m not even sure what’s going on with Shohei Ohtani right now. He’s worked his way up to three innings in his last start on 36 pitches. If he gets to 50, are we sure that’s more than three innings? Is he even rosterable as a pitcher? Who’s pitching after him? Is it still Ben Casparius, who started the season like an All-Star, but crashed as soon as they mentioned stretching him out to start, though they didn’t even really do that.

Be back in the afternoon with more extensive daily fantasy notes.