Ten games to start the week, while the pitching leaves a bit to be desired on this slate. We’ll continue with the updated format, including graphics this week. I’m likely going to miss Tuesday, but will use whatever time I have to that afternoon to finish up the project I’ve been working on, which will have it’s own explanatory post (hopefully also Tuesday).
You post positive results. You jinx yourself. After a strong March/April, I had my best Closing Line Value week of at least the season if not ever, gaining $3.65 and 58.3% on moneylines only, endorsed the night before right here or on Action Network (follow Rocky Jade). Ten games gained at least 3.79% on their own with nine over 4.0%.
The results? 4-5-1 and -3.4 units, wiping out most of the previous month’s profit.
We move on.
All stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Dodgers @ Marlins
Ben Casparius has a high of 13 batters faced and 54 pitches last time out, so it may be just four innings if he’s efficient here. He has posted an incredibly impressive 23.5 K-BB% in mostly multi-inning stints with just a 25.4 HardHit%. Only makes sense to try and stretch him out with the entire arsenal popping, but mostly the cutter he’s increased from 3.1% to 19.1% usage this season (64 PitchingBot grade, 133 Pitching+). He lands with a soft spot in Miami.
DEF: -3
BSR: -2
The Dodgers smoked Sandy Alcantara for a season high seven runs on a season high five walks last time out, but it wasn’t going well prior to that either. Through six starts, he has two more walks than strikeouts (1.7 K-BB%) with a 46.4 HardHit% that’s more than six points higher than any number he’s posted for the Marlins. The only good news is a career high 53.8 GB%. His velocity is down from his Cy Young season, but less than a mph. A recent Fangraphs article on him, mentioned a drop in his release angle, but the stuff has been pretty pedestrian too. A 4.16 Bot ERA and 98 Pitching+ are not terrible, but when the former is a run higher than he’s ever generated and the latter his worst mark by more than 10 points, there are some problems there.
DEF: -10
BSR: 3
I feel like Sandy Alcantara is still running on reputation here. Casparius should see a drop off in longer outings, but he can afford a large one and still be ahead of the pack. In fact, I don’t see any aspect of this game where the Marlins come close to the Dodgers. I’ll side with the Dodgers F5 (-138).
Guardians @ Nationals
Luis L. Ortiz broke a string of three straight starts with at least eight strikeouts when he struck out five of 23 Twins, pitching into the seventh inning without allowing a run last time out. He seemed to have some success elevating the fastball, but pitch modeling considers it, by far, his weakest offering (36 PB, 73 P+) and also a pitch the young Nationals handle well (0.71 wFA/C is top five in the league). The Twins whiffed on just two of Ortiz’s fastballs.
DEF: -2
BSR: 0
If you’re going to drop two mph and lose your curveball (91 P+ for the outing), don’t do it against the Dodgers, who tagged Jake Irvin for eight runs with more barrels and walks (three each) than strikeouts (two). This pushes Irvin’s ERA and estimators all above four, though his 3.46 Bot ERA remains optimistic.
DEF: -5
BSR: 0
Not much to see here Not an interesting matchup and not on the main daily fantasy slate.
Below, pitcher strikeouts and swinging strike rates.
Padres @ Yankees
Since striking out just eight of his first 40 batters, Nick Pivetta has struck out 31 of 93 batters (28 K-BB%) with a fastball, sweeper and curve leading an arsenal that boasts a 2.52 Bot ERA and 114 Pitching+ over that span. The slider has been the one pitch the Yankees have really struggled with (-0.3 wSL/C). The fastball is averaging over 20 inches of iVB this year.
DEF: -6
BSR: -2
Carlos Rodon is now up to a 20.1 K-BB% with all estimators within half a run of his 3.43 ERA and a 3.79 FIP the only one above it with all six of his barrels leaving the yard so far. Rodon’s 39.8 HardHit% is his lowest in a Yankee uniform, though still less than two points off his highest. Rodon is also up a mph to 95.3 over his last three starts, sitting where he did last year after starting the season at reduced velocity. Ironically, the arsenal grades slightly worse than last year (4.13 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+). While RHBs are still above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Rodon since last year, they’re at just a .237 wOBA this season with a 20.5 K-BB%.
DEF: 6
BSR: 0
The Padres have just a 9.0 K-BB% against LHP. They don’t strike out much, which makes is very dangerous to roster pitchers against them, especially considering Rodon costs at least $9.5K now in a dangerous park. Pivetta is even more expensive and I have a couple of pitchers ahead of each of them. That said, the way both have been pitching, I’m not too keen on attacking them, even with the mighty Yankee offense, though Judge is never truly out of play.
Reds @ Braves
One start after tying a season high with eight strikeouts and no walks, Brady Singer went right back to walking three for the third time in four starts with a single digit SwStr%. With a .244 BABIP, his 3.24 ERA is a bit below estimators and allowing 10.5% Barrels/BBE is going to be a problem on most days, but his 4.17 dERA is the only estimator above four. The pitch modeling is a bit worse than that (4.42 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+) with the slider (51 PB, 108 P+) the only pitch grading well. LHBs are within two points of a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
DEF: 0
BSR: 2
A.J. Smith-Shawver is riding a solid 15.1 K-BB% through four starts, but with eight barrels (14.5%). He seems to throw a lot of fastballs (49 PB, 93 P+) right down the pipe and get away with it. The new splitter (35.6%, 61 PB, 109 P+) seems to be his one above average pitch. The Reds have been the best offense in the league against fastballs (1.09 wFA/C), but second worst against splitters (-3.51 wFS/C), despite a much more limited sample. In 23.1 innings since last season, RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Smith-Shawver.
DEF: 7
BSR: 2
AJSS is cheap enough where I can see a gamble on his upside on this slate with temperatures expected to be below normal in Atlanta on Monday night, but I’m also going to happily stack up some bats against these pitchers too.
Now here's a look at team bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.
Giants @ Cubs
Since striking out at least eight in three of his first four starts, Landon Roupp has struggled against the Brewers and in San Diego (8 IP – 13 H – 9 R – 8 ER – 1 HR – 6 BB – 6 K – 42 BF). The good news is that Roupp still isn’t allowing hard contact (four barrels all season with a 26.7 HardHit%), though the SwStr has gone from 15.5% over his first four starts to 6.5% in his last two. Curveball grades were down significantly in these two starts as well. The Cubs are going to be a tough offense to right the ship against, but he may have the weather in his favor and he still doesn’t have an estimator reaching four.
DEF: 1
BSR: 5
The contact profile has been there (four barrels, 34 HardHit%), even if the K-BB% (11.7%) is significantly down from his cup of coffee with the Guardians last year. Even with a .330 BABIP, an 80.8 LOB% is why is 2.70 ERA is at least a run below most estimators. However, the velocity is up and the pitch modeling is either on par (97 Pitching+) or better (4.23 Bot ERA) than 2024, which still leaves him in league average territory at best.
DEF: 7
BSR: 2
I can see taking a chance that Roupp finds his feel again in pitcher friendly conditions at Wrigley (not wind, but temperature) for less than $8K. Under the same conditions, against a struggling Giants offense, I believe Boyd to be a solid value and potentially one of the top pitchers on the board. There should be some strikeouts her for him.
White Sox @ Royals
Shane Smith has been the most impressive of the no-name White Sox starting rotation. Yet, even then, a .247 BABIP and single home run on five barrels are propping up his 2.23 ERA. The 10.5 K-BB% and 44.4 HardHit% have non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a 4.48 xFIP. Pitch modeling likes the fastball (59 PB, 111 P+), a pitch the Royals are bottom five in the league against (-0.82 wFA/C). You can see in the sneak preview below that Smith has the best matchup today in terms of pitch run values (his and opponents). Note that the White Sox have not let him eclipse 83 pitches this season and batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA around 50 points higher than actual results.
DEF: -1
BSR: -3
Coming off three consecutive starts with double digit strikeouts, Cole Ragans ran into trouble against Detroit (five runs, three walks, 50% hard hit rate), despite striking out eight of 21 batters. Then, last time out, the Rockies dropped four runs on him and only struck out four times over three innings, while Ragans was down two mph. The Royals pulled Ragans and skipped him a start with a groin issue. At least there’s something to attribute the struggles to. With a .338 BABIP and 66.9 LOB%, Ragans has a 4.40 ERA that’s at least one and two-thirds runs above all estimators, though his 3.79 Bot ERA is a bit above last year, while a 107 Pitching+ is a bit lower.
DEF: 5
BSR: 0
A healthy Ragans is the top pitcher on the slate no questions asked and against the White Sox, I’d be willing to take that chance. He may be okay even if he’s out of rhythm (though they’d obviously pull him if he were hurt). While Smith has a great pitch arsenal matchup (the best stuff he throws is what the Royals are worst at hitting), the lack of upside in strikeouts and workload scares me off. Just one projected Kansas City bat reaches a 20 K% against RHP since last year. I may have some interest in this total, depending upon how umpires/lineups/weather shakes out. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Astros @ Brewers
Ronel Blanco is running an ERA and FIP around five with just a single quality start on the season. While he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (33.8%), a 32.1 GB% means he’s still allowing 10% Barrels/BBE with a 4.5 point reduction in K-BB from last season to 10%. The crazy thing is that Blanco’s BABIP is still only up 20 points from last season to .240. Blanco generated a 22.6 SwStr% against the Tigers, but just six strikeouts and has had an extra few days off. I’ve read some positive reviews on his slider, but that doesn’t translate to pitch modeling (32 PB, 87 P+) or actual results.
DEF: 4
BSR: 2
Manager Pat Murphy mentioned pulling Tobias Myers after 11 batters in his last start to send a message about control issues. Myers has walked seven of 34 batters with six strikeouts, but I don’t think this is a thing you can embarrass pitchers into improving. It hasn’t been good. His pitch grading is awful (5.76 Bot ERA, 72 Pitching+), but Myers is coming off a respectable rookie season (16 K-BB%, 38.2 HardHit%).
DEF: 0
BSR: -1
Right now, you have to attack Myers until he turns it around. If he turns it around. Blanco’s another cheap pitcher in a reasonable spot. I updated my park factors this weekend and according to Statcast Milwaukee is firmly in pitcher friendly territory (92 run factor roof closed, 94 roof open). LHBs have a .303 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Blanco since last year though, so Brewers from that side of the plate remain in play.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Carmen Mlodzinski will generate some ground balls (48.9%), but with a single digit K-BB% and 40% hard hit rate. He hasn’t struck out more than four since his second start (also against the Cardinals) and hasn’t exceeded five innings in a start. Estimators range widely from a 3.52 FIP to a 5.07 xERA, but nowhere near his 6.58 ERA (.398 BABIP, 63.3 LOB%). Batters from either side are between a .298 and .326 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, while pitch modeling is optimistic (3.58 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+) with the slider (69 BP, 133 P+) leading the way. It has just a 7.3 SwStr%, but 57.5 GB%.
DEF: 4
BSR: 1
Miles Mikolas hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts (11.1 innings), despite striking out just six of 46 batters with four barrels and a 43.2 HardHit%. Contact neutral estimators rise above five, yet with a 43 HardHit% and 9.0% Barrels/BBE, his 4.22 xERA is below his actual 4.60 ERA with just a 13.4 K%. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .326 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and pitch modeling is just a bit below average.
DEF: 9
BSR: -2
I don’t know what you do with this game. I’m certainly not on pitchers, even with temperatures around 60 turning this into a pitcher friendly environment. Mlodzinski doesn’t really get smoked too often and you really need a strong spot to stack Pirates. Blegh.
And now, before I finish up on Monday, a little sneak preview of the project I've been working on this weekend. I'm looking at pitch modeling and pitch run values for both pitchers and opposing offenses and trying to blend them into something that tells us which matchups are more favorable than others. A larger explanation is coming and do keep in mind that all stats below are rate stats without regard to sample sizes. The next to last column is pure run values (for and against), while the last attempts to blend in pitch modeling.
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Griffin Canning has allowed more than two runs just once in six tries (in Sacramento, the new Coors), but has only one quality start because the only thing the Mets haven’t taught pitchers is too go deep into games. The 12.9 K-BB% is 4.2 points up from last year, in league average territory, but below his career rate. His results based estimators are all below four, the exception being a 4.27 Bot ERA that’s still the best of his career, while a 98 Pitching+ is in line with career values. With a career best 51.2 GB% (previous high 42.7%), Canning has turned a 46 HardHit% into just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. Although he's had some strong performances that have involved the fastball and it is up above 94 mph in each of the last two starts after having averaged below that in each of his first four starts, pitch modeling still sees the heater as the bane of his profile (35 PB, 75 P+). However, slider (55, 110) and changeup (58, 117) have improved. Canning has made some mechanical and plan of attack changes that have led to improvement in some areas, but no team can teach an 84.6 LOB%.
DEF: -10
BSR: 4
Ryne Nelson takes Corbin Burnes’ spot in the rotation having pitched much better than his 5.82 ERA out of the bullpen (21.9 K-BB%, 48.4 LOB%). Nelson went on a run in July and August of last year, including a 21.9 K-BB% over 11 starts in which he bumped his fastball usage to 61.9% and elevated it, returning a 61 PB grade and 109 Pitching+. His grades on the pitch this year are 61 and 121 out of the pen. Like Canning, Nelson has allowed a lot of hard contact (46.9%), but few barrels (2.0%), though he actually has a below average ground ball rate. Nelson did throw 68 pitches in an outing last week against these Metes and should be good for close to five innings, but not entirely a full workload.
DEF: 3
BSR: 3
I’ve just learned that these last two games are not included on the FanDuel main slate, which will have two troubled weather spots (Washington and New York), rather than just the latter on FanDuel. The roof is open in Arizona tonight, which generally means a reduction in offense, but according to the latest Statcast Park Factors (three year), a four percent increase above average. Canning is cheap enough on DraftKings ($7.2K) to consider, but Arizona is a team we generally don’t want to attack (119 wRC+, 15.7 HR/FB v RHP, 5.1 K-BB% at home). Neither pitcher is likely to pitch deep into this game.
Mariners @ Athletics
Bryce Miller noted his back locking up on him after walking five Angels last time out, but what about the four Red Sox the start before or his 14.7 BB% on the season. Has his back been a problem all along? Then we have the issue of going from Seattle (the most pitcher friendly park in the league) to one that has played like Coors so far (125 Run Factor). This year, Miller’s road K-BB (10.8%) is better than his home K-BB (7.8%), but still below his K-BB on the road last year (11.2%) and for his career (13.7%). LHBs away from Seattle have a .419 wOBA against Miller and .360 for his career. His velocity is down over a mph and tied for a season low 93.9 mph last time out, while his pitch modeling has cratered on nearly every pitch (4.91 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+).
DEF: -1
BSR: 2
Luis Severino failed to record at least two sixth inning outs for the first time this season, going just five innings in Texas last time out. He was pulled after 93 pitches, despite one run, but a lot of traffic (eight hits, one walk). The 11.0 K-BB% is below average, but not the only problem in that number if you look at the pitcher strikeout chart above. He’s not missing bats (7.0 SwStr%), he’s not generating ground balls (39.4%) or limiting hard contact (43.7%). So, how the hell has he allowed just seven barrels (5.2%)? Severino doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator within two-thirds of a run of his 3.30 ERA (.260 BABIP) and his velocity has dropped in three consecutive starts (97.2 – 96.3 – 95.8 – 95.3), which is perhaps why he was pulled earlier than usual and might be something to watch tonight. Overall, Severino’s pitch modeling is similar to last year (3.77 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+). LHBs have a .318 wOBA against Severino this year, but a .334 wOBA and .337 xwOBA since last year.
DEF: -11
BSR: 0
It doesn’t reach 80 degrees with the wind blowing in around 13 mph from the left field pole, but I still think bats are the way to go here. I’m attacking both pitchers with LHBs.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season (in first chart)
DEF Projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Team Runs Prevented in first chart)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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