A shorter Saturday post with just a few games and some experimentation. All the information you’re used to seeing here, but maybe in a different place plus more.
All stats are through Thursday. Legend at bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Let's start with a March/April recap. A nice opening month, though I've had some issues with AN tracking this year. They missed a half unit profit early in the week, but since the post didn't go through, I won't count it.
Astros @ White Sox
While we’re not going to accept a 1.22 ERA as truth (84.5 LOB%, 3.6 HR/FB), Hunter Brown is cementing himself as one of the top pitchers in the American League. With a 24.6 K-BB% and 31 HardHit%, he doesn’t have an estimator reaching three with a vastly improved arsenal (3.03 Bot ERA, 119 Pitching+).
DEF: 5
BSR: 1
Davis Martin’s 3.24 ERA also leaves a bit to be desired because four of his 16 runs have been unearned. His 49.1 HardHit% matches his 49.1 GB%, but he’s still allowed nine barrels with just a 7.1 K-BB%. His estimators range from a 4.36 dERA to a 6.13 xERA. Pitching+ doesn’t hate him (97), but PitchingBot seems to like him more (3.67 Bot ERA).
DEF: -9
BSR: 0
I really didn’t go deep on the pitchers here because this is more about the weather, below 50 degrees again with a strong wind, though I can’t tell which way it will blow. Either way, I’d expect pitcher friendly weather with two below average offenses and a great defense and pen on Houston’s side, just like Friday, persuading me to go with under 8 (-108).
Now, let me explain to you what you see above that's different. The defensive number is for the projected lineup (Fielding Run Value). That's because the other number (Team Runs Prevented), along with opposing wRC+ and bullpen info for the last 30 days will be shown in the images below. These numbers are through Thursday. We'll see if I have time to update on Saturday. Pitcher Hm/Rd FIP is incorrect too. That should read 2024+. This is where you're getting your team defensive Runs Prevented and Opposing Team wRC+ from going forward though.
Rockies @ Giants
Ryan Feltner’s estimators are all below his 4.73 ERA, including a 3.13 xERA with just 4.1% Barrels/BBE. The 9.6 K-BB% is not ideal, but with 48.5% of his contact on the ground, the problem is not immediately identifiable, which probably means it’s Coors. Good news is he’s not pitching there today. In fact, he gets a massive park shift and in the two road starts where he hasn’t faced the Dodgers, Feltner has allowed a total of three runs.
DEF: 1
BSR: 2
Jordan Hicks’ 6.12 ERA is even further away from estimators that don’t exceed four. Like Feltner, he has just a 9.6 K-BB%, but with even more ground balls (56.4%) with just five barrels. His overall contact is much harder though (47.5%), which explains the 3.95 xERA, but not the actual results (.343 BABIP, 58.9 LOB%). The velocity has fallen the last couple times out, but he’s still maintaining elite pitch grades with a lot of ground balls.
DEF: -1
BSR: 0
Both pitchers are due positive regression, but again, I’m playing a total (under 8.5 -122) based mostly on environment. It’s projected to be in the 50s in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon and look at the offenses in the chart above. The Giants also boast top 10 pen estimators L30 days.
And here's something else pretty for you to look at. In the CStr (called strikes) column, red means elite. Maybe not sustainable. In the K/SwStr column, red also means outside a sustainable range with very few exceptions (Bartolo Colon, Adam Wainwright), while green means the pitcher should experience an increase in strikeouts, but don't expect too much at the lowest SwStr% levels and there are few exceptions here as well (Tyler Anderson).
Athletics @ Marlins
Osvaldo Bido has struck out three of his last 72 batters. Remarkably, eight of the 10 runs he allowed over that span were in a single start against the Rangers. The two one run outings were against the White Sox though. The contact profile is a bit below average too (9.2% Barrels/BBE, 39.4 HardHit%) with all estimators more than half a run above his 4.31 ERA for the season.
DEF: -7
BSR: 0
Max Meyer is coming off his worst start of the season in Seattle, but that’s no longer a head scratcher against what’s been one of the best offenses in the league this season. He walked four with six strikeouts, snapping a four game quality start streak. Leading with the slider (50.1%, 57 PB, 114 P+), Meyer has more than doubled his K-BB (25.4%) with a 56.1 GB%, which more than makes up for his 48.2 HardHit%, having allowed just five barrels. A 3.49 xERA and 3.36 Bot ERA are his only estimators above three.
DEF: 0
BSR: 1
I can’t understand the Marlins only being -140 F5 with this pitching matchup. Meyers has been more than two runs better than Bido and no amount of offensive gap (15 points of wRC+ v RHP) can make that up, especially when you’re dealing with such a wide offensive gape too.
Last pretty graphic for today. Should be self-explanatory. All Statcast.
Cubs @ Brewers
Jameson Taillon has allowed nine runs over his last 29.1 innings with a 15.7 K-BB% (12.2 SwStr%) and 37.3 HardHit%. He has a 3.40 FIP/3.77 xFIP/3.23 Bot ERA/105 Pitching+ over that span. With a poor first start in Arizona, his season numbers are a bit worse than that, but he’s shut down some quality offenses, including the A’s, Padres, Diamondbacks again and Phillies.
DEF: 5
BSR: 1
Jose Quintana has been preventing runs (three over 23.1 innings), but is neither missing bats (7.5 K-BB%, 5.9 SwStr%), nor preventing hard contact (47.1 HardHit%). He does have just a 33.3 HardHit% over his last two starts, but it’s still a tough buy. His K-BB% was 2.5 points higher with a hard hit rate nearly 10 points lower when he was beating estimators last year. The 93.8 LOB% with just one of his five barrels leaving the park are not sustainable. His sinker (now at 48.7%) is down half a mph to 90.3 with only marginal pitch modeling (4.44 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+). His 1.14 ERA will regress towards estimators mostly in the lower to mid four range.
DEF: -4
BSR: 6
We have one pitcher actually pitching well, while another is getting by with smoke and mirrors. Not to mention the Cubs hitting the stuffing out of the ball with a better defense and great base running too. There should be a favorite here and it should be the Cubs, but I probably wouldn’t go much higher than the current line (-108).
Sorry, no more pretty pictures, but I do have something else I'm working on that I hope to unveil within the next week or so.
Dodgers @ Braves
Through six starts, Roki Sasaki has generated just a 1.8 K-BB% without striking out more than four. He’s also allowed seven barrels (9.9%) with a 46.5 HardHit% and league average ground ball rate. Every estimator (including his Bot ERA) is at least a run and two-thirds above his 3.55 ERA. This is despite an elite splitter (37.1%, 80 raw PitchingBot stuff, 114 Stuff+) that he just can’t command or set up properly (38 PB, 92 P+). While he has held RHBs to a .282 wOBA, batters from either side exceed a .350 xwOBA.
DEF: -1
BSR: 1
Against the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks with the outside ones on the road, Spencer Schwellenbach has been lit for 13 runs (11 earned) in 17.2 innings with a decreased 13.9 K-BB%, but 12.4 SwStr%. He’s also allowed a 46.8 HardHit%. The first thing to note is how difficult that schedule is in terms of strikeouts, while also noting he previously pitched well in San Diego and against the Phillies. Also, a 3.71 xERA is his only estimator above three and a half, while pitch modeling grades his arsenal, which includes six pitches thrown at least 9.9% of the time, elitely (2.68 BotERA, 118 Pitching+).
DEF: 6
BSR: 0
By estimator averages, Schwellenbach has been the better pitcher by more than two runs, while the Dodgers are below average offensively on the road (see chart above). Will these gaps be present a month or two from now? They don’t have to be this large for the F5 (ATL -116) to be off. In fact, it’s moved to -140 since posting on Action Network (follow RockyJade) on Friday night.
Add comment
Comments