Had an amazing day of closing line value on Thursday:
Cubs 0.26 5.25% - Minor sweat in the 8th when Swanson whiffed on a double play ball with one on, no out and a three run lead.
Cards 0.2 4.75% - Liberatore exited after 3+ w/ 2 runners on after rain delay and reliever loaded ‘em and let ‘em all score.
Rays (F5) 0.23 3.79% - Blown with two outs in the fifth
They tell me these CLV thingamajigs are supposed to be good for you.
Also have some ideas I’m going to work on this weekend and one may be really fun. My hope is that:
- It actually works
- It won’t be too much to display
- It saves some time going forward
Either way, expect positive change next week.
April records coming on Monday or perhaps in a short weekend post.
A large, but standard 12 game daily fantasy slate on Friday with no afternoon games starts now.
Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Nationals @ Reds
Mitchell Parker followed up two great starts (14 IP – 51 BF – 5 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 3 BB – 10 K) with an awful one (5 – 26 – 7 -6 – 0 – 5 – 0). The curveball (36 PitchingBot, 56 Pitching+ for the game) couldn’t find the plate, yet a .217 BABIP still affords him a 2.65 ERA more than a run below all estimators.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 4.22
BSR: 1
So Hunter Greene has already allowed 10 barrels (10.9%) after just 19 all last year (5.2%) and his hard hit rate has jumped back up to 2023 levels (44.6%), but with a 25.9 K-BB% more than five points higher than his career rate, it’s not really that big a deal. You’d like to see better than a 28.3 GB% in this park, but he’s pitching deep into games and missing bats without free passes. LOL at the 4.58 dERA that’s more than a run above any other estimator.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 4/5
B30: 4.86
BSR: -1
The Reds have played 32 games and 15% of their runs were scored in one game.
Padres @ Pirates
Dylan Cease has recorded sixth inning outs in just two starts and failed to complete five in half of them. His walk rate isn’t necessarily up and he won’t sustain the .388 BABIP, while the pitch modeling remains solid (3.41 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+), even if not as good as last year.
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.29
BSR: 1
Four quality starts in six attempts for Mitch Keller, but his 3.97 ERA is more than a quarter run below all non-FIP estimators with just two of eight barrels leaving the yard. LHBs are within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+:105
DEF: 2/0
B30: 4.24
BSR: -1
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
In four starts since getting smoked in the Bronx, Merrill Kelly has posted a 19.1 K-BB% with just four barrels (6.6%), but his hard hit rate remains in the upper 40s.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -1/3
B30: 3.76
BSR: -1
The strikeouts have trailed off (just 22 of 99 since his second start), but four of Jesus Luzardo’s last five have been quality starts with two runs or less with just three barrels and a 35.2 HardHit%. Luzardo has not had a hard hit rate below 39% since Oakland and only once has been below 9% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 79
DEF: 1/-1
B30: 3.89
BSR: 3
I’m not sure what’s going on with Arizona’s offense against LHP. I mean, Marte wasn’t the entire offense.
Royals @ Orioles
Mr. Changeup Michael Wacha is the proud author of his first quality start of the season last time out, pitching six shutout innings at the Astros, striking out six. After beginning the season at 92.5 mph over his first three starts, he’s seemed to warm up, averaging 93.9 mph over his last three, which would put him in line with last year’s velocity increase from the previous year. Regardless, the changeup is the star of his game and earned the top PitchingBot grade in the league for a starter (79) last year. It’s down to a still elite 67 this year, also going from a 142 Pitching+ to 121. The interesting thing is that the changeup velocity has not changed with the fastball velocity, so perhaps that extra gap helps him. With just a 10.4 K-BB%, Wacha is holding down a 3.84 xERA with a 32.3 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.92
BSR: 2
Dean “Barrels” Kremer has allowed 14 of them (12.6%) with all estimators well above four and a half. Since last season, LHBs have a .333 wOBA and .341 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: -7/-2
B30: 4.10
BSR: -2
We’ve quickly reached the daily fantasy portion of our programming. Use your competent Royals bats against Kremer because even RHBs bump up to a .332 xwOBA (43 points higher than actual) since the start of 2024. The O’s defense stinks and the bullpen has been worse than projected. Wacha is a decent value in the $7K range, but with limited upside and not one of my favorite plays.
Rays @ Yankees
The 15 K-BB% is not the problem, though Ryan Pepiot has struck out five or fewer in half his starts and he has the talent to be better. The problem is in the contact profile (10% Barrels/BBE, 41 HardHit%). It is unfortunate that 80% of his barrels have left the yard, but he’s only getting out of Steinbrenner Park to play on the same field up north with temperatures warming up. A positive development is that Pepiot has given up the cutter for more sliders, which is the better graded of the two pitches (57 PB, 115 P+).
Opp wRC+: 132
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.88
BSR: -1
While Pepiot may still be looking for it, make no mistake, Max Fried has found it. And by “it’ I mean that since his first obligatory stinker of the season, Fried has posted a 17.2 K-BB% with just seven barrels (7.7%). With half his contact on the ground (which is actually a career low) Fried’s worst estimator is a 3.79 xFIP.
Opp wRC+: 73
DEF: 4/6
B30: 3.64
BSR: 1
If a baseball season is six months, I may take one or two big favorites a month and it’s not even as if there’s a massive pitching edge in this one, although I have Fried a bit more than half a run better. It’s the offensive gape (NYY 153 Hm wRC+, 162 L7 days – TBR 84 Rd, 80 L7 days on top of the numbers above). The Yankees basically double the Rays wRC+ and are likely putting a much better defensive product on the field in this one. I like F5 (-180) more than the full game and probably wouldn’t go too much higher than that.
In terms of daily fantasy, you can use Yankee bats (or mainly Judge) against anybody and I would be hesitant in rostering any pitchers against them, never mind inconsistent ones. Fried is adequately priced near the $10K mark as a workload and run prevention guy over strikeouts, but you’re obviously fading Tampa Bay bats here.
Guardians @ Blue Jays
If I’m being honest, I thought Logan Allen would have been out of the rotation by now, but going into his last start, he’d allowed a single earned run over his last 16 innings with a 15.2 K-BB%, but when he blows up, he really blows up. The bread sandwiching those starts each produced more walks than strikeouts and 11 runs against the Padres and Red Sox and either way he’s allowing barrels (10 of them overall). Note that the strong starts, all of which ended before six innings, came against the Pirates, White Sox and struggling Orioles. No, I’m not convinced he’s turning a corner. RHBs exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 123
DEF: -7/-6
B30: 3.37
BSR: 0
Just when Chris Bassitt had me thinking he may have found the Fountain of Youth, he gets hammered for eight runs in road starts in the Bronx and Houston last two times out, striking out just eight with a 6.3 SwStr%. The good news is that he’s been very unfortunate on the contact side of things with a 53.8 GB% and 25% hard hit rate in those two starts. The even better news is that he’s tripled his K-BB against LHBs from 8.3% last year to 23.9% this season, while keeping RHBs right where they were last year, below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.36
BSR: -1
To start with, I like the Jays F5 at anything better than -160. They’ve hit LHPs well and Allen certainly should be no different, while Bassitt seems to have solved his platoon issue, a key point when likely facing eight LHBs against the Guardians. Also, with Gimenez on the other side and Varsho back, this is a large defensive gap. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. You’re discarding Allen and utilizing RH Blue Jays, while I think Bassitt is adequately priced on DK for $9.3K, but has a bit of value for $300 less on FD. He’s probably just inside the top five for me tonight without weather/umpire/lineup adjustments.
Twins @ Red Sox
With his best velocity of the season (93.8 nph), nearly matching last year’s 94 mph average, Joe Ryan swept away the struggling Angels, striking out 11 of 25 batters over seven shutout innings. I say swept because he utilized a season high 27.8% of them and the two pitches combined to generate 17 whiffs. Ryan is now rocking a 3.18 ERA without a single estimator more than one-third of a run higher. Might 2024 Joe Ryan be back?
Opp wRC+: 112
DEF: 0/5
B30: 3.22
BSR: 1
Brayan Bello got a late start and has allowed just four runs over 11 innings, but striking out just seven of 48 batters with six walks. He doesn’t seem to be in rhythm yet and LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, more than 50 points better than RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -3/0
B30: 3.55
BSR: 2
With the weather finally warming up in the northeast, Fenway will finally start playing as it normally does, which is one of the most positive run environments in the league. I often like complimenting more expensive parts of my lineup with cheap LH Twins batting in the upper half of the order in strong spots, which this is one of. I have Ryan virtually tied with Bassitt. More strikeouts, tougher park. They’re essentially the same priced with value reversed too.
Athletics @ Marlins
Whatcha gonna do when Hollywood Hoglund makes his MLB debut on you!
What?
That’s not his name?
Too bad
Gunnar Hoglund is expected to make his major league debut here. With a velocity bump, Hoglund was named a top 100 prospect via Fangraphs post-spring training with a 50 Future Value grade. He’s done little to change that with a 20 K-BB% over 29.2 AA innings, yet major league projections remain between four and a half and five.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -14/-7
B30: 3.74
BSR: 0
Valente Bellozo is projected, but not confirmed here. He’s posted a 7.6 K-BB% over 76.2 innings since last season with batters from either side of the plate above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA, but RHBs above .350.
Opp wRC+:107
DEF: 5/0
B30: 4.87
BSR: 1
Miami has been playing more hitter friendly in recent seasons, which means the city-less A’s bats are certainly in play here. Hoglund may be good enough to punt with in a great debut spot, if necessary. Pairing him with Skubal seems reasonable.
Dodgers @ Braves
Yoshi Yama slowed his roll and faltered against the Pirates of all teams, walking four of them last time out. Fastball and curveball grades were down significantly by both pitch modeling system, yet, it seemed to be the splitter, his best graded pitch in the outing, that he seemed to shy away from. He only made it through five innings on 94 pitches, the first time he hasn’t hit six innings and 95 pitches in four starts. Yamamoto is still off to a great start with K-BB increase (24.2%), while sustaining the 41% hard hit rate, but just four barrels to this point and a 15 point jump in ground balls (62.8%). Of equal or even more importance, the Dodgers are giving him a little more leash when pitching well.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.66
BSR: 1
Grant Holmes has not really taken his rotation role and run with it as he did last year. He’s dropped from a 16.4 SwStr% to 9.5% with a double digit drop in F-Strike to 53.8%, resulting in a double digit drop in chase rate (26.4%), while increasing his walk rate to 14.5%. The fastball has actually improved to become a near average pitch, but the curveball has become a poor offering this year. RHBs now have a .318 wOBA and .314 xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: 5/6
B30: 4.04
BSR: 0
Paul Skenes is the only pitcher in recent memory who has gotten right against the Dodgers. In a park that leans hitter friendly, I’d opt for bats on that side and with the Atlanta offense coming alive, I think Yamamoto’s best value is in a contrarian way in that he’ll likely be far less owned than my top pitcher, but he’s priced similarly, while I have him as nearly equal to several others I’ve mentioned already and certainly no better than my third best arm tonight. A 10K performance is definitely in the range of potential outcomes though.
Astros @ White Sox
In four of six outings, Framber Valdez has completed at least six innings with two runs or less. His 12.2 K-BB% is exactly four points lower than last year, but if you remember, he started off slow in this department last year before going off on a strikeout binge in the second half. However, his 51 GB% is also a career low and that didn’t happen last year. He’s only been below 60% one other time. The 46.1 HardHit% is also second worst of his career. He’s throwing the same pitches at the same frequencies and velocities with improved pitch grading on the secondaries (3.01 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+ overall), so perhaps he’ll improve on this overall. A 4.26 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.00 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 61
DEF: 12/8
B30: 3.16
BSR: 1
Jonathan Cannon completed his first quality start of the season last time out in Sacramento. It was also the first time he walked less than 11.1% of his batters. Complementing that walk rate with 10.4% Barrels/BBE, 44.8 HardHit% and a below average strikeout rate (19%) is not a recipe for success. Ironically, a 3.92 xERA is his only estimator below a 4.50 ERA, while pitch modeling believes the arsenal to be league average (4.12 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 1/0
B30: 4.40
BSR: 0
As mentioned in the teaser on Thursday night, small shot on the Sox (+200) because the xERAs intrigued me enough, but also Houston’s 73 wRC+ on the road, 91 v RHP (that former number is worse than Chicago’s wRC+ at home). However, considering that Chicago is still a worse offense and Houston has elite defense and pen work, I’m more largely on the under here, especially when you take into consideration temperatures below 50 degrees, along with the wind blowing in.
From a daily fantasy standpoint, we have no interest in bats in this weather, while I have Framber among that Fried, Yamamoto, Bassitt, Ryan grouping. He’s fine on this monster slate, though still not my favorite arm.
Mariners @ Rangers
Bryan Woo struck out a season eight at Fenway last time out and it’s still early with just two starts at home, but his 18.2 K-BB% on the road matches his 18 K-BB% at home thus far. His other road starts were in San Francisco and Toronto with the A’s and Rangers at home. He still owns an 8.6 point K-BB deficit on the road, as opposed to at home in his career. In addition to that strong K-BB, Woo has held his hard hit rate below 40% with 7.7% Barrels/BBE. His worst estimator is a 4.15 dERA that’s more than a run above his 3.02 xERA, backed by an elite arsenal (2.40 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+). One pitch in particular to watch out for is the fastball (61 PB, 112 P+), a pitch the Rangers are fourth worst in the league against (-0.78 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: -5/-3
B30: 3.97
BSR: 2
Jack Leiter returned from nearly a month on the IL to throw just 76 pitches in San Francisco (82 season high), walking four of the 16 batters he faced. We hope he hasn’t regressed and the Seattle offense has been a monster this season with reduced strikeouts (133 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP with a 22 K% and 21 K%). The good news is that through those three starts, Leiter doesn’t have an estimator reaching four, while his pitch grading has improved significantly, due to improved command (3.82 Bot ERA to 3.22 and 99 Pitching+ to 114). Leiter has increased his usage of secondaries, but the slider is one of his biggest strengths (28.1%, 60 PB, 115 P+) and certainly a pitch he wants to attack the Mariners with (-0.42 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 133
DEF: 3/3
B30: 3.66
BSR: 2
This is an interesting spot in a perfectly neutral run environment. The concern with the fastball heavy Seattle staff is that the heaters play differently on the road than they do at home for several reasons, highlighted in a late pre-season BaseballSavant.com article. I have him right among that group of pitchers mentioned in the game above though, and do think he’s usable in this spot against a struggling Texas offense without Seager. He’s potentially one of the better values on DraftKings for $8.4K. Leiter is probably too expensive for the workload, volatility and declined strikeout rates in the Mariner lineup. It wouldn’t hurt to throw in a Seattle stack or two in case Leiter can’t find the plate again either.
Cubs @ Brewers
Ben Brown needs a quality third pitch. LHBs have a .336 wOBA against him since last year, compared to .273 for RHBs. On the other hand, RHBs have a .338 xwOBA against him 17 points higher than his mark against LHBs. The curve is fine (52 PB, 103 P+), but the fastball is a problem (41, 77) and he throws it 57.1% of the time). It can miss bats. It doesn’t miss bats (7.2 SwStr%) and batters have a 104 wRC+ against it. The curve does miss enough bats to generate a 24.6 K% with a 13 SwStr% overall, but Brown has issues finding the strike zone (11.1 BB%) and managing contact (44.9 HardHit%).
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 0/4
B30: 4.18
BSR: 1
After allowing just three runs in his first 14 innings, the Cardinals smoked Quinn Priester for five runs. With just a 1.2 K-BB%, he had it coming though. The good news is that he’s managed contact to the league average with 57.6% of his contact on the ground, but everything in his arsenal grades poorly (5.33 Bot ERA, 86 Pitching+) and it makes no sense to compare the Cubs on an individual pitch basis because they’re near the top of the league against every pitch type.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.55
BSR: 6
With the roof almost certainly closed, Milwaukee leans slightly towards pitchers overall, though it is a bit power friendly. With LHBs above a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against Priester since last year, that’s a prime area of offensive focus tonight. Brown may be one of the more interesting arms on the slate. He’s cheap enough with enough upside to consider in an SP2 role if needed, but the Brewers have just a 9.3 K-BB% against RHP. He also has enough volatility that I’m not ruling out Milwaukee bats with a middle of the board 4.39 implied run line, while the xwOBA numbers tell us RHBs may be as good as LHBs.
Mets @ Cardinals
Could we consider bats over arms here?
Tigers @ Angels
Another favorite and a full unit play here. Also, the obvious top arm.
Rockies @ Giants
The second best pitcher on the board? Can we attack Senzatela in this park? And we may going in the other direction if this line keeps climbing with the red hot Rockies (two in a row!).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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