A larger than usual 11 game Thursday only has four games starting after 2:30 ET. Every game may not be covered in depth with less focus on the daily fantasy angle than usual on a slim pickings slate.
April ends on a sour note...
- Miss Ortiz K prop by one, despite working into the 7th without allowing a run
- Judge two run homer in first, but can't catch 4.5 runs
- It took a combination of managerial and umpire errors in the 9th to beat the Mets by a run.
But, no complaints on any month that ends in profit. Just a bit less profit now. I'll post some records on Monday.
Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Cubs @ Pirates
Colin Rea is chucking his fastball 50.3% of the time (50 PitchingBot grade, 86 Pitching+) and nothing else more than 10.5% of the time, but it’s working. Facing the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Phillies, he’s struck out 17 of 56 with three walks without allowing a single barrel and only nine hard hit batted balls (25%). He does have a 4.05 dERA, but that’s almost a full run above his next worst estimator (3.12 xFIP).
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: 0/4
B30: 4.25
BSR: 1
Paul Skenes struck out a season high nine Dodgers without a walk in a dominant 6.1 shutout innings last time out. He upped his curveball usage (50 PB, 116 P+ for the game) to 15.7% without having using more than 6.1% in any other start. The 14.8 SwStr% wasn’t a season high, but increases him to 12.9% on the season, which easily supports his 27.5 K% and 24.6 K-BB%. Skenes has complimented that with an elite contact profile (52 GB%, 3 barrels, 29.6 HardHit%).
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 2/0
B30: 4.29
BSR: 7
No, I don’t think Rea will sustain this level of performance, but even adding half a run onto his estimators, I still see a lot of value in the Cubs and that’s because their offense (135 Rd wRC+) is so much better than Pittsburgh (79 Hm wRC+). Check out those baserunning metrics, which is half PCA. The Pirates have to score to win and that’s why I’m siding with the Cubs (+136). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Cardinals @ Reds
What I wrote last time about both these pitchers still applies here, though I’ll adjust the numbers…
Matthew Liberatore has been a revelation in St Louis, going at least six innings in all five starts with a 21.5 K-BB%, which makes his 46.2 HardHit% more tolerable with only five barrels. The slider (29.8%, 56 PB, 114 P+) has been the star of the show. He’s allowed just four runs (three earned) over his last 18.2 innings against the Phillies, Mets and Brewers.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 14/6
B30: 4.31
BSR: 1
With a 4.9 SwStr% and velocity down 1.4 mph from last year, Andrew Abbott still struck out five of 19 Pirates and allowed a single run. Down a further 0.3 mph in his second start, Abbott increased his fastball usage to 49.5% and struck out 11 of 21 Orioles with a 19.4 SwStr%. No, I don’t get it. His only positively grading pitch is the changeup (15.5%, 64 PB, 119 P+), resulting in a 5.31 Bot ERA and 90 Pitching+ through two starts.
And then Coors got him. Abbott walked five Rockies with just four strikeouts and a further reduction in velocity (90.8 mph). He had just an 8.3 SwStr% against the whiffiest team in the league.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 4/5
B30: 4.83
BSR: 1
I do not like this version of Abbott and I was never infatuated with the superior version. I won’t even quote his estimators because he’s running a K/SwStr around three with anything more than 2.5 being a little fishy. There was Bartolo Colon territory. On the other hand, I’m buying on Liberatore and you can see it in the arsenals (4.04 Bot ERA vs Abbott’s 5.44 and a 22 point better Ptiching+. With the better offense against LHP, better defense and bullpen, I’ll side with the Cards (+108).
Diamondbacks @ Mets
Zac Gallen struck out 13 of his 35 batters this year against the Yankees and has only one other quality start. His 14 K-BB% is a career low and this is his seventh season already. His 30.4 GB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE are career worsts too. His best estimator is a 3.99 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -1/-3
B30: 3.59
BSR: 2
Despite solid results (14.4 K-BB%, 46.1 GB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE) something seems off about Kodai Senga and he as much as admitted it in his last start after his fourth straight start failing to strike out more than five, though his SwStr has been between 11% and 11.5% in each of his last three starts.
Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: -1/-2
B30: 3.11
BSR: 4
Royals @ Rays
Before Seth Lugo’s last start, I wrote…
If you’re waiting for Seth Lugo to bounce back from his marginally slow start (3.90) ERA, be careful. That’s right where his SIERA (4.02) and xFIP (3.93) since last season reside. Want to say the park suppresses power? Okay, 3.52 FIP, except that his 8.3 K-BB% is half of last year’s 15.9% and his hard hit rate has gone from 39% to 46.6%, while his SwStr is a career low 7.9% (a 1.6 point drop). Pitch modeling is not at all buying what he’s selling (5.24 Bot ERA, 87 Pitching+). A .244 BABIP and 81.1 LOB% are actually propping him up. Even RHBs are above a .330 wOBA against him this year, which gives him no benefit in facing the Astros here.
Welp, RHBs are now down to .268 wOBA against him, as Lugo struck out eight of 27 Astros over eight dominant, three-hit shutout innings, but my points still hold with just a 7.4 SwStr% in the start. His season rate actually declined one-tenth of a point. He still has a 5.01 BotERA and 90 Pitching+ with a .230 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% that are even more unsustainable.
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.84
BSR: -3
Five of Shane Baz’s eight runs allowed in one start against the Yankees. In that start and one against the Angels, he’s posted eight of his nine walks. His other three starts are all quality start with a total of one run allowed and 27 strikeouts. Overall, Baz’s worst estimator is a 3.25 xFIP. All three pitches he throws more than 7.7% of the time have average or better pitch modeling grade via PB and Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 73
DEF: 4/-3
B30: 3.81
BSR: -2
Baz has been more than a run better than Lugo by estimators and the Rays are 46 points of wRC+ better against RHP. Rays (-135) F5 is my first 1.5 unit play of the season and the line increased as I was writing this.
Twins @ Guardians
Congratulations to SWR for striking out a season high seven of 20 Angels with his best fastball of the season (53 PB, 105 P+, 20” iVB). His 4.07 ERA matches his FIP with a 3.75 SIERA his only estimator below that.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 0/5
B30: 3.25
BSR: -2
Ben Lively…does that mean the ball is Lively when he pitches? The 10.9% Barrels/BBE and 46.7 K-BB% would make me think so. You never want that barrel percentage to exceed your K-BB.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 3.50
BSR: 2
I may have some interest in the total here, but for now, this game gets the quick treatment.
Brewers @ White Sox
While Pitching+ doesn’t seem to hate Chad Patrick (97 grade), he doesn’t have a single pitch exceeding a 46 PitchingBot grade. His 10.5 BB% matches his K-BB% with a hard hit rate near 50%.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.52
BSR: 1
Sean Burke was Chicago’s Opening Day starter and now they’re using openers for him already. A 4.87 SIERA is his only estimator below five.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/-6
B30: 4.50
BSR: 1
Athletics @ Rangers
Following his initial start of the season, in which Jeffrey Springs supplied six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in Seattle, he’s allowed 27 runs (25 earned) over 22.1 innings with a 2.7 K-BB% and 10.3% Barrels/BBE. It’s a complete mess with a career worst 4.81 Bot ERA and 89 Pitching+. Since his return from injury last year, RHBs have a .354 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -14/-7
B30: 3.95
BSR: 2
Tyler Mahle’s splitter (62 PB, 116 P+) and cutter (68, 124) have been the nuts (3.29 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+), but he’s getting by throwing a more marginal fastball more than 50% of the time with a 10.7 K-BB% being masked by a .217 BABIP, 87.1 LOB% and no home runs on five barrels.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 3/0
B30: 3.52
BSR: 1
I don’t necessarily trust Mahle and think the line is more or less correct, but feel like I have to side against Springs in some manner here and over 2.5 (F5) at even money seems like a good way to do it.
Nationals @ Phillies
Brad Lord, as in Good Lord, this guy again? With just a 5.1 K-BB% and poor pitch grading (5.04 Bot ERA, 82 Pitching+), there’s nothing to see here.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 4.25
BSR: -1
No, Taijuan Walker is not good again. He’s just stranding 79.5% of his runners and couldn’t possibly be worse than last season. His 5.29 BOT ERA IS actually worse, but the 98 Pitching+ is a nine point improvement. Additional estimators range between a 3.91 xERA and 4.45 dERA, so basically fine as a fifth starter if he keeps it up.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 1/-1
B30: 3.95
BSR: -1
So happy I don’t have to cover this in more depth for a daily fantasy slate.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Tanner Houck has two quality starts. One is against the White Sox, which should only count for half. The other was in bad weather against the Blue Jays with just two strikeouts and as many walks. His 9.0 K-BB% is easily a career worst with a 49% hard hit rate and also a career worst 9.5 SwStr%. Pitch grading is about average though (4.12 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+), but most estimators are higher. He did follow up the White Sox with a solid six strikeouts to one walk in Cleveland, but got BABIP’d (.500). Perhaps he’s beginning to come along?
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: -3/0
B30: 3.42
BSR: 0
Jose Berrios shut out the Yankees for five innings in his last start, despite a 4.5 SwStr% and 47.1 HardHit%. On the season, his 4.24 ERA is lower than all of his estimators, including a career worst 4.47 Bot ERA and 92 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.24
BSR: 1
Also happy I don’t have to cover these two for a daily fantasy slate.
Tigers @ Angels
Casey Mize only has two quality starts, but has recorded sixth inning outs each time he’s started and has allowed a run or less in four of five. That said, while his 13.6 K-BB% is a career best, it’s merely league average, though his 37.5 HardHit% and 6.8% Barrels/BBE are the best of his career. Mize was sitting 95.3 mph in his last start, which matches last year’s velocity after previously being a mph down. The biggest improvement has come in the slider (from 51 to 58 PB, 104 to 120 P+), though Mize has cut it’s usage in half. I don’t know and I’ve already spent too much time trying to figure out marginal improvement. I mean, the BABIP is down 100 points with a 94.5 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.84
BSR: 1
Some organizations can optimize a pitcher’s attributes. The Angels make them worse. In his latest effort, Yusei Kikuchi walked four without a strikeout, dropping to a 7.1 K-BB%. A 3.95 dERA is his only estimator below four and a half. His velocity remains down and props to him for reducing his fastball usage to 38.4% this season, but his slider grade is down too, though overall pitch model grading isn’t bad (3.70 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+ are worse than last season however).
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 2/-5
B30: 4.13
BSR: 3
If I were playing on DraftKings tonight, Mize would have to be one of three guys I’m thinking about and he’s actually the most expensive ($8.7K). It’s a nice spot and Trout was pulled from Wednesday’s game for unknown reasons. Maybe he’s played his month and is done.
Rockies @ Giants
With the disclaimer that two were at home and the other against the Padres, Kyle Freeland has posted a 6.8 K-BB% over his last three starts after a 19.7% mark over his first three. His velocity is down half a mph, more so in his last two starts, though his pitch modeling grades are exactly the same in both sets of starts (3.66 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+) and Freeland has actually increased his ground ball rate in the latter set (58.7%), though that’s what the Rockies usually aim to do at home.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: -4/1
B30: 4.49
BSR: 3
First two quality starts for Justin Verlander in his last two starts against a pair of struggling AL West offenses (LAA, TEX). He’s increased his K-BB to all of 12% over this span and while he’s allowed 9.7% Barrels/BBE it comes with only a 35.7 HardHit% and the park will take care of some of that for him. While the 4.15 Bot ERA is marginal, Verlander’s 104 Pitching+ is his best since his Cy Young in Houston, mostly on the improvement in his slider (53 PB, 117 P+). The pitch cratered in Texas (39 PB, 86 P+), despite one of his best starts of the season, while he sat at a season low 94 mph. RHBs have a .348 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Verlander since last year.
Opp wRC+: 65
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 3.40
BSR: 0
Quite a bit to cover here. I think the Rockies have some value here at +165 (F5 – I want nothing to do with the Coloardo bullpen). Freeland has better estimators than Verlander and the Giants have struggled against LHP, while Colorado has the better defense as well. Secondly, considering the park and temps projected around 50 degrees in addition to Colorado’s lack of offense and San Francisco’s great bullpen, I also like the under here (7.5 -115). Lastly, daily fantasy players have to have both of these guys at the top of their boards (along with Mize) on a four game slate. It’s the only really negative run environment on the board.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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