The latest starting game on Wednesday is 8 pm ET in Texas with six afternoon games if you count the rescheduled Cardinals and Reds, who will play two. We may have some interest in the second of those games, as it currently appears on the main DraftKings daily fantasy slate. There should be enough time in between to catch lineups. Nine overall on the main DraftKings slate and I’d assume the same on the FanDuel slate, which we won’t know until several hours from this writing at 7pm ET.
We have four TBDs, four potential major league debuts, two first starts back from Tommy John and a confirmed bullpen game from the Blue Jays. This may take forever just to set up.
Stats are 2025 with a Legend below.
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Tigers @ Astros
Jackson Jobe has allowed just one run over his last 11 innings against the Royals and Twins. He’s increased slider usage (31 PB, 107 P+) and decreased fastball usage (51, 104) in each start. It’s been the far better pitch in both actual and expected results with a far better whiff rate, so I don’t understand why PitchingBot hates it so much.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 1/4
B30: 3.74
BSR: 0
Unconfirmed, this sounds like it’s going to be something called either an Alan or AJ Blubaugh, a 24 year-old with a 40 FV grade and ranked 14th in the org. by Fangraphs. He appears to have the potential to miss bats, but with control issues. What young pitcher doesn’t? His projections are slightly above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 12/7
B30: 3.11
BSR: 3
I have nothing to add here.
Braves @ Rockies
While Chris Sale allowed a season low one run in Arizona last time out, he hasn’t exceeded five innings in a start yet and I suspect this is something the Braves are going to do try and keep him healthy. His 20.5 K-BB% is 4.3 points below his career rate to go along with a career low 34.9 GB% and career high 9.5% Barrels/BBE. It’s early and this still supports a 3.52 ERA with contact neutral estimators a bit lower. He won’t carry the .400 BABIP all season.
Opp wRC+: 63
DEF: 5/6
B30: 4.09
BSR: 0
The arsenal seems average (3.90 BotERA, 99 Pitching+), while the 15.6 K-BB% is the same rate Chase Dollander posted in AAA this year. He did not pitch above AA last season. The 12 barrels (19.4%) are something though.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -4/-2
B30: 4.49
BSR: 1
We’re looking at decent weather on Wednesday afternoon and instead of what would have looked like a great pitching matchup a month ago, could end up a sneaky shoot out.
Marlins @ Dodgers
A 3.8 K-BB% with 10.2% Barrels/BBE and a 46.9 HardHit% is gonna get Cal Quantrill a trip out of the league pretty soon.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 5/0
B30: 4.88
BSR: 0
Tony Gonsolin is back from Tommy John. He posted a 17.2 K-BB% with normal velocity in four AAA rehab starts. Projections are still around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.59
BSR: 0
If Gonsolin’s projections are right, I think I’m supposed to lean Marlins +245. If he’s closer to average, like his rehab starts suggest…?? Follow RockyJade on Action Network.
Angels @ Mariners
Tyler Anderson will not maintain anything close to his .167 BABIP and 95.7 LOB% all season. The changeup is performing similarly excellent to last season, though it’s pitch grades are down (57 PB, 95 P+) driving his overall marks in the wrong direction (4.51 Bot ERA, 89 P+). When the barrels (10.4%) are higher than the K-BB (8.9%), trouble is looming, especially with his 28.9 GB%.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 2/-5
B30: 4.01
BSR: 2
Coming off a strong performance at Fenway, Emmerson Hancock has struck out 11 of 52 batters with just three walks. There are some issues in the contact profile, but nothing that this park can’t overcome if he sustains at least an average K-BB%. The Red Sox stared at a lot of sinkers in the strike zone though, so I don’t know if this is going to be a thing or not, while RHBs above a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season could be a bit of a problem with this lineup.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -5/0
B30: 3.91
BSR: 1
Not much to add here either.
Giants @ Padres
Landon Roupp is coming off his worst outing of the season against the Brewers last time out, walking three with just two strikeouts in 3.2 innings. Whenever a pitcher has an unexpected outing like this, I’ll immediately go to Pitcher List’s Roundup to see what went wrong and Nick seems to think he was squeezed a bit in this one. The curve (41.9%) is still a monster (60 PB, 120 P+).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -7/-2
B30: 3.32
BSR: -1
Surprisingly, Michael King has only one quality start, but has finished a single out shy twice. He’s up to a 21.5 K-BB% with estimators no worse than a 3.31 dERA. Should I get my Cy Young shares in now?
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -4/-5
B30: 3.19
BSR: 3
Should be one of the better pitching matchups on the docket today, but I’m unlikely to have a dog in this race.
Twins @ Guardians
Pablo Lopez looked sharp in his return from a short trip to the IL. His normally elite pitch modeling grades have taken a further step so far (2.82 Bot ERA, 115 Pitching+) with an 18 K-BB% that’s just a couple of points below last year. Lopez doesn’t have an estimator reaching three and a half. I would only be slightly concerned with LHBs owning a .325 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 0/5
B30: 3.35
BSR: -2
Since elevating his heater in a start where Luis L. Ortiz struck out 10 Royals, he’s struck out eight Pirates and eight more Yankees. That’s 26 of his last 66 batters (14.9 SwStr%), but with 10 walks, five barrels and a 53.3 HardHit% over that span. Ortiz has actually reduced his fastball usage in each of those starts too. It may actually be the problem as his worst grading pitch (42 PB, 73 P+). It was average in the start against the Royals, but well below average in every other start this year.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 3.50
BSR: 2
With a forecast of 50 degrees in Cleveland, its’ really Lopez’s platoon issues keeping me from an early under.
Yankees @ Orioles
With just a 7.3 K-BB%, career low 38.6 GB% and 44.6 HardHit% (12% Barrels/BBE), Carlos Carrasco’s usefulness to the Yankees may be coming to an end. He does not have an above average pitch or estimator below 4.70. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: 4/-7
B30: 3.55
BSR: 2
I mentioned Cade Povich’s 11.2 K-BB% with a matching 11.1% Barrels/BBE and 50.8 HardHit% potentially earning him a pitch back to the minor leagues, but the Orioles have no pitchers to spare, so thankfully, he struck out five of 25 Nationals with one walk and a 26.3 HardHit% last time out. The same Pitcher’s List Roundup report we used earlier, tells us that the Nationals were watching a lot of fastballs pass over the plate. RHBs have pummeled Povich for a .371 wOBA and .333 xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 152
DEF: -7/-2
B30: 4.03
BSR: -1
Forecast is around 80 degrees and it’s not like the Yankees really need hitting weather, but they might get it anyway here. The obvious is for bats here. Povich is priced low enough ($5.5K on DraftKings) that he is popping in terms of PP$ value, but I really don’t think that’s something I’m going to be considering on this slate. While I’m at it, I want to mention that it’s 11 pm ET now without a FanDuel slate posted, so we’re merely going off DraftKings pricing tonight.
Cubs @ Pirates
Matthew Boyd is posting a 2.54 ERA over a run below all estimators with three unearned runs (all in his last start against the Dodgers) and an 81.5 LOB%, but on the other hand, he’s managing contact really well (3.4% Barrels/BBE, 34.5 HardHit%) and has only faced the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks in five starts. That makes the 11.4 K-BB% not look so bad and I’ll reserve judgement on slightly below average pitch modeling that somewhat matches last year’s grading.
Opp wRC+: 68
DEF: 0/3
B30: 4.48
BSR: 1
Carmen Mlodzinski has kept the ball on the ground (50.6%) with a decent 37.7 HardHit%, allowing just five barrels (6.5%). The matching 8.7 BB% and K-BB% are not ideal and the 4.84 xERA is somehow his worst estimator. That’s still nowhere near his 6.95 ERA (.387 BABIP, 61.8 LOB%). He’s coming off a season low velocity by a full mph, while his 3.63 Bot ERA and 103 Pitching+ are based entirely on the slider (64 PB, 132 P+). The Cubs are the top slider hammering team in baseball (1.0 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 2/0
B30: 4.12
BSR: 7
Even without the caveat of Boyd’s schedule, his value for less than $9K is popping on this slate in a great park. He’s a top three arm for me and possibly two with another caveat coming up later. Pittsburgh murders right-handed power, but I’d still lean towards Cubs bats here. Like Povich, Mlodzinski may pop on a PP$ basis just because he’s so cheap ($5K), but he is not a pitcher I’d consider unless I were entirely willing to punt SP2.
Cardinals @ Reds (G2)
Steven Matz has pitched mostly in relief, but has remained stretched out with one start, in which he completed five innings on 71 pitches. Expect something similar here. His numbers have been average (13.9 K-BB%, 45 GB%, 6.6% Barrels/BBE, but 49.2 HardHit%). It’s that last number we have to worry about in this park, especially as his SwStr rate is down to 7% with just a 24% chase rate. That said, his pitch quality is well above average (3.41 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+) with all three of his main pitches (sinker/change/curve) grading above 50 via PitchingBot. Matz has had platoon issues since last season (RHBs > .330 wOBA and xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 14/8
B30: 4.31
BSR: 1
Chase Petty is one of the better pitching prospects in the Cincinnati organization, slapped with a 50 FV grade by Fangraphs, who had him third overall last year (this season’s report has yet to be published). However, Petty posted a 12.2 K-BB% in 137 innings combined at the highest levels of the minors, but is off to a better start this year (18%), but has suffered from control issues at higher levels and may need a stronger third pitch against LHBs. Petty has struck out 15 of his last 44 batters (four walks), though projections all remain above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 4/5
B30: 4.83
BSR: 1
I don’t think we’re jumping on a rookie with poor projections, despite the FV grade, in this spot in this park. Feel free to have some St Louis exposure, as the bullpen has been a major weakness for Cincinnati. Matz has limited upside in a limited workload. It appears this game only appears on the DraftKings slate.
Nationals @ Phillies
While Jake Irvin has three straight quality starts, two of them have been at least seven innings with a combined one run. He has gotten away with a little something with four barrels in his last two starts and a 50% hard hit rate against the Mets last time out, but damn the velocity that’s down 1.7 mph from last season, Irvin is carrying an improved 16 K-BB%. Even with that, his FIP (4.24), dERA (4.29) and xERA (4.78) are not buying it and there’s major discrepancy with his pitch modeling (3.40 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+). LHBs have a .339 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against him and that hasn’t really improved this year. Irvin did hold the Phillies two just two runs over five innings in his first start, but with just two strikeouts and walks, three barrels and a 66.7 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -1/-5
B30: 4.31
BSR: -1
Here comes that second caveat we spoke about with Boyd above. Cristopher Sanchez was down a mph in his last start and left after just two innings with forearm soreness, the dreaded cursor to a UCL injury and future Tommy John surgery. The Phillies, however, claim all is well and who am I to argue? Despite that performance, Sanchez holds a 22.3 K-BB% with 55.1% of his contact on the ground and only three barrels with a sub-40% hard hit rate. With four home runs on those three barrels, Sanchez’s 3.67 FIP is his only estimator reaching three and that includes a 2.98 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 70
DEF: 1/-1
B30: 3.96
BSR: 0
Sanchez is my top pitcher assuming full health and normal workload. And at just $8.2K on DraftKings, he’s also my top value. Can we assume those things though? I’d rather go against Irvin with LH Phillies, a move I don’t anticipate a lot of players making considering his recent results.
Royals @ Rays
Twenty-five year old southpaw, Noah Cameron is a marginally regarded prospect (45 FV grade) with a great changeup (60 grade), but below average fastball (45). He’s posted a 21 K-BB% at the highest levels of the minors last season and this year in a combined 150 innings, but projects for somewhere around 15% with an ERA around four at the major league level. With a 15 SwStr% since last season as well, Cameron is at least slightly interesting, though maybe not in this exact spot.
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.84
BSR: -1
As I noted prior to his last start, Drew Rasmussen is here for a good time, not a long time. He’s only recorded two sixth inning outs in five starts without reaching 85 pitches yet. While he is in there, Rasmussen has been dominant (21.6 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE) with all pitchers exceeding a 50 PB grade and 100 Pitching+ (2.59 Bot ERA, 110 Pitching+ overall).
Opp wRC+: 73
DEF: 4/-1
B30: 3.81
BSR: -2
Two great matchups if you disregard the park, but it’s going to be in the 80s in Tampa tonight and the Royals have just a 19.7 K% against RHP. The Rays will at least offer a min-priced Cameron some strikeouts. It’s not a terrible play if you really want certain high priced bats. A $9K Rasmussen is too expensive for the workload.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Lucas Giolito was last an All-Star quality pitcher when the White Sox were last a quality team. Therefore, he returns with projections around four and a half after missing the entirety of 2024 and posting a 4.9 K-BB% (16 BB%) over 17.1 innings at AA & AAA, most recently walking six Syracuse Mets.
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: -3/0
B30: 3.42
BSR: 0
Bullpen game for the Blue Jays. The pen has gone from a source of great consternation to one of pride for the Jays, but that’s mostly at the back end. Who will we see today?
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.24
BSR: 1
This one is short. Expect the roof to be closed with temps around 45 in Toronto. There is no way we’re touching Giolito against an offense that doesn’t strike out. His rehab numbers are awful. I can’t tell you what to do with Boston bats because I don’t know the matchups.
Diamondbacks @ Mets
Congratulations to Corbin Burnes for striking out eight of 22 Rays last time out, but even there, he generated just 11 whiffs and the cutter, while better (54 PB, 103 P+), was still not what it used to be and remains a merely average pitch this season (51, 103). Burnes still registers just an 11.4 K-BB% with a 52% hard hit rate (63.6% against the Rays) and has allowed eight barrels (10.7%). RHBs have a .298 wOBA and .309 xwOBA against Burnes since last season and I’d expect the Mets to post a right-handed heavy lineup against him.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -1/3
B30: 3.59
BSR: 4
Huascar Brazoban will open. Thirty year old Rube Waddell…excuse me, Brandon Waddell will follow. He was chosen specifically to combat Arizona’s issues with LHP this year. Waddell has 12.2 major league innings to his resume, none since 2021. He did post a 20.3 K-BB% in 75 KBO innings last year. So think, Erick Fedde upside?
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: -1/-2
B30: 3.11
BSR: 3
In a pitcher friendly park, I guess you can go either way with Arizona bats. However, I’m more interested in the other side of this matchup. While I’m certainly fading Burnes, who is still at $9K, but I’m also interested in attacking him with a suddenly smoking Mets offense (138 wRC+, 18 K% L7 days). The Arizona bullpen has declined missing key pieces too. Beware that winds aren't nearly as hitter friendly as last night.
Brewers @ White Sox
Tobias Myers struck out just two of 20 Giants, walking four in his season debut with just a 6.1 SwStr%. The contact profile was favorable however, without a barrel and a 35.7 HardHit%. Velocity was in line with last season, but Myers threw a lot more sliders, grading poorly (41 PB, 81 P+). With a 16 K-BB% and average contact profile last season, Myers was formidable for the most part, though LHBs are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.52
BSR: 1
Shane Smith has been the White Sox best starter this season and while a .219 BABIP, 80.4 LOB% and the fact that just one of five barrels (6.8%) have left the yard are driving the 2.30 ERA, his worst estimator is a 4.36 xFIP. He may just wind up being average, although the 11.9 K-BB% and 45.9 HardHit% aren’t exactly ideal and it’s not like he’s facing the best offenses in the league in the AL Central.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/-6
B30: 4.50
BSR: 1
First thing to note is temperatures in the low 50s with a near double digit wind blowing in from left makes this likely one of the most negative run environments on the board, if not the most negative. I really don’t have a feel for Myers here, but we have to consider everyone against the White Sox under favorable conditions, no? At $7.5K or less I believe Smith to be a solid value too and am uninterested in bats here.
Athletics @ Rangers
Despite relying on the sweeper a season low 16.5% of the time last time out, Luis Severino struck out a season high seven batters, caveat being that it was against the White Sox. His pitch usage and grading is similar to last year overall (3.79 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+), but the K-BB is sitting at just 10.8% with a career low 39.1 GB%, which would have been fine in Oakland, but maybe not Sacramento. Obviously, he’s pitching in neither of those parks tonight, but a likely neutral Globe Life Park with the roof closed. Severino’s hard hit rate is up to 42.2% as well. The good news is that because he’s one out shy of reaching six innings in every start, he’s struck out at least six in four of his six attempts, being limited to four total against the Brewers and Padres. All of Sevy’s non-FIP estimators run more than half a run, but less than a run above his 3.49 ERA with a .232 BABIP, the one benefit of fewer ground balls, but still unsustainable. LHBs are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino with RHBs below .290 since last season, though with Seager out, that’s less of an issue against the Rangers.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -14/-7
B30: 3.95
BSR: 2
Nathan Eovaldi remains down more than a mph, but I’m wondering if it’s intentional at this point, as the results continue to be fantastic. He’s nearly doubled his curveball usage (22%) and the pitch has responded with a 60 PB and 108 Pitching+, his top graded pitch by either system. With a 25 K-BB% and 49.5 GB%, we’re less worried about the 44.2 HardHit% or 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Eovaldi fell below a 12 SwStr% for the first time this year in his last start in San Francisco, but still shut them out over six innings, posting his fourth quality start, all with two earned or less.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 3/3
B30: 3.52
BSR: 1
With temperatures around 70, but rain potential, I’d assume the roof to be closed, as it nearly always with a neutral run environment (+14% if open on average). Severino is a workhorse, who you can roster LHBs against and I don’t really love in this spot with the lack of strikeouts. Then, of course, he could end up going 40% sweepers and racking up seven or eight, so some exposure is fine. I expect he could be pretty popular on this slate with limited options at the top of the board. As mentioned earlier, if we suspect that Sanchez is either unhealthy or could be limited, Eovaldi becomes my top overall pitcher, barely nudging Boyd, but I wouldn’t be entirely against a few LH A’s one offs (.305 wOBA, .335 xwOBA against Eovaldi since last year).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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