Ten games on the main daily fantasy slate on Tuesday with five evening games starting before the 7pm ET hour. Full disclosure, I tried to post a pair of plays on Action Network on Monday afternoon, but the site was not having it (Unable to Record message):
Nationals +150 0.5u
Braves/Rockies u10 (-104) 1.04u
Turns out to be a half unit profit missed in tracking with the Marlins the only recorded play for Monday, currently trailing.
We also have five TBDs on MLB.com listed probables as of 7pm ET. I'll take Roster Resource's best guesses, but this has the potential to be train wreck. In the future, more than four TBDs will probably cause me to skip the day. It's not worth the headache at this point. There may be some wewat and windy spots on the slate as well.
Legend at bottom of page.
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Twins @ Guardians
Chris Paddack has thrown exactly five innings with two runs or less in three straight starts, but is still working off a pair of beatings to open the season, initially against the White Sox. He goes as the changeup does (23.6%, 68 PitchingBot grade, 129 Pitching+). It’s one of the best pitches in the league and one the Guardians have struggled with this season (-1.11 wCH/C is fifth worst in the league). That said, LHBs have a .347 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against Paddack since last year and the Cleveland lineup is stacked with them. Paddack’s estimators may run well below his 6.45 ERA (62.1 LOB%), though none are better than a 4.21 xERA with just a 6.7 K-BB% (14.3% last three starts).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 0/5
B30: 3.48
BSR: -2
Tanner Bibee is coming off his first quality start of the season, against the Yankees, where he was up a mph from his season and 2024 velocity in that start. While pitch modeling loved the performance, Bibee had a 2.8 SwStr% in the outing, while Pitcher’s List remarked about poor command of his secondaries. With just a 5.4 K-BB% and 13.2% Barrels/BBE, Bibee has worse estimators than Paddack.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 3.40
BSR: 2
Well, it appears my play on the Twins here has been saved on Action Network (follow Rocky Jade). I trust Paddack right more now than I trust Bibee, which still isn’t saying much, but it’s also stunning to see the Twins have the better defense and base running team right now, where they’re comparable offensively and in the bullpen.
Yankees @ Orioles
Why yes I did mention that Carlos Rodon had struck out 25 of 71 batters with just a 9.8 SwStr%, not reaching 11% in any of those starts before his last trip to the mound. Well, he struck out eight more Guardians with a 14.4 SwStr% (Fangraphs), though Baseball Savant shows 17 whiffs in 90 pitches. Strong performance either way, while his velocity (95.1 mph) was not far below last year’s. Pitch modeling actually graded the game below average and below Rodon’s previous 2025 work. Go figure. With five home runs on five barrels, all of Rodon’s non-FIP estimators are below his 3.50 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 49
DEF: 4/6
B30: 3.51
BSR: 2
Kyle Gibson has pitched to a 4.46 xERA or worse in each of the last three seasons, so a composite of projections right around four and a half makes a lot of sense. His K-BB has declined in two straight seasons and he hasn’t reached a 50% ground ball rate in three. Gibson struck out 13 of 51 minor league batters, hitting two and walking two, but they weren’t all at AAA.
Opp wRC+: 128
DEF: -7/-2
B30: 4.15
BSR: -1
I’m seeing the Yankees F5 at -142 on FanDuel right now and that’s too low when you’ve got a pitcher with a full run advantage in projections/estimators along with a far superior offense and defense at this point.
Cubs @ Pirates
Shota Imanaga has allowed seven home runs on 11 barrels (15.9%) over his last four starts against the Padres (2x), Dodgers and Rangers. He also had a 27.7 K% over the last two of those (Dodgers and Padres). He’s had a brutal schedule, but his extreme fly ball profile can sometimes end up with a lot of home runs and barrels.
Opp wRC+: 69
DEF: 0/5
B30: 4.44
BSR: 1
Andrew Heaney’s 21.2 K-BB% is the fourth best mark of his career with his highest ground ball rate (41.6%) and lowest hard hit rate (34.2%) since 2016.
Opp wRC+: 143
DEF: 2/0
B30: 4.19
BSR: 6
This was a short one, as I have no dog in this fight and it’s not on the main daily fantasy slate.
Cardinals @ Reds
Miles Mikolas
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 14/8
B30: 4.07
BSR: 1
Brady Singer
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 4/1
B30: 4.66
BSR: 1
And that’s all I got to say about that. Sorry, but gotta save time and there’s nothing interesting to point out here.
Nationals @ Phillies
MacKenzie Gore struck out 13 of these Phillies on Opening Day, utilizing his new slider 24.7% of the time. He’s still struck out at least seven in four of five since, despite dropping down to 10.7% usage of that slider without reaching 20% again. His 31 K-BB% is ridiculous.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 4.43
BSR: -2
ZacK Wheeler has also struck out at least seven in all but one of his six starts (28.6 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 3.96
BSR: -1
Both pitchers own ERAs in the mid-three, at least a quarter of a run above all estimators.
Royals @ Rays
Michael Lorenzon is coming off six innings of one run ball against the Rockies in Kansas City. While he struck out seven of 26 batters, he also walked four. His 10.7 K-BB% is actually his best mark since the pandemic, while his 34.5 HardHit% is also his lowest in that span. Only his 4.54 dERA is more than half a run removed from a 3.90 ERA, but only a 3.78 xERA is below it. RHBs have a .350 wOBA and .354 xwOBA against Lorenzon since last year.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 4.11
BSR: -3
Feast or famine, Taj Bradley has three quality starts with a total of six runs allowed, but also has allowed 10 runs over his other 10.1 innings. After striking out exactly seven in each of his first three starts, Bradley has struck out exactly three in each of his last two. He has faced the Diamondbacks and Yankees last two times out and held the contact in check with a reasonable 40% hard hit rate on the nose. Not only is the K-BB down six points, but pitch modeling is seeing a decline too (4.99 Bot ERA, 90 Pitching+). Some concern here. Batters from either side are between a .299 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: 4/-3
B30: 3.73
BSR: -2
I don’t really have a full handle on the park situation here, but Statcast has it as a positive, though not crazy run environment (106), very power friendly, but surprisingly more so to RHBs (129 HR factor vs 116) so far. Google says around 80 degrees here and since the Royals don’t strike out a ton anyway, maybe it’s bats or bust here, but Lorenzon sure is cheap on DK ($6.8K).
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Against teams that Garrett Crochet has never pitched for, he has struck out 26 of 100 batters with 12 walks, though his SwStr has only been below 13% against the Blue Jays in these starts. While the fastball and cutter are still grading as well above average pitches, his velocity remains down from last season and he’s lost a run of Bot ERA (3.54) along with 16 points of Pitching+ (100). I heard a quote from Crochet where he said he was trying too hard to be a pitcher and needs to go back to being a thrower, which is not exactly the type of thing you want to hear a pitcher say. I think he’ll figure it out. His worst estimator is that 3.54 Bot ERA, but this may not be an ideal spot for him because the Blue Jays don’t strike out.
Opp wRC+: 139
DEF: -3/0
B30: 3.40
BSR: 0
Bowden Francis (not yet confirmed) entered his last start with exactly three barrels allowed in three of four starts and a hard hit rate north of 50%. The Astros hit just four batted balls hard (21.1%). However, Bowden struck out just two and has an 8.3 SwStr% on the season to go with his 11.5 K-BB%, which is down more than five points from last season. The grading on his splitter (47 PB, 61 P+) has really fallen off and is a pitch the Red Sox have handled well in a small sample (1.91 wFS is second best), but Bowden’s 3.97 Bot ERA and 102 Pitching+ aren’t far off from last year’s marks.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 1/5
B30: 3.31
BSR: 1
I seem to be more concerned about Bowden Francis than pitch modeling and don’t think I’d use him here for around $8K. LHBs have a .343 xwOBA that’s near 50 points better than their actual results against him since last year. As mentioned, I think this is a spot to not necessarily attack Crochet, but probably fade him against a low strikeout lineup.
Diamondbacks @ Mets
Twenty-one of Eduardo Rodriguez’s 34 strikeouts have come in just a pair of road starts in Miami and Washington. If that NL East pattern continues…well, it probably won’t. They are the only two starts where he’s reached a double digit SwStr% this year and in the Washington case barely at exactly 10%. Despite the 22 K-BB% (which I’m confident will regress), E-Rod’s .342 BABIP and 61 LOB% will also regress in the other direction. He’s always managed contact well when healthy (35.4 HardHit% this year, 32.6% career) and his pitch modeling suggests Rodriguez’s best stuff since 2021 (3.89 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/3
B30: 3.37
BSR: 4
Last year, just eight of David Peterson’s 26 barrels have left the yard, this year, it’s two of five so far, while he’s improved over five points on both his K-BB (16%) and GB rate (55.7%). However, the problems we have here are that his hard hit rate is up to 51.9% and his SwStr rate down to 8.1%, giving him a unsustainable 2.91 K/SwStr. That would increase his estimators, all of which are below his 3.29 ERA, except for a 4.36 xERA and 4.11 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: -1/-2
B30: 3.08
BSR: 3
Great run environment normally. Google says it’s going to be windy. Don’t know in which direction yet. I think this is a dead DFS game. E-Rod’s price has escalated, due to those two big strikeout games and Peterson’s from having a strikeout rate his swinging strike rate can’t support. These are not a pair of offenses you want to attack either, nor do I see a lot of offensive upside here.
Brewers @ White Sox
Freddy Peralta seems to be anything except consistent. He’s still sitting on an 18.4 K-BB% that matches last year, but since striking out eight in each of his first two starts, he struck out six in each of his next two and now a total of eight over his last two. His 6.3 SwStr% against San Francisco last time out was his first effort below 15% though. His fastball velocity was a season low 94.3 mph, which is probably why he threw a season high 15.8% sliders (though also 61.1% fastballs). With just 5.7% Barrels/BBE and a 31.8 HardHit%, it’s hard to complain about his season numbers so far, despite the merely average pitch modeling results.
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.99
BSR: 1
Bryse Wilson got through 16 Twins on 55 pitches in his first start of the season, yet failed to complete three innings. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 1/-6
B30: 4.21
BSR: 1
A couple of things here. If you think Peralta’s velocity may have been down due to cooler San Francisco weather, it may only be around 50 degrees in Chicago on Tuesday night. That said, it is pitcher friendly weather and Peralta may be the top pitcher on the board. However, he’s also extremely expensive and perhaps adequately priced on DraftKings, while a better value for $100 less on FanDuel. I’m sure the weather takes away the joy of attacking Wilson and the Chicago bullpen.
Athletics @ Rangers
The only current clue I have to who is pitching this game is Joey Estes listed on Roster Resource and the current line listed on Fanduel (-205/+172) would be in the correct range for that to happen. Estes has allowed at least a .328 wOBA and xwOBA to batters from either side of the plate since last year and has allowed almost as many barrels (five) as ground balls (six) through two starts this season with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five).
Update: Jack Lopez is now listed. He's been a reliever. This is either a full bullpen game or a bulk game with I don't know who following. Or, perhaps Lopez is stretched out enough to five them a few innings. Lopez is left-handed.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: -14/-7
B30: 3.78
BSR: 2
Jacob deGrom has been above a 13 SwStr% in every start except the Dodgers. His 1.73 K/SwStr should improve and drive up his 17.6 K-BB% closer to 20%. Still, if deGrom is going to sustain this velocity below 97 mph, whether intentionally or not, the glory days are probably gone. That said, there’s nothing wrong with a 20 K-BB% (should he achieve it) to go along with a 2.33 Bot ERA and 124 Pitching+. LHBs still have a .378 wOBA and .354 wOBA against him since last year with RHBs below .230. DeGrom also only has one quality start, reaching 90 pitches just once (against the Dodgers).
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 3/3
B30: 3.38
BSR: 1
I find deGrom to be fine in the $9K price range, though the dangerous matchup and workload issues stop him short of being a top arm or value on Tuesday night. Otherwise, we want Texas bats from either side here, along with some Oakland LHBs on the contrarian side of things.
Tigers @ Astros
Reese Olson is coming off his best pair of starts of the season, shutting out the Royals and Padres over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 47 batters. Fastball, changeup, slider all above a 60 PB grade and 115 Pitching+ in his last start. All grade well for the season too. A 3.97 Bot ERA is his best career mark. There’s still enough residue from a poor start to the season that I don’t want to quote a lot of overall numbers because I feel he’s found his way. With RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, Olson should continue his upward path against the Astros.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 1/2
B30: 3.74
BSR: 0
Ryan Gusto has been a one trick pony, but that one trick is pretty awesome (fastball 94 mph, 55.9%, 19” iVB, 61 PB, 111 P+, 1 wRC+, 17.8 SwStr%). No, that 1 wRC+ is not a misprint. You do worry that batters will eventually figure it out, but for now, his worst estimator is a 3.52 dERA with a 21.2 K-BB%, but a 49.2 HardHit% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE is something to be concerned about. LHBs have a .349 wOBA and .396 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 12/7
B30: 3.11
BSR: 3
I think Olson has some value in this spot. Alvarez is the only guy I’m interested in from the Houston lineup. While I don’t fully trust Gusto until he learns a second trick, I have to admit to the upside at cheap cost. This is an improved Detroit lineup with some dangerous LHBs though, so I think it’s reasonable to grab some exposure on both sides here.
Braves @ Rockies
I waited as long as I could for this one, as A.J. Smith-Shawver is still not confirmed, but remains the best guess. In 43.1 innings, he has just a 10.6 K-BB% (though 13.8% through three starts this year). He’s also allowed six barrels with a 40% hard hit rate in those three starts (Padres, Marlins, Rays). The new split, replacing his changeup, is AJSS’s only above average pitch (59 PB, 122 P+). A 4.80 Bot ERA and 94 Pitching+ are the best of his career.
Opp wRC+: 67
DEF: 5/6
B30: 4.09
BSR: 0
Since shutting out the Phillies through six innings in his first start of the season, German Marquez has allowed at least three runs in every start and only one of them was at Coors. With a 3.0 K-BB% and 48.6 HardHit%, it’s a wonder he’s only allowed three barrels with a career low 38 GB%. A career low by 7.2 points. Non-FIP estimators all exceed five with batters from either side of the plate above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -4/2
B30: 4.49
BSR: 1
With a six and a half team run total on a board where nobody else is really above five, you obviously want Atlanta bats here. Despite the mid-50s temps, this will still play as an above average run environment. There’s a light wind out to right field. AJSS is cheap enough with enough upside to consider at a low price. The Rockies strike out a ton and conditions in the park should keep them a below average offense tonight. A 4.51 implied run line isn’t nothing, but this lineup doesn’t have a single projected batter reaching a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season with Michael Toglia’s .209 ISO topping the lineup by more than 10 points.
Angels @ Mariners
Jack Koch has struck out just five of his last 71 batters with as many walks and has just a 4.4 K-BB% on the year. Even with a 48.4 GB%, 9.9% Barrels/BBE and a matching 48.4 HardHit% are a concern because he allows so much contact. Batters from the left-hand side have a .345 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him since last year, while RHBs are at exactly .317 (wOBA & xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 133
DEF: 2/-5
B30: 4.01
BSR: 0
Bryce Miller K-BB% at home…
Career: 20% (6.3 points higher than on the road)
2024: 24% (12.8 points higher)
2025: 9.1% (1.7 points LOWER)
What the heck happened here? He’s had just two home starts. That said, he’s only struck out more than five against the Reds and walked at least two in every start. The result has been zero quality starts. His velocity is down 0.7 mph with reduced pitch modeling (4.87 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+) with a 44.3 HardHit%. Yes, I’m a bit concerned, but RHBs have a career .224 wOBA in this park with a 24 K-BB% against Miller, while the Angels are nearly as right-handed as the Astros.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -5/-3
B30: 3.91
BSR: 1
To start with, even with his current issues, Bryce Miller has a 3.67 xERA that’s more than a run and a half better than his opponent. Offensively, the Mariners blow the Angels away this year. Perhaps the park is hiding some of the effects, but this Seattle offense has had a stellar month. I played the Mariners (-158) F5.
Daily fantasy wise, if you can’t just Jack for just $5.5K on DK in this park, you can’t use Jack. You probably can’t use Jack. And with a 4.42 implied run line, I’d endorse Seattle bats. I have Miller as a decent value in this spot, hopefully a bounce back in a great spot, but can’t say I’m not at least a bit concerned. Either way, I have little interest in Angels’ bats.
Giants @ Padres
As I’ve mentioned before, Logan Webb’s new cutter isn’t good (9.9%, 42 PB, 80 P+), but it’s there and gives opponents another look. The sinker, slider and change are all above average at worst, resulting in a career best 3.08 Bot ERA and a 112 Pitching+ that ties each of his last two seasons. Increased reliance on the slider (13 SwStr%) with increased swing and miss on the changeup (22.2% - perhaps the influence of the cutter) has resulted in a career high 30.8 K% with a near three point gain in SwStr rate from last year (11.3%), all while dropping his hard hit rate more than five points from the last two seasons and maintaining a 55.7 GB%. LHBs have lost 31 points of wOBA against him and increased by seven points of K-BB% since last season.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -7/-2
B30: 3.32
BSR: 1
Nick Pivetta has pivoted from the predictable arm angle change on the sweeper that made RHBs so effective against him last season (.345 wOBA to .269 this year) with increased reliance on cutters and curves, resulting in a 2.94 Bot ERA and 107 Pitching+. Pivetta has allowed a total of one run in his four quality starts, though he’s only exceeded six strikeouts once, while he probably won’t sustain the .205 BABIP, 88 LOB% or 2.9 HR/FB with just one of his six barrels leaving the yard. The good news is that a 20.7 K-BB% is something strong to fall back on, while Pivetta’s contact profile is league average. His worst estimator is a 4.11 dERA, but just below that is a 3.38 xFIP with all remaining estimators lower.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -4/-2
B30: 3.19
BSR: 3
Normally, you don’t want to roster daily fantasy pitchers against the Padres, but with all their left-handed injuries, Webb is up there with Peralta as my top two pitchers on the day, but also so expensive that values are marginal. Pivetta is just as expensive with a bit less value. He’s adequately priced. This is a pitcher friendly park where I’m not interested in bats against these two pitchers.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Sandy Alcantara posted his first quality start last time out, but at three runs over six innings, did the bare minimum. He’s struck out just 10 of his last 80 batters with eight walks and a 51.6 GB%. The only really good news here is that he’s keeping the ball on the ground (59.2%). The velocity is fine (97.4 mph), though it is down a bit more on the sinker (96.8). Alcantara’s pitch modeling is down, but not terrible (3.73 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+). A larger problem to focus on is that LHBs have a .325 wOBA, but .392 xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 5/0
B30: 4.88
BSR: -1
Looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers, who have gone from best rotation in the game to where's the rotation?
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.59
BSR: 0
Dodger bats (5.01 team run total) are really the only reasonable recommendation here.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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