We start the week with eight games on Monday, one in the afternoon and six on the main daily fantasy slate, starting a half hour earlier with just one late, west coast affair. Lots of very close games, most slightly favoring road teams (at least the way they appear in spreadsheets) and just about every park should play towards their standard factors without much in the way of colder temperatures or wind.
Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Mets @ Nationals
Griffin Canning has allowed just nine runs through five starts and four of them came in Sacramento (or New Coors). I cautioned about continued fastball usage after he dominated the Cardinals with it up high two starts back and Canning still dropped from 44.1% in that start to just 33.3% against the fastball hammering Phillies, despite throwing it harder than any previous start this season. I love this willingness to adjust and hope he’ll do the same against another fastball hammering team (WSH 0.93 wFA/C is second best in MLB), that has susceptibility to the slider (-1.59 wSL/C is second worst) and change (-1.61 wCH/C is worst). Canning exceeds a 55 Pitching Bot and 110 Pitching+ grade on both pitches, representing 60.9% of the pitches he’s thrown this year. A 4.18 Bot ERA is Canning’s only estimator reaching four. His new ground ball lean (53.4%), has helped him limit barrels (5.4%), despite a frightening 47.4 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -1/-2
B30: 2.96
BSR: -1
Back to back one run outings, though Trevor Williams still hasn’t exceeded five innings in a start and I don’t know why pitch modeling continues to love his 87.3 mph fastball, which has exceeded a 60 PB grade with at least a 110 Pitching+ in each and every start. I mean, it’s location (duh), but still. He’s not missing bats (18.9 K%, 8.9 SwStr%), but he’s limiting walks (6.3%) and barrels (6.0%), which has value. Williams’ worst estimator is a 4.20 dERA that’s still nearly a run below his 5.11 ERA (.363 BABIP).
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 4.48
BSR: 2
Listen, I don’t even trust the report I just gave on Williams. If I did, the Nationals might be a play. They still might be if it crawls much higher. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Twins @ Guardians
Bailer Ober’s fastball (38.2%, 55 PB, 109 P+) has the highest cumulative run value on the slate today (+5), even if it is coming in a mph slower than last year (90.7). It hasn’t exceeded an average velocity of 91 mph in any of his five starts. The slider (17.5 SwStr%) and change (17%) are the real reason he’s exceeded a 12 SwStr% in four straight games with three consecutive quality starts (17.6 K-BB%). That’s your reason for hope, despite a 5.04 ERA, but the matching 5.00 xERA is a reason for concern. With a career low 24.7 GB%, Ober combines eight barrels (10.1%) with his career worst hard hit rate (49.4%). His reverse split (LHBs below .280 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) should help against a Cleveland offense that has seen him a ton though.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 0/4
B30: 3.48
BSR: -2
Gavin Williams struck out a season high eight of 26 Yankees last time out in his first quality start of the season. It wasn’t that the stuff was better, but Williams tied a season best 102 Location+ and had his second best PB command grade (58) in the start. While PitchingBot considers the fastball a strong pitch (59), Pitching+ disagrees (98) and doesn’t see any of his pitches above average (95 Pitching+ overall). With an 11.0 BB% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE remaining, Williams has a 4.15 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of every estimator except for a 5.27 xERA at this point.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 3.31
BSR: 2
Both of these pitchers live and die on their fastballs, despite the wide difference in velocity. Both have struggled, but looked at their best most recently.
Yankees @ Orioles
If you look at the pure stuff grades on Will Warren’s arsenal, you can easily see the talent within and you’d probably be shocked to find out he’s only allowed more than two runs in a single one of his five starts. But what about the 4.79 ERA? That’s where the command comes in. Pitch modeling thinks it’s average (51 PB, 102 L+), but the 11.5 BB% is a major reason why he hasn’t recorded a sixth inning out yet. He’s also only exceeded a league average SwStr% in one start. Getting himself in poor counts too often, opposing batters have just a 22.6% chase rate Opponents are also only swinging at 50.5% of Warren’s pitches in the zone too.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 4/6
B30: 3.62
BSR: 2
With just a 7.0 SwStr%, you’d expect a poor strikeout rate from Tomoyuki Sugano, but not just 8.0%. He has faced some of the most contact prone offenses in the league (TOR 2x, KCR, CLE, WSH), but don’t expect him to go on a strikeout spree now. His low whiff rates are going to make a barrel rate of 11.2% on contact really hurt as some point with a 4.4 BB% his only saving grace. Sugano’s 3.54 ERA is more than a run and a quarter below every estimator (.228 BABIP, 89.4 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 xwOBA against him. Sugano throws six different pitches between 13% and 25% of the time and the only one pitch modeling agrees is above average is the curveball (13%, 56, 107).
Opp wRC+: 125
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 4.14
BSR: -1
We’ve reached the daily fantasy portion of our day. While you can bet on Will Warren’s upside on the cheap as an SP2 on DK, I’d really much rather go with bats here. Mostly Yankees, but an O’s stack could work too if Warren can’t find the strike zone again.
Cardinals @ Reds
Andre Pallante continues to generate ground balls at an extremely high rate without a sinker (67.4%), but the K-BB has dropped from an already low 9.0 K-BB% last season to 5.4% through five starts, while his hard hit rate has climbed from 36.7% to 45.3%. The fastball is down nearly a mph with declined grading (47 PB, 106 P+), resulting in a 5.21 Bot ERA and 98 Pitching+ (also both a decline). Despite the high ground ball rate, batters have a 139 wRC+ against the fastball this year, 45 points higher than last season. Pallante’s contact neutral estimators are below four, while contact inclusive ones are above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 14/8
B30: 4.11
BSR: 1
With an ERA exceeding five, Nick Martinez does not have a quality start this season. Is it really that bad? His ground ball rate is down to 31.3% (five point drop) with a decline in his contact profile to just league average (this was a strength last year). However, when you add in the five point drop in K-BB (12.2%), well, yeah, now we have problems, especially in this park, where three of his five barrels have gone out in just two starts. Now for the good news. He’s thrown five different pitches between 10% and 20% of the time and all of their pitch modeling grades are up and above average, resulting in an overall 3.71 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ where are better than and equal to last year. There may be a path back and batters from either side of the plate are still below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 4/1
B30: 4.63
BSR: 1
Pallante in this park is a killer. You can’t roster him, but he keeps the ball on the ground so often that it’s probably a full on stack or nothing. You gotta hope to BABIP him. Martinez is not in a great spot at all, but he’s cheap (barely more than $7K) and that makes him potentially one of the better values on the board, though certainly not without risk.
Athletics @ Rangers
Whether you’re right or left-handed you’re getting a fastball or sweeper from J.P. Sears. That’s 86.5% of his pitches and they perform much better against LHBs than RHBs (.329 wOBA, .338 xwOBA), as you would expect. He could potentially be facing nine opposite handed batters here with Seager out. Sears has three quality starts this season, all on the road, though his 3.21 ERA is more than half a run below all of his estimators, due to an 83.9 LOB% and career low .259 BABIP. His K-BB is tied for a career best (14.7%), but his 9.0 SwStr% is his worst in three years. It’s still early and pitch modeling still thinks the sweeper is elite (62 PB, 119 P+), resulting in a 3.50 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+, which are much better than his more traditional estimators.
Opp wRC+: 86
DEF: -14/-7
B30: 3.78
BSR: 1
No quality starts, but Patrick Corbin has allowed just six runs through 14.1 innings. He’s cut down on both his fastball and sinker usage in favor of more cutters (25%), which graded as his best pitch both last year and so far this season (70 PB, 117 P+). That’s potentially an elite pitch, but he’s only thrown 61 so far. RHBs still exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Corbin since last year, but his hard hit rate is down 10 points (35.4%) with just three barrels. However, his K-BB is currently a career low 7.9%. Again, we’re dealing with a small sample here.
Opp wRC+: 131
DEF: 3/-1
B30: 3.34
BSR: 1
Assuming a closed roof, this is a park upgrade for Sears, who is, ridiculously, the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel. Even where he’s $1.1K less on DraftKings, he’s likely accurately priced. Corbin at $7K on DraftKings would normally be something to ignore, but is a bit of a head scratcher today. You might be able to do it on this slate, but you still certainly want some RHB exposure on both sides.
Tigers @ Astros
Last year, Jack Flaherty struggled in games where he failed to exceed 93 mph on his fastball, mostly late in the season. This year, he’s only been above 93 mph in his first start and is down 0.6 mph overall. But Flaherty is using it just as often (44%) with a reduced grade (48 PB, 102 P+) and is thriving with a 22.5 K-BB% and 38.8 HardHit%. Both of those are a bit worse than last season overall, but better than his post-trade numbers. The curveball (67 wRC+, 22.1 SwStr%, 59 PB, 115 P+) has retained it’s dominance. The rest of the arsenal is a concern (4.73 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+) though, but other estimators only get up to 3.55 (dERA, xERA). Expect some regression on the 84.7 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 1/4
B30: 3.79
BSR: 0
Ronel Blanco is coming off his first quality start of the season, but struck out just three Blue Jays. He does have a double digit SwStr% in all five starts, but they haven’t translated to strikeouts (20%), mostly due to his 12% walk rate. Blanco has managed contact extremely well though (30.9 HardHit%, resulting in a 3.62 xERA that’s Blanco’s only estimator more than a run below his 5.01 ERA, though none reach five. His fastball velocity has ticked up with every start and is now sitting exactly where it did last year on average, but Pitching+ has graded it below average in every start and gives the entire arsenal just a 91 grade to go with his 4.84 Bot ERA. The BABIP has only risen from a completely unsustainable .220 last season to a potentially sustainable .262 with a great defense behind him, but the strand rate is down from 83.6% to 68.3%.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 12/8
B30: 3.09
BSR: 3
Flaherty is currently my top overall pitcher on the board, though it’s close enough where that could change once weather, lineups and umpires are updated. The problem is that he’s expensive and not necessarily a good value, while the reverse split hurts him in this spot. Blanco, on the other hand, Is cheap enough to have some value against an improved Detroit lineup, but one that will still strike out and he should improve upon a 1.52 K/SwStr.
Braves @ Rockies
Bryce Elder posted his first quality start of the season, allowing a single run to the Cardinals, despite failing to strike out more than he walked for the second straight time. His pitch metrics continue to be strong (3.95 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), almost entirely on the strength of his slider (61 PB, 114 P+), despite a marginal 12 SwStr% and a 119 wRC+ against. I will grant that he’s allowed eight home runs on just six barrels with a 37.5 HardHit% and 56.9GB%, so the 6.13 FIP may be out of line, but he still has a 4.50 xERA that’s perfectly in line with his contact neutral estimators that go along with a 4.3 K-BB%. LHBs exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 67
DEF: 5/6
B30: 4.05
BSR: 0
Ryan Feltner three hit the Royals in Kansas City last time out over seven innings, striking out four of 24 batters with just one walk, but his 9.1 K-BB% is down 3.3 points, while his fastball continues to be down a mph, resulting in a decline in the entire arsenal (4.96 Bot ERA is half a run worse than 2024, 84 Pitching+ is exactly 10 points worse). It does show in the contact profile (42.3 HardHit%), though he does have a career high 45.5 GB% and 11.9 SwStr%. It’s likely small sample wonkiness. Because he’s only allowed 5.1% Barrels/BBE, Feltner’s 3.40 xERA is his only estimator below a 3.86 ERA. In fact, its more than three-quarters of a run below any other estimator.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -4/2
B30: 4.64
BSR: 1
Coors may be the coolest spot on the board in terms of temperature, but still likely the top run environment (unless Texas opens the roof). We obviously want bats here.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Edward Cabrera is up to his old tricks, walking eight of 67 batters, turning a 26.9 K% into just a 14.9 K-BB%. That’s actually a career best, but still not ideal and below expectations that he’s failed to live up to for half a decade now. His 35 GB% is a career low, which has allowed a 35% hard hit rate to turn into four barrels (10%). The interesting thing is that he dropped his fastball last start and went 29.9% sinkers and the pitch was up to 97.3 mph. He’s also throwing more sliders, giving him four pitches he’s throwing between 20.5% and 26.8% of the time, as opposed to just three main pitches last year, one of which was that fastball that he threw just once last start. The fastball has always graded below average because he couldn’t control it, while the sinker is a potential elite pitch (58 PB, 120 P+), resulting in a half run drop in Bot ERA (4.43) and small increase in Pitching+ (99). There’s certainly still room to grow, but it’s interesting. Cabrera’s 3.89 SIERA and 3.75 xERA are well below his 6.14 ERA (67.4 LOB%, three of four barrels have been home runs).
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 5/0
B30: 4.90
BSR: -1
The Cubs finally shelled Dustin May for seven runs last time out and with his .156 BABIP without a home run prior, you could see it coming. May is down 2.3 mph on the season and his velocity has dropped with each start. The fastball has been awful (39 PB, 66 P+), yet is still a pitch being thrown 21.6% of the time, despite the sinker’s dominance (33.4%, 62 PB, 118 P+), even at it’s similarly reduced velocity. The new slider (39.4%, 53, 104 P+) is at least decent. The 3.78 Bot ERA and 96 Pitching+ aren’t terrible, but it’s really the 54 GB% holding estimators in line with his 3.68 ERA, despite the 10.9 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.29
BSR: 0
May is in line with a handful of guys just behind Flaherty, but is also quite expensive. Paying down for pitching might be the way to go on Monday. I think May will be overused in this spot. And admittedly, it’s a nice spot, but the Marlins are actually top half of the league against fastballs (0.07 wFA/C) and his continued usage could get him in some trouble here. I actually have Cabrera rated similarly (though much more volatile) because the Dodgers have been very beatable since their 8-0 start with six batters in their regular lineup against RHP above a 21 K% against RHP since last year. Cabrera could just as easily fall apart, but he does have some upside here and his $8K price is reasonable on this slate. Now, the Marlins can’t compete offensively or in the bullpen and I’ll give May the overall advantage, but I don’t have this game anywhere near the current line of +270. I don’t expect the Marlins to win, but still think there’s a lot of value in that line.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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