Friday 4/25 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Published on 25 April 2025 at 00:03

We’re blessed with an afternoon game at Wrigley on Friday and a large 12 game daily fantasy slate, which seems to be about as big as they get the last few years and that’s fine with me. Anything more feels like too much. We finish with an unprecedented six late west coast affairs.

We spend a month building a 5.7 unite cushion so we can withstand a clobbering like what happened on just an eight game Thursday. 

CWS/MIN u8.5 is 3-0 in the 8th when the game is called and totals voided. 

SEA takes a 4-1 lead on Crochet in the top of the 2nd and we can't catch 8. 

WSH takes a 1-0 lead into the top of the 5th and not only can Gore not hold it, he gives up the tying run and go ahead for an F5 loss

Pirates take a 3-0 lead, blow that and lose on a home run in the eighth 4-3, leading yesterday's only win, under 8.5 in a game that was 3-3 in the third. 

A's take a 2-0 lead on deGrom in the second, but Ginn can't hold it for five innings. 

A new day, a lot of work ahead.

We are fully immersed in 2025 statistics, though recognizing their small sample sizes where needed. Legend at the bottom of the page.

If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.

Phillies @ Cubs

Taijuan Walker has been better than last year, where it would have been nearly impossible to be worse, but don’t confuse his 2.29 ERA for a strong start with a .236 BABIP and 81.1 LOB%. He owns a 9.6 BB% and K-BB%, but has managed contact much better, cracking his barrel rate in half (7.0%) with a double digit point reduction in hard hit rate (35.1%). A 5.13 Bot ERA and 96 Pitching+ are improvements from last year, but not actually good. RHBs have given him more trouble (7.5 K-BB%) with a .364 wOBA and above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.

Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: 1/0
B30: 4.09
BSR: 3

His velocity up a mph, Colin Rea has struck out 12 of 56 batters with a single walk and he’s faced the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in his two starts, allowing just two barrels with a 37.2 HardHit%. He’s throwing that harder fastball 47.1% of the time (more than twice last year or the year before’s usage). It’s still not the best pitch, but average enough to set up an improving slider, at least according to pitch model grading (55 PB, 107 P+).

Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 1/1
B30: 4.33
BSR: 0

I’m showing a slightly higher edge on the Cubs F5 than full game, even at a slightly higher price (-142 vs -130) and I’m glad for that because the Chicago bullpen has made me sick each time I’ve seen it this month. The Cubs may be the better team. They’ve certainly started off better offensively, They’re better defensively and are a deeper team too. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Orioles @ Tigers

The number six product of the Baltimore system, according to recent Fangraphs rankings, Young is a "big league ready no. 4/5 starter on a contender”. While he walked and struck out three each in his major league debut against the Reds, Young is considered a strong command type. Young returned from Tommy John surgery last year sitting 92.5 mph, but is up a mph through his four combined starts this year. Pitch modeling liked the cutter and curve in his debut.

Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -6/-5
B30: 4.08
BSR: 1

Blegh, Casey Mize’s 11.6 K-BB% is the same as his career rate and is not even generating ground balls anymore (38.6%). It looks like Skubal may be their only big win from their recent class of strong pitching prospects.

Opp wRC+: 128
DEF: 1/1
B30: 3.70
BSR: 0

Mets @ Nationals

Kodai Senga has struck out exactly four and walked two in three straight starts, but did not allow a single hard hit batted ball of the 15 the Cardinals hit last time out. His velocity is also up a mph (95+) over his last two starts. It’s hard to dig deeper into individual pitches because the ghost fork gets misclassified. I just don’t feel like he’s fully gotten into his rhythm yet, despite the results (0.79 ERA, .241 BABIP, 88 LOB%, one home run on two barrels).

Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -3/-4
B30: 3.08
BSR: -1

I began as a Jake Irvin denier, but the man just keeps growing on me. Not very much you can do against Colorado can be considered impressive, but he struck out nine of 23 at Coors last time out and has pitched to a strong 17.1 K-BB% through a solid schedule (Dodgers, Diamondbacks) through five starts. The barrels (13.4%) and hard hit rate (46.3%), but I just told you some of the teams he’s faced. Irvin is really leaning into the curve more than ever (37.3%, 57 PB, 105 P+) and it’s paying dividends (14.5 SwStr%, 37 wRC+ against).

Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -2/-3
B30: 4.72
BSR: 1

Where is it? I mean the big Mets edge here? If this game were being played later in the season, I’d expect Senga to be the better pitcher and the Mets offense to be ahead of Washington’s, but those things may not be true right now. I really think people are undervaluing the Nationals right now and the red hot Mets may be a bit overvalued at the same time. I’ll take my chances with the Washington bullpen for the better full game price (+156), but show almost as much value at +142 F5.

Blue Jays @ Yankees

Jose Berrios picked up his second quality start in five tries last time out and he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out in both of them. With a career worst 9.1 K-BB% and already 11 barrels (13.1%), Barrios’s 5.02 ERA is nearly befitting the underlying numbers. His velocity is down and the pitch modeling grades have suffered (4.31 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+), as the changeup is the only offering they see as a plus pitch. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .310 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Berrios since last year and this is a spot where you should probably be targeting bats.

Opp wRC+: 128
DEF: 4/-1
B30: 3.13
BSR: 1

With an 8.9 K-BB%, nine barrels (13.2%) and 42.6 HardHit%, Carlos Carrasco has similar numbers to Berrios, but is considered to be on his way out. While it hasn’t been good, his Pitching+ has actually gone from 86 to 90 since last season with a slight reduction in Bot ERA (4.76 to 4.86). Batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Carrasco since last year.

Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.55
BSR: 0

For sure, you want bats from this game in your daily fantasy lineups, despite two very cheap pitchers on DraftKings. Alternatively, I just see the Yankee offensive advantage as so large that I can’t understand this line (-135). I have F5 similarly rated because Toronto’s bullpen estimators have actually been better so far.

Red Sox @ Guardians

We can’t trust that Tanner Houck has put himself back together after torching the White Sox, when he gave up a pair of touchdowns to the Rays in his previous start and only struck out more than he walked in one of his first four. Even including the Chicago dominance, he has a 6.4 K-BB% and 50% hard hit rate. The only saving grace is a 52.5 GB%. The pitch modeling is either fine (100 P+) or below average (4.39 Bot ERA), depending upon who you trust and while he’s reigned in some of his difficulties against LHBs over the last year, they still have a .323 xwOBA against him that exceeds actual results by 30 points. Cleveland wouldn’t appear to be a favorable matchup for him in this regard, though he does get a park upgrade.

Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -5/-5
B30: 3.56
BSR: -2

Ben Lively does not have a quality start yet, despite a pair of no run outings in his last three. Unfortunately, the 10.8 K-BB% and 44% hard hit rate don’t match those positive results. The SwStr is down to 7.2% and Lively doesn’t have a pitch reaching either a 50 PB or 90 P+ grade. LHBs are within a point of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Lively since last year.

Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.28
BSR: 1

I think you want bats here too, but Houck is now so cheap that it’s tempting in a pitcher’s park. You certainly want LHBs against Lively, though Devers looks lost right now.

Astros @ Royals

Aside from a 10 strikeout performance against the Angels two starts back, Hayden Wesneski has been solid, not spectacular at the back of the Houston rotation, probably more than they deserve. Even without that start, he’s struck out 16 of 67 batters with four walks and posted a > 10.5 SwStr% in every start. There are some concerns in the contact profile (eight barrels, 50% hard hit rate), which push his xERA (4.11) more than a run above his SIERA (2.91), but Houston would probably be fine with the former number. Pitch modeling confirms the solid production (3.33 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+), led by a sweeper (25%, 61 PB, 120 P+) the Royals may have trouble handling (-0.48 wSL/C).

Opp wRC+: 63
DEF: 8/1
B30: 3.12
BSR: -1

If you’re waiting for Seth Lugo to bounce back from his marginally slow start (3.90) ERA, be careful. That’s right where his SIERA (4.02) and xFIP (3.93) since last season reside. Want to say the park suppresses power? Okay, 3.52 FIP, except that his 8.3 K-BB% is half of last year’s 15.9% and his hard hit rate has gone from 39% to 46.6%, while his SwStr is a career low 7.9% (a 1.6 point drop). Pitch modeling is not at all buying what he’s selling (5.24 Bot ERA, 87 Pitching+). A .244 BABIP and 81.1 LOB% are actually propping him up. Even RHBs are above a .330 wOBA against him this year, which gives him no benefit in facing the Astros here.

Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 4.26
BSR: 0

Again, I’m showing near equal value on F5 and full game and I could understand if you really just wanted to attack Lugo, but the Astros, who have had their own problems, still have the Royals outclassed in every aspect here. Unfortunately, the Royals still make too much contact in a positive run environment and Wesneski exceeds $8K now. He’s actually $1K more than Lugo right now. Sure, throw in a Houston stack in GPPs if you’re playing 20 lineups, but this is not the game we’re looking for from a daily fantasy standpoint.

Angels @ Twins

Kyle Hendricks has been smoked for eight runs and two home runs over his last nine innings (Astros & Giants). The crazy thing is he hasn’t allowed a barrel with just a 29 HardHit% (25% on the year), has walked five of 38 batters with just two strikeouts. Hendricks has only had a hard hit rate above 33.4% once in his career and it wasn’t last year, so that may be somewhat sustainable, but there’s some disagreement with pitch modeling (3.71 Bot ERA, 93 Pitching+) and he really has no upside for any of your purposes today. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, but the Twins are a predominantly right-handed lineup with some injuries right now.

Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 4.41
BSR: 1

Pablo Lopez returns from a hamstring injury with three starts prior to the IL trip and one rehab start in which he struck out four of 17 batters under his belt. There may be some light workload limitations, bu the velocity looked in line with his earlier April work. Lopez’s 17.9 K-BB% through three is around his career rate, lower than the last few years, but the stuff was looking really good until the injury (2.69 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+). The Angels have been predominantly right-handed and Lopez has held batters from that side below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.

Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 0/4
B30: 3.56
BSR: 0

From a daily fantasy standpoint, Lopez would be a top five arm for me on a full workload and at his current price may still be usable in a strong spot here. On the other end of the spectrum, at least the few remaining Minnesota bats are cheap and hit high in the order.

Brewers @ Cardinals

Chad Patrick is coming off his best start of his rookie season, striking out seven of 23 A’s without a walk, putting him at a reasonable 12.6 K-BB% on the season (9.7 SwStr%), but without anything on the ground (29.3%) and a 43.1 HardHit%. He’s very lucky to have only allowed four barrels so far. Patrick does not have an above average pitch and owns a poor overall profile (5.80 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+). RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .380 against him, while LHBs are below .250, possibly the influence of his cutter, the only average grading pitch (100 P+) from either system.

Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -1/-1
B30: 3.92
BSR: 2

Matthew Liberatore has been a revelation in St Louis, going at least six innings in all four starts with a 22.4 K-BB%, which makes his 47.2 HardHit% more tolerable with only four barrels. The slider (29.9%, 56 PB, 113 P+) has been the star of the show. His velocity is even up to 95 mph in his last two starts, in which he’s allowed just two runs over 12.2 innings.

Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 14/10
B30: 4.08
BSR: 2

I’m on the Liberation Train! The velocity is trending up, the slider looks like a legit pitch and the results are coming. I’m not looking at Milwaukee’s 80 wRC+ as sustainable, but it’s not a fearsome bunch of RHBs and St  Louis clearly has a defensive edge as well. I’d rather stay away from the bullpens though and am backing STL -140 F5. Weather seems to look decent enough, I’m looking for right-handed Cardinals to attack Patrick with, while Liberatore is one of my top value plays for less than $8K.

Reds @ Rockies

With a 4.9 SwStr% and velocity down 1.4 mph from last year, Andrew Abbott still struck out five of 19 Pirates and allowed a single run. Down a further 0.3 mph in his second start, Abbott increased his fastball usage to 49.5% and struck out 11 of 21 Orioles with a 19.4 SwStr%. No, I don’t get it. His only positively grading pitch is the changeup (15.5%, 64 PB, 119 P+), resulting in a 5.31 Bot ERA and 90 Pitching+ through two starts.

Opp wRC+: 56
DEF: 5/3
B30: 4.72
BSR: -1

Kyle Freeland has not only sustained, but added another half a mph upon last year’s velocity increase, though that still only gets him to 92 mph and he’s not getting the results. Fortunately, the lack of results are more due to a .337 BABIP and 55.2 LOB% with a ground ball rate that’s higher than the strand rate (57.1%) and league average 14.5 K-BB%. As a result, Freeland has allowed just three barrels. Pitch modeling is improved to a 3.58 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+, both easily the best marks of his career. Perhaps the key is the addition of a cutter (13%, 56 PB, 101 P+), allowing Freeland to throw fewer fastballs.

Opp wRC+: 79
DEF: 0/4
B30: 4.81
BSR: 0

We’re looking at another cold day at Coors, which should drop the run environment somewhere closer to just slightly positive, which means we can use pitchers. Do we want to use pitchers? I don’t know how he’s getting it done, but Abbott is less than $8K on FanDuel and there are a ton of strikeouts for him in this lineup. Freeland is more than $1K cheaper and faces a lineup that may not be much better, also with some strikeouts. As a matter of fact, I may prefer pitchers to bats if we get the extremely pitcher friendly weather.

Rays @ Padres

After three dominant start to begin the season (19 IP – 3 R – 32.4 K-BB% - 32.5 HardHit%), all at home (BOS/PIT/LAA), the Yankees punished Shane Baz in Tampa last time out. He walked one more than he struck out with a 50% hard hit rate and two barrels. I’ll certainly take the total package (24.7 K-BB%, 36 HardHit%). He remains up over a mph from last year, back to his rookie velocity. All three pitches grade average to elite with a 3.86 Bot ERA and 111 Pitching+. Baz has held batters from either side of the plate to a .290 or worse wOBA and xwOBA.

Opp wRC+: 112
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 3.78
BSR: 1

Despite the annual poor initial start of the season and one more marginal one, Michael King is still sporting a strong 18.4 K-BB%, which is less than a point below last year, though the hard contact rate is up over 10 points to 43.1%. It’s below average, but he still projects a 2.93 xERA. The interesting news is the bump in pitch modeling from last season (3.43 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+). King is still one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and I can’t wait to see how he does in free agency.

Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: -5/-3
B30: 3.35
BSR: -1

The problems I have with Baz from a daily fantasy standpoint are matchup and price. He’s in a pitcher’s park with temps below 60, but it seems that can be said for a lot of parks in play tonight. Even considering the injured Padres, the projected lineup still averages below a 20% strikeout rate against RHP since last year. I like King a bit more at a similar price in against the competent Road Rays. He’s one of my top five overall pitchers tonight, but not my favorite daily fantasy rosters. Is it the new park that's pushing the Tampa Bay offense up or the young bats? 

Braves @ Diamondbacks

After walking six of his last 44 batters, Chris Sale is still sporting a 22.7 K-BB% and has been above 20% in four of five starts, while exceeding an 11 SwStr% in all of them. The problem has been in the barrels (10.3%) with a low groundball rate (37.3%), though not necessarily in the hard contact rate overall (36.8%). He’s been down about a half mph in velocity overall this year, but has been up and down from start to start. Sale has increased his slider usage to 44.4%, though the entire arsenal has declined in the eyes of pitch modeling (3.91 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+), though it seems a correctable .422 BABIP and 67.8 LOB% are the larger problems, though I’m not saying there aren’t any early command issues.

Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 3/4
B30: 4.04
BSR: 3

Things are not going well for Zac Gallen and he’s taken an odd route to a 5.60 ERA this season. His most dominant start came against the Yankees in New York (13 Ks, no runs or walks and his only hard hit rate below 40%). Outside of that, he’s struck out 16 with 13 walks, facing 98 batters. The velocity is down nearly a mph, though that was an issue last year too until he bumped up later in the season and the fastball grades are actually up slightly when including command. In fact, he has the same 4.51 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+ as last year. As with Sale, I believe this is about command right now.

Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 2/6
B30: 2.92
BSR: 1

Roof open generally makes this a neutral run environment, though I don’t think many realize that this park suppresses power slightly, especially from the left-hand side, which is better for Gallen here. I think both are adequately priced on a large slate and think there are better choices. This is likely one of the top three run environments on the board with St Louis the only other place it’s likely to reach 70 degrees. I don’t necessarily hate attacking these pitchers while they’re down.

Marlins @ Mariners

With a negative K-BB%, 7.8 SwStr% and 46.9 HardHit%, I don’t think there’s a park in the league that can save Cal Qauntrill at this point. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.

Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: 3/1
B30: 4.78
BSR: 0

Logan Gilbert K-BB% at Home…

Career: 22.5% (4.5 points higher than on the road)
2024: 25.9% (6.0 points higher)
2025: 33.3 (4.1 points higher)

While Gilbert has struck out at least seven in each start and has only allowed as many as three runs once, he’s only completed six innings in his Opening Day start. He’s not walking batters (5.6%) and throwing 90-100 pitches in each start, so I’m not sure what’s running up his pitch counts. Foul balls? His lowest SwStr rate of the season is 16% against the Rangers. A 41.7 HardHit% is not much of an issue with his peripherals and half his contact on the ground. I do have some concern with the Seattle defense.

Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -7/-6
B30: 4.01
BSR: 0

This is a rare occasion where I will endorse attacking a pitcher in this park. The Mariners have a 4.75 team run total here. On the other side, Logan Gilbert is the unquestioned top pitcher on the slate. We’re looking at lots of strikeouts in a great park and I think the pitch count/innings issue will work itself out.

White Sox @ Athletics

With just a 5.9 K-BB% and 17.3% Barrels/BBE, xERA (8.86) suggests that Sean Burke has everything that’s come to him (6.23 ERA) and then some. While LHBs have a .349 xwOBA against him in his career, RHBs also have a .349 wOBA, but .433 xwOBA.

Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 3/0
B30: 4.29
BSR: 1

Luis Severino struck out just one of the 27 Brewers he faced last time out and hasn’t seen even a 9.0 SwStr% since his first start of the season. He’s throwing his sinker a bit more than he did late last year, but still has a ground ball rate below 40%. The interesting thing is that his pitch modeling has actually improved from last season (3.68 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), but not from when he started throwing his sweeper more last August (20.3 K-BB%, 3.55 Bot ERA, 108 Pitching+). What we might be seeing here is Severino missing the effects of the celebrated Mets pitching lab.

Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: -12/-6
B30: 3.73
BSR: 2

Burke is a guy we’re attacking tonight, though it’s supposed to be below 60 in Sacramento tonight. We do see a nearly double digit wind out to left, however. Severino seems adequately priced at $8K. If rostering him, you’re looking for workload and run prevention. Four of the first six projected White Sox are below a 20 K% vs RHP since last year. I’m not sure what the true run environment is for this park. It’s been playing like Coors early on and may still be the top run environment on the board.

Pirates @ Dodgers

Paul Skenes has dropped 4.8 points of K-BB off his rookie season with both lower strikeout (25.4%) and walk (3.4%) rates, though is only 0.6 points off his SwStr from last year, currently at 12.5%. His velocity is down nearly a mph, sitting mostly at 98, but it’s difficult to see if he’s throwing a different pitch mix or if it’s just being classified differently. When we take the arsenal as a whole, his 115 Pitching+ is equal to last season, while a 3.25 Bot ERA is down more than one-third of a run. He has faced an abundance of LHBs this season, but they still are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him career. The contact profile has certainly improved (56.6 GB%, three barrels, 31.3 HardHit%).

Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 3/2
B30: 3.83
BSR: 0

Yoshi Yama hasn’t allowed an earned run in three starts and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four. His SwStr has only been below 11% in one start (Cubs). Facing a difficult group of offenses, he’s posted a 28.7 K-BB% with 63.5% of his contact on the ground and a 41.8 HardHit%, but just three barrels. All of his pitch grades have improved, resulting in a 3.05 Bot ERA and 115 Pitching+. There were some problems with his fastball last year, but Yamamoto has arrived and the Dodgers appear ready to ride him.

Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 0/-1
B30: 3.29
BSR: 2

Yoshi Yama hasn’t allowed an earned run in three starts and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four. His SwStr has only been below 11% in one start (Cubs). Facing a difficult group of offenses, he’s posted a 28.7 K-BB% with 63.5% of his contact on the ground and a 41.8 HardHit%, but just three barrels. All of his pitch grades have improved, resulting in a 3.05 Bot ERA and 115 Pitching+. There were some problems with his fastball last year, but Yamamoto has arrived and the Dodgers appear ready to ride him.

Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 0/-1
B30: 3.29
BSR: 2

I regard the pitching as evenly matched here. Skenes actually has the slightly lower xERA this year. While the Dodgers certainly have the edges in every other area (offense, defense, bullpen – though not base running), the line simply was too large and I would have been comfortable playing the Pirates at anything above 165. I’m not saying the Dodgers are overrated, but they’re not exactly young and have just a team 98 wRC+ since starting 8-0, while playing .500 ball.

From a daily fantasy perspective, I have Yamamoto a bit behind Gilbert, mostly due to the significant difference in run environment. Seattle is generally the most negative in the league, while Dodger Stadium is around neutral and very power friendly. As Yamamoto is also the most expensive pitcher on the board, unless you’re thinking about ownership on a 12 game slate, I’m siding with Gilbert more often. Not much cheaper, I view Skenes as adequately priced and an alternate contrarian possibility. We’re certainly not targeting bats here.

Rangers @ Giants

Except for a single start where Nathan Eovaldii sat 91.9 mph in the cold Wrigley weather, he’s been pitching well despite still sitting a mph down from last season. His only two walks of the season came in that Chicago start, leading to a 24.6 K-BB% with a 50.6 GB%, though eight barrels (9.9%) and a 44.4 HardHit%, but he’s been in that latter range for years. Eovaldi is attacking less often with that reduced fastball (37.4% to 29.6%) and more with the curveball (13.7% to 22.6%), though the grading on the former has actually increased (56 PB, 101 P+ vs 53, 91 last year). Eovaldi’s entire arsenal is either the same (101 Pitching+) or improved (3.60 Bot ERA). Perhaps he’s trading off velocity for command? He does have about a 40 point wOBA/xwOBA split since last year though.

Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.45
BSR: 4

The velocity remains up a mph on Justin Verlander’s fastball (94.6) and so is the grading on the entire arsenal (3.96 Bot ERA vs 4.83 last year, 106 Pitching+ vs 95), but the results haven’t been there. Some of it is the .306 BABIP (.255 from 2015 to 2023) and 66.9 LOB%, while the contact profile remains better than average, but the K-BB is down to 10.9%. With the SwStr up to 13.2%, I’d expect the 20.9 K% to increase, but on a per game basis, he’s sat 19.4% in two home starts against the Red and Mariners and more or less league average on the road against similar or slightly better competition. I believe the park will hide some of his deficits, but make no mistake, the old JV is not coming back. RHBs have a .354 wOBA, .319 xwOBA against him since last year.

Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -6/-3
B30: 3.57
BSR: 3

This is a pitcher friendly park with pitcher friendly weather (below 60 degrees). I don’t love the matchup, but without Seager, Verlander is cheap enough to have some value. However, I view Eovaldi as the slightly stronger arm here and an alternate if you want to pay down on FanDuel, as he’s $700 more expensive on DK. We’re not extremely interested in bats here, but you can play a RHB with power to pop one off Verlander, who’s generally good for a home run or two due to his fly ball tendencies. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+
Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days 
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs

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