An odd eight game Thursday slate includes half the action in the afternoon with just a single evening before winding down with three late west coast affairs. We’ll disregard the daily fantasy notes today.
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White Sox @ Twins
With a 7.8 K-BB% and 46 HardHit%, Shane Smith is not going to sustain the 2.82 ERA that a .194 BABIP and 3.8 HR/FB (one home run on four barrels) currently afford him. Statcast has batters from either side of the plate above a .325 wOBA, while actual results have each below .250. There’s an adjustment coming, but on the positive side, the man was throwing gas last time out (96.4 mph avg) and has a double digit SwStr% in each start with near average pitch modeling (4.32 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 3/-1
B30: 4.22
BSR: 1
Chris Paddack = changeup (22.8%, 72 PitchingBot grade, 141 Pitching+). It’s one of the best pitches in baseball by such grading. The fastball is fine as well (52.7%, 53, 105), but that’s really all he’s got. His velocity was up more than half a mph last start (94.5), in which he struck out six of 20 Braves, but with just a 5.7 SwStr%. Despite said changeup, Paddack has remained more vulnerable to LHBs (.346 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since last season). Your early oddity of the year leader: the White Sox have been the fourth best offense against changeups (1.62 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: 0/0
B30: 3.63
BSR: 1
Temperatures not likely to exceed the mid-50s on Thursday afternoon in Minnesota where one bad offense faces off against a terrible one with a pair of competent pitchers on the mound, one backed by a strong bullpen. If you can’t see where I’m going here, it’s under 8. Or least some sort of under once we get team and F5 totals too. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for more.
Mariners @ Red Sox
Bryan Woo K-BB% on the road…
Career: 13.5% (9.3 points lower than at home)
2024: 15.3% (7.3 points lower)
2025 (two starts): 13% (still five points lower)
His fastball concentrated arsenal plays better at home. The interesting thing is that his velocity has been up a full mph from his home starts in both road starts and his pitch modeling grades have been better in his road starts. At least the sinker and slider. Fenway is almost as far as you can go in the other direction in terms of run environment.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 4.06
BSR: 1
Garrett Crochet is still down 1.5 mph from last season He’s struck out 18 of 48 batters in his last two starts, but they were all White Sox. He had just a 22.7 K% in his previous three starts (Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays). I’m not saying…I’m just saying. The fastball (54 PB, 101 P+) and cutter (64, 119) are both far below last year’s marks, but still pretty damn good (3.25 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+). In a small sample, the Mariners have a 29.1 K% vs LHP, but just a 20.6 K% on the road.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.54
BSR: 0
Mid 60s without much wind predicted by google here. This could be a sneaky over, though I'm not specifically endorsing it.
Rockies @ Royals
How much can you ascertain from a pitching prospect’s first three starts, when two of them are at Coors? Well, the eight home runs and 10 barrels (51.1 HardHit%) to just 68 batters faced isn’t good anywhere. If it’s not on the ground, there’s a 40% chance it was barreled. We find some better news in a 19.1 K-BB%, but even then, his 26.5 K% comes with just a league average 10.8 SwStr%. That’s not outside the range of sustainability, but swinging strike ability stabilizes faster than called strike ability. He's going to throw his fastball (97.5 mph), increasingly with every start (61% last time out). The only difference in his one road start was fewer curveballs (8.6%) in San Diego. Generally, you’d think he’d throw fewer curves at Coors. Pitch modeling is fine (3.91 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+), but the young man clearly has talent. Let’s just hope he can somehow find his way out of Colorado with some arm strength left.
Opp wRC+: 64
DEF: 0/4
B30: 4.82
BSR: -1
Cole Ragans got smoked by the Tigers for five runs over four innings last time out, but he still struck out at least eight for the fourth consecutive start. When a team sees a pitcher that much, it’s going to happen. Likely because of such, Ragans tried to mix up his pitch usage (twice as many sliders as any other start) and it didn’t work. Unless you think he’ll keep up the .355 BABIP and sub-70% strand rate with the 30.7 K-BB%, he’ll be fine. Yes, I’m saying a 3.58 ERA is ridiculously high.
Opp wRC+: 55
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 4.26
BSR: -1
Weather should be fine here, but they’re holding back Wednesday night’s game before the rain even starts, so who knows if these are even the guys going on Thursday? Once we have more information about how Wednesday’s game plays out, there may be some interest in the total again.
Brewers @ Giants
Tobias Myers makes his season debut. He posted a 3.99 SIERA/3.97 xFIP/3.91 FIP combo last season, so let’s call It around four with a 4.47 Bot ERA and 4.22 xERA. He’s been down about a mph in three AAA rehab starts, striking out just eight of 55 batters with an 8.3 SwStr%. That’s pretty far from the 17.3 K-BB% he posted as a rookie. He did finish up striking out five of 18 White Sox on Friday, but if they’re actually worse than the major league offense, that doesn’t mean much.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/3
B30: 3.98
BSR: 4
The only time Landon Roupp hasn’t struck out at least eight batters this year is in his lone home start against the Reds (four). Now, nine of his 10 runs have been allowed on the road, but he’s only allowed three barrels with a 30.4 HardHit% overall. He’s posted at least a 20 K-BB% and 15.7 SwStr% in each road start (Phillies, Astros, Angels). Roupp keeps it pretty simple. He throws a sinker 40.4% of the time (56 BP, 119 P+) and his curveball 40.4% of the time (61, 125). The latter has a ridiculous 26.7 SwStr%. That means for every 1000 times he’d throw it, batters would swing and miss 267 times. Roupp was throwing his changeup nearly 20% of the time in his first two starts, but cut that down below eight percent and just decided to throw more curveballs in his last two starts (50.3%). While he has a 26.2 K-BB% against RHBs that’s 10.6 points above LHBs, RHBs have a 90 point higher wOBA so far because all three home runs have been surrendered to them.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -6/-3
B30: 3.61
BSR: 3
Roupp is an exciting young pitcher, while Myers is a wild card. He was perfectly average last year and only allowed three runs over three rehab starts, but the underlying numbers are a bit concerning.
Orioles @ Nationals
Cade Povich has been clubbed for seven barrels (11.1%) with a 50.8 HardHit%, while striking out just 20.2% of the batters he’s faced with a 9.0% walk rate. His last start against Cincinnati was the first time he eclipsed an 8.5 SwStr%, yet it didn’t really help because he walked five batters. His 91.9 mph velocity over his last three starts is half a mph down from last season and RHBs have destroyed him with a .470 wOBA and four home runs. Pitching+ is a bit harder on him than Pitching Bot (96 P+, 4.02 Bot ERA), though both actually see his arsenal as slightly improved from last year, but right now he’s getting clobbered.
Opp wRC+: 77
DEF: -6/-2
B30: 4.05
BSR: 0
MacKenzie Gore struck out 13 Phillies on Opening Day and another 13 Rockies at Coors last time out. That’s still a bit of an accomplishment, though I don’t expect him to sustain a 31.1 K-BB%. With just a 30.2 GB%, he’s allowed eight barrels (12.1%) with a 43.1 HardHit%, but even that’s not so bad when you’re striking out 37.8% of the batters you face. On Opening Day, Gore showcased a new slider 24.7% of the time against the Phillies. He’s thrown it just 8.7% of the time since, reverting to fastballs (64 PB, 118 P+) and curveballs (52, 103), which don’t necessarily grade better than last year themselves, but the arsenal on a whole gets to a much improved 3.19 Bot ERA and 108 Pitching+. Let’s hope Gore can keep it going the entire year this time.
Opp wRC+: 43
DEF: -2/-3
B30: 4.70
BSR: 0
No, I don’t buy that 43 wRC+ against LHP for Baltimore, but it’s 223 PAs. We’re starting to build a sample. They may be below average against LHP. Gore’s xERA is half of Povich’s. I believe -118 is a bit of a gift (F5). I’d rather not deal with the Washington bullpen.
Pirates @ Angels
Carmen Mlodzinski has allowed at least four runs without completing five innings in three of his four starts and failed to strike out a single one of the 21 Guardians he faced last time out, despite his highest swinging strike rate of the season (9.4%). He also allowed his first two barrels of the season in that start, as half his contact has been on the ground. And, with a 7.3 K-BB%, there you have the strength of his game. Ground balls. He did throw a sinker 17% of the time in his first two starts, but chopped that down more than in half in favor of more changeups over his last two starts. Maybe it’s matchup dependent. Regardless, the slider (39.7%, 68 PB, 137 P+) is the only pitch that doesn’t grade terribly and basically carries the 3.96 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+ profile all by itself. Fortunately, he’s facing a bottom third of the league team against sliders this season (LAA -0.86 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 3/2
B30: 3.92
BSR: 0
Tyler Anderson rode a .258 BABIP (and seven unearned runs) to a 3.81 ERA last season. So far this season, he’s riding a .196 BABIP and 96% strand rate to a 2.08 ERA. While his K-BB is up 1.2 points, he’s walking 13.6% of the batters he faces with a 1.7 point reduction in his SwStr%. His ground ball rate is down to 24.5%, which is how he’s allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE with a 31.5 HardHit%. The changeup grade is reduced (57 PB, 92 P+), as has the score on the entire arsenal (4.45 Bot ERA, 88 Pitching+). I don’t like it, but I also don’t believe the Pirates will try to take advantage of the wOBA and xwOBA above .350 that LHBs batters have against Anderson since last season.
Opp wRC+: 62
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 4.56
BSR: 2
Having read all that, how surprised are you that I’m recommending an under here? For one, the Angels can’t hit the slider. For two, the Pirates can’t hit anything (68 Road wRC+, 27.7 K% v LHP).
Rays @ Diamondbacks
Drew Rasmussen is here for a good time, not a long time. He’s posted a 22.4 K-BB% with only three barrels (6.1%), but hasn’t reached 85 pitches in a start yet and just surpassed 20 batters faced for the fist time last time out. If you’re thinking the stuff may decline as they start to push him deeper into games, he sat 96.9 mph in his most recent start, 1.4 mph harder than any other start this year. His 2.56 Bot ERA and 111 Pitching+ are only slightly behind last year when he was a reliever. LHBs now have a .173 wOBA and .207 xwOBA against Rasmussen since last season.
Opp wRC+: 126
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 3.56
BSR: 3
I’ve got bad news for Arizona fans. Corbin Burnes has a 4.64 ERA and it appears well earned. Where has the cutter gone? He’s struck out exactly three in three straight starts and is sitting on an 8.7 K-BB% with a 50% hard hit rate for the season. His cutter velocity is down 1.3 mph and the SwStr% on the pitch has declined every single year of his career to just 7.5% in 2025. As the SwStr has declined, the wRC+ has increased against the cutter every year to 192 this season. It’s down to a very ordinary 50 PB and 103 Pitching+. Thankfully, the curveball has upticked (57 PB, 126 P+), perhaps saving his ass if he throws it more than 18% of the time and reduces the cutter below 50% going forward.
Opp wRC+: 125
DEF: 2/8
B30: 3.02
BSR: -1
I thought I would be on the Rays here as moderate dogs. I even have it around even F5, but that’s exactly where the books have it too.
Rangers @ Athletics
Before his last start, I joked that Jacob deGrom should go back to throwing 100 mph only against LHBs, as his wOBA and xwOBA are both within two points of .375 against them since last year (includes last start). He responded by three hitting the Dodgers for seven innings with seven strikeouts, the only blemish a leadoff home run by who else? Tommy Edman…not Shohei Ohtani, who was on unexpected paternity leave. That takes some of the sting out of the outing, but it’s still a remarkable performance, in which deGrom sat 97.1 mph, 0.4 mph harder than any other start. The 23 K% isn’t very impressive and while the 13.6 SwStr% is his lowest mark since 2017, it projects a higher strikeout rate going forward. The fastball (65 PB, 126 P+) and slider (64, 141) are still elite pitches (2.26 Bot ERA, 125 Pitching+). That’s Cy Young worth stuff, but he may have to dust off that changeup (45, 80) a bit more against LHBs. They’re still a problem if he’s not throwing 99 and dotting his spots.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.44
BSR: 1
J.T. Ginn came out firing 94.5 mph sinkers against the Mets, up 1.6 mph from last season. Revenge game? Well, he sat just 93.1 mph in Milwaukee last time out. He still struck out seven of 20, but only recorded 14 outs on 96 pitches. If he’s going to sustain a 65.4 GB% and 30.2 K-BB%, then I’m not even worried about the 53.8 HardHit%. I’m unconvinced. PitchingBot (5.11 Bot ERA) and Pithcing+ (105) are in stark disagreement on his arsenal. LHBs have a .371 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against him since last year, but he won’t have to face Corey Seager.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: -12/-6
B30: 3.94
BSR: 3
I have a lean towards the A’s here. They have been the superior offense and while that may not last the entire season, it may be true without Seager. The bullpen is tricky with the A’s because if they have the lead, Miller can dominate for an inning or even two, so I’m not worried about that. I just wonder how/if/when deGrom will be able to fix his issues against LHBs and the A's now have four dangerous ones. I may have just convinced myself.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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