An odd Wednesday schedule includes five very early afternoon games, then three more starting between 6:45 PM ET and 7 PM, three more at 7:40 PM and the remainder after 9:30 PM. The main daily fantasy slate is cutting between that second slate of games and starting at 7pm (at least DraftKings), which makes less sense than it normally does, but that will be our focus for daily fantasy notes today.
Stats are 2025 with a Legend below.
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Cardinals @ Braves
Sitting down 1.5 mph from last year on the season and over two mph in his last start, Miles Mikolas hasn’t authored a quality start yet with just a 4.9 K-BB% and 42.9 HardHit%. When combining with last year, his estimators average around four and a half, which is still a run better than this year’s ERA (5.56). That’s not to say he hasn’t declined with a career low 6.7 SwStr%, but Mikolas seems to be aware of this, throwing his fastball less frequently than ever (23%). Pitch model grading has declined as well, but still sits around average (4.12 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 14/10
B30: 4.15
BSR: 1
Bryce Elder’s pitch metrics have immensely improved (5.23 Bot ERA to 3.69, 92 Pitching+ to 107). The results have been a 7.20 ERA and matching 7.04 FIP. It’s been some poor luck that all five of his barrels have gone out, but that’s still 9.6% of contact with a mere 7.5 BB% and K-BB%, which are the worst of his career. LHBs exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 3/4
B30: 4.09
BSR: 2
Including last season’s peripherals, these pitchers rate similarly. Remarkably, looking at just this year’s numbers the offenses and bullpens grade out similarly as well. As does base running. Whether you believe all that will continue or not, St Louis certainly has the superior defense and probably shouldn’t be this large a dog in this spot. It’s a narrow edge that I probably wouldn’t play below +140.
Padres @ Tigers
RHBs have a .444 wOBA and .370 xwOBA against Kyle Hart this year.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -5/-3
B30: 3.36
BSR: 1
Reese Olson is coming off his best start, four hitting the Royals over five shutout innings. It was the third time in four starts he’s struck out five. He led with his change (35.6%) for the first time this year to strong pitch grades in the outing (58 PitchingBot, 100 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.75
BSR: 1
Phillies @ Mets
Twenty-three of Zack Wheeler’s 41 strikeouts have come in a pair of home starts against the Rockies and Marlins. He threw a season high 15.6% splitters against the Marlins last time out, while he went at the Nationals (the other predominantly left-handed lineup he faced) with more cutters (15.5%). LHBs are down to a .223 wOBA against Wheeler this year, but RHBs are at .367. With a 32.7 K-BB% against RHBs, don’t expect that to last.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 1/-1
B30: 4.16
BSR: 1
David Peterson allowed a season high three runs last time out. I said he wouldn’t sustain the low 7.8 HR/FB from last year when just eight of his 26 barrels left the park. Two of three have gone out already, but the strikeout rate is up to 27.7% with a career high 56.1 GB% as well. Even with a 45.8 HardHit%, he’s only allowed those few barrels. The unfortunate news is that he’s doing this with a career low 8.7 SwStr% (11.6% career).
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -3/-2
B30: 2.99
BSR: 0
Reds @ Marlins
Brady Singer’s 47.1 GB% was a career low last year. You figure the ground balls is one of the reasons the Reds want him in their park. He’s introduced a cutter this year (13.7%). It stinks (31 PB, 47 P+). His ground ball rate is a new low 33.3%.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 5/3
B30: 4.70
BSR: 0
Sandy Alcantara is generating ground balls (59.6%) with competent, but career worst pitch modeling (3.90 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+). He’s walked six of his last 37 batters with two strikeouts. LHBs have a .361 wOBA and .428 xwOBA against him this year.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 3/1
B30: 4.95
BSR: 0
The Reds have a 119 wRC+ on the road, 104 vs RHP and 162 over the last week. That all stems from one game on Sunday.
Yankees @ Guardians
Carlos Rodon’s pitch modeling grades are all down, but still average (4.18 BotERA, 101 Pitching+). He has struck out 25 of his last 71 batters, but with just a 9.8 SwStr%, not reaching 11% in any single one of those starts. His pitch modeling grades have slightly declined over this span.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.56
BSR: -1
Luis L Ortiz struck out five of his first 51 batters, but now 18 of his last 42. He’s found some success throwing the high heat.
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: -5/3
B30: 3.34
BSR: 1
Should this line increase too much….as Yankee lines sometimes do….follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Orioles @ Nationals
Tomoyuki Sugano throws six pitches between 14% and 23% of the time, grading from 42 (splitter) to 55 (curveball) on the PitchingBot scale, though the 92.1 mph fastball gets a 114 Pitching+. Batters from each side have at least a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him so far.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -6/-4
B30: 4.16
BSR: -1
Trevor Williams has allowed five barrels over his last two starts (at Pittsburgh and at Miami). His fastball has not reached an 89 mph average in any of his four starts, yet PitchingBot grades it above 60 and Pitching+ 119 or better in every single start. Williams has held RHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 131
DEF: -2/-2
B30: 4.70
BSR: 0
Mariners @ Red Sox
Emerson Hancock has allowed three barrels to 27 batters faced. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Remember how many games he pitches in the lowest run environment in baseball too. He has a career 7.6 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -7/-5
B30: 4.02
BSR: 1
Sean Newcomb hasn’t completed five innings in any of his four starts and that’s despite throwing 94 pitches twice. The fact that none of his four barrels have left the park is countered by a .462 BABIP on a 46.2 HardHit%. He’s walked at least 9.1% of the batters he’s faced in each start and pitch modeling hates him (4.90 Bot ERA, 85 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.46
BSR: 0
It’s supposed to be decent weather at Fenway on Wednesday and for obvious reasons, I’m on the total here, but just F5 (o5.5 -120).
Dodgers @ Cubs
And we start our daily fantasy slate with the dreaded bullpen game. Assuming mostly RHPs here.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 0/2
B30: 3.08
BSR: 3
Matthew Boyd is down 8.3 points to an 11.6 K-BB%, both in small samples last year and this, but has held the hard hit rate to just 28.1% thus far. Probably not sustainable. The fact that he’s throwing a full mph harder than last year means he’s throwing the fastball more (43.5% most since 2020) and up to 49.5% last time out. PitchingBot thinks that’s fine (51), but Pitching+ does not (88). Either way, the slider (43, 89) has been the real issue, assuming there even is much of an issue. His estimators average a bit below four, while holding RHBs below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA since returning from injury last year.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 1/1
B30: 4.50
BSR: 1
Bullpen games are the real bane of daily fantasy. You really can’t do much with them. The good news is that the weather isn’t supposed to impact this game much. At least from a temperature and wind standpoint. It’ll be a bit on the cool side, but above 60 most likely. We really don’t like playing pitchers against the Dodgers either and Boyd isn’t an exception to that rule. I don’t care what the early numbers are against LHP. Interesting to note the Dodgers only have an 88 wRC+ on the road so far too though.
Rockies @ Royals
While Michael Lorenzon found a way to fly well more than a run below his estimators last year (.236 BABIP, 82.4 LOB%), his ERA is more than a run higher (4.57) with an adjusted .314 wOBA and 67.4 LOB% that may have gone too far the other way. His K-BB is actually up from 6.9% to 10.4%. RHBs have a .346 wOBA and .357 xwOBA against Lorenzon, but the Rockies are suddenly predominantly left-handed with all their injuries. They’re one of the few teams I still expect not to make the adjustment against the reverse platoon. Lorenzon’s pitch modeling has improved a full run (5.10 Bot ERA to 4.07) and nine points (89 Pitching+ to 98).
Opp wRC+: 67
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 4.02
BSR: -1
I’m usually advocating to attack Lorenzon, but here and maybe against the White Sox are the two teams I’m fine using him against for around $8K. Without weather concerns, Kansas City is the sneaky positive run environment, but as it suppresses power, we want to build lineups in terms of stacks. You certainly want your LH Royals because Marquez may make them look competent. It’ll also lower the price of your lineup for Witt or whatever other stars you want to include.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Despite a four point reduction in K-BB (13.2%) and decline in contact profile (14.8% Barrels/BBE, 54.1 HardHit%), Bowden Francis has dropped his ERA to 3.13 due to an unsustainable .196 BABIP and 84.2 LOB%. LHBs have a .354 wOBA with all five home runs against him, which is great news against this Houston bunch, as RHBs have a .214 wOBA and 16.7 K-BB% against him. Francis is coming off his best start of the season, throwing his 92.6 mph fastball (best velocity of the season) 60% of the time against the Mariners, striking out five of 22 batters with one walk and run. However, he ran a 6.5 SwStr% and allowed three barrels with a 60 HardHit%. The splitter (24.6%, 42 PB, 60 P+) appears to be the major problem in his arsenal, as the fastball and curveball grades are also down, but still around average.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 4/-1
B30: 3.21
BSR: 0
My initial thoughts on Ryan Gusto, prior to his second major league start…
“Twenty-six year old Ryan Gusto has not been mentioned in a Houston prospect report for years and he started with them in 2019. In 148.1 AAA innings last year, he posted a 14.1 K-BB%. There’s a gap in his record from 2019 to 2022, but he hasn’t exceeded a 16.2 K-BB% anywhere post-gap. He struck out six of 17 Angels in his first start, throwing 55.7% fastballs (he aims high with 19.1 iVB) and no other pitch more than 11.5%, but pitch modeling has loved what they’ve seen out of him so far (2.43 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+) and you gotta love a guy with…Gusto?”
Throwing 60% fastballs against the Padres last time out, he only struck out two of 22, but pitch modeling continued it’s affair with the pitch (64 PB, 115 P+), which continued it’s 19” iVB and generated all seven of his whiffs in the start. The Blue Jays won’t offer enough strikeouts for Gusto, but they do have trouble with fastballs (-0.25 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: 8/1
B30: 3.13
BSR: 0
Compounding on what was just mentioned above, the Blue Jays have one batter in their projected lineup even reaching a 19 K% against RHP since last season. It’s a difficult roster even at a nice price. Bowden is a little more expensive and the right-handed lean of the Houston lineup makes me want to lean into him a bit more, but that contact profile is too prominent for me. Just bet Alvarez to homer.
White Sox @ Twins
This is going to be Bryse Wilson to…what? Open? He threw 64 pitches over three innings back on April 4th, but no more than 25 pitches in any other outing this season. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. Looking at their bullpen usage, Vasil ate up most of yesterday with more than 50 pitchers with every other reliever available.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 3/0
B30: 4.22
BSR: 1
David Festa has struck out 10 of 38 Mets and Tigers with just two walks so far and a 12.1 SwStr%. While the 29.2 GB% is a bit scary, he’s only allowed two barrels with an average contact profile. The slider looks to be improved (59 PB, 115), joining the changeup as an already strong offering (59, 113). Perhaps Mr. Festa is ready to arrive. The largest concern is that he threw just 64 pitches in his first start and 76 last time out. Will they push him up to 85-90 this time out?
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: 0/0
B30: 3.63
BSR: 1
Mid-60s with a light wind out to right center seems about neutral for Target Field. I already mentioned above how much I hate bullpen games, but you can attack the White Sox a bit more aggressively than the Dodgers. The Twins are the top offense on the board (5.38 implied run line). Festa should be good on a per pitch basis, but he’s not cheap. Can he get through six innings?
Pirates @ Angels
Let’s get this out of the way right away. Andrew Heaney is posting a career bests in BABIP (.239), strand rate (80.5%) and HR/FB (4.5%). Just one of his four barrels have left the yard. However, he’s also posting a solid 16.3 K-BB% with a career best contact profile (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 35.3 HardHit%). He’s only allowed a single barrel in each start. You could say that he’s only faced one decent, but struggling offense too though (Mets). He’s throwing a 90 mph fastball (down 1.5 mph) a career low 45% of the time, which is still a lot and the Pirates aren’t generally a team I think about fixing pitchers. I consider them a team that trades high upside pitching, which then gets optimized. The pitch model grading on everything he throws has declined (4.02 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+). I don’t know how to treat him. Maybe just accept he’s an average arm? He’ll be facing an almost entirely right-handed lineup and has a bit of a reverse split since last year (RHBs .298 wOBA, .319 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: 3/2
B30: 3.92
BSR: 0
Jack Koch has struck out one of 23 batters in each of his last two starts in Texas (Rangers & Astros) and he’s not even generating a ton of ground balls yet (46.5% and above 50% only once in four tries). He’s allowed multiple barrels with at least a 47 HardHit% in three of four starts as well. LHBs have a .337 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA against him in his career.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 4.56
BSR: 2
Close to 60 with a light breeze out to left-center pushes this park slightly more towards pitchers than ordinary, I would imagine? Still around neutral and power friendly. It’s the Pirates, but I don’t know if there’s a team in the league you can roster JK against. There’s just no upside. His career high in strikeouts is five, done just once. In fact, Pittsburgh bats are fine here, though Reynolds and Cruz are the only pair of projected starters who reach a 110 wRC+ vs RHP since last year. Heaney is fine on DraftKings here. One of the better values for $8.1K on this slate. May be adequately priced on FD ($9.7K). The Angels do have some lefty mashers though. Not all who you would expect them to be (Neto 183 wRC+, .220 ISO).
Rays @ Diamondbacks
Taj Bradley is coming off his worst start of the season against the Yankees, the first time he failed to strike out seven, but second time he’s allowed at least four runs. With more walks than strikeouts in the start, his K-BB is cut to 14.7%, four points below his career rate. The good news for him so far is in the contact profile (5.0% Barrels/BBE, 38.3 HardHit% are both career bests). Pitch modeling really hits Bradley hard, rating the spiltter his only above average pitch (51 PB, 105 P+), rounding out a 5.16 Bot ERA and 83 Pitching+ profile. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .297 and .319 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. As long as he fails to locate consistently, he’s going to be a volatile pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 127
DEF: 0/-4
B30: 3.48
BSR: 3
Twenty-one of Eduardo Rodriguez’s 29 strikeouts have come in just two of his four starts in Miami and Washington, though he hasn’t been terrible in home starts against the Cubs and Brewers. The 24 K-BB% will not sustain with a SwStr% only one-third his strikeout rate, but this is a sign of a pitcher who is commanding well with just three barrels and a 32.8 HardHit%. That’s further illustrated in his 109 Location+. His overall 3.85 Bot ERA and 102 Pitching+ are his best marks since leaving Boston after the 2021 season.
Opp wRC+: 86
DEF: 2/5
B30: 2.97
BSR: -1
Less about the pitchers because while I see ERod as the current better pitcher, Bradley surely has the better stuff and has the capability to throw a gem at any time. This is about every other aspect of the game, where the Diamondbacks have an edge. I show the larger edge F5 (-120), though the Diamondbacks have one of the elite bullpens too.
From a daily fantasy perspective, while Bradley has a potent arm, we generally don’t want to attack the Diamondbacks with pricey, volatile pitchers. I wouldn’t even hate a GPP stack or two against him in multis. There should be some strikeouts there for ERod, but his recent strikeout success may have priced a guy that gets by more on command at this point a bit too high ($9K+).
Brewers @ Giants
Still somewhat erratic, Freddy Peralta hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start this year with a 21.1 K-BB% with the caveat that he hasn’t reached that mark in any of his last three starts (13.2%). Caveat number two being the Diamondbacks were the only offense he really struggled in that department against (8.1%). He’s managing contact well with just two barrels and a 30 HardHit% in four starts post-Yankee Stadium. His velocity remains up and it’s a surprise that he merits such average pitch modeling (4.01 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+), though the fastball (59.8%) grades are up (60 PB, 115 P+).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/3
B30: 3.98
BSR: 4
As mentioned last time Logan Webb pitched. It’s not that his new cutter is good (11.5%, 40 PB, 77 P+), it just has to give hitters a different look. His overall pitch modeling is in line with last season (3.31 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+). Striking out 12 Angels last time out, Webb is up to a 26.7 K-BB%. He’s throwing more sliders with a two point increase in swinging strikes on the pitch (11.9%), but the changeup has gone from an 11.5 SwStr% to a 25% one. Again, that could be the influence of the cutter. Webb is still generating ground balls (55.7%) with an improving contact profile (42.3 HardHit% is his best in three years). LHBs have a .248 wOBA and 24 K-BB% against him this year after .301 and 14.1% last year.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -6/-3
B30: 3.61
BSR: 3
As mentioned in a short preview last night, there are the two best pitchers on the board in the most negative run environment. It’s as close as you can get, maybe a slight preference for a cheaper Peralta on FanDuel, where he’s $600 less than Webb. If you’re not paying up for these two or need a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings, I think Lorenzon may be your best value (I probably won’t ever say that again), only because he’s cheaper than Heaney and Festa, who I rate similarly overall. You’re not interested in bats in this park with these two on the mound.
Rangers @ Athletics
Kumar Rocker struck out eight of 27 Angels over seven innings with a season high 79 pitches (that’s incredibly efficient). That pitch count has only previously allowed him a season high of 20 batters and five innings each done once. With a 50% hard hit rate, .344 BABIP and 55.6 LOB%, Rocker still has an ERA twice his estimators mostly in the upper threes, but with a 5.09 xERA. Rocker threw his slider 57.7% of the time last time out, splitting the rest evenly between fastballs and sinkers. It was the first time this season his slider reached an average PB score, though it grades average for the year by Pitching+. Both had the fastball and sinker at season high grades with overall marks remaining below average (4.58 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+). The one thing to remember is that the Angels are predominantly right-handed. The A's are too, but do have a few dangerous LHBs (.357 wOBA, .354 xwOBA vs Rocker career).
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 3.44
BSR: 1
You’re getting a fastball (49 PB, 87 P+) or you’re getting a sweeper (62, 117) with LHBs seeing the occasional changeup (45, 82) from J.P. Sears and you can see who the star of this show is. It only has an 11.6 SwStr%, but that’s still up nearly two full points from last year. Against the Rockies and White Sox, Sears has struck out two each. He’s struck out seven Mariners and Mets each. Go figure. He’s only pitched one game at home and only allowed five barrels (7.0%), despite the 36.6 GB%. He allowed 10% Barrels/BBE last year. RHBs have a .328 wOBA and .337 xwOBA against Sears since last year.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -12/-7
B30: 3.94
BSR: 1
This park is playing very hitter friendly so far, despite not even reaching the summer months yet, but it’s been surprisingly only slightly power positive. Both offenses are at 4.75 implied runs. I’m okay if you want to take a cheap shot on Rocker here, but I’d certainly be countering that with some Oakland bats in other lineups too. I don’t think Sears is the pitcher we’re looking for here. I do like Texas bats a lot, especially Wyatt Langford (155 wRC+, .290 ISO v LHP career).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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