Only five afternoon games on Wednesday with a 10 game daily fantasy main slate starting a half hour earlier. We have around five or six pitchers unconfirmed and/or making their first start of the season at the time of this writing. Today’s article will only be covering games of interest or potential interest with daily fantasy notes for the late games.
Stats are 2025 with a Legend below.
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Braves @ Blue Jays
This is Spencer Strider’s return. He’s struck out 27 of 51 AAA batters, including 13 of 21 last time out. Projections average slightly above three, which may be conservative. He shouldn’t have significant workload limitations, but I wouldn’t expect more than 85 pitches or six innings.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 2/4
B30: 4.04
BSR: -1
Chris Bassitt has allowed two runs over 18.1 innings, striking out 21 of 73 batters with a 13 SwStr%. His velocity has been down two mph in his last two starts, but it’s also been cold in New York and Boston. All of his pitch grades are up at least slightly, returning a 3.48 Bot ERA (4.27 last year) and 101 Pitching+ (94 last year). While LHBs still have a .327 wOBA against him in three starts, his 22.5 K-BB% is nearly three times his 8.3% mark last year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 2/-2
B30: 3.38
BSR: 0
This game is in a protected environment, so we should see the real Strider and Bassitt here. If the latter posts another strong start with an increase in velocity, I may have to start buying in and already have a small lean towards the Jays as home dogs, whose bullpen has been better so far. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Mets @ Twins
No pitcher has been confirmed, but it’s rumored that this could be either Jose Urena, who averaged estimators above four and a half as a swing/long man for Texas last year or Justin Hagenman, a 28 year-old who has not thrown a major league inning yet. He does project slightly better than Urena, but for just 11 innings of bullpen work.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 2/1
B30: 2.93
BSR: 2
David Festa pitched well against the Tigers, but was pulled in the fifth at 64 pitches. He was up half a mph from last year, but his pitch grades were slightly down, though still in league average range.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -2/-1
B30: 3.51
BSR: 1
Not supposed to be as cold in Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon.
No pitcher has been confirmed, but it’s rumored that this could be either Jose Urena, who averaged estimators above four and a half as a swing/long man for Texas last year or Justin Hagenman, a 28 year-old who has not thrown a major league inning yet. He does project slightly better than Urena, but for just 11 innings of bullpen work.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 2/1
B30: 2.93
BSR: 2
Tigers @ Brewers
This will be Keider Montero’s first outing of the year. Estimators averaged around four and a half last year. He struck out six of 17 batters in 5.2 perfect innings in his last AAA start, though his velocity has been down a mph through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 3.84
BSR: 1
Posted here before Jose Quintana’s Brewer debut in Arizona against a tough lineup...
He did not have a single estimator within two thirds of a run of his 3.75 ERA last season and is unlikely to repeat a BABIP 40 points below his career average or a strand rate nearly five points above. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .308 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him. His K-BB% has declined every year since 2020, but he’s kept the barrels to a minimum (5.9% with a 35.9 HardHit% since 2022).
Welp, he BABIP’d .200 and stranded all his runners, generating three whiffs on 80 pitches. With a 60 HardHit%, he didn’t allow a single run either.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 1/1
B30: 4.13
BSR: 1
Yeah, no thanks.
Astros @ Cardinals
Ronel Blanco’s K-BB is up 2.5 points to 17%, but he’s walking 13.2% of batters. Thus, he hasn’t gone past five innings. The difference has been a 159 point rise in BABIP and 26.6 point drop in LOB%. His pitch modeling was below average last year and even worse this year (4.83 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: 6/4
B30: 2.99
BSR: 0
Steven Matz has thrown as many as 53 pitches in a relief outing this year and could potentially go through a lineup nearly twice. He’s mostly chucking sinkers (66.7%), which are a league average pitch, but also above average changeups (59 PB, 110 P+). Still, RHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 53
DEF: 6/0
B30: 3.85
BSR: 1
I don’t think Blanco is a much better pitcher than Matz, but also don’t think the offensive gap between the two teams is as large as these numbers suggest. I’d have to think about the Cards if they became much of a home dog.
Cubs @ Padres
After posting a single digit SwStr% against these Padres and the Diamondbacks, Matt Boyd generated 16 whiffs against the Dodgers. His 4.52 Bot ERA and 86 Pitching+ don’t say much, but perhaps it has to do with the tough schedule?
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 3/5
B30: 4.54
BSR: -1
Nick Pivetta has decreased sweeper usage (29.1% to 18.7%), not because it’s a bad pitch (58 PB, 120 P+), but because his release angle telegraphed it. RHBs have gone from a .345 wOBA to a .327 wOBA against him. Doesn’t look like much and it’s a small sample, but these Cubs are the only team to score against him. Pivetta’s thrown 14 shutout innings at the Braves and Rockies at home.
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: -4/-4
B30: 3.32
BSR: 3
I don’t know how these Padres keep putting so many runs on the board, but the Chicago bullpen looked putrid in blowing Monday night’s game.
Guardians @ Orioles
Gavin Williams throws his fastball more than half the time and then his slider about two-thirds of the rest of the time. The slider is the shits by pitch modeling (38 PB, 86 P+), but is getting positive results (40 Whiff%, .187 wOBA). That said, RHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Williams since last year with RHBs below .290.
Opp wRC+: 112
DEF: -6/-2
B30: 3.25
BSR: 0
Dean Kremer has improved pitch modeling this season (3.82 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+), but still has more than half as many barrels (six) as strikeouts (11). LHBs have a .334 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against him since last year, making this a bad matchup for him.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.81
BSR: 0
I’m almost always happy to attack Kremer with LHBs. Everyone’s still waiting for Gavin Williams to find that breakout pitch to pair with his fastball. This is not a great spot for him either, but I wonder if the Orioles might attack him with more RHBs.
Nationals @ Pirates
Mitchell Parker has struck out just 10 of 77 batters with eight walks, but half his contact on the ground with a single barrel. He’s somehow shut down the Phillies and Diamondbacks, but struggled with the Marlins. Both pitch modeling systems see the entire arsenal a bit below average. Parker has just an 11 point wOBA split since last year, but 73 point xwOBA one.
Opp wRC+: 58
DEF: -1/-1
B30: 4.99
BSR: 0
Bailey Falter’s 10.6 K-BB% would be an improvement on last season (8.8%), but he certainly doesn’t want to sustain the 52.2 HardHit%. Both systems like the fastball (54 PB, 105 P+), but hate everything else. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 4.13
BSR: -1
Two probably below average lefties in a park that suppresses right-handed power where we’re expecting cold, rain and wind. How the hell does Parker cost $9.6K on FanDuel. I’m almost hoping this one is a washout because I don’t know what to do with it from a daily fantasy perspective.
Mariners @ Reds
Bryce Miller’s 24.0 K-BB% at home last year turned into 11.2% on the road. In his first road start this season, in San Francisco, a park most like T-Mobile, he walked three Giants with four strikeouts. However, he’s also struck out just nine of 45 with five walks at home too. His velocity is down a mph and dropping with each start. Pitch modeling still likes the fastball, but everything else grades extremely poorly for an overall 5.07 Bot ERA and 88 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: -6/-5
B30: 3.74
BSR: 1
Eight of Nick Martinez’s 15 strikeouts came last time out in San Francisco and the 15.9 K-BB% overall is fine with just a 32 HardHit%. I immediately look towards a 57% strand rate with three of his four barrels leaving the yard. However, he has just a 9.0 SwStr%. The good news is that the pitch modeling looks strong (3.64 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 3/2
B30: 4.19
BSR: 2
We’re certainly not using Bryce Miller on the road, even with cooler weather and a poor offense in this park. I don’t hate Cincinnati bats here either. Martinez may be too cheap, but realize Seattle has a 141/116 Rd/v RHP wRC+ split with a 14.2 K% on the road and just 20.4% against RHP.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Brandon Pfaadt’s newfound pitches to counter left-handed batters will be tested here, if not in quality, at least in quantity. His increased usage of curves and changeups against has resulted in…well, a .356 wOBA and four home runs. PitchingBot does like the pitches (53, 56), while Pitching+ is much more in linen with the results (86, 87). Batters have a 170 wRC+ with two of those home runs against the curveball. The odd thing is Pfaadt’s K-BB% is five points lower against RHBs so far. The 11.4 SwStr% is more impressive than the 17.4 K% and the walk rate is down to 4.3%, so there are good signs.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 2/2
B30: 2.55
BSR: -1
Max Meyer is up to 47.9% sliders with just 24% fastballs and why not? It’s working (17.2 SwStr%, 56 PB, 113 P+). His velocity has dropped with each start, back to the 94.1 mph he averaged last year last time out. What’s he using to get LHBs out? Well, they have a 17.1 K-BB% and .183 wOBA in 41 plate appearances against him this year. With an 18.9 K-BB% overall, I’m interested.
Opp wRC+: 135
DEF: 1/-1
B30: 5.16
BSR: 1
I think Pfaadt may be a bit expensive against a predominantly left-handed lineup for all the problems he’s having, though there are strikeouts there for him. The same can’t be said for Meyer, who is pitching better, but is just as expensive now. What I might like most, if the line moves much higher, is Miami F5. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to see if it does.
Giants @ Phillies
Robbie Ray has struck out just nine of his last 42 batters faced and walked the same number. The slider has been a problem (30 PB, 68 P+), though even the fastball has suffered in these two outings (43, 83) despite no reduction in velocity from his Cy Young season in Seattle. In 46 innings since last season, Ray has still held RHBs below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA, but RHBs above .360. Usually not an issue, except that the Phillies will keep the lineup balanced against LHPs.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.47
BSR: -2
Aaron Nola has allowed six barrels (12.2%), of which four have left the yard with his only home start being against the Dodgers (two home runs, three barrels). Thus, the ERA and FIP above five check out. The 16.7 K-BB% is a bit low for him, but would mark the third consecutive year of decline in that department. If you accept the premise that he’s an above average innings eater rather than a Cy Young candidate, then you should be fine. There should be strikeouts in this Giants lineup for him.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 1/1
B30: 3.61
BSR: 2
Twenty mile per hour winds whipping across the field in 50 degree temperatures make this contest extremely unprojectable. Even a slight directional change in wind could cause havoc with the scoreboard. For now, I’m going to project a pitcher friendly environment and call Nola potentially the top pitcher on the board, but a much better value on FD, where he’s cheaper. That says more about the state of pitching on this slate than it does him. Robbie Ray should not be $8K or more at this point and I would rather stack against him. I say stack because of all the walks. You’ll want all those runs should someone take him deep.
Red Sox @ Rays
Sean Newcomb hasn’t recorded five innings in any of his three starts. He’s struck out 15 of 63 batters, but with just a 9.1 SwStr% and seven walks. The fastball he’s thrown 31% of the time grades poorly (36 PB, 72 P+) and is a pitch the Rays have smashed so far in their new home park (0.96 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.31
BSR: 2
Zach Littell’s 15.7 K-BB% is mostly based on the fact that he doesn’t walk anyone (4.3%). Not being able to miss bats (9.3 SwStr%) or keep the ball on the ground (39.6%) is going to hurt him in this park. It’s only a positive that he won’t put runners on base before the ball leaves the park. He’s allowed six barrels (11.3%) already on a 45.3 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .315 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 100
DEF: 0/-3
B30: 3.69
BSR: 2
Taking weather into account, this is the top offensive environment on the board and only Texas with an open roof (like it was last night) can challenge that. Perhaps Cincy on a warmer night. The Rays are third from the top of the board (4.82 implied runs) with the Red Sox more middling (4.18), but I’m all about the bats here. That said, Littell is cheap and the Red Sox offer a ton of strikeouts. I can see the temptation. You just have to hope he allows a couple of solo home runs and that's it.
Royals @ Yankees
Kris Bubic has generated a 14+ SwStr% in all three starts thus far (MIL, CLE, BAL) with just three barrels and a 52.1 GB%. He’s never averaged 92 mph in a season as a starting pitcher, but he’s done so in all three starts this season, going at least six innings in each start (3 QS). He’s shoving with 19 inches of vert on the heater, which is even a full inch above last year out of the bullpen. Every pitch he’s thrown more than 10 times (four of them) has at least a 23.3% whiff rate with the changeup at 36.4%. All of his pitches are graded average or better by both pitch modeling systems (3.54 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 154
DEF: -2/-4
B30: 4.07
BSR: 0
Clarke Schmidt posted a strong 17.8 K-BB% with just 5.9% Barrels/BBE last season. He makes his first start after facing just 13 and 14 AA batters in a pair of rehab starts, striking out 11. I don’t expect length here.
Opp wRC+: 62
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.49
BSR: 0
I already played Bubic’s K prop (Rocky Jade on Action Newtork) and despite the 17 mph winds out towards right, the 48 degree temperatures should circumnavigate that somewhat and Bubic, as a LHP, should be hurt less. I’m willing to endorse Bubic to the point of calling him my favorite pitcher tonight, under these circumstances. Unfortunately, FanDuel has already caught on, making him the most expensive pitcher on the board. He’s still $1.8K less on DraftKings. However, perhaps the price tag works in our advantage because you’d have to be nuts to roster a no name against the Yankees at home at that price, right? This is my bold call of the month, not for the weak of stomach.
Athletics @ White Sox
Osvaldo Bido has completed exactly five innings with two runs in each of his three starts (@ SEA, @ COL, SDP). Despite just 23.9% of his contact on the ground, he’s only allowed a single barrel. I don’t see how that’s sustainable. The 11.8 K-BB% is competent, but not much more. Bido has shut down LHBs since last year (.221 wOBA, .265 xwOBA). His arsenal (fastball, slider, cutter) grades out near average.
Opp wRC+: 71
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 3.84
BSR: 1
Jonathan Cannon has been shelled for nine runs over his last nine innings (@ DET, @ CLE) with all three of his barrels allowed leaving the yard over that span. His velocity in his second and third starts were down at least a mph from his first two. Pitch modeling does see grade his five pitch arsenal out to be around average though (4.02 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+). However, a 7.6 K-BB% with a generally awful defense behind him (though not yet this year) seems ominous. LHBs are 40 points of wOBA and xwOBA better than RHBs against him since last year. The A’s don’t have many, but they do have some pop.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 2/0
B30: 3.92
BSR: 0
Here’s the most important thing in this game. It’s near freezing with a near double digit wind blowing in from left. This makes both pitchers playable at middling priced and Bido one of the top values on the board.
Angels @ Rangers
No surprise that Jose Soriano went more sinker heavy in his last start in Tampa Bay (64.5%) after throwing more sliders (15.6%) in his previous start, though he also threw more curveballs than in any other start against the Rays (24.7%). He’s pretty much dumped his four-seamer, which has resulted in a 65.2 GB%, but also an increase in strikeout rate (24.3%) with a double down on sliders (11.3%) from last season and the inclusion of the curve. The state of the Texas offense since the start of last year is befuddling.
Opp wRC+: 77
DEF: 1/-4
B30: 4.80
BSR: 3
Patrick Corbin threw 25.7% cutters in his first start. It was his best pitch last year (62 PB, 104 P+) and graded even better in this start (72, 113), but he was also down nearly a mph and got hammered with seven hard hit batted balls out of 19 batters and no strikeouts. He did face a tough Cubs lineup and now an improved Angels one. The Rangers would be doing him no favors by opening the roof again. RHBs are still above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 76
DEF: 0/-2
B30: 3.22
BSR: 1
As mentioned above, it wouldn’t behoove the Rangers to open the roof again, since Jose Soriano keeps the ball on the ground so often and Patrick Corbin would be the most adversely affected. I’m still not sure Soriano misses enough bats to have value at his given price tag and I’m still holding out some optimism for the Texas offense, but I’d probably leave this side of the matchup alone (assuming roof closed). You can always stack a right-handed lineup against Corbin and that’s what the Angels are, but I’m almost intrigued by the cutters increased usage and grade. Not to the point where I’m rostering him though.
Rockies @ Dodgers
German Marquez has been shelled in two straight starts by the A’s and Padres (-2.2 K-BB%, 43.8 HardHit%) and now it gets worse. He has a 5.77 Bot ERA and 83 Pitching+ through three starts.
Opp wRC+: 130
DEF: 2/5
B30: 5.46
BSR: 1
Bobby Miller makes his season debut after the best rotation ever assembled has run out of arms early. He posted an 8.5 K-BB% with 11.5% Barrels/BBE last season while batters from either side of the plate had at least a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The good news is…well, forget that. He’s struck out the same number of batters (11) as he’s walked in 12 AAA innings. Like I said, the Dodgers have run out of arms.
Opp wRC+: 57
DEF: -1/1
B30: 3.27
BSR: -1
At 55 degrees with a 10 mph wind out to right, it’s not as bad at Dodger Stadium as it is in most outdoor spots tonight. The Dodgers are the top offense on the board (by run total). That part is obvious and we can play any home pitcher against the Rockies on the road, right? …Right??
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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