Eleven of 15 on the main daily fantasy on Tuesday evening without a single day game. Under some time constraints both here and next Tuesday, so away we go.
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Nationals @ Pirates
The results don’t look pretty with four of nine barrels (17.6%) leaving the park and a 51 HardHit%, but remember that Jake Irvin has faced the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers to start the season. Pitch modeling still believes the stuff is fine (3.59 Bot ERA, 99 Pitching+), while the curveball is still going strong (55 PB, 108 P+). He should find a softer landing against what’s been an awful Pittsburgh offense.
Opp wRC+: 63
DEF: -1/-1
B30: 5.10
BSR: -1
Mitch Keller has allowed one run over 13.1 innings to the Marlins and Cardinals, but with seven in 3.2 innings sandwiched in between against the Yankees. A 10.7 K-BB% overall through three starts is not very impressive (Irvin is two points worse against a tougher schedule). The velocity is down over half a mph from last season and PitchersList has posted scathing reviews of the fastball in the Daily Roundup, but that’s his only offering that pitch modeling has been high on (60 PB, 111 P+). Everything else grades below average.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 2/-3
B30: 4.12
BSR: -1
This was supposed to be a quick and easy one, but I found myself gravitating towards the Nationals as a dog. I’m pretty okay with just about any dog price at better than even money, but will wait a bit to see the F5 line. I can concede that Keller is probably the slightly better pitching here, but the Nationals should take that edge back and more offensively I just may want to avoid the bullpens. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Mariners @ Reds
Here’s that first road start where we can load up on LHBs (> .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) against Luis Castillo. You couldn’t ask for a better park, but you could ask for a much better offense and this one’s not even on the daily fantasy slate. Sigh. Castillo’s pitch modeling is improved (3.79 Bot ERA, 112 Pitching+), but with he velocity down another mph from last year, that could just be T-Mobile wind effects.
Opp wRC+: 76
DEF: -6/-5
B30: 3.70
BSR: 1
Nick Lodolo has increased his sinker usage (13.3% to 25.9%) and you get it. You want to keep the ball on the ground in this park and it’s a good pitch (57 PB, 116 P+). In fact, everything he’s throwing (four pitches 20%+) grades above average, but the 49.2 GB% with just a 9.9 K-BB% makes him less interesting.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 3/1
B30: 4.15
BSR: 2
This is a revenge game for Castillo too. Although, revenge for what, I don’t know. They traded him someplace where he has a better team and park around him and they paid him a bunch of money. I’m only disappointed that this isn’t an Abbott and Castillo matchup.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Merrill Kelly is off to a horrid start with a terrible schedule. He’s pitched against the Cubs, Yankees and Orioles and only looked decent in his last game. He’s allowed eight barrels in 70 batters with poor pitch modeling and a -2.9 K-BB%. This is as good a get right spot for him as any.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 2/2
B30: 2.51
BSR: 0
Connor Gillispie has an 11.7 K-BB%, but has allowed six barrels to 60 batters. In his short career, RHBs have a .338 wOBA and .367 xwOBA against him and the fastball is a problem. His grades poorly (37 PB, 83 P+) and the Diamondbacks have been a top of the league offense against RHP the last few years (1.66 wFA/C this year).
Opp wRC+: 137
DEF: 1/1
B30: 5.11
BSR: 1
I could have some interest in the total here either team or game or half game, once the numbers all come in. Arizona bats should do damage.
Giants @ Phillies
Justin Verlander notched 20 whiffs in his last start. It was at home, against the Reds and he still allowed five runs. He’s allowed just three barrels with a 16.7 K-BB% and pitch modeling still likes the slider (55 PB, 124 P+). RHBs have a .357 wOBA, but .321 xwOBA against him since last year. Perhaps Verlander is experiencing a bit of bad luck for the first time in his career. He used to regularly break FIP in his prime.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -4/-2
B30: 3.41
BSR: -2
Jesus Luzardo’s slider is even better (62 PB, 141 P+) and so is his 29 K-BB%. Still feel like we’re waiting for that blow up spot where he allows four home runs, but he’s the April Cy Young.
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.77
BSR: 2
This is not a great park for Verlander. I wonder if the Phillies lean into the reverse split near the bottom of the order. Harper and Schwarber certainly aren’t sitting.
Guardians @ Orioles
Logan Allen has allowed the 396 RHBs he’s faced since last year a wOBA and xwOBA above .380.
Opp wRC+: 71
DEF: -6/-2
B30: 3.19
BSR: 0
Ten of Charlie Morton’s 17 strikeouts this year have come against the Red Sox. His low strikeout games against the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays make sense too. Two of the most contact prone offense and one of the most strikeout prone. Hard to decipher anything from that. That he has allowed seven barrels (17.5%) with a 62.5 HardHit%, while walking 12.1% of batters is extremely concerning, even with the 25.8 K%. Pitch modeling grades the fastball very poorly (27 PB, 56 P+), but he curveball still well (55, 114). The Guardians have been above average against fastballs, but below average against curveballs so far. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton since last year.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -4/-1
B30: 3.76
BSR: 0
Considering the weather looks great for Tuesday in Baltimore via google, this looks like a game where you’ll want plenty of bats.
Red Sox @ Rays
We’ll start with the positive trends here. On a cold, wet day at Fenway, Walker Buehler pitched 6.1 innings of one run ball, striking out seven Blue Jays. His velocity has increased in each start, beginning at 93 and up to 93.7 last time out. It was his strongest start by pitch modeling too (3.48 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+). He abandoned the sweeper in favor of more sinkers and changes. It’s the Boston way. Fangraphs wrote a nice article about the start and optimism it created on Monday. PitchingList is not buying it and I need to see more as well. Buehler generated just eight whiffs (89 pitches). His fastball is not going to generate such a high CSW (44%) and he won’t be able to consistently command so well. I think the weather helped him and he threw his best game. Remember, batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .330 wOBA against him since last year and he’s still sitting more than a mph below last year, which was lower than his pre-TJ velocity.
Opp wRC+: 127
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.41
BSR: 2
Since striking out eight Rockies with one walk in his first start, Ryan Pepiot has struck out a total of eight Pirates and Angels with six walks. All three starts have been at home, so perhaps he’s learning how to navigate this park, but none of those starts were against great offenses. His velocity was also down towards his career and last season level after being up nearly a mph last time out. With a 2.57 Bot ERA and 111 Pitching+, the talent is obviously there. He’s just going to be volatile.
Opp wRC+:
DEF:
B30:
BSR:
There are strikeouts here for Pepiot and he’s cheap on DraftKings (not on FanDuel). It’s a high risk GPP play. Tampa Bay bats have been smoking in this park.
Royals @ Yankees
Michael Wacha has just a 4.8 K-BB% through three starts against the Guardians, Orioles and Twins. He’s generally gone as the changeup has gone and it’s still one of the best pitches in the league (66 PB, 122 P+), but even that’s down from last year (79, 135) and the fastball has been a killer this year. As in the other team is killing it (44 PB, 77 P+). The wRC+ against it is 144, a problem since he throws it 41.4% of the time. It was 133 last year too, but that was when the wRC+ against the changeup was 52, not 91 like this year.
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: -2/-2
B30: 4.10
BSR: 1
Since his obligatory poor first start of every year, Max Fried has struck out 17 of 49 Pirates and Tigers with a single walk and barrel. Kansas City may be a bit better than Pittsburgh, but not any better than Detroit. And Fried is doing it with fastballs (64 PB last two starts, 130 P+ last two starts). Meanwhile, the Royals have been one of the worst offenses against fastballs this year (-1.95 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 1/2
B30: 3.51
BSR: 0
Maybe the largest favorite I support all year (-186 DK), but just look at the fastball comparisons and where don’t the Yankees have an edge in this game and substantially in some cases (offense). From a daily fantasy perspective, Fried is expensive and not traditionally a power pitcher against a contact prone offense. I think we’ll get a deep run here and it’s not like he’s below average in strikeout rate. I don’t dislike it as much as usual. You could have some Yankee exposure too in multi-entries.
Braves @ Blue Jays
Ten of Spencer Schwellenbach’s 19 strikeouts came against the Marlins, but he also allowed a single run and barrel in his starts against the Padres and Phillies, while 58.3% of his contact has been on the ground this year. He has Schwell pitch modeling numbers (2.77 Bot ERA, 116 Pitching+), while the Blue Jays have been one of the worst offenses against sliders (-1.0 wSL/C). Schwellenbach seems to have solved his issues against LHBs too (.216 wOBA, 16.7 K-BB% this year).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 2/4
B30: 4.07
BSR: -1
In the same Fenway cold weather game where Tanner Houck bounced back (and look what happened to him on in Tampa Monday night), Kevin Gausman threw eight shutout innings striking out 10 Red Sox on 17 whiffs. The Red Sox strike out more than most people realize, so that’s not incredibly impressive. Still, 10 strikeouts and 17 whiffs against a major league team is something to look at. It was all fastball though (13 of 17 whiffs). He’s throwing the pitch 56% of the time and it is still up in velocity since last season, but has dropped in velocity each start (92.8 mph at Fenway). It also got it’s worst pitch modeling grades of the season (59 PB, 113 P+). Which still means the fastball’s been great, right? But the splitter hasn’t been dominant, responsible for just four whiffs against the Red Sox with an average 50 PB and 95 Pitching+ mark on the season. The splitter had a 21.3 SwStr% in 2023 and even 16.1% last season. In three starts this year, it’s 4.4%. As with Houck yesterday and Buehler above, I’m just not there yet with Gausman.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 3.29
BSR:
As much as I hate to say it, Schwellenbach may be a tough roster against the Jays, as is any pitcher because nobody in their projected lineup strikes out even 20% of the time against RHP (since last year). I don’t mind an Atlanta stack in multi-entry. Looks like they’ve finally figured out how those wooden sticks work. I think they call them torpedoes?
Mets @ Twins
Tylor Megill is running the same 27.4 K% as last year, but with an increased 11.3 BB%. He’s allowed just a single barrel without a home run yet, but a 44.7 HardHit%. He’ll look strong throughout most of a start, but almost inevitably have a single breakdown inning (usually around the fifth or sixth) where he can’t find the plate. He should be a six to seven inning guy, but he’s only completed a total of 14.1 innings through three starts. What Megill has done positively is cut down from eight pitches last year to focus on a four-seam, slider and sinker on nearly 90% of his pitches this year. Pitch modeling likes both fastballs, especially the sinker (74 PB, 140 P+) and the Twins have really struggled against both types of fastball this year, especially four-seamers (-1.88 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 2/1
B30: 2.93
BSR: 2
Since getting shelled in his first start for the second season in a row (Cardinals), Bailey Ober has allowed just two runs over 10 innings to Astros and Royals since, striking out nine of 41 with three walks. His velocity has been down about a mph from last year in all three starts. Ober hasn’t even been allowed to hit 85 pitches in a single start yet. Neither pitch modeling system likes the slider (42 PB, 92 P+), which may explain his substantial 35 to 40 point wOBA and xwOBA reverse split since last year.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -2/-1
B30: 3.51
BSR: 1
Pitcher friendly weather in Minny again. Near 50 with a double digit wind out to right to help circumvent some of the cooler temperatures. There should be more strikeouts for Megill than Ober and even probably a slightly longer leash. That said, Megill is more expensive than Ober, especially on DraftKings. Ober is too cheap on DK, while Megill is also a solid choice for $7.9K. I’d rather not play their FanDuel prices with workload concerns, especially Ober.
Athletics @ White Sox
Since dominating the Mariners in Seattle in his first start, Jeffrey Springs has struggled against stiffer competition (Cubs, Padres) in Sacramento. On the positive end, his velocity has increased half a mph with each start, while he’s allowed just two barrels with a 31.1 HardHit%. The changeup is still shutting bats down (27.6 SwStr%, 60 PB, 119 P+), but both the fastball and slider are below a 9.0 SwStr%. Springs has about a 100 point natural split since returning from injury last year.
Opp wRC+: 55
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 3.96
BSR: 1
Sean Burke has posted a mere 6.8 K-BB% with nine barrels (20%) through three starts. He hasn’t faced a juggernaut of offenses either (Angels, Twins, Guardians). However, PitchingBot likes the arsenal (3.52 Bot ERA) and even Pitching+ thinks he can be average (99). Batters from the right-hand side have a .326 wOBA, but .429 xwOBA against Burke in his short career.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 2/1
B30: 3.85
BSR: 0
I don’t know what to make of the weather here. Should still be a bit pitcher friendly, I think? Regardless, Springs has the best matchup on the board. He’s not cheap and he’s not my top pitcher, but he’s fine. A predominantly right-handed Oakland lineup should give Burke some trouble.
Tigers @ Brewers
Jack Flaherty has walked seven of 66 batters and hasn’t completed six innings yet, but has also struck out 21 with just a 35.1 HardHit%, allowing three runs over 16.2 innings to the Dodgers, White Sox and Yankees. The fluctuating velocity remains a thing (93.6 – 92.0 – 92.4) and as we learned last year, he’s a different pitcher when he can sit 93 mph or better. Flaherty has about a 30 to 40 point reverse split. PitchingBot is not on board with what he’s throwing (4.62 Bot ERA), though both systems like the curveball (63 PB, 125 P+).
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.84
BSR: 1
Quinn Priester was fine in his Brewer debut at Coors, striking out just four of 21, but keeping 57.1% of his contact on the ground. He’s incorporated a cutter, which, in combination with his sinker, made up more than two-thirds of pitches thrown in the start. Pitch modeling hates both pitches though (6.00 Bot ERA, 88 Pitching+). Tough to judge pitch movement at Coors, but LHBs are within a point of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 126
DEF: 1/1
B30: 4.13
BSR: 1
Jack Flaherty is just behind Max Fried for my top pitcher on the board, but pitcher pricing is tough today. There aren’t a ton of strikeouts here, but enough in a marginal lineup in a park that leans pitcher friendly now with the roof closed. Despite just a 3.75 team total, I’m going to side with Detroit LHBs until Priester’s cutter proves me wrong.
Astros @ Cardinals
After striking out 15 of 45 Mets and Twins, while sitting close to 98 mph, Hunter Brown took a trip to Seattle and struck out just three Mariners, a full mph lower on average. The good news is that he retained a SwStr rate above 12% in that start, still kept over half his contact on the ground (61.4% season) and only allowed five hard hit batted balls (29.4%). He’s still sitting on a 23.1 K-BB% and 27.3 HardHit%. Always nice when that first number is close to the second. All of his pitches grade average or better (3.27 Bot ERA, 115 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: 6/3
B30: 2.99
BSR: 0
Erick Fedde is coming off six no-hit innings against the Pirates, in which he generated 13 swings and misses in 87 pitches, but walked more (four) than he struck out (two). He’s now walked eight with just five strikeouts facing the struggling offenses of Minnesota, Boston and Pittsburgh. His velocity has dropped at least a mph in each start. All of his pitches grade below average (5.07 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+). The only thing helping him in this spot is a small split (RHBs .282 wOBA, .291 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 6/0
B30: 3.85
BSR: 0
I like Hunter Brown for a bounce back, but it’s merely an okay spot. The Cardinals have been smoking and the run environment is neutral, but it might be pitcher friendly weather (again, cool, but with wind blowing out). Brown is also the second most expensive pitcher on either site. I’d rather go against Fedde than with him, but the Alvarez may be the only Houston bat you can trust.
Angels @ Rangers
Yusei Kikuchi has sat 94.4 mph, a full mph below last year, in all three starts this season. While he has two quality starts and three outings of six innings, he’s also allowed 10 runs in those 18 innings in Chicago (AL), Tampa Bay and St Louis with just a 10.8 K-BB% and BB%. Kikuchi has allowed seven barrels. Batters have a 146 wRC+ on the slider and 178 on the fastball. Somehow, pitch modeling still likes his stuff (3.41 Bot ERA, 108 Pitching+), especially the slider (58, 123).
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 1/-4
B30: 4.92
BSR: 2
Since exiting his first start in the second inning, Tyler Mahle has allowed just a single run in his last 12 innings against the Rays and at Wrigley, despite his velocity dropping sharply in each start, starting the season at 93.1 mph and last seen averaging 90.4 mph. Let’s hope we can blame that on the Wrigley weather. That said, pitch modeling has seen his splitter (25.6%) as a dominant pitch (61 PB, 127 P+). We do want to be careful that RHBs go from a .299 wOBA to a .376 xwOBA since his return from injury late last year and the Angels are a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 0/-5
B30: 3.23
BSR: 1
In a protected, neutral environment with he roof closed, both offenses are between four and four and a half implied runs. I’m not touching Kikuchi right now and am fine stacking against him. Mahle is a more difficult case at $8K, but I think I’d rather him against a more LH lineup. It’s not like he’s missing a ton of bats.
Cubs @ Padres
Shota Imanaga will be making his fifth start with two outings of at least seven innings with just one run allowed. Three of his seven barrels (10%) have left the park with just a 7.7 K-BB% and BB%. He hasn’t exceeded four strikeouts in a start yet, but has faced a very tough schedule (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rangers). His velocity sat 92.3 mph in his first two starts, but just 90.3 in his last two. He averaged 91.2 mph last season. Pitch modeling loves the fastball at 92 or 90 (67 PB, 125 P+) with more marginal grading on the slider, which graded below average last year. Maybe he’s the same guy and just has to get into his own division more.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 3/4
B30: 4.54
BSR: -1
Randy Vasquez has allowed just four runs (three earned) over 15.2 innings, despite walking 12 of 62 batters with just six strikeouts. Perhaps the 25 HardHit% is the best reason why. He hasn’t reached a five percent SwStr in any of his starts. LHBs have a .394 wOBA and .418 xwOBA him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: -4/-4
B30: 3.32
BSR: 3
Pitcher’s park with temperatures below 60 should be an ideal spot for Imanaga, but there’s just not enough upside in starting pitchers against the Padres. He struck out just four of them last time out and isn’t cheap. Of course, we’re looking for left-handed Cubs against Vasquez, despite the park effects.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Ryan Feltner has posted an impressive 17.6 K-BB% against the Rays, A’s and Brewers, a few offenses that offer that type of upside. Neither pitch modeling system is very impressed with his arsenal though (4.87 Bot ERA, 87 Pitching+). Batters from either side are between a .300 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: 2/5
B30: 5.56
BSR: 1
Landon Knack walked four Nationals and struck out just two of 15 in his first start. The change (27.5%) and curve (23.2%) graded poorly (below 45 PB and 90 Pitching+). Knack ran an impressive 17.8 K-BB% through 68 major league innings last year and I’m not going to kill him on one short spot start.
Opp wRC+: 56
DEF: -1/1
B30: 3.37
BSR: -1
Not a lot to say about the pitchers here, but we’re hardly ever rostering pitchers against the Dodgers and I’m more lukewarm on Dodger bats not named Ohtani against Feltner, who is a competent pitcher. It’s more about price and ownership though, at 5.63 implied runs atop the board. Of course, we’re always extremely interested in home pitchers against the Rockies. This may be a better matchup than the White Sox. Ton of strikeouts.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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