Ten games is one of the larger Thursday slates you’ll see and we even have a reasonable five game evening daily fantasy slate. I must forewarn you about the pitching available on it though.
Okay, so my bold call on Kris Bubic on Wednesday didn't exactly crush the daily fantasy contests, but he did cover his K-prop.
Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Twelve of Eduardo Rodriguez’s 20 strikeouts have come in just one start in Washington, where they swung and missed a lot of fastballs and also watched them pass by for strikes. Not expecting him to sustain such a performance, his 4.86 ERA is still well above estimators due to a 58.1 LOB%, while he’s not allowing a lot of hard contact (33.3%). Expect the 20.6 K-BB% to drop, but with average pitch modeling, he should still be fine.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 2/2
B30: 2.63
BSR: 1
Edward Cabrera is the only pitcher on Thursday not working on his fourth start of the season. After not walking any of the 24 AAA batters he faced in rehab starts, Cabrera walked three of 24 Nationals, but with five strikeouts, a 13.9 SwStr% and 1.6 mph increase in velocity. While his sinker graded dominantly (65 PitchingBot, 133 Stuff+), his slider cratered (30, 57), resulting in very similar overall marks to last year (4.94 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+). LHBs had a .404 wOBA against Cabrera in the start and are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 135
DEF: 1/3
B30: 5.02
BSR: 1
If I had a list of things people were waiting on for pitchers to break out over the last five years that still hasn’t occurred, Edward Cabrera’s control/command would be pretty high on it. I have very little interest in the battle of Crazy Eddies except for my future on the Diamondbacks finishing above .500.
Nationals @ Pirates
Trevor Williams is throwing a fastball that averages 87.5 mph (1.4 mph below last year) 28% of the time and pitch modeling loves it (67 PB, 122 P+). The only pitch he throws more often is the slider (41.4%) and pitch modeling likes that one too (56. 110). An 11.8 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit% is fine from a fifth starter. (Is that what they consider him?) The .404 BABIP and 60.3 LOB% are why the ERA is so high. Do I believe in him anywhere near as much as pitch modeling? Not at all, but he could be fine here.
Opp wRC+: 65
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 4.78
BSR: 0
Andrew Heaney is also down 1.5 mph, sitting at 90 mph on the dot on average so far. The result so far has been a 20 K-BB% that’s 2.2 points higher than his career level. If you don’t count 18 batted balls in 2016, it’s also the best hard hit rate of his career so far (34.8%). Again, both pitch modeling systems like the fastball (58, 104), though not the secondaries (curve, change) in this case.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 4.14
BSR: -1
Not as cold or windy on Thursday, but still on the cooler side. I’ve already jumped on the under here, it’s mostly a weather and offenses thing for this entire series. The Nationals are below average and the Pirates are below water. The Buccos don’t even seem to know where the boat is anymore. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Mariners @ Reds
Bryan Woo is up nearly a mph this season, but like most Seattle pitchers has a bit of a home/road split. Woo dropped 7.3 points of K-BB% on the road in 2024. It’s tough to get away with just fastballs and sinkers (combined 73.4% of pitches) outside of Seatte, but I imagine he might lean more sinker heavy in this park? While batters increased by nearly 60 points of wOBA on the road against Woo last season, it was still just .276.
Opp wRC+: 81
DEF: -6/-8
B30: 3.80
BSR: 1
Brady Sinker…I mean Singer…is also a two pitch pitcher with 75.3% sinkers and sliders. The difference being that where pitch modeling loves both of Woo’s fastballs, Singer’s sinker is just average at best (48 PB, 98 P+). Singer has also added a cutter 14.4% of the time, but with declining usage in each game and that may be for the best (31 PB, 42 P+). The best thing Singer can do in this park is keep the ball on the ground, but wait…38.6% is easily a career low. With a 45.5 HardHit%, he’s lucky to have allowed just a pair of barrels. On an actual positive note, whether they like the pitch or not, the slider is generating a 17.6 SwStr% with a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 so far. The result has been a 17.6 K-BB% that would be the second best mark of his career, though I’m skeptical it will hold.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 3/2
B30: 114
BSR: 2
The Woo Singer matchup is one I’m only interested in as much as I’m interested to see what happens to any Seattle pitcher on the road.
Athletics @ White Sox
The velocity is up half a mph from last season, so J.P. Sears is throwing his fastball more and has abandoned the sinker he started throwing 10% of the time last season. But, honestly, it’s all about the sweeper (45.2%, 64 PB, 122 P+). It’s the driving force behind his 18.1 K-BB%, but you’d still like to see a little bit better contact profile (9.6% Barrels/BBE and 44.2 HardHit% won’t play as well in Sacramento). RHBs are within three points of a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Sears since last year.
Opp wRC+: 61
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 3.84
BSR: 1
Davis Martin has allowed one earned run over 12 innings pitched in Chicago this year (Angels, Red Sox), but perhaps that’s because the weather has been terrible this month. There’s disagreement between models here (3.42 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+) and a 13.5 K% (7.5 SwStr%) ain’t it, especially with six barrels and a 50.9 HardHit%. I don’t see this working out that well for much longer and it’s supposed to heat up to the upper 50s in Chicago on Thursday.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 2/1
B30: 3.92
BSR: 0
The Roster Resource projected lineup for the White Sox against LHP now includes a pair of batters striking out more than 30% of the time against southpaws, but the entire rest of the lineup below 20%.
Giants @ Phillies
Why not throw your 97.2 mph sinker (up from 94.5 last year) 59.8% of the time? It’s either that or a slider and pitch modeling loves both pitches (3.12 Bot ERA, 110 Pitching+). But how are you getting LHBs out? They’re above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA since last year and .200 points higher than RHBs this year. With just an 11.6 K-BB%, career low 48.9 GB% and 55.3 HardHit%, that’s certainly a question he’ll have to answer against the Phillies.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -4/-2
B30: 3.47
BSR: -2
Christopher Sanchez is throwing more than a mph harder than last year with improvements in K-BB (19.2%), SwStr (12.7%), Bot ERA (2.98) and Pitching+ (115). He’s allowed just a single barrel. His ground ball rate may be below 50% for the first time, but that’s fine. He’s still allowed a single barrel.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.61
BSR: 2
You want bold? Sanchez may have surpassed Wheeler.
Guardians @ Orioles
Yikes! While Tanner Bibee has only allowed a run in one of his three starts, he’s struck out and walked six each in those two outings, allowed seven runs in the other and has failed to complete five innings in each of his last two. His fastball is down about half a mph and he’s now throwing a sinker 16.4% of the time. Perhaps he should keep it (57 PB, 141 P+) and ditch the fastball he’s still throwing 40.1% of the time (33, 63). While they both have a sub-10 SwStr%, at least the sinker is generating ground balls.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: -6/-2
B30: 3.14
BSR: 0
Tomo Sugano has more than one strikeout in just one of his three starts with a high of four and just as many walks. He’s throwing six different pitches between 11.5% and 21.3% of the time and only two of them appear to be average by pitch modeling methods (sinker & changeup), though the fastball is the only one exceeding a 10 SwStr%. With a below average contact profile, a 0.0 K-BB% is a killer. In his defense, Toronto (twice) and Kansas City are not the lineups to accumulate Ks against, but neither is Cleveland.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.75
BSR: 0
Eyeballing this slate, you’d probably go, “oh, yeah, Bibee”, but it has not been going well and this is not a get right spot for him. I’m not in on either pitcher in this game and with temperatures in the 60s, I might even side with bats.
Royals @ Tigers
Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of 24 Brewers in his first start of the season and seven of 48 Twins and Guardians since, while his SwStr% has dropped with each start along with his velocity. With half his contact on the ground, he’s still allowed five barrels (9.3%), due to a 42.6 HardHit%. Yet, the grades on all his pitches (all six he throws at least 8.9% of the time) are up. He’s gone from a 5.10 Bot ERA last year to 3.73 this season and an 89 Pitching+ to 102. RHBs still have a .336 wOBA against him this year and a .350 wOBA with a .356 xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: -2/-1
B30: 4.07
BSR: 1
Reese Olson has not looked good in any of his three starts this season. Sure, one was against the Dodgers, but one was also against the White Sox. With just a 7.5 K-BB% and 51.1 HardHit%, it’s a surprise he’s allowed just a single barrel. That said, his pitch modeling has improved somehow too. He’s gone from a 5.01 Bot ERA and 93 Pitching+ last year to 4.16 and 97 this year. LHBs remain a problem (.317 wOBA, .325 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 62
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.96
BSR: 0
A pair of heavy sinker ball pitchers who’s pitch modeling grades far surpass their results. I know I have to pick a pitcher soon, but I don’ think either of these men are it either. That said, the Detroit offense has been looking great so far, while the Royals have been awful. I don’t see any facet of this game where the Royals have an edge either. I like the home team (-142) to prevail.
Yankees @ Rays
Will Warren’s pure stuff grades are above average to elite on all three of his main pitches and even with command problems, he still generates a 3.99 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+. Those command problems have led to a 12.3 BB% and 48.6 HardHit% with five barrels through three starts, but the 26.3 K% shows the upside if he can put it all together, as he did last time out against the Giants (5 IP – 2 H – 2 R – 2 BB – 6 K).
Opp wRC+: 135
DEF: 1/2
B30: 3.49
BSR: 2
Taj Bradley has struck out exactly seven in all three starts, allowing just three runs total in a pair of home starts against the Rockies and Braves, though he did struggle somewhat in Texas. You’d think he’d be dominant with a 22.1 K-BB% and 35 HardHit%, but the splitter is the only one of his three main pitches even considered average among pitch modeling systems. The fastballs 45 PB and 78 P+ pave the way for a 4.93 Bot ERA and 87 Pitching+ overall.
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: 0/-5
B30: 3.65
BSR: 1
A couple of days after hanging a pair of touchdowns on Tanner Houck in this park, the Rays were shutout by Sean Newcomb in Coors East. I don’t like that Bradley’s fastball is so yucky and the Yankees smash fastballs, so you have to have some offensive exposure in this game, but on a five game slate, I’m fine betting on the upside of either of these pitchers in GPPs on a five game slate, especially with Bradley the highest priced pitcher on the board.
Cardinals @ Mets
A 69.6 GB% would have you believing that Andre Pallante were yet another sinker heavy pitcher on today’s slate, yet he only throws it 11.8% of the time, while throwing a four seamer 53.6% of the time. His just happens to generate ground balls. One issue of concern here is that Pallante’s velocity dropped off 1.5 mph from his first start and another half mph in his most recent, which would put him nearly a 1.5 mph below last year. Pitching+ still likes the pitch (108), while PitchingBot sees it below average now (47). Neither system likes the slider (35, 78) or the overall arsenal (5.79 Bot ERA, 94 Pitching+). That’s a drop off from last season. He’s posting the same 9.1 K-BB% with more ground balls, but also more hard contact (47.8%). Don’t expect him to sustain the .182 BABIP or 91.5 LOB%. I’m sure the Mets will attempt to capitalize on his reverse split too.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 6/0
B30: 3.86
BSR: 2
Griffin Canning was scratched due to illness on Wednesday. Is he healthy and strong enough to pitch well here? Is he good enough to? Anybody with eyes could have told Canning to stop throwing his fastball (37 PB, 68 P+ this year, 35, 70 last year) so much and he’s down to a career low 31.3% so far and that still may be too much. The Cardinals crush fastballs (1.07 wFA/C). Canning has had some issues with command, returning a 7.7 K-BB% a point lower than last year, but the ground ball rate is up to 50% and that’s a career high by nearly eight points. Extremely necessary with a 59.1 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 2/1
B30: 2.99
BSR: 0
Oh boy, we’re running out of pitchers here. Great park, cool weather, but you can’t pay $9K for a low upside Pallante. You may be forced to roster Canning on DraftKings with few other options.
Angels @ Rangers
Here was see the famous Crotch Rocker from Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back…what? That’s not his name? And that’s not who’s pitching either. It’s Koch and Rocker? I may rather watch Jay and Silent Bob.
Jack Koch throws sinkers, but just 53.7% of the time this season (95.7% last year). Has it increased his K-BB%? No, that’s down a point to 4.5%. It’s decreased his ground ball rate to 51% and he’s allowing more barrels (9.8%). All still small sample stuff, but all his pitch grades are down (4.35 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+). LHBs have a .332 wOBA, but .362 xwOBA against Koch in his career.
Opp wRC+: 77
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 4.80
BSR: 3
What is this? Nationals Sinker Day? Kumar Rocker throws his sinker 40.2% of the time, but at least it’s average (53 PB, 107 P+). The problem is that nothing else is (5.00 Bot ERA, 90 Pitching+). He’s kept 50% of his contact on the ground, but struck out just six of 55 batters (8.2 SwStr%) with a 56.8 HardHit% and he’s not facing elite offenses either (Reds, Rays, Mariners).
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 0/-2
B30: 3.22
BSR: 2
No. You’re not using pitchers here either. In fact, if the roof is open, your certainly running with bats here. Happy Sinker Day!
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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