We've now reached the point where every remaining game in any division series is an elimination game. On Thursday, we have both American League Game Fours and because of the odds scheduling (days off after Games One and Two), at least three of the four teams are bringing back their Game One starters with the Tigers continuing upon their pitcher chaos path with the likely result another Reese Olson bulk outing.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Since all of these pitchers have already started Game One of this series, the notes are going to be updated blurbs from that posts with Game One results. After all, nothing has changed except for those pair of single games.
Guardians @ Tigers
Tanner Bibee sees his first post-season action coming off a 20.1 K-BB% in his second major league season. This, along with 7.0% Barrels/BBE and a 36.9 HardHit% produces estimators all above, but within half a run of his 3.47 ERA. They are slightly cautious on the 34.6 GB%. Bibee finished the season with 19.2 innings of six run ball over his last three start and had a long layoff (Sept 24th – Oct 5th) between starts. Normally, he’s be the only Cleveland pitcher afforded any kind of leash, but this is an elimination game for the Gaurdians. Bibee’s split (LHBs .336 wOBA, .318 xwOBA – RHBs .252, .289) is a bit of a concern against this Detroit offense. What’s not a concern are Bibee’s 60 grade changeup (18%, 0.9 RV/100) as the Tigers were the second worst offense since the deadline against that pitch (-0.87 wCH/C).
He faced just 19 Tigers, striking out six with a walk and four hits. He also hit one, but did not allow a run in Game One. Of the 76 pitches thrown, 33 were fastaballs, averaging just 0.3 mph over his season mark. He did well to avoid the absolute center of the plate and generated more swings (39) than takes (37). Cleveland swung and missed 11 of Bibee’s pitches, fouling 17 off and reaching a 95 mph EV on five of 11 balls put into play, which was apparently too many for Vogt’s liking. I was surprised to see him exit so early in that outing.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.2 K%, 79 PS)
DEF: 5/27
B30: 2.86
BSR: 8
They have Ty Madden and Jackson Jobe on the roster. I suppose Keider Montero could come back for a few innings, but Reese Olson makes the most sense here.
I’m going to assume Olson throws three to five innings here. I wouldn’t expect much of a change even if it’s not. Olson is a ground baller (50.6%), who followed up a stretch of 28 strikeouts over 92 batters by ending the season striking out just 12 of his last 70. A reasonable 14.0 K-BB% on the season, while the ground balls helped him generate just 5.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a 43.7 HardHit%. With LHBs above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .260, this is a problematic split against the Guardians. Despite not a single estimator exceeding four and, therefore, within half a run of his 3.53 ERA, Olson doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade exceeding 50, resulting in a 5.00 Bot ERA to compliment 91 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks. The fastball (23.4%, -0.4 RV/100) could be the largest problem here (Guardians 0.56 wFA/C is the third best mark since the trade deadline).
The 20 Guardians Olson faced in Game One were the most batters he faced since before the All-Star break. He did allow a home run, but that was the only damage, striking out four with a walk, HBP and just three hits over five innings. Olson mixed up his 73 pitches well, lining up well with his season velocity, throwing very few pitches above the middle of the belt. He produces 13 whiffs and another 13 foul balls. Most of his weak contact was on the ground, but four of seven hard hit batted balls were in the air. A 50 HardHit% was not ideal, but more tolerable with more than half his contact on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20 K%, 92 Road, 50 PS)
DEF: 19/22
B30: 3.83
BSR: 3
I’m very much in line with the market here, assuming Olson bulking. All I can do is sit back and hope for the Guardians not to botch the DS RR parlay. Todd Tichenor is a fairly hitter friendly umpire.
Yankees @ Royals
Gerrit Cole’s 17.9 K-BB% is not just his lowest mark since Pittsburgh, but the first time he’s been below 21% (last year) and second time he’s been below 25% since leaving the steel city. Once certainly wonders if there’s been a decline in pitch quality, but Cole did reach a 25 K-BB% or better in 10 of his 17 starts. Four of the seven times he failed to do so were against either playoff offenses (Mets 2x, Orioles, Guardians) or other tough offenses (Red Sox, Blue Jays). None the less, his Bot ERA (3.76) was a quarter run above last year, which was a half run above the year before, while his Stuff+ has dropped from 139 to 121 to 111 over the last three seasons. Cole is still a quality pitcher and a top end of the rotation one, but estimators all exceeding his 3.41 ERA without reaching five do say something.
It appears those concerns were warranted, as Cole lasted 23 batters and five innings in Game One, striking out just four with two walks and a home run. Four runners crossed the plate, three earned. The velocity was actually up more than half a mph from his season average and tied for his best effort of the season, but unlike other pitchers I’ve mentioned this post-season, Cole was much more down the middle of the plate and rarely on the corner. Maybe the problem is that his stuff doesn't play well enough for him to get away with that anymore, but batters swung and missed at just six of his 80 pitches, though with 20 foul balls. The real killer was 11 of his 17 batted balls at 95 mph or harder off the bat and only ONE of those on the ground. That’s a disastrous outing for Cole and it all came down to command. Or lack thereof.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 73 PS)
DEF: 6/18
B30: 3.08
BSR: 5
On the surface, Michael Wacha allowed even as many as three earned runs just four times over his last 22 starts. Underneath, his 15.2 K-BB% was just a bit above his season rate of 14.6% with 8.4% Barrels/BBE, but just a 30.9 HardHit%. Just 13 of his 31 barrels over that span left the yard, helping him to an 81.5 LOB%. A power suppressing home park explains the diffence between Wacha’s 3.35 ERA this season, his 3.65 FIP and remaining estimators ranging from 4.05 (xERA) and 4.17 (SIERA). That’s still league average work, which is fine, but Wacha did it with one elite pitch (changeup 32.2%, 2 RV/100, 80 PB grade). By PitchingBot grades, it was the best pitch in the game. You can’t go any higher than 80 on a 20-80 scale. Wacha also had a good fastball (23.8%, 0.2 RV/100, 55 PB grade), but no other pitch reaching a 50 PB grade. The problem with all of this is that the Yankees hit both fastballs and changeups (and everything other than cutters) well since the trade deadline. As far as splits go with the Yankees appearing to lean more left-handed at this point, LHBs had a .301 wOBA and .302 xwOBA, while RHBs had a .298 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA. The reverse split would make sense in terms of the changeup.
Wacha’s Game One struggles were not as shocking as Cole’s. He struck out and walked three each of the 19 batters he faced over just four innings, allowing a home run and two more runs. Wacha threw between 15 and 18 changeups, sinkers, cutters and fastballs with a 1.3 mph increase on his season average velocity and over half a mph above any start average. Maybe it was a problem that the changeup was up two mph too? Like Cole, he was heavily over the plate and rarely on the corners, living up in the zone with the sinker (orange), which isn’t necessarily a bad thing if you’re going to throw it opposite handed batters. Wacha generated 11 swinging strikes, the same amount of foul balls and nine called strikes with only five hard hit batted balls (none on his changeup), but just one of those on the ground (that curveball in light blue you see right in the middle of the plate).
Opp wRC+: 120 (117 Road, 107 PS)
DEF: 28/19
B30: 4.39
BSR: -7
If I were forced to play something on Thursday, it would be KC at +132. There's no F5 line yet and it's the only side I show any positive value on at all, though not enough to feel comfortable with. I think Cole can be beaten in his current state, but would want something exceeding +140.
Update
This will be today's only update, covering a few things.
First, the numbers above have been updated to include Wednesday's performances.
Second, we have standard weather in Kansas City, 75 mph with a light wind in from right, but it'll dip below 60 in Detroit.
We have all lineups in already except for the Yankees. The only unexpected change is McKinstry in for Perez.
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