A four game slate for the last time this season. No more than two a day from here on out and they're not making it easy. Detroit, San Diego and Los Angeles are all unconfirmed at pitcher, while there probably won't be a SDP/LAD line until after midnight EST. (I'm beginning this in the middle innings of the early game on Tuesday.)
Shildt's answer to the question of who would start for the Padres was that they will have a pitcher who will start the game. Martin Perez? Not in an elimination game though. The Dodgers could go with Landon Knack and the Tigers could go anywhere except Skubal and probably Olson.
Lastly, if you look below, I've taken to utilizing post-season bullpen numbers, but remember how small these samples are, especially for teams who received a first round bye, and won't include Tuesday's NLDS games until a Wednesday update.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Guardians @ Tigers
Alex Cobb started just three games, covering 16.1 innings from August 9th through September 1st for Cleveland. The Guardians took a look at their other options, shrugged and said “good enough”. One would assume he’s been stretching out via bullpens the last few weeks. The Cobb signature, ground balls, were firmly in place (61.2%), but he struck out just 10 of 62 batters (Twins, Cubs, Pirates) with a 5.8 SwStr% with three walks and barrels plus a 44.9 HardHit%. His best game was his last, where he struck out six of 20 with fastball velocity increased a mph over the other two starts and a 12.5 SwStr%.
Left-handed batters had a .395 xwOBA against him, which exceeded actual results by a run, but that’s still an extremely small sample. Let’s consider individual pitches. The sinker (56 PB grade) and Thing/splitter (58) were still good pitches and should work against a Detroit offense that was the fourth worst offense in the league against sinkers post-trade deadline (-1.38 wSI/C). A 107 Stuff+ and Pitching+ also suggest Cobb still has the goods.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.2 K%, 90 Post-season)
DEF: 5/26
B30: 2.99 (post-season numbers now, two games)
BSR: 6
I’m going to guess Brant Hurter bulking makes the most sense here with the Guardians keeping three LHBs (Kwan/J.Naylor/GImenez) in against LHP and Manzardo and J.Naylor on the bench. He’ll likely get an opener, but Tyler Holton might defeat the purpose of Hurter here, so perhaps Montero second and then Hurter? A lefty does put Cleveland in their better split, despite the predominance of LHBs against RHP.
Regardless, Hurter has thrown 1.2 post-season innings, striking out none of the eight batters he faced with a walk and a plunk, but four of six batted balls on the ground. Over 45.1 regular season innings (just one start, but just twice below 50 pitches and one was his debut), Hurter posted an 18.3 K-BB%, but with five of his first six at 19% and only one of his last four above 10% (not counting post-season). With 53.1% of his contact on the ground though, he was an excellent contact manager (4.6% Barrels/BBE, 36.6 HardHit%). As such, his 2.26 xERA was below a 2.58 ERA with no other estimators below three, though none reaching three and a half.
The sinker (50.4%, 1.8 RV/100, 70 PB grade) was his only positively graded pitch, but an elite one and one the Guardians struggled against post-deadline (-1.49 wSI/C), even more so than Detroit. This one pitch was enough to give Hurter a 3.41 Bot ERA, but less optimistic 89 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+.
So this is going to be Keider Montero, though I'm not sure we still don't see Hurter at some point and will leave his info above. It puts the Guardians in their lesser split, despite their standard lineup against RHP, which includes eight LHBs because Montero includes at least the threat of a standard start, which I don't think we'll get here. Montero threw two innings against Houston, striking out three of seven batters. His season numbers include just an 11.2 K-BB% and solid contact profile (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 37.9 HardHit%), yet his contact inclusive estimators exceeded five and a his 4.76 ERA, while contact neutral estimators ran only slightly lower with his best estimator being a 4.33 xFIP.
Batters from either side of the plate were between a .325 and .355 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs a bit better, which is a minor reason to pitch him here, but those LHB numbers were still pretty strong. Montero's pitch modeling was a bit better. Only the changeup (10.7%, 42 PB grade) fell below a 50 PitchingBot grade, resulting in a 4.15 Bot ERA, while a 96 Stuff+ works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.0 K%, 92 Road, 71 PS)
DEF: 19/20
B30: 3.92
BSR: 1
It’s a good thing my number match up with the market here (assuming a Hurter bulk role) because I wouldn’t be too confident on either side, considering Cobb’s small sample and Detroit’s mystery. Will still be rooting for the Guardians to bring the series home at some point for the first leg of the DS RR. Umpire Jim Wolf leans pitcher friendly.
Phillies @ Mets
After allowing 38 runs over his last 52.1 innings (11 starts) with less than half his contact on the ground (49.1%) and 9.8 K-BB%, it might be a questionable decision to even give Ranger Saurez this start in an elimination game. The only good news is that he kept his overall contact profile in place (5.1% Barrels/BBE, 32.2 HardHit%). The .361 BABIP and 66.8 LOB% over this span probably aren’t sustainable, while eight of nine barrels left the yard (16.7 HR/FB). He also kept the quality of his two best pitches, his sinker (58 PB grade, 30.3% over this stretch) and curveball (61, 21.6%). His Stuff+ dropped to 79 though, with a 98 Pitching+. On the season overall, Suarez ran a 3.46 ERA that was within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. A 16 point reverse split was reversed into a standard 24 point xwOBA split by Statcast with all batters between .277 and .310. Suarez will put the Mets in their better split. In fact, both offenses held the same wRC+ against LHP this year.
Opp wRC+: 118 (114 Home)
DEF: 7/5
B30: 5.18 (pen has been disastrous first two games and it won’t get better adding in Tuesday - Update: it did not)
BSR: -5
Jose Quintana had just a 10.0 K-BB% this season. It increased to a more respectable 12% over his last 18 starts and 18.5% over his last four starts, including whiffing nine of the 20 Brewers he faced in his last regular season start, but it’s unlikely you’re teaching this dog many new tricks at his age. Quintana’s 3.75 ERA is mostly the product of a .263 BABIP (.303 career and not below .300 since 2018) and 78.2 LOB% (73.6% career, best since 2016). Quintana’s best estimator was a 4.44 xFIP, though he can still hold a team in check when he’s hitting his spots and the Mets are playing strong up the middle defense behind him. A bit unfortunate that 22 of his 34 barrels (6.7%) left the park. His 37.8 HardHit% this year was nearly two points higher than his career average.
He does put the Phillies in their more superior split again. It again concerns me that Mendoza has shown a tendency to stick with his guys too long and having the one game lead may make him even more likely to do so. With batters from either side of the plate between a .308 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA, Quintana had a 16 point standard wOBA split this year, though Statcast shows a 25 point reverse xwOBA split. No pitch in his arsenal reached a 50 Pitching Bot grade, resulting in a 5.19 Bot ERA to coincide with 83 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ marks. The changeup (19.3%, -0.1 RV/100, 41 PB grade) and fastballs (22.5%, -0.2 RV/100, 37 PB grade) were the greatest offenders. Too many changeups might be a mistake against the Phillies (1.46 wCH/C was second best post-trade deadline).
In his first post-season start against the Brewers, Quintana struck out five of 23 Brewers with just one walk and four hits over six shutout innings with the changeup (27 of them) being his most frequently used pitch. His 91 mph fastball was in line with his last 18 starts (90.9), mentioned above. Quintana was on his game here, not allowing a single pitch to leak middle-middle, inducing 41 swings and 11 whiffs with four of his six hard hit batted balls on the ground. Do this again and the Mets will be headed to California, but I don't expect the Phillies to chase him out of the zone as often as a younger Milwaukee offense might have.
Opp wRC+: 118 (85 PS)
DEF: 7/8
B30: 4.69 (should look a bit better after Tuesday, but Stanek has been only reliable reliever - Update: only slightly)
BSR: 2
While rooting for the Mets to bring home another leg of the DS RR parlay, I don’t see how this game has such a low total. In fact, I’m going to split two units between full game, F5 and each side going over their totals. Both lineups blast LHP and neither bullpen has helped much in this post-season. Quintana has to be near perfect to be competitive at this point in his career and Suarez hasn't been competitive since July.
Yankees @ Royals
Clarke Schmidt was on his way to a breakout season with a 19 K-BB% through 11 starts before hitting the IL at the end of May. He didn’t return until September, posting a 15.1 K-BB% over his final five starts, though with a HartHit rate exceeding 43% in four of the five. None the less, Aaron Boone had seen enough to name him his Game Three starter. Schmidt’s Stuff+ actually improved to 119 since his return.
On the season, his 2.85 ERA is well below still very fine estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 3.92 xFIP. An 80% strand rate was the main reason for this. Batters from the left-hand side had a .305 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against Schmidt this year, which is an improvement from last season, while RHBs had a .275 wOBA, but also a .302 xwOBA. Schmidt’s best pitch was a curveball (18.2%, 1.5 RV/100, 64 PB grade) that should see some success here (Royals -0.26 wCU/C since the deadline was bottom third of the league). His 115 Stuff+ was up there with the league leaders this year, but with just a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 80 PS)
DEF: 6/18
B30: 2.35 (MLB best PS through two games)
BSR: 5
Not counting his last two inning tune up start, Seth Lugo posted seven inning quality starts with two runs or less in four of his last five starts and six of his last 10 regular season outings. He’s a fine pitcher, who has unexpectedly turned into a workhorse, but with a 16.0 K-BB%, his 3.00 ERA is well below non-FIP estimators ranging from 3.72 (xERA) to 3.94 (SIERA). His FIP (3.25) is only a quarter of a run higher because just eight of 26 barrels left the park in a power suppressing Kansas City park. Lugo’s 50 point split is dangerous here, though Statcast does cut that in half. It’s hardly fair to pick apart Lugo’s arsenal via pitch modeling because he throws so many pitches, but the curveball (16.1%, 59 PB grade) is the only one outside a 45 to 53 range. A 4.29 Bot ERA exceeds other estimators with a 97 Stuff+ increasing to a 100 Pitching+ in agreement.
Against the Orioles, Lugo struck out six of 21 batters with one walk, run and home run over 4.1 innings. Statcast tracks nine different pitches thrown with only one more than 14 times (21 fastballs). The 93.3 mph he averaged on those heaters beat his season average by 1.1 mph. It’s either adrenaline or a different measurement because every pitcher seems to be up this post-season. Like Quintana, he excelled at staying out of the middle of the plate and got 13 whiffs, though four of his five hard hit batted balls were in the air.
Opp wRC+: 120 (117 Road, 120 PS)
DEF: 28/19
B30: 3.55
BSR: -7
These pitchers have remarkably similar estimators and nearly the same hard hit rates. I’m very much aligned with a market that makes the Yankees a small favorite here mostly by virtue of offense alone. Despite being the largest favorite in this round, this was the side I had the most trouble picking for the DS RR parlay. Lance Barrett also leans slightly pitcher friendly.
Dodgers @ Padres
No line, no pitchers, no analysis until Wednesday. Will try to post some daily fantasy notes too when there’s more clarity.
Whoever pitches, I don't expect them to have long leashes, especially the side facing elimination.
Let's get to it, even though we still have little information for the Dodgers who are planning on throwing a bullpen game, though that doesn't necessarily mean we won't see some Landon Knack, who was a twice through the order guy with an impressive 17.8 K-BB%. I don't think he'll get two trips through the order if he appears today, but it's not a terrible choice. I won't go too deep into the weeds with an unconfirmed pitcher, but a 3.65 ERA was below all estimators, but closest to a 3.89 SIERA and 3.78 xERA (10.2% Barrels/BBE, 43.9 HardHIt%) with all other estimators exceeding four. A likely reason for this is a 31.1 GB%, though he did generate 12 infield popups. With batters from either side of the plate between a .288 and .318 wOBA and xwOBA, Statcast reverses a 19 point actual reverse wOBA split to give LHBs back a 30 point edge by xwOBA.
Of the four pitches Knack threw, the changeup and curveball he threw around 15% of the time each received PB grades around 35% of the time, while the more frequently used slider (22.3%) and fastball (46.3%) received 52 and 57 grades respectively. His 105 Stuff+ dropped to a 100 Pitching+ with a 4.60 Bot ERA.
No line, no pitchers, no analysis until Wednesday. Will try to post some daily fantasy notes too when there’s more clarity.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8 K%, 114 Home, 126 PS)
DEF: -4/-20
B30: 4.75
BSR: 4
You don’t see it too often, but Dylan Cease will make his second appearance of the series on three days rest. Pitchers generally suffer some consequences from this and I’m a bit concerned, but when the other option is Martin Perez…
He did throw just 82 pitches in game one, just two of which weren’t sliders or fastballs, striking out five of 18 Dodgers, but also allowing five runs with a home run and two walks through 3.1 innings. His fastball velocity was up half a mph with only five starts this season averaging 97.4 mph or higher. Batters swung and missed 15 times with his six hard batted balls split evenly between grounders, liners, and fly balls.
Cease has as much upside as any pitcher in the league (29.4 K%, 121 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+), though does lack something in consistency (8.5 BB% & Barrels/BBE), which may be why the Padres opted not to utilize him in a three game series. He did have that ridiculous stretch, allowing six hits to 98 batters faced with a 28.6 K-BB%, but since that stupid game in Pittsburgh, where they started the game with heavy rain in the forecast, forcing Cease out after just four batters, he posted an 11.9 K-BB% over his last nine starts, gernerating three quality starts and striking out more than five just twice. His season as a whole presents us a 3.47 ERA that’s within 0.15 runs of all non-FIP estimators. He does have a 39 point wOBA and 24 point xwOBA normal split, but with all batters below .300. The fastball (43.5%, 57 PB grade) and more so the slider (42.9%, 61 PB grade) are strong pitches, resulting in a 3.35 Bot ERA to go along with 121 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road, 72 PS)
DEF: 2/-10
B30: 3.56
BSR: 2
Assuming a standard game, I’d be in agreement on the F5 line and total with a slight, but unactionabl lean towards the Padres at their current price. However, I’m certainly not going to act on these numbers with Cease on three days rest and uncertainty in the Dodger pitching plans. Still rooting for the Padres to bring home the last leg of the DS RR at a dog price.
Daily Fantasy Notes
Our last four game daily fantasy slates of the season features on park (Kansas City) far ahead of the others in terms of run environment. It’s easily the most positive one of the slate and also the only one that sees temperatures outside of the mid-60s, as we should see mid-70s in Kansas City. Some of that cooler weather may be slightly neutralized by double digit winds blowing out in Detroit (left) and New York (right).
As a result, the Yankees and Royals reach exactly four implied runs with the Padres (4.23) the only team exceeding that team total, but nobody below 3.5.
Pitching
Montero and Knack are easily punted, expecting a much smaller workload for the former and not even knowing if the latter is going to pitch in an awful spot. Cease would normally be my top pitcher here, but I don’t know how much to ding him for the three day thing. Cobb is in the highest upside spot, but with only three starts of data. Lugo and Schmidt look decent, despite the unfriendly park because it does suppress power. However, these are not high upside strikeout spots either. Who’s left? The two lefties in New York, both facing offenses with a 118 wRC+ v LHP.
This leads me to Dylan Cease on FanDuel because at $9.3K, he’s only the third most expensive pitcher. Lugo and then Schmidt would be my second and third overall by very slim margins. Cobb is really the only other pitcher I can even conceive of trusting today and I would consider in him in an SP2 spot on DK.
Offense
Luckily, we already have five lineups posted and there are some minor, bottom of the lineup surprises, which could turn into value plays/punts. Going mostly position by position…
Austin Wells (116 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP, 129 wRC+ Post-season) is my favorite catcher on the board and I’m even using him in the C/1B spot on FD at reasonable cost.
On DraftKings, the cheap J.D. Martinez (139, .203, 119) is my favorite value for $3.3K.
Michael Massey (102, .188, 171), Mark Vientos (146, .246, 222) and Trea Turner (146, .224, 97) round out my infield.
Not using Cobb, a pair of Padres (one value, one stud) and left-handed Tigers round out my OF & Utility spot (FD). David Peralta (116, .157, .264) is my punt value play, paired with Tatis (146, .253, 414). The more obvious Detroit plays are Carpenter (176, .326, 108) and Greene (149, .216, 32).
Soto, Ohtani, Judge and Witt are the top bats I’m avoiding for cost reasons, though only Soto has done much in the post-season so far. Ohtani hit that home run, but nothing else. Jackson Merrill (147, .235, 208) is another interesting bat, as is Bryce Harper (151, .219, 249), though you may only be paying for one or two non-walk PAs. Lindor (142, .282, 100) is another highly performing shortstop you could use instead of Turner, who I have rated just slightly higher at a similar price.
A last note that I am concered about Cleveland bats, who could be facing a southpaw as early as their second time through the order.
The Yankees, Guardians and Mets are all in tough base stealing spots (pitcher & catcher). The Dodgers, Tigers and Phillies are in the best base stealing spots.
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