Both NLDS are tied up at one, meaning we will have another four game slate on Wednesday, but savor it because it will be the last time we have more than two baseball games this year.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily reflect post-season bullpens and I'm hoping Fangraphs will allow me to pull post-season data by the end of the week)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Phillies @ Mets
Over his last six starts, Aron Nola allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 33 innings. However, he also posted a 25.2 K-BB% over that span (17.9% season) with all seven of his barrels (7.7%) leaving the park, along with a .369 BABIP. That 17.9 K-BB% is the second lowest of his career after his rookie season. In fact, he’s only been below 19% one other time. Without any significant change to an average contact profile, it might be a surprise that he posted a 3.57 ERA below his 3.70 career mark (both regular season and post season), but that’s what we have estimators for (3.68 SIERA, 3.75 xERA). But let’s say we give him a boost because of how he ended the season and call that 3.57 ERA what it is. Nola did have a 30 point xwOBA split, but just three points with batters from either side of the plate within two points of .310 with actual wOBA, which means it’s a close call as to whether the Mets deploy Martinez or Winker here. Taylor has been roaming center against RHPs recently because he’s hit them better than LHPs for some reason. With 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks, Nola deploys five pitches, three more than 10% of the time with none of them between a 50 and 60 PitchingBot grade. The sinker (20.4%, 62) and curveball (32.9%, 68) both exceed 60 though. Those were both pitches the Mets were middle of the league, but with a slightly negative run value against post-trade deadline. The Mets were one of those teams to trouble him over that six start stretch to end the season, despite striking out seven times in 21 PAs. They homered twice against Nola in that game in Philadelphia without a single barrel.
Opp wRC+: 105 (114 Home)
DEF: 7/6
B30: 3.92
BSR: -6
Sean Manaea threw a final start stinker against Milwaukee. Yet, he still posted a 22.3 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (16.4% on the season), which coincides with an arm angle change to emulate Chris Sale. His fastball PB grade increased more than five points since that point and his slider/sweeper grade increased over 10 points. His Bot ERA is half a run less than his full season total over this 12 start stretch with his Stuff+ going from below 90 to 96 with a 98 Pitching+. All season long estimators exceeded his 3.47 ERA, but only a 4.04 xFIP by more than half a run. Manaea had a reverse split this season with LHBs about 60 points higher by actual results, but less than 15 points by xwOBA. He’ll be putting the Phillies in their better split and it’ll be interesting to see what the Phillies do beyond Schwarber and Harper with their LHBs.
He rebounded in his first post-season start, striking out just four of 21 Brewers, but without a walk over five innings, allowing two runs, the first a leadoff home run to Jackson Chourio. Fifty-eight of his 86 pitches were sinkers with 23 of the remaining 28 being sweepers. Manaea was sitting 93.9 mph on those sinkers, as opposed to 92.3 mph on the season and 92.0 mph in each of his final three regular season starts. He was also elevating the majority of those sinkers, which might explain the 19 called strikes, but just five swinging ones, though just two of nine hard hit batted balls (eight sinkers, one sweeper) not on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: 7/-5
B30: 3.06
BSR: 1
I can’t find the value in this game, being right in line with the market around pick’em in this game. It’s a toss-up. But I’m still pretty happy with the Mets being part of the Round Robin parlay at a nice price after splitting two in Philadelphia. The gut tells me Mets, even if the numbers do not. I would be remiss not mentioning that Doug Eddings is one of the most pitcher friendly umpires in the league, which is worth about a quarter of a run.
Dodgers @ Padres
While Walker Buehler has shown flashes of competence late in the season, those were mostly against poor offenses (Rockies, Angels), but then failed to strike out more batters than he walked against the Braves and Padres in two of his last three starts. Buehler’s 2024 season was nothing short of disastrous. That his 13.1 K-BB% over his last six starts was an improvement on his season rate (10.5%) should be the first clue, even with a favorable contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 36 HardHit%). It’s somewhat unfortunate that he allowed 16 home runs on 17 barrels, which nearly matches his 5.54 FIP to a 5.38 ERA with all other estimators being more than half a run, but less than a full run lower. If we’re calling that a positive, we can probably also include that a .380 wOBA against LHBs and .360 against RHBs drops to a .334 and .336 xwOBA respectively. Perhaps the most encouraging vibes come from Buehler’s pitch modeling with PB grades ranging from 46 to 59, resulting in a 3.95 Bot ERA, along with a 93 Stuff+ that works up to a 100 Pitching+. The cutter (20.8%, 2.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) could be key here, as the Padres were the seventh worst offense against such pitches post-deadline (-0.68 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8%, 114)
DEF: -4/-10
B30: 3.91
BSR: 4
Michael King began an 18 start stretch in May where we posted a 23.3 K-BB% with just 3.5% Barrels/BBE and a 25 HardHit%. King was a bit unfortunate that 17 of his 28 barrels left the park this season, but his 3.33 FIP is still his only estimator within half a run of his 2.95 ERA with others ranging from a 3.50 xFIP to a 3.68 dERA. I’ll take slightly the under on those, considering how he dominated over the last four and a half months of the season. Batters from the left side had a .291 wOBA, but .309 xwOBA against King, but he held RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwoBA. Again, I’ll take the under on those full season numbers He doesn’t have elite pitch modeling, but all PB grades between 52 and 56 (3.83 Bot ERA) is a healthy profile with a 95 Stuff+ working up to a 100 Pitching+.
King dominated a weary Atlanta lineup a week ago today, striking out 12 of 26 without a walk or run. Statcast states that he sat 95.1 mph on his sinker in this game, which would be nearly a mile and a half per hour above his season average (3.7) with his sinker (94.3) also 1.2 mph above his season average. Of his 89 pitches, 15 were swung and missed at, mostly sweepers, with another 20 called strikes. He allowed just three hard hit batted balls.
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road)
DEF: 2/-10
B30: 4.01
BSR: 3
Stating once again that I don’t believe these particular bullpen numbers to be post-season relevant at all, I also have to repeat that I’m nearly perfectly aligned with the market here and even happier to have the dog Padres in the series Round Robin going into this game.
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