Hell of a post-season so far. The wild NLDS Game Two has just concluded and I feel partially responsible for the Mets blowing 3-0 and 4-3 leads. I've had a lead in just about every tracked post-season so far, but it hasn't been a great start. Leans, which aren't recorded on Action Network, have done a lot better. Back at it with two ALDS games on Monday with both the road teams coming back around with their Aces down 1-0. Four LHPs!!
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily reflect post-season bullpens and I'm hoping Fangraphs will allow me to pull post-season data by the end of the week)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Tigers @ Guardians
Tarik Skubal became Detroit’s third pitching Triple Crown winner, but that’s something that includes Wins, which we would know nothing about. Let’s just say that all estimators exceed his 2.39 ERA, but none by more than half a run with a 25.7 K-BB% and 34 HardHit%. Batters from neither side of the plate exceeded a .265 wOBA or xwOBA against Skubal this year with LHBs below .230, while PitchingBot (PB) grades start at 52 with the fastball (60) and changeup (66) reaching elite territory, helping to register a 3.25 Bot ERA, alongside 103 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
In his first post-season start in Houston, Skubal struck out six of 23 batters with a single walk, four hits and no runs. He averaged 97.4 mph on his heater (96.8 season). Getting 13 whiffs with only four hard hit batted balls against Houston is no joke. Skubal gets a similarly tough matchup here with Cleveland in their much better split, despite the preponderance of LHBs normally in their lineup.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20.7 K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 19/24
B30: 3.49
BSR: 1
Matthew Boyd signed with the Guardians after Tommy John surgery with no expectations and here he is starting their second post-season game. Part of that is because Cleveland, much like Detroit, don’t have many trustable starters. Part of it is because he pitched well (19.9 K-BB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE, 37.1 HardHit% over eight starts), though he did walk six of his last 35 batters. His 2.72 ERA were still below respectable 3.10 xERA to a 4.02 dERA, but all contact neutral ones above three and a half. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .256 and .284 wOBA and xwOBA in the small sample with RHBs 20 to 30 points better. Boyd’s dominant changeup (26.2%, 0 RV/100, 62 PB grade) should play well against the Tigers (-0.87 wCH/C was second worst since the deadline). However, the 75 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ give some pause.
Opp wRC+: 88 (24.6 K%, 8.5 HR/FB, 93 Home)
DEF: 5/26
B30: 3.13
BSR: 7
Quite a bit going on here. Ramon De Jesus is behind the plate. In some places, he’s categorized as hitter friendly. The games I watched him umpire were just bad. We have Skubal putting the Guardians in their better split. We have Boyd putting the Tigers in their worse one, similar to the first game against Framber Valdez. However, the Tigers will still play several LHBs against LHP and with their elite bullpen plus a day off and then another one coming, Boyd will not be asked to do much. Unlike Houston, Cleveland can line up relievers, some of whom are just as good if not better than Skubal in short stints.
Next, about the defensive numbers above. This assumes the Guardians are actually going to start Austin Hedges in a post-season game, which I’m not entirely sure they will. I have this game in Cleveland about dead even, but the dilemma is that the F5 line is much higher, which I’m showing just slightly more value on, so I’m going to elect to split a unit.
Royals @ Yankees
Following a 10 strikeout, but five run appearance against the Astros, Cole Ragans ended his season with four straight quality starts, allowing three runs over 25 innings. Despite a 12.3 K-BB% in the last three of those starts, Ragans was able to post a 20.5% mark on the season, which, along with a 35.4 HardHit%, generated non-FIP estimators all above his 3.14 ERA without reaching three and a half. Ragans exhibited a reverse split this year holding RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA with LHBs a bit above .310. It’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees decide to do with their LHBs beyond Soto and Chisholm here. Ragans threw two pitches more than 12.8% of the time this year and both his changeup (23.7%) and fastball (41.8%) received 61 PB grades. The Yankees were a top seven offense post-trade deadline against both of those pitches though.
Like Skubal, Ragans was dominant in his first post-season start against a tough offense. He struck out eight of 22 Orioles without a walk and just four hits, only leaving the game due to cramping after 80 pitches, half of which were fastballs. He generated 15 whiffs and just three hard hit batted balls.
Opp wRC+: 107 (116)
DEF: 28/20
B30: 2.98
BSR: -7
If you ask a casual fan or television analyst, they will probably tell you that Carlos Rodon had a great second half because he had a 2.91 ERA, compared to 4.63 in the first half. That’s not exactly it though.
First 16 starts: 15.8 K-BB%, 10.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.4 HardHit%, 3.86 ERA
Next 13 starts: 24.4 K-BB%, 10% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%, but 4.52 ERA.
Last three starts: 10.4 K-BB%, 17.4% Barrels/BBE, but 32.6 HardHit% and 2.16 ERA
It was just odd, but the only prevailing theme were the barrels. On the season, his 3.96 ERA was within half a run of all estimators, but with only a 3.78 SIERA below four. If we get the July and August version of Rodon, the Royals may be in trouble because there will be less contact, which means less hard contact. Another problem is that RHBs had a .323 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against him this year. I’m not exactly sure what the Royals will do lineup wise because they have a number of options against LHP, but only one really scares anyone. Maybe two. Pitch modeling absolutely loved Rodon this season (122 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), while the fastball (49.4%, 0.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) and slider (26%, -0.5 RV/100, 56 PB grade) coincide with pitches the Royals have had the most trouble with since the break (-0.19 wFA/C, -0.83 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 84 (19.8 K%, 6.2 BB%, 7.7 HR/FB, 92 Road)
DEF: 6/18
B30: 3.24
BSR: -2
I’m certainly not buying that the bullpens are as good as the numbers above, but we have one absolute stud pitcher, one who has flashed as one at times this season and the Royals in their absolute worst splits (on the road against LHP). In addition, two strong defenses and below average base running teams (depending on who the Royals actually play). Also, Ryan Blackney is a slightly pitcher friendly umpire. For these reasons, I’m going under 7.5 (-106), though I’m in line with the market otherwise.
That's all for now. Wins by the Guardians and Yankees would be two steps closer to series Round Robin suggestions, though not tracked plays. I'll be back on Monday if there's anything worth noting.
Update #1
No lineups yet, but temps in the low 60s with a 10 mph wind in from around the left field pole in Cleveland is very pitcher friendly in a pitcher friendly park. Mid-60s with the wind blowing out 10 mph to right in the Bronx. Keep trying to make a daily fantasy lineup, but keep ending up on Rodon/Royals stack on DK.
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