It's going to be a bit more concise today, first of all because there are only two games, but also because I know it's Sunday and we all have fantasy football teams to build.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Mets @ Phillies
Over Luis Severino’s first 21 starts, he generated a 3.91 ERA, but 10.0 K-BB% with estimators above four, averaging 96 mph and leaning on his sinker 26.7% of the time. In his last 10 starts (starting in August through the end of the season), he generated a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.86 ERA and better estimators, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball while leaning more on that pitch (37.6%) and his slider/sweeper (27.4%). All three of those pitches exceeded a 55 PitchingBot grade over this 10 start span though, while he generated a 113 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+. Severino did allow 10 runs and four home runs over his last 16.1 innings (Phillies 2x, Braves), but with all of his barrels leaving the park, a 35.6 K-BB% and 19.7 K-BB%. On the season, all estimators landed within one-third of a run of his 3.91 ERA, but I believe he ended the season on a better note than perceived. He did have more than a 60 point split by both wOBA and xwOBA, which isn’t really a problem in quantity against Philadelphia, as much as it quality.
Most of the above paragraphs was posted Tuesday ahead of Severino’s start in Milwaukee, where he faced 28 batters over six innings in 105 pitches. He only struck out three, but saved the bullpen and gave the Mets a chance to win, which they did, by suppressing hard contact. Only three batted balls were hard hit and two of them were on the ground. Severino went fastball heavy in that start with 39 and it might work to his benefit again because while the Phillies were a perfectly average offense against fastballs post-deadline (0.0 wFA/C), they are better against the other pitches Severino throws.
Opp wRC+: 104 (114)
DEF: 7/1
B30: 3.06
BSR: 2
Cristopher Sanchez posted a 19.2 K-BB% at home versus 8.2% on the road with over 100 points of wOBA split if you’re wondering why he’s starting here instead of Nola. I can’t imagine why this would be, as it’s a tough park, but his ground ball rate was 60.2% at home versus 53.9% on the road. Sanchez had seven quality starts with at least seven innings and a total of eight runs. Six of those were at home. As a matter of fact, only three of his 17 QS overall were on the road. We’ve agreed that he’s a stud at home with a great K-BB, along with elite contact management (21.6 HardHit% via FG, not Statcast though). The problem here is that RHBs had a .295 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year with LHBs around 30 to 40 points lower, but he’ll only be facing one LHB in Nimmo. He also puts the Mets in their superior split, as we can see below. Sanchez is basically a sinker (47.3%< 58 PB grade), changeup (35.7%, 62 PB grade) monster. Since the deadline, the Mets have struggled against the former (-0.51 wSI/C is still top half of the league though), but smashed the latter (1.26 wCH/C was third best, right behind the Phillies).
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: 7/7
B30: 3.92
BSR: -4
First off, it’s important to state that the Mets punished the Philadelphia bullpen, while the Mets were able to win G1 without using Diaz. That’s a big deal because he could go two innings with an off day on Monday. I’m giving the Phillies a healthy edge with Sanchez with smaller edges defensively and on the bases, but the Mets have edges offensively and in the bullpen here. I’m in line with the Phillies being a healthy favorite, like the market bears, for the first half of the game, but I’m a bit lower once the bullpens get involved. The Mets don’t even get out of bed until the eighth inning. I should also mention that the hitter friendly Edwin Moscoso is scheduled to be calling balls and strikes. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Padres @ Dodgers
After missing all of June, July and August, Yu Darvish returned to pitch 25.1 September innings with a 17.6 K-BB% (16.6% prior to IL) and improved 104 Stuff+ (99 prior to IL). On the season, his 3.31 ERA was a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.64 xERA to 4.09 FIP, while stranding 79.2% of his runners with a .245 BABIP, but 12 of 17 barrels (7.5%) turning into home runs. Batters from either side of the plate sat between a .277 and .302 wOBA and xwOBA with a 16 point reverese actual split turning into a seven point standard one by Statcast. No longer a top of the rotation arm at this point in his career, he’s still a quality pitcher, who can get the Padres to their real strength, the bullpen, competitively .
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home)
DEF: 2/-6
B30: 4.01
BSR: 3
Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers after 18 starts of a 27.5 K-BB%. He was nearly traded to the Yankees, who balked at the medicals and maybe they were right because while Flaherty still posted a 17.9 K-BB% with the Dodgers that dips to 13.6% over his last seven starts, while his velocity also dropped half a mile per hour with the Dodgers. Flaherty’s 95 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ dropped to 92 and 98 post-trade then 90 and 94 over the last seven. The one thing that didn’t change was his quality of contact (7.7% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%), but Flaherty was clearly not the same pitcher who began the season at the end of it. Flaherty’s significant reverse split (RHBs .315 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) neither helps nor hurts him here.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8 K%, 108 Road)
DEF: -4/-10
B30: 3.91
BSR: 2
We do not yet have a line posted for this game, but with the bullpen edge much more in favor of San Diego than it suggests above and the pitching matchup much closer than it would have been in May, I only make the Dodgers a small favorite and even that may be generous.
Update #1
It appears both parks have temperatures around 75 degrees with an eight mph wind out to right-center. In other words, slightly hitter friendly weather, in addition to the hitter friendly umpire in Philadelphia. Gain of 1.98% on the Mets, which isn't small for a post-season number. Each lineup has altered one spot since Saturday. Sosa in for Bohm and Bader in for Taylor.
Update #2
Padres have swapped in Peralta for Solano against Flaherty's reverse split. No, it doesn't make sense. I still like over a total of 8 here, for reasons written above.
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