Saturday may be our last four (or even three game) if the either or both of the NL series are swept. All starting pitchers have been confirmed as of Friday afternoon and we've been thrown a couple of curveballs. One expected, one completely out of the blue. Unlike the Wild Card round, we are completely at the mercy of the weather in every one of the eight Divisional Round environments. Let's discuss below.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Tigers @ Guardians
Tyler Holton will open, followed by ?? I feel like we’ve been here before. Let’s use Reese Olson again because he did not pitch in the Wild Card round, though we can say the same of Keider Montero.
Again, I’m basing my game projection on the premises of Reese Olson throwing three to four innings at some point and maybe even a fifth if things go well and to plan. I wouldn’t expect much of a change even if it were Montero. Holton has gone as many as three innings four times though (twice in May and August). Olson is a ground baller (50.6%), who followed up a stretch of 28 strikeouts over 92 batters by ending the season striking out just 12 of his last 70. A reasonable 14.0 K-BB% on the season, while the ground balls helped him generate just 5.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a 43.7 HardHit%. With LHBs above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .260, this is a problematic split against the Guardians. Despite not a single estimator exceeding four and, therefore, within half a run of his 3.53 ERA, Olson doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade exceeding 50, resulting in a 5.00 Bot ERA to compliment 91 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks. The fastball (23.4%, -0.4 RV/100) could be the largest problem here (Guardians 0.56 wFA/C is the third best mark since the trade deadline).
Opp wRC+: 95 (20 K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 19/25
B30: 3.49
BSR: 3
Tanner Bibee sees his first post-season action coming off a 20.1 K-BB% in his second major league season. This, along with 7.0% Barrels/BBE and a 36.9 HardHit% produces all above, but within half a run of his 3.47 ERA. Estimators are slightly cautious on the 34.6 GB%. Bibee finished the season with 19.2 innings of six run ball over his last three starts, but hasn’t pitched since September 24th. He may be the only Cleveland pitcher afforded any kind of leash, though his split (LHBs .336 wOBA, .318 xwOBA – RHBs .252, .289) is also a bit of a concern against this Detroit offense. What’s not a concern are Bibee’s 60 grade changeup (18%, 0.9 RV/100) as the Tigers were the second worst offense since the deadline against that pitch (-0.87 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.2 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: 5/27
B30: 3.13
BSR: 8
Offensively, defensively and base running wise, these teams might be a lot closer than you think. I say not to put too much value on these bullpen numbers, but in this case, they may be accurate representations. What the Tigers have so effectively done with their bullpen in September and against the Astros, the Guardians are probably better because what Detroit does with good arms, Cleveland may do with elite ones. I’m very much in line with the market in game one, but lean Cleveland (-120 to -130) for the series for my Round Robin Parlay for the Divisional Round. Does the prospect of facing Skbual twice concern me? Sure, but he also has to beat them twice along with winning another game to come out ahead in this series. I’m not even sure the Tigers can get it to Skubal a second time in Game Five.
Mets @ Phillies
In a shocker of a move, Carlos Mendoza announced Kodai Senga as his game one starter on Friday afternoon. Senga has faced 20 batters all season. One start. He faced four batters in a 9/21 rehab start and then shut it down again. Initially, it was a debate between David Peterson and Tylor Megill and I still think we may see quite a bit of one or the other (my guess would be Megill after a LHP deals with Schwarber and Harper at some point, to keep the Phillies in their inferior split), but what can Senga possibly give them? At best, he’s an extended opener. Three innings? Maybe 40 to 50 pitches? We’ll have to go to projections here and at least they all concur with something around three and three quarters runs per nine. Last year, Senga exhibited a bit of a reverse split and perhaps that’s part of the thinking in having him start against the Philadelphia LHBs at the top of the order. Batters from that side had just a .263 wOBA against Senga with six of his 17 home runs. In the one game he did pitch this year, Senga earned a 110 Stuff+ grade. There’s nothing wrong with his arm.
Opp wRC+: 104 (114 Home)
DEF: 7/-5
B30: 3.06
BSR: 1
Zach Wheeler is the likely Cy Young runner up and one hell of a post-season pitcher too with a 24.4 K-BB% and 8.2 HR/FB over 63.1 innings, many in the power friendly confines of Philadelphia. He posted a similarly impressive 21.9 K-BB% with a 33.7 HardHit% this year, that somehow resulted in a career high 8.3% Barrels/BBE with 20 of those 42 barrels leaving the park. Fifteen of those against LHBs, but just nine at home. Six at home to LHBs. Let’s talk about those issues against LHBs (.311 wOBA, .313 xwOBA). The Mets have only three of them if they wish to start Winker, something they refused to do a game two loss in Milwaukee, facing another pitcher with a massive split. Wheeler’s split is massive not because he’s been awful against LHBs however, but because he’s dominated RHBs (.194 wOBA, .209 xwOBA). His 2.81 xERA was a quarter run above a 2.57 ERA, but was the only one of his estimators not more than half a run worse than actual results, running on as high as a 3.32 SIERA. Wheeler has enough of a history of stifling contact, that I’m willing to buy into that xERA and only expect slight regression from the .246 BABIP (.278 last four seasons) and 80.1 LOB% (75.8 last four seasons). Wheeler throws just three pitches more than 10% of the time and one pitch (sinker) more than 20% of the time. All three range between elite 64 to 67 PitchingBot grades (2.96 Bot ERA, 106 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+), though the slider/sweeper (12.5%, 1 RV/100) is the one the Mets really struggled against post-deadline (-0.65 wSL/C was sixth worst).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 7/-8
B30: 3.92
BSR: -6
I am once again in line with this game’s moneyline and total, but did take the Mets in my Round Robin Parlay for the Divisional Series. Part of it is feel. Teams with longer layoffs do tend to struggle in this format, while the Mets are off a high in Milwaukee believing they can conquer the world. Part of it is because beyond Wheeler and Sanchez, I’m not sure the Phillies have much of an advantage and it’s a nice price (+150 to +160). Nola is good, but can be beaten, while Suarez has stunk in the second half. The dirty little secret is that the Philadelphia offense is a tad over-rated. They had just a 105 wRC+ against RHP this year and just a 105 wRC+ overall in the second half. That’s not bad, but the latter was just eighth best among playoff teams this year. These teams are at least equal defensively, they both have defensive weaknesses, but capable defensive replacements and I think the bullpens are pretty even here.
Royals @ Yankees
On the surface, Michael Wacha allowed even as many as three earned runs just four times over his last 22 starts. Underneath, his 15.2 K-BB% was just a bit above his season rate of 14.6% with 8.4% Barrels/BBE, but just a 30.9 HardHit%. Just 13 of his 31 barrels over that span left the yard, helping him to an 81.5 LOB%. Yankee Stadium is actually a slightly more pitcher friendly environment in terms of run prevention, but not as forgiving on those deep fly balls. Anyhow, this explains the diffence between Wacha’s 3.35 ERA this season, his 3.65 FIP and remaining estimators ranging from 4.05 (xERA) and 4.17 (SIERA). That’s still league average work, which is fine, but Wacha did it with one elite pitch (changeup 32.2%, 2 RV/100, 80 PB grade). By PitchingBot grades, it was the best pitch in the game. You can’t go any higher than 80 on a 20-80 scale. Wacha also had a good fastball (23.8%, 0.2 RV/100, 55 PB grade), but no other pitch reaching a 50 PB grade. The problem with all of this is that the Yankees hit both fastballs and changeups (and everything other than cutters) well since the trade deadline. As far as splits go with the Yankees appearing to lean more left-handed at this point, LHBs had a .301 wOBA and .302 xwOBA, while RHBs had a .298 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA. The reverse split would make sense in terms of the changeup.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Home)
DEF: 28/19
B30: 2.98
BSR: -7
Gerrit Cole’s 17.9 K-BB% is not just his lowest mark since Pittsburgh, but the first time he’s been below 21% (last year) and second time he’s been below 25% since leaving the steel city. Once certainly wonders if there’s been a decline in pitch quality, but Cole did reach a 25 K-BB% or better in 10 of his 17 starts. Four of the seven times he failed to do so were against either playoff offenses (Mets 2x, Orioles, Guardians) or other tough offenses (Red Sox, Blue Jays). None the less, his Bot ERA (3.76) was a quarter run above last year, which was a half run above the year before, while his Stuff+ has dropped from 139 to 121 to 111 over the last three seasons. Cole is still a quality pitcher and a top end of the rotation one, but estimators all exceeding his 3.41 ERA without reaching five do say something.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: 6/12
B30: 3.24
BSR: 5
Gerrit Cole’s 17.9 K-BB% is not just his lowest mark since Pittsburgh, but the first time he’s been below 21% (last year) and second time he’s been below 25% since leaving the steel city. Once certainly wonders if there’s been a decline in pitch quality, but Cole did reach a 25 K-BB% or better in 10 of his 17 starts. Four of the seven times he failed to do so were against either playoff offenses (Mets 2x, Orioles, Guardians) or other tough offenses (Red Sox, Blue Jays). None the less, his Bot ERA (3.76) was a quarter run above last year, which was a half run above the year before, while his Stuff+ has dropped from 139 to 121 to 111 over the last three seasons. Cole is still a quality pitcher and a top end of the rotation one, but estimators all exceeding his 3.41 ERA without reaching five do say something.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: 6/12
B30: 3.24
BSR: 5
The Royals are a better defensive team with better base running, though the Yankees are also above average in the former area, at least in the infield. The Yankees are deeper and better offensively and in the rotation. Bullpens are what’s stumping me. Erceg may be the top pitcher coming out of either pen, but the inability to pitch either Cortes or another quality starter out of the pen is a bit concerning, while the Royals are turning some underperforming prospects into relief weapons. My dilemma is that I believe Cole to be a bit over-valued (Royals +172), which is easy enough, but I’m more inclined to include the Yankees (-200) in my series Round Robin. It’s certainly possible to lose the first game of a five game series and still prevail, but I’m essentially going against myself. However, the other option would be to omit the series because I can’t wait for a potential better price after the first game. Whatever happened to open parlays? Anyway, the first Divisional Round series play is fired (Rocky Jade on Action Network). Also should mention that as far as Game One umpires go, Adam Hamari is slightly pitcher friendly and the only home plate umpire on Saturday who veers much from neutral.
Padres @ Dodgers
Dylan Cease has as much upside as any pitcher in the league (29.4 K%, 121 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+), though does lack something in consistency (8.5 BB% & Barrels/BBE, which may be why the Padres opted not to utilize him in a three game series. He did have that ridiculous stretch, allowing six hits to 98 batters faced with a 28.6 K-BB%, but since that stupid game in Pittsburgh, where they started the game with heavy rain in the forecast, forcing Cease out after just four batters, he posted an 11.9 K-BB% over his last nine starts, posting three quality starts and striking out more than five just twice. His season as a whole presents us a 3.47 ERA that’s within 0.15 runs of all non-FIP estimators. He does have a 39 point wOBA and 24 point xwOBA normal split, but with all batters below .300 and we already mentioned the Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades. I certainly understand the concern with the volatility though, but perhaps it’s a blessing that he may get two cracks at the Dodgers here.
Opp wRC+: 117 (12 K-BB%, 123 Home)
DEF: 2/-6
B30: 4.01
BSR: 3
Yama Yoshi put up dominant numbers this season with a 22.6 K-BB%, though the 8.1% Barrels/BBE and 41.3 HardHit% were a bit more marginal. All estimators were within half a run of his 3.00 ERA though and went in both directions. He shut down LHBs (.237 wOBA, .283 xwOBA), while RHBs had marginal success against him (.317 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). Yamanoto had just a 100 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+ to bring him in line with Cease. He used three pitches 88% of the time with a 55 grade fastball (40.4%) and curveball (23.1%) and splitter (24.2%) at 64 and 58 respectively. The breaking ball is the one the Padres had an issue with post-deadline (-0.35 wCU/C was bottom third of the league). The issues we have here is that the Padres put the ball in play. More contact generally means more hard contact with Yamamoto and he did not exceed 18 batters faced or 80 batters in any of his four starts after returning from the IL or since June 7th. Although both were early in the season (before tax day), the Padres did rough him up for eight runs over six innings with four barrels and 11 of 17 batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8 K%, 108 Road)
DEF: -4/-10
B30: 3.91
BSR: 2
Once again, I’m in line with the market for this game (small lean on the over), which makes the Dodgers small favorites. I do think there are problems once you get to the bullpen with Padres much better in that area than the Dodgers, despite what the September numbers say. They also can compete on an offensive basis, while neither team is going to win games defensively, for the most part. There again too, I think the Padres may have more upside though. The unfortunate news on Joe Musgrove (UCL) does hurt, but the Padres at three deep (Cease, Darvish, King) are still deeper than the Dodger rotation (Yamamoto, Flaherty, ???). This is why, forced to pick a side for the divisional series RR, I’m going with the Padres (+115 to +120).
Back with daily fantasy notes either later tonight or in the morning.
Daily Fantasy Notes
Weather will have to wait until the morning, but as mentioned we have umpire information already with only the one in New York veering much from neutral, a bit on the pitcher friendly side. Philadelphia is the top run environment on the board (102 PRF Statcast rolling 3 yr) with Cleveland the most negative (94). The Yankees and Dodgers are perfectly neutral (100). Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies are very power friendly parks for LHBs with the latter two great for RHBs too. Philadelphia is above average too, while Cleveland really suppresses RH power. Of course, these are all weather neutral park factors.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler is the top pitcher on the board and I don’t have to tell you why. Tanner Bibee is my number two and perhaps a slightly better value in the most favorable park facing the most strikeout prone offense. This is a decision and I may end up siding with the latter on both sites.
Of the other four options available (we can’t use Detroit or NYM pitchers), I think I might lean Wacha in an SP2 role ($7.7K) if I couldn’t fit Wheeler/Bibee on DK. I know Cole is only $600 more, but there was not much of a gap in their K-BB this year and the Royals make more contact. There are also some ownership considerations. It’s close. Cease is volatile and could go either way and even if Yamamoto shines in a really tough spot (maybe toughest on the board DFS wise), he’s only going through the lineup twice.
Batters
Playing Bibee and, unfortunately, a pair of cheap LH Tigers against him in Carpenter (176 wRC+, .326 ISO v RHP, 152 wRC+ September) and Green (149, .216, .137) allows me to do a lot of other things in my FanDuel lineup. I’m okay with this because these easily the two biggest threats. Despite the left-handed opener, I’m willing to chance that Kwan and Manzardo (147 wRC+ September) get enough opportunities against RHP to make them worthwhile at reasonable cost too. From there, I went cheap again with Arraez (120, .085, 124) at second base before paying up for Turner (114, .153, 124) and Muncy (145, .254, 138) with enough left over for Judge (213, .365, 183).
The DraftKings lineup is much harder to fill out (keeping Wheeler & Bibee). Going position by position, I wanted Realmuto (104, .168, 130), but was fine settling for Wells (116, .198, 22) for $500 less, though yikes at that last number. Manzardo for less than $3K at 1B seems like a must again (and I still have to punt one more position). I like Massey (102, .198, 98) in the leadoff spot for less than $4K at 2B with Arraez ineligible, but Torres is close (94, .098, 146) at a really ugly position. I initially doubled down on Turner at short, but found I was able to pay up for Witt in the end (177, .276, 126) with Muncy at 3B because I punted an OF spot with Brennan (109, .129, 141), which I’ll probably end up canceling when he’s not in the lineup. The other two OF spots went to Carpenter and Merrill (147, .235, 156) for a bit more than $4K.
As far as running goes, Wheeler/Realmuto are very tough to run on as are Wacha/Perez. Cease and Higashioka, Cole/Wells are the best running spots.
Not easy. A lot of good/great pitching. If we reach another three or four game slate later in this round, it might be more interesting offensively.
Update #1
Temps between 70 and 75 with a wind between five and 10 mph in all four spots. It just happens to be blowing in for the first two games, out for the last and across the field in the Bronx.
No Brenann, which I suspected might be the case, but no Manzardo really crushes lineups, especially DK. I lost Judge, but gained Witt on FD. I lost Wheeler and Witt on DK in favor of Wacha and Lindor. Also had to place Winker in the OF...until Mendoza starts Martinez over him.
Update #2
It's Cabrerea and Verdugo at the bottom of the Yankee lineup. No Dominguez. Small 0.83% gain on KC.
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