Assuming the Padres hold their three run lead on Wednesday night, there have been 12 Wild Card since the extra wild card was introduced. Only two of them have not been a sweep and the Mets have taken part in both of them.
They also get a chance to become the first team to win game one and not win the series, which is too easy a burden for the baseball gods to hang on Mets fans. The nail in the coffin was the ESPN sideline jjnxer stating that the Brewers have never had a late inning post-season comeback or something to that effect.
It was some bad luck that cost the only play from Wednesday (ATL/SDP u7), as both pitchers were knocked out via injury before the fourth inning after Fried got some heavy BABIP punishment with two outs in the second.
Onto today's only baseball game.
Bet the Brewers. At any price. Especially if Quintana is going (He is!). The house, the car, the spouse and children. Everything on the Brewers. That is it. That's the article.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (this doesn't work so good in the post-season, will switch over when there are some post-season numbers)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Mets @ Brewers
Jose Quintana had just a 10.0 K-BB% this season. It increased to a more respectable 12% over his last 18 starts and 18.5% over his last four starts, including whiffing nine of the 20 Brewers he faced in his last start, but it’s unlikely you’re teaching this dog many new tricks at his age. Quintana’s 3.75 ERA is mostly the product of a .263 BABIP (.303 career and not below .300 since 2018) and 78.2 LOB% (73.6% career, best since 2016). Quintana’s best estimator was a 4.44 xFIP, though he can still hold a team in check when he’s hitting his spots and the Mets are playing strong up the middle defense behind him. A bit unfortunate that 22 of his 34 barrels (6.7%) left the park. His 37.8 HardHit% this year was nearly two points higher than his career average.
He does put the Brewers in their lesser split again, but expect both pitchers to be pulled at the first real sign of danger. It does concern me that Mendoza has shown a tendency to stick with his guys too long, but he almost certainly understands the magnitude of the moment and will deploy his bullpen aggressively, as will the Brewers.
With batters from either side of the plate between a .308 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA, Quintana had a 16 point standard wOBA split this year, though Statcast shows a 25 point reverse xwOBA split. No pitch in his arsenal reached a 50 Pitching Bot grade, resulting in a 5.19 Bot ERA to coincide with 83 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ marks. The changeup (19.3%, -0.1 RV/100, 41 PB grade) and fastballs (22.5%, -0.2 RV/100, 37 PB grade) were the greatest offenders. He may not have to worry about the latter (Brewers -0.49 wFA/C since the deadline was third worst in baseball), though Milwaukee has been on fastballs in this series. The changeup is another story (MIL 0.92 wCH/C was sixth best since the deadline).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 7/1
B30: 3.06 (but EVERYBODY who didn’t start in this series is available)
BSR: 2
Tobias Myers was “managed” down the stretch, not exceeding four innings in any of his last three outings with less than 60 pitches in his last two, even getting an opener to end the season. That’s okay though, it’s not length anybody is looking for from him. He impressively posted a 16 K-BB% over 25 rookie season starts with some variance and no pattern of being hot or cold, improvement or decline coming down the stretch. He one hit the Mets over four shutout relief innings, striking out five of 14 batters in his last outing of the year. Adding a perfectly average contact profile to that K-BB, Myers posted estimators ranging from a 3.91 FIP to a 4.40 dERA, though all other estimators more than a quarter of a run below the latter. The problem was that his 3.00 ERA was subject to an 81.1 LOB% and 11.5% unearned run rate.
With batters from either side of the plate between a .275 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA, Myers exhibits a straight standard split by actual results or Statcast, though the latter decreases a 45 point real split to an 18 point expected one. Similar to Quintana, the changeup (11.4%, 1.7 RV/100, 31 PB grade) could be a problem here, though it hasn’t been by actual run value. The Mets have been the third best destroyers of changeups (1.26 wCH/C) since the deadline. Unlike Quintana, Myers does have a healthy fastball grade (40.1%, 0.7 RV/100, 58 PB grade), which coincides with the pitch’s results. The problem here is that the Mets were also an upper half of the league offense against fastballs (0.04 wFA/C) since the deadline too. A 4.46 Bot ERA, 92 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ are not great, but are better than his opponent.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 27/31
B30: 3.09
BSR: -4
While the Brewers have a massive defensive edge on paper, the Mets have actually played that part of the game better in this series. I give the Brewers a slight overall edge (starting pitching and offense) while the starters are in there and a larger one once the bullpens hit. Their most substantial edge might be base running.
Let’s at least mention that Vic Carapazza leans pitcher friendly and the park has a 94 RF with the roof closed (Statcast three year rolling), as it has been for the first two games of this series. I project a total around seven, which shows no value with the current line of 7.5 with the under more heavily juiced. I have slight edges, compared to the line on the Brewers full game and F5, but not large enough (with enough confidence) to be actionable. I would normally be on the over for both pitchers’ strikeout props at their current numbers, having both right around 4.5 in a vacuum, with the very heavy under juice, giving us a nice price on the over. Though, this is how it should be with the massive risk for bullpens to get involved early.
Good luck. I’ll be back for Saturday’s Divisional Round.
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