Today’s format will be the same as Tuesday’s. Game and some series notes with daily fantasy notes to follow and then a few later updates. While Atlanta was the team of mystery on Tuesday, we have no idea what Detroit is going to do in these post-Skubal games. The Brewers have yet to decide between Civale and Myers (presumably) either.
Stats are through regular season with a Legend below.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (will try to use post-season numbers once every team gets a few games under them)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Tigers @ Astros
What we know for sure is that Tyler Holton will open for the Tigers. What they do beyond that…? It’s rumored that Reese Olson could follow, but Detroit could do many things. A RHP would make some sense once you got through Alvarez and Tucker. And then maybe Hurter when they came back around.
I’m basing my game projection on the premises of Reese Olson throwing three to four innings at some point and maybe even a fifth if things go well and to plan. Holton has gone as many as three innings four times though (twice in May and August). Olson is a ground baller (50.6%), who followed up a stretch of 28 strikeouts over 92 batters by ending the season striking out just 12 of his last 70. A reasonable 14.0 K-BB% on the season, while the ground balls helped him generate just 5.5% Barrels/BBE, despite a 43.7 HardHit%. With LHBs above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .260, don’t expect to see Olson stick around if he’s in trouble with the big lefties coming up. Despite not a single estimator exceeding four and, therefore, within half a run of his 3.53 ERA, Olson doesn’t have a single PitchingBot grade exceeding 50, resulting in a 5.00 Bot ERA to compliment 91 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.2 K%, 120 Home)
DEF: 19/20
B30: 3.49
BSR: -4
I’m a bit surprised the Astros are rolling out Hunter Brown in Game Two instead of Yusei Kikuchi, but considering they both need to win for the Astros to advance at this point, maybe they just didn’t want Detroit seeing both LHPS back to back. A RHP does put the Tigers in a better split, but Brown has been nothing short of magnificent, posting a 19.4 K-BB% over his last 21 starts with a 49.2 GB%, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 27.8 HardHit%. Include his first nine starts and all estimators are still within a quarter of a run of his 3.49 ERA with RHBs 40 points better than LHBs by wOBA, but Statcast making it a two point xwOBA split. Brown also has more impressive 103 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ scores with a only the cutter (17%, 45 PB grade) outside a 50 to 56 PB range.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24.2 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: 0/3
B30: 3.55
BSR: 6
Assuming Olson for a good chunk of the game, I have almost what I need to side with the Tigers at +146. I don’t feel entirely confident in that assumption, but don’t expect Detroit to put itself in a worse situation than that either.
Royals @ Orioles
Not counting his last two inning tune up start, Seth Lugo posted seven inning quality starts with two runs or less in four of his last five starts and six of his last 10. He’s a fine pitcher, who has unexpectedly turned into a workhorse, but with a 16.0 K-BB%, his 3.00 ERA is well below non-FIP estimators ranging from 3.72 (xERA) to 3.94 (SIERA). His FIP (3.25) is only a quarter of a run higher because just eight of 26 barrels left the park in a power suppressing Kansas City park. This park is even worse for right-handed power, but much easier on left-handed power and that’s where we expect the large majority of Baltimore’s offense to lean. Even more dangerous is Lugo’s 50 point split, though Statcast does cut that in half. It’s hardly fair to pick apart Lugo’s arsenal via pitch modeling because he throws so many pitches, but the curveball (16.1%, 59 PB grade) is the only one outside a 45 to 53 range. A 4.29 Bot ERA exceeds other estimators with a 97 Stuff+ increasing to a 100 Pitching+ in the same area.
Opp wRC+: 111 (115)
DEF: 28/19
B30: 2.98
BSR: 3
What’s fair for one is fair for both, so excluding Zach Eflin’s last disaster of a start against the Yankees where the Orioles had little to gain, he posted a 19.8 K-BB% in his previous eight starts for the Orioles, which exceeds his 16.1% mark with Tampa Bay. Let’s look at the cutter he increased to 32.2% usage after the trade. Taking some tips from Corbin Burnes, it was shaped and located a bit differently, earning a 56 PB grade post-trade. On the season, Eflin, like Burnes, was a bit worse against RHBs, who were around league average against him. Also for the year, Eflin’s 3.59 ERA may be much higher than Lugo’s, but his estimators (3.63 xERA – 3.97 SIERA) are very much the same.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.72
BSR: 5
We already have the pitcher friendly Phil Cuzzi confirmed behind the plate. I give the Orioles a small starting pitching edge and slightly larger offensive one, but that’s about it, even if I don’t believe the bullpens are actually that far apart in this series. The Royals legitimately have a large defensive edge and I agree with the market on this game having the Orioles as a moderate favorite.
Mets @ Brewers
Sean Manaea also threw a final start stinker, this one against Milwaukee and it did mean something at the time. Yet, he still posted a 22.3 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (16.4% on the season), which coincides with an arm angle change to emulate Chris Sale. His fastball PB grade increased more than five points since that point and his slider/sweeper grade increased over 10 points. His Bot ERA is half a run less than his full season total over this 12 start stretch with his Stuff+ going from below 90 to 96 with a 98 Pitching+. All season long estimators exceeded his 3.47 ERA, but only a 4.04 xFIP by more than half a run. Manaea had a reverse split this season with LHBs about 60 points higher by actual results, but less than 15 points by xwOBA. Despite the results in his last start, this is actually a decent matchup against the Brewers, who will be in their worse split.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 7/-5
B30: 3.05
BSR: 2
Frankie Montas was pretty marginal over his first six starts with the Brewers, despite a velocity increase (96.3 mph), posting just a 13.5 K-BB%, before turning some heads with a 30.4 K-BB% over his next three starts, but then getting absolutely thumped by the Diamondbacks before struggling to end the season against the Mets. The overall picture is not very pretty with a 12.5 K-BB%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 43.1 HardHit%. None of his estimators were as bad as a 4.84 ERA, but only a 4.26 xFIP preceded it by more than half a run. His 100 point actual and 80 point Statcast split should help him here though. If the Mets start Winker again, they still only get to three LHBs. Montas’s pitch modeling secured a tight 49 to 52 Pitching Bot range, resulting in a 4.22 Bot ERA that was in line with that xFIP, along with 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 27/31
B30: 3.09
BSR: -6
While the Mets have at least small starting pitching and offensive advantages here, the Brewers have strong edges nearly everything else (remember, we’re taking these bullpen numbers with a large grain of salt). This gets me to a spot where the Brewers are small favorite, which is basically what they are here with both sides being minus a small amount right now. I may have some small interest in the under if the roof were to remain closed.
Braves @ Padres
Back to some semblance of normalcy for the Braves, though Max Fried’s 2024 season was nowhere near normal for him. Ironically, the strikeouts (23.2%) and contact profile (58.8 GB%, 5% Barrels/BBE, 34.6 HardHit%) were on point, but the walks were up (8.0%) and how he got to those numbers was far more erratic than it normally is. To illustrate, Fried had nine quality starts of at least seven innings and struck out at least seven on 10 occasions. He also allowed at least four runs seven times and struck out fewer than five 10 times. Fried’s 94 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ is less encouraging than last season, as the latter is a career low. PitchingBot grades are a more wide ranging, but the curveball (21%, 0.9 RV/100, 65 PB grade) is interesting with the Padres a bottom third of the league offense against curveballs (-0.35 wCU/C) since the trade deadline. Fried should also benefit from getting the Padres in their lesser split and with his reverse split (RHBs .242 wOBA, .292 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 96 (17.2 K%, 114 Home)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 2.93
BSR: 2
It was obviously an injury riddled season for Joe Musgrove, but he did get back on track once he was finally healthy. Skipping his first start back from his last IL stint, where he shook the rust off, Musgrove had a 27.4 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators below three over his last eight starts. It may not be that good, but I believe we’re more likely to see that pitcher than the one who had a full season 3.88 ERA and 4.34 xERA (10.5% Barrels/BBE). Musgrove didn’t improve a marginal contact profile much over this late stretch, but that K-BB is more than double his 12.6% mark prior to that run. Musgrove also has a reverse split, which hurts him in this case. Batters from the right hand side exceeded a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him and the Braves are predominantly right-handed. Musgrove’s Bot ERA improved over a quarter of a run over these last eight starts with a 135 Stuff+ (104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 96 (23.9 K%)
DEF: 2/-6
B30: 4.01
BSR: -12
I do give Fried a small edge, but despite the Padres being in their inferior split, it’s still just as good as the Braves have been against RHP. As like yesterday, I don’t believe the bullpen gap is nearly that large, while the defense may be a wash and the Padres have a large base running edge, which should make them small to moderate favorites at home. I do like this game to go under seven with two strong starters facing slightly below to near average offenses in these splits, both backed by great bullpens. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for further info dumps.
Daily Fantasy Notes
We continue the post-season with another all-day four game slate that includes a pair of protected environments with Houston almost always closed, but Milwaukee frequently open with decent weather, but closed on Tuesday. Fairly neutral weather with temperatures around 70 and winds less than five mph. Houston (102 PRF roof closed) and Baltimore are neutral run environments with Milwaukee slightly below and San Diego a significantly negative run environment.
The Astros (4.27) and Orioles (4.11) reach four run team totals with everyone else between 3.23 (Tigers) and 3.84 (Brewers). As mentioned above, the pitcher friendly Phil Cuzzi is the biggest needle mover behind the plate (Baltimore), though Jordan Baker is very slightly hitter friendly in Houston.
Pitching
The a bit below Tuesday’s standard, Wednesday’s pitchers are still all very good and closely grouped. Like yesterday too, we also only have seven options today without a clue what the Tigers are going to do behind Holton. Today though, we have a clear trailer in Max Fried because the Padres just don’t strike out. You’re looking for run prevention and workload and in an elimination game, you just can’t trust the latter. The same for Brown, Eflin and Montas. I’m going to narrowly call Joe Musgrove my top overall guy (Braves 96 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP), though a much better value on DraftKings.
I have Eflin and Brown very closely bunched with Manaea and Lugo, but have to give the latter two more of an edge because of the elimination factor, though no leash is as long as the regular season. The Mets bullpen is still a bit more beat up, so I think I would lean Manaea in a decent spot in Milwaukee. The Brewers knocked him around in his last start of the season, but he was terribly squeezed by De Jesus behind the plate in that game too.
Montas is popping as a decent value. Low priced in the second most negative run environment, especially with the roof closed and a great defense behind him (also why Lugo is popping), but I just don’t trust him in this spot. He too has a much shorter leash facing elimination.
Offense
Offensively, I’m going a bit more stars and scrubs today without fear of any pitcher, unlike yesterday. Despite what the Tigers may try to do, I’m looking at Tucker (202 wRC+, .351 ISO v RHP, .193 wRC+ September), Lindor (136, .208, 176), Carpenter (176, .326, 152), Witt (177, .276, 126) and Alvarez (157, .261, 161) as my top bats on the board. I know the Houston pair will be facing a LHP to start the game and perhaps once again, but they hit LHP well. I can basically fill an outfield before I have to start punting, aside from SS. Catcher on DraftKings is basically take the cheapest guy (Caratini).
I ended up with an Arraez (84, .063, 124), remember that Fried is worse against LHBs, Massey (102, .188, 92) in the leadoff spot, Iglesias (111, .096, 144) and/or Vierling (109, .184, 94). I’ve also added Winker (124, .164, 33) if you need a cheap OF bat. He’d been ice cold, but had a big hit yesterday.
Additional Notes
Montas is the top attack spot with batters from the left-hand side (Lindor, Nimmo, Winker) owning a .374 wOBA and xwOBA against him. RHBs have a .349 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against Musgrove, but I’m not sure he’s that pitcher anymore. LHBs .377 wOBA, .324 xwOBA against Fried. The same for Manaea (.321, .314). I’ll just note that LHBs have a .314 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against Olson, if that ends up mattering.
Brown would be the worst holding pitcher, but Caratini the top throwing catcher. Dilemma? The best running spot might be Fried/Murphy. Manaea/Alvarez would be another spot. Don’t bother to try running on Lugo/Perez.
Update #1
I have a lean towards Detroit at +150, but just don't have enough confidence that I know what the Tigers are going to do here. It'll certainly be towards neutralizing Alvarez and Tucker, but they don't have much of a weakness against LHP. I do have some faith in the young Detroit LHBs, though batters from that side did have just a .239 wOBA against Brown over his last 21 stats. No need to force something here.
Update #2
I'm pretty much in line with the price and total in this game. The only lineup change for the Royals is Renfroe in for Pham. The Orioles play their RHP lineup with Mountcastle's inclusion, rather than one of the young LHBs a bit of a surprise.
Update #3
Roof confirmed closed again. Mets play Martinez rather than Winker against Montas's large split. Doesn't make sense. Have leans towards the under and Manaea to beat his K prop. Put them into play as part of a SGP (u8.5, Manaea 5+ Ks, Nimmo BB, Lindor 2+ TB) with a DK boost.
Update #4
Lineups in San Diego exactly as expected. Did gain half a run on the total, down to 6.5 now.
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