MLB doesn’t like to make things easy. The Monday double header not only curtailed my post-season preview, but also prevents me from fully analyzing the Tuesday slate until it’s completed because not only do we not have pitching matchups for the two NL Wild Card games, we don’t even have teams yet.
Let’s start by noting that while I’ll still utilize the same bullpen numbers, this has much less meaning in October with teams basically only employing their best pitching options, including starting pitchers out of the bullpen. There are rarely post-season throw away games. I’ll attempt to adjust as the playoffs roll on.
On a side note, I'm writing this in the late innings of Game One of the Mets/Braves doubleheader. If I don't finish, it's because the Mets killed me.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (for now, may use post-season stats once we get some)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs =VLOOKUP(B9,Main!E:Y,19,FALSE)
Tigers @ Astros
Tarik Skubal became Detroit’s third pitching triple crown winner, but that’s something that includes Wins, which we would know nothing about. Let’s just say that all estimators exceed his 2.39 ERA, but none by more than half a run with a 25.7 K-BB% and 34 HardHit%. Batters from neither side of the plate exceeded a .265 wOBA or xwOBA against Skubal this year with RHBs below .230, while PitchingBot (PB) grades start at 52 with the fastball (60) and changeup (66) reaching elite territory, helping to register a 3.25 Bot ERA, alongside 103 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 115 (19.3 K%, 120 Home)
DEF: 19/24
B30: 3.52
BSR: -7
Framber Valdez has rivaled Skubal over his last 13 starts (22.5 K-BB%, 60.4 K-BB%, 5.9% Barels/BBE). More curveballs (35.8%), exactly the opposite of what the Astros encouraged Yusei Kikuchi to do, appears to have been the answer. Over that stretch, Valdez’s curveball earned a 69 PB grade (62 on the season), while he increased his Stuff+ and Pitching+ scores to 118 and 105 respectively. Like Skubal, Valdez’s full season estimators are all above, but not more than half a run separated from his 2.91 ERA. Interestingly, Valdez had a 31 point reverse wOBA split this season, though Statcast reverses that with RHBs exactly 50 points higher by xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 88 (24.6 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: 0/10
B30: 3.60
BSR: 7
While I don’t believe that any team past the first wild card in each league has any right to lay claim to being the best team in baseball this year, Tarik Skubal certainly gives the Tigers every chance in the world of winning a short (three to five game) series. Except that the Astros just might be the worst draw for them at this point because they’re starting a pitcher who can neutralize their young left-handed bats, who are a good chunk of the reason for their miraculous run since the deadline.
That doesn’t mean I don’t think the Tigers can win and I would play them (at least F5) at their current price (+120), if I knew that Yordan Alvarez is not playing. And, of course, once we know that, the line would likely drop.
I believe the Detroit offense to be better than their full season numbers, but more so against RHP, while the Astros also have a left-handed closer. Bullpens might be petty even here too. Both are at least decent. I don’t know if Detroit’s bullpenning will work out here, but they have a better defense and better base running than the Astros as well. I would also consider a Detroit series bet at it’s current price (+150) or better if I knew Alvarez to be out. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info drops when I do play something.
Royals @ Orioles
Following a 10 strikeout, but five run appearance against the Astros, Cole Ragans ended his season with four straight quality starts, allowing three runs over 25 innings. Despite a 12.3 K-BB% in the last three of those starts, Ragans was able to post a 20.5% mark on the season, which, along with a 35.4 HardHit%, generated non-FIP estimators all above his 3.14 ERA without reaching three and a half. Both of these pitchers exhibited a reverse split this year with Ragans holding RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA with LHBs a bit above .310. It’ll be interesting to see what the Orioles decide to do with their LHBs beyond Henderson and Cowser here. Ragans threw two pitches more than 12.8% of the time this year and both his changeup (23.7%) and fastball (41.8%) received 61 PB grades. Important because since the trade deadline, the Orioles were the sixth worst offense against fastballs (-0.4 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 115 (115 Home, 135 L7 days)
DEF: 28/16
B30: 3
BSR: -1
Despite a significant drop in strikeouts, Corbin Burnes was still pitching very well for the Orioles, thanks to a strong contact profile, until the calendar hit August. Burnes allowed 28 runs (21 earned) over 25.2 innings that month with just a 12.6 K-BB% and slightly worse contact profile (7.8% Barrels/BBE, 37.8 HardHit%), which was essentially league average. He really turned it around again once September hit though. In fact, over his last three starts, all playoff teams (though DET 2x), Burnes allowed a single run over 19 innings with a 28.8 K-BB% and just 10 hard hit batted balls (27%), enabling him to finish with a productive 17 K-BB% to go along with a 31.6 HardHit%. He may be the first RHP we’ve covered today, but he pitches like a lefty in terms of splits. While RHBs were still just below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him, LHBs failed to reach .270. Burnes also threw just two pitches more than 12.8% of the time, but while the curveball (21.5%) had a respectable 53 PB grade, the cutter (45%) ran an elite 67 grade. The only problem is that the Royals were the seventh best offense against cutters (0.86 wFC/C) post deadline. Burnes’ 120 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ exceed Ragans by 12 and three points respectively though.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K%, 92 Road, 41 L7 days)
DEF: -5/-4
B30: 3.70
BSR: 6
The Royals would not be here had they not won 12 of 13 against the White Sox. That said, kudos to them for recognizing that Cole Ragans is their best pitcher and not starting Seth Lugo in game one. The O’s are pretty potent from either side of the plate, but the deep left field wall in Baltimiore makes it friendlier for a left-handed pitcher and we can nearly say the same about Ragans giving the Royals a shot to win this as we did about Skubal to a bit lesser degree.
Once the O’s sounded like they might get Skubal on deadline day, I placed a wager at +750 for them to win it all. I figured even if they don’t get Skubal, a front three of GrayRod, Burnes and Eflin with that offense was pretty potent. Well, now they’re down to pitching Dean Kremer in this series (if needed) and who knows in the divisional round, should they make it that far. Treating this as a separate event entirely, I see some value in the Royals at +136. As mentioned in the open, I’m taking bullpen numbers with a grain of salt, but was incredibly surprised to see the Royals having the second best ones over the last month. In addition, they’ll likely be taking a bunch of their recent pitching prospects who haven’t worked out yet and utilizing them out of the pen in this series, giving them a chance to shine in a condensed role. As with the Tigers, the Royals also have much better defensive and base running numbers. Offensively, it may be a one man show, which translates better to winning basketball championships than baseball ones, as Bobby Witt Jr. (10.4) was responsible for more than half of the team’s position play fWAR (only Sal Perez also reached two), but there are other parts that matter in non-offensive areas.
Mets @ Brewers
Over Luis Severino’s first 21 starts, he generated a 3.91 ERA, but 10.0 K-BB% with estimators above four, averaging 96 mph and leaning on his sinker 26.7% of the time. In his last 10 starts (starting in August through the end of the season), he generated a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.86 ERA and better estimators, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball while leaning more on that pitch (37.6%) and his slider/sweeper (27.4%). All three of those pitches exceeded a 55 PitchingBot grade over this 10 start span though, while he generated a 113 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+. Severino did allow 10 runs and four home runs over his last 16.1 innings (Phillies 2x, Braves), but with all of his barrels leaving the park, a 35.6 K-BB% and 19.7 K-BB%. On the season, all estimators landed within one-third of a run of his 3.91 ERA, but I believe he ended the season on a better note than perceived. He did have more than a 60 point split by both wOBA and xwOBA, but with only four mostly marginal LHBs, the Brewers aren’t really the offense to exploit that. This is also a solid matchup for Severino in terms of his recent decisions because the Brewers a top five offense against sinkers since the deadline (0.71 wSI/C), while being third worst (-0.49 wFA/C) against fastballs.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 7/8
B30: 3.03
BSR: 4
Freddy Peralta is listed by sportsbooks, but not confirmed on MLB.com. This does not surprise me as Milwaukee is generally one of the closest teams to first pitch to release their lineup. Why wouldn’t they procrastinate here too. Sure, they didn’t know who they were facing, but it seems that facing the Mets rather than the Braves might be the one situation where they wouldn’t start Peralta first and I say that because RHBs had a .335 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against him this year, while LHBs .276 and .301. Sure, Statcast closes the gap significantly, but he’s still certinaly worse against RHBs and the Mets will likely only offer Lindor and Nimmo from the left-hand side (Winker may be hurt, not playing in either end of the DH on Tuesday and badly slumping down the stretch). Peralta did allow just four runs over his last three starts (15.1 innings) with a 21.0 K-BB% to finish the season at 18.2% with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE, but a 42.4 HardHit%. He has been very volatile all season long, posting nine quality starts with one run or none, while also allowing at least four runs only one fewer time. His 3.68 ERA is below, but within half a run of all estimators, within 0.35 runs of all non-FIP ones. Peralta may be wise to shelve his changeup (17.2%, 42 PB grade) entirely against the Mets (1.29 wCH/C since deadline). Peralta earned a 4.37 Bot ERA this year, but 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 27/24
B30: 3.11
BSR: -5
I don’t expect to have any financial interest in this game, but if forced, I’d probably side with the Mets F5. While I still don’t think any of the road teams on Tuesday deserve to be post-season teams, if the Mets starting pitching can deliver seven or more (as Severino and Manaea often have) to rest a weary bullpen, they have a chance here. I think pitching (starting) and offense are nearly a wash here, but give the Brewers the edges on defense, bullpen (despite last 30 day numbers because the Mets pen is exhausted) and perhaps most importantly on the base paths. Peralta hasn't gone deep in many games recently, but that's unnecessary with the strength of this pen. The good news for the Mets is that Severino holds runners well, while they may choose to employ Torrens, who threw out a staggering 60% of runners this year, against a team that could try to run wild on them. Alvarez is more of an average to slightly below thrower.
Braves @ Padres
I can’t tell you who is starting this game for the Braves, but I know who it won’t be. Chris Sale. Or Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo Lopez, all who would be on short rest. This is somewhat the norm for the Braves, who started a post-season game with three innings of A.J. Minter a few seasons ago (and won, I believe). I’m using Bryce Elder as a place holder because he’s thrown the most major league innings of other pitchers on the 40-man roster. With fastball and changeup grades below 40 (5.22 Bot ERA), he would be a poor choice to face the Padres, who have murdered fastballs since the break (0.5 wFA/C), while batters from either side of the plate have had at least a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.8%, 114 Home)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 2.78
BSR: 2
Sometime in August, I finally revealed that I had made a small pre-season wager on Michael King to win the NL Cy Young at enormous odds. That’s because my man started an 18 start stretch in May where we posted a 23.3 K-BB% with just 3.5% Barrels/BBE and a 25 HardHit%. That’s some Cy Young shit and a perfectly valid reason to start game one against an offense that hasn’t hit RHP this year. King was a bit unfortunate that 17 of his 28 barrels left the park this season, but his 3.33 FIP is still his only estimator within half a run of his 2.95 ERA with others ranging from a 3.50 xFIP to a 3.68 dERA. I’ll take slightly the under on those, considering how he dominated over the last four and a half months of the season. That King held RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwoBA has significant value here. He doesn’t have elite pitch modeling, but all PB grades between 52 and 56 (3.83 Bot ERA) and a 95 Stuff+ working up to a 100 Pitching+
Opp wRC+: 95 (23.9 K%)
DEF: 2/-6
B30: 4.04
BSR: -12
The Padres are the largest favorite of day one and rightfully so, considering the way the Braves exhausted themselves to get here, lost their Cy Young starter and can’t hit RHP. For these reasons, I mentioned I’d play the Padres to win it all on Twitter, as soon as this matchup was confirmed and that I did at +1200, in addition to Orioles (+750) and Dodgers (+1000) championship futures. I don’t have any real feel for who might come out of the AL at this point, but feel good about both my NL teams, with the Dodger rotation being my biggest worry.
As for this particular matchup, the Padres have significant edges on offense, starting pitching and base running, but shockingly poor bullpen numbers over the last 30 days. I’m not taking a hard stance on that. The post-season roster will be different, but Suarez (5.9 K-BB%) stunk and Scott got lit up in his season finale against the Dodgers. I don’t have a play on this particular game (or series), but might if it’s actually Elder because in that case, I make the Padres nearly -200 F5 and can’t even adjust the available bullpen arms enough to figure out what a comfortable full game line would be.
Daily fantasy slates were dropped late tonight. Hope to have more insight in the late morning. I will say that without added context, Valdez and King are my primary place holders with the a Mets/Padres stack. Again, without context (price, weather, umpires, actual lineups, who the hell is pitching for Atlanta).
Daily Fantasy Notes
We start the post-season with an all-day four game slate that includes a pair of protected environments with Houston almost always closed, but Milwaukee frequently open with decent weather. Neutral weather in the most negative run environment in San Diego, but potentially pitcher friendly in a more neutral Baltimore environment may make Houston (102 PRF roof closed) the only even neutral run environment on the slate.
No surprise the Padres (4.27) and Brewers (4.06) top the slate, while the Royals (2.94) and Tigers (2.75) fail to reach three. Important early notes are that Alvarez and Pasquantino are in the lineups. We already have umpire assignments for the entire series and none move the needle much on Tuesday.
Pitching
Pitching is so tight today. There is very little gap between my top and bottom rated starters and it’s so close that I can’t even see much of a difference between Skubal and Valdez and even Ragans with context added (park, weather, umpire, lineups). I’m also giving King a slightly manual boost for facing an exhausted Atlanta team under the circumstances. Severino Is my lowest graded pitcher, but still viable and has the extra incentive to pitch deep into the game. This is not counting whoever is pitching for the Braves, who is automatically the bottom pitcher. I see Elder in some places as a place holder, but have also heard Ian Anderson mentioned. For now, I believe I’m sticking with Valdez and King. Lots of strikeouts in that Detroit lineup.
Offense
First off, Bobby Witt Jr. (177 wRC+, .276 ISO v RHP, 126 wRC+ L30 days) and Francisco Lindor (136, .208, 176) are the only guys I’d probably call top bats on a more normal slate. Obviously, you see the problem there. Gunnar Henderson (138, .213, 162) might be my third rated bat too. The Orioles do appear to be emphasizing LHBs a bit more against Ragans’ reverse split by the way. Garrett Mitchell (132, .239, 129) is my top value.
The caveat to all of the above is that Padres bats jump to the top once we get either an Elder or Anderson confirmation instead of a straight bullpen game. Every projected Padre has at least a 99 wRC+ v RHP with only Cronenworth and Higashioka below a 105 wRC+ in September overall. I’m mostly sticking to my Mets/Padres stacks with a few exceptions for affordability. Those are Mitchell and, unfortunately, a couple of cheap Detroit top of the order RHBs on FD, despite using Valdez on DK. I find it very difficult to make reasonable lineups otherwise. The biggest pain of it all is picking out a catcher on DK.
Additonal Notes
The best attack spot is San Diego LHBs if Elder (.400 wOBA, .373 xwOBA) gets the call and probably if Anderson does too. LHBs also have a wOBA and xwOBA between .335 and .340 against Severino, which gives Mitchell and even Turang a lot of value. A .335 wOBA, but .310 xwOBA for RHBs against Elder too.
King is the toughest pitcher to run on, though Elder and Severino hold runners well too. Torrens would be the best throwing catcher if in the lineup. The otherwise best catching arms are both in Houston today. The three lefties are the worst runner holders (Skubal, Valdez and Ragans). The worst throwing catchers are in San Diego.
Update #1 - Roof confirmed closed in Houston. Slight line movement towards DET, larger F5.
Update #2: Three LHBs against Ragans reverse split, the normal five RHBs against Burnes reverse split. Small 1.49% gain on KCR ML.
Update #3: Played over Severino's K prop (5.5 +144 FD). He's had at least five in 10 straight (more than five in five of those and has that extra incentive to pitch deep with the exhausted bullpen. The four through seven batters for the Brewers all strike out more than 25% of the time against RHP. Roof confirmed closed (94 PRF). Mets will play Taylor in CF instead of Bader (essentially the same player). They foolishly add a LHB Winker instead of Martinez against the reverse split of Peralta, though Winkers K rate is 10 points lower than Martinez against RHP. Also, thought they might DH Alvarez and play Torrens behind the plate with neither of their DHs hitting and the running threat of the Brewers, but they went straight Alvarez behind the plate here.
Update #4: Finally some clarity on the Atlanta pitching situation. A.J. Smith-Shawver will start. More upside (strikeouts) than Elder, but also double digit walk rates. Surprised to see he only had one major league appearance this year. He does have three innings of post-season experience, but it wasn't very good. However, Bryce Elder is also on the roster and I'm not sure we still don't see him tonight. This doesn't change much. I have both projected around four and a half (though, again, A.J.S.S. the more volatile). The only thing that could be considered even a minor surprise in the lineups is D'Arnaud behind the plate. Slightly higher strikeout rate than Murphy against RHP, but it really doesn't move the needle much. Line movement towards the Padres, F5 is basically the -196 I had it projected as with Elder starting.
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