With just four games today, the intro may be longer than the actual baseball content. I'm not sure what the rest of the week will look like for a number of rerasons.
First, there's some work on the house I was looking to put off until after the season that just can't wait anymore. I don't plan to be an active participant, but can't say it won't cut into my baseball time at all. Tomorrow (Tuesday) seems most at risk right now (from this at least).
Next, as expected with football in full swing, there's been a drop in readership. Not as significant as I thought...at first. It's been more of a steady decline and I don't take that personal. I like foot ball too. Although nobody's ever called a home run back for holding or a block in the back. We only have blocking the plate, which is rarely called and you know what it looks like as soon as you see it.
Lastly, the nature of the last week of the baseball season leads to a lot of uncertainty. We know some teams will be playing for their post-season life (basically the Mets, Braves & Diamondbacks), while others may or may not put a priority on seeding, while we have no idea what non-contenders will do, especially against other non-contenders. We're liable to see more resting, more potential swaps and/or scratches and shortened outings for pitchers to end the year.
We'll see if it gets to be more work than reward, but I certainly plan on post season content next week and beyond if there's enough interest.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Luckily, I think we have some meaningful games on a four game slate today. The Phillies could still be playing for the division if they don't win the currently ongoing Sunday night game against the Mets (or seeding otherwise), which is tied at one in the fifth. The Cubs should put their best effort forth against them. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are playing for nothing. The Mariners and Astros are playing for the AL West, though it's a long shot on Seattle's part. The Diamondbacks are still playing for the wild card, so the Giants should give their best effort.
Cubs @ Phillies
Justin Steele (Roster Resource) is our only unconfirmed pitcher and as such, there is no line on this game currently. I failed to realize he had missed a few weeks last time out and foolishly played his K prop. He was robbed of an inning ending strikeout by the umpire, but still walked three of the 12 batters he faced (including that one). He has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last four full starts and, around the injuries, has had another very solid season for the Cubs, proving last year was no fluke. True, his 3.03 ERA is more than half a run below contact neutral estimators with a 17.6 K-BB%, but all estimators are at least a quarter run below four, while 4.1% Barrels/BBE with a 33.3 HardHIt% actually merit a 2.79 xERA and near ERA matching 3.18 FIP. Steele has a little bit of a split, though batters from neither side reach a .285 wOBA or xwOBA against him. The fastball (49.8%) and slider (29.8%) both exceed a 60 PitchingBot grade, generating a 2.84 Bot ERA with a 99 Stuff+ that works up to a 102 Pitching+. (*Just saw the late note that Pearson is now listed a second before posting. Will adjust on Tuesday.)
Nate Pearson is starting this game for the Blue Jays, but I’ll leave Steele’s info above because he’s listed for Tuesday and content for tomorrow and potentially Friday is looking grimmer and grimmer. Pearson has thrown 22 and 33 pitches in his last two appearances and has not started a game all season or faced more than nine batters even once. I suppose they could push him out to three innings or he could be a stricter opener for an unknown bulk pitcher (DraftKings does have Wesneski listed among today’s pitchers) or a straight bullpen game.
Opp wRC+: 120 (best in majors – 112 Home)
DEF: 15/27
B30: 4.31 (6th worst)
BSR: 1
To illustrate how inconsistent the talented Aaron Nola has been this season, he’s sandwiched 13 innings of three run ball, striking out 18 of 48 Brewers and Braves with two walks around nine innings of 11 run ball (10 earned) with four home runs (though just two barrels) surrendered to the Mets and Marlins, striking out 12 of 46 with four walks. The overall numbers are fine, though not Ace like (17.5 K-BB%, 7.3% Barrels/BBE, 38.2 HardHit%). A 3.54 ERA matches a 3.53 xFIP with all other non-FIP estimators less than a quarter of a run above. A 4.04 FIP is representative of 29 home runs and just 39 barrels, though this is not a strictly Philly park thing with just 15 of his 29 homers surrendered at home, where his K-BB increases to 18.2%. Of the three pitches Nola throws more than 10% of the time, the sinker (61) and curve (68) have elite PB grades, while the fastball (49) is just average, returning a 3.61 Bot ERA. A 104 Stuff+ matches a 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102 (107 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: 9/5
B30: 3.99
BSR: 7
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
If there were a first half Cy Young award, Tanner Houck may have been in contention for it. However Fangraphs splits the season up, he had an 18.0 K-BB% in the first half, but 8.4% in the second half. More specifically, he had a 20 K-BB% over his first 16 starts, 7.7% in 13 since with the contact profile remaining relatively unchanged (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 41.8 HardHit%, 55.7 GB%). His Stuff+ and Pitching+ went from 109 and 108 to 107 and 100. It seems the stuff was still there, but his command of it slipped? Specifically, his slider went from a 60 PitchingBot grade to a 50 grade, though Houck never altered his usage of the pitch. Right-handed batters have a .294 wOBA against him versus just .267 for LHBs, though Statcast has batters from both sides at a .315 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20.2 K%, 106 Home, 88 L7 days)
DEF: -10/0
B30: 4.07
BSR: -9
I’m not saying Chris Bassitt isn’t good enough to be a part of anyone’s rotation anymore, but his best days are almost certainly behind him. He can still put down RHBs (.283 wOBA, .271 xwOBA), but LHBs have absolutely smashed him (.373 wOBA, .379 xwOBA). He throws eight different pitches, five of them less than 10% of the time and only his sinker (54 PB grade) more than 20%, so taking his 4.22 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ paints the better picture than individual pitch grades (all either below 40 or between 50 and 55 by the way). Bassitt has just three quality starts over his last 13 with his 4.16 ERA on the season within one-quarter of a run of all estimators. The good news for him is that the Sox are a bit less potent from the left-hand side without Devers.
Opp wRC+: 106 (24.5 K%, 109 Road, 30 L7 days)
DEF: 24/8
B30: 4.02
BSR: 5
Mariners @ Astros
I’d wager that anyone reading baseball content like this on a four game slate the last week of the season likely knows about Home Bryce Miller (24 K-BB%, LHBs .254 wOBA) and Road Bryce Miller (11.2 K-BB%, LHBs .341 wOBA with 11 of the 21 home runs he’s allowed). The Astros don’t have a lot of LHBs, but the ones they do have….you know. On a positive note, Miller has shut down the Cardinals, Tigers and Padres in three of his last six road starts, pitching well enough against the Dodgers and White Sox, but it’s there’s certainly some difference, that’s more than the park in Seattle holds his mistakes better (though that’s also true). Every pitch Miller throws more than 2.2% of the time reaches a 50 PitchingBot grade with the fastball (42.7%) and splitter (16.8%) exceeding 60, forming an impressive 3.22 Bot ERA alongside a 112 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.3 K%, 122 Home, 110 L7 days)
DEF: -13/11
B30: 3.52
BSR: -3
Oakland, Boston, Pittsburgh and Minnesota were the only teams to stop Hunter Brown from posting a quality start over his last 21 tries. Over his last 20, he has a 19.3 K-BB% with just 4.6% Barrels/BBE and a 27.6 HardHit%. Even with the first eight starts still wielding some influence, Brown’s solid 3.54 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. I DO mean within, as there are estimators on both sides. Despite RHBs being 38 points better by wOBA against him, Statcast puts batters from either side within two points of a .285 xwOBA with LHBs owning the four point advantage. The cutter (16.9%, 46) and curve (12.5%, 49) are his only two pitches (of six) outside a 52 to 57 PitchingBot grade with a 104 Stuff+ matching a 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 105 (27.5 K%, 142 L7 days)
DEF: 4/6
B30: 3.31 (3rd best)
BSR: -3
I have a slight Seattle lean here, but Miller is one of the few pitchers I worry I’m not reflecting his home/road splits strongly enough. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to see if this changes.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
The 23 Orioles Hayden Birdsong faced last time out was a season high. He struck out three of them. Birdsong is a very volatile young pitcher with the potential of a 26 K%, but also a 13.9 BB% and 49.7 HardHit%. We can see this volatility in his pitch modeling too. He has a 62 grade changeup (19.6%, 1.6 RV/100), but everything else between 38 and 44 PB grades. The 38 grade fastball (44%) is a problem in general and certainly against the Diamondbacks (0.82 wFA/C is double the next best offenses against fastballs – NYM 0.41 wFA/C). Interestingly, RHBs have crushed Birdsong (.360 wOBA, .378 xwOBA), so it will be interesting to see what the Diamondbacks decide to do (Grichuk?), though LHBs are within nine points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA too. Overall, a 4.74 ERA matches a 4.75 xERA and is within one-third of a run of all other estimators.
Opp wRC+: 113 (20 K%, 120 Home, 126 L7 days)
DEF: -4/18
B30: 3.76
BSR: 12
Eduardo Rodriguez still has a 75 Stuff+ mark, 72 over his last two starts, while striking out 18 of 47 Brewers and Rockies, though his Pitching+ climbs from 94 to 97. The four-seam (43.5%) and changeup (22.4%) do receive 53 PitchingBot grades though. His last start, at Coors, in which he struck out 11 Rockies, was ERod’s first quality start of the season and these last two were the second and third time he’s allowed fewer than three runs. The 5.09 ERA is above all estimators except a 5.32 xERA with a 12.2 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. He even has a SIERA, xFIP and FIP below four and a half, but batters from either side of the plate are between a .338 and .355 wOBA and xwOBA. The Giants have done some damage against LHP this year, but even that’s fallen off as their offense as a whole has over the last couple of months.
Opp wRC+: 106 (24.7 K%)
DEF: 27/28
B30: 3.62
BSR: 8
I do have some interest in the total (over in some manner specifically), but want to see a bit more, though the environment should be pretty stable with the roof usually closed.
Daily Fantasy Notes
Just a few words on daily fantasy today. Three of four environments are protected with the roof already confirmed closed in Arizona, almost always closed in Houston and shrug in Toronto. It’s in the 60s in Philly with a chance of rain.
The Diamondbacks (5.15) top the slate with the Phillies (4.58) more than half a run behind. The Giants (3.85), Mariners (3.72) and Cubs (3.42) fall below four with the other three teams in between.
If you’re playing daily fantasy baseball on Monday night, you may need to get yourself checked out because I couldn’t build a lineup without stacking against my own pitcher. Speaking of which, I’m not sure who my top pitcher would be tonight. Hunter Brown pops out, but this Seattle offense has been smoking (127 wRC+ L30 days is third best in majors). Bassitt and ERod are popping a bit more on my board, but I think that’s due to workload for the former and great defense for both. Nola is also interesting, potentially in the worst park against the fourth hottest offense over the last 30 days (126). It’s pitcher friendly weather, but with a chance of delay.
Offensively, four outfielders stand out as the four top bats on the board (Alvarez, Tucker, Duran, Ramos) before Vlad and then two more outfielders (Carroll & Schwarber). Arizona is the obvious top stack, but I also find myself attracted to more affordable Giants, though still find myself in a situation that the only pitcher I can afford after Diamondbacks, Astros and Giants is ERod, although you can pair him with whoever you want on DK.
That’s it. Most likely back Wednesday. Doctor’s appointment in the afternoon today and then too much to do to get the house ready for the work being done tomorrow. I'll be going through the slate one more time before I go and will have minor updates if anything has changed since last night.
Quick Update: Forgot Yordan suffered a knee injury last night and may not be in the lineup tonight. Most potent LHB out of the lineup for Houston would push me closer to the Mariners.
Update 1:15 EST: Played CHC +160 because I can't find the substantial PHI advantage. It's not offense. It's not defense. Slightly in the bullpen, while Nolan's 3.75 SIERA/3.76 xERA is fine, but as mentioned above, not Ace-like.
Update 2:05 EST: No value left on SEA below +120, even with Alvarez out.
Update 2:15 EST: Ultimately landed on F5 o4.5 (-130). ERod impressed at Coors, but ultimately has some horrible numbers and marginal at best pitching grades.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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