We finally have enough pitchers for some Friday content for the first time in three weeks. Almost unfortunate because there's a lot of chaos around the house and it would have been a day off put to good use. Never the less, always happy to talk about baseball with just another week to the regular season. In this new format, I don't know how many games I'll be covering before I starts, but somewhere between three and six seems to be the pace, although there have been a couple of slates where it might have been none or one.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Random Notes
Trevor Williams threw his last major league pitch in May. He faced 18 batters in the second of two rehab starts and shouldn’t be limited, other than the fact he only recorded seven sixth inning outs on the season before he was injured. Just two of his 10 barrels (6.2%) have left the park.
Jameson Taillon has three highly graded pitches in his cutter (24.5%, 2.2 RV/100, 65 PB grade), sweeper (15.9%, 0.6 RV/100, 65 grade) and curveball (15%, 0.1 RV/100, 57 grade), but LHBs still have a .330 wOBA and .331 xwOBA against him.
All estimators within a quarter run of Mitch Keller’s 3.87 ERA. It’s who he is.
Nine straight starts for Nick Martinez with a 16.7 K-BB%. Four quality starts, including last two. More impressive than expected.
Jose Berrios has allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last 47.2 innings with a 17.9 K-BB% (12.5% season), just seven barrels (5.4%) and a 36.2 HardHit%.
Tyler Alexander has a 59+ PitchingBot grade on his fastball (22.2%), sinker (12.8%), cutter (31.7%) and sweeper (18.8%), but also a 5.58 ERA with a 4.35 SIERA being his best estimator and batters from either side of the plate above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Brant Hurter has allowed 11 runs over 38.2 innings with a 21.6 K-BB%, 56.7 GB% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. He has just a 90 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+, but 3.53 Bot ERA, though with just one pitch grade above 44 (sinker 49.7%, 2 RV/100, 69 PB grade). If I could be more certain it were him, there would be a Detroit play at any significant dog price, but the Tigers use openers and don’t necessarily announce that he’ll be bulking ahead of time. It would be sickening to play this and see Kenta Maeda trot in from the bullpen.
Corbin Burnes is coming off his best start in quite a while and second straight quality start against Detroit (7 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 7 K). He’s struck out more than seven just twice and more than six just four more times.
Matt Festa 1st time through the order: 21.2 K-BB%, .200 wOBA
Matt Festa 2nd time through the order: 14.7 K-BB%, .463 wOBA
Matt Festa 3rd time through the order: struck out eight of 22
Richard Fitts hasn’t allowed an earned run over his first 10.2 innings, but he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out (four each). He does have a 119 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ without a PItchingBot grade below 54.
Somehow the Festa Fitts matchup is only my second favorite of the day.
Cristopher Sanchez has struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts. A 23.1 K-BB% over this span has brought his season rate up to 14.6% with a 57.9 GB%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE and 34.9 HardHit%. Is he their second best pitcher? Worst estimators are a 3.53 SIERA and xERA.
Instead of his ERA rising to meet his estimators, David Peterson simply improved the estimators. He has a 15.1 K-BB% over his last six starts (9.9% season) and has completed at least seven innings in four of them. All estimators are still at least a run above his 2.85 ERA by the way, but I'll happily take 15.1% with a 50% ground ball rate.
Braves @ Marlins
Charlies Morton has allowed eight runs over 40.1 innings since an eight run outing against the Brewers and he’s done this with an impressive 19.4 K-BB% and just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. On the season, he has just a 15.5 K-BB% with 9.3% Barrels/BBE, so he’s showing us something we weren’t sure he still had in him down the stretch. At this point, his 4.01 ERA is within half a run of all estimators in both directions and LHBs still have a .331 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs less than 15 points lower. Things were really looking rough there for a while. The curveball (42.1%, 0.3 RV/100, 59 PB grade) still plays though. And guess who the worst offense in the league against curveballs is (-1.06 wCU/C). No other offense is even half as bad.
Opp wRC+: 90 (89 Home, 91 L7 days)
DEF: -3/-11
B30: 3.40
BSR: 1
Valente Bellozo has a competent 3.70 ERA through 58.1 innings, but he’s done so with an 8.0 K-BB% and larger 10.5% Barrels/BBE. Bellozo’s best friends are a .247 BABIP and 83.1 LOB% because he doesn’t have an estimator below five. Pitch modeling absolutely agrees with a 72 Stuff+ and 90 Pitching+ plus a Bot ERA exceeding five as well. In his case, RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Bellozo too.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.1 K%, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -26/-3
B30: 3.37
BSR: -11
Oh, no. This is the first full game write up. Is he going to do it again after what the Marlins did the last two days…
No. Or at least not yet. Look at ALL the numbers though. It’s hard to see an Atlanta edge outside Morton, although admittedly a massive one. The numbers taken as a whole are telling me I’m supposed to play the Marlins here, but I’m going to wait. If it gets to +200 though…
Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for to see and also get earlier info dumps.
More Random Notes
Nine of George Kirby’s 21 strikeouts over his last five starts came in just one start against Oalkand. It’s the only time he’s exceeded a 16 K-BB% in his last seven starts, but he still has a 20.1% mark on the season.
Striking out four of 16 batters with a 14.8 SwStr% in your season debut in September is great for just about anybody not named Jacob deGrom. Don’t worry though. He threw 26 fastballs (73 PB grade) and 31 sliders (65 grade) resulting in a 2.29 Bot ERA, 152 Stuff+ and 120 Pitching+. That’ll play in this league.
Angels @ Astros
If you can’t do much with a changeup (37.2%, 1.8 RV/100, 60 PB grade), then Tyler Anderson may have your number and the Astros are a bottom third of the league offense against changeups (-0.18 wCH/C), though that didn’t stop them from putting 10 of 25 runners on base against him despite just six hard hit batted balls (33.3%). BABIP (.353) and walks (three). Anderson’s 3.60 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators and a 4.18 xERA is the best of them because he has just a 32.1 HardHit%. And because of that changeup, RHBs are within seven points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs a bit above.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19 K%, 118 Home)
DEF: -22/-4
B30: 3.89
BSR: -7
Justin Verlander has struck out just eight of his last 88 batters and walked just as many. The contact profile is still fine (8.0% Barrels/BBE, 33.9 HardHit%), creating a 4.01 xERA despite an 11.2 K-BB% and no other estimators below 4.90. Verlander has a history of breaking contact neutral estimators, so while I won’t buy in fully on the xERA, I’ll go halfway there. You still can’t get to a spot where you convince me he’s a quality pitcher right now. I didn’t say anymore. I said right now and perhaps anymore Stuff+ tells you one thing (118), but PitchingBot tells you something else (all pitch grades below 50).
Opp wRC+: 89 (87 Road, 69 L7 days)
DEF: 2/8
B30: 3.88
BSR: -8
Yuck. Yuck, yuck, yuck and double yuck, but Justin Verlander simply isn’t a true two to one favorite over any team in this league right now (maybe the White Sox). These teams have similar pen estimators over the last month too. I’m sorry, but Angels +215.
Even More Random Notes
Mason Black has struck out exactly two in three of his six starts (and one 14 batter relief outing) and six in two of his other three. With a 29.8 GB% and 11.7% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are above four and a half.
Like Anderson, Michael Wacha is set up for success against offenses that struggle against the changeup (32.1%, 2.3 RV/100, 80 PB grade on an 80 scale). The Giants are another one of those teams (-0.31 wCH/C is fifth worst).
Zac Gallen has a 3.61 ERA with all estimators within half a run and only his dERA (4.07) above four. I legitimately thought he was having a worse season, at least the underlying numbers. Nothing at all really stand out here in a good or bad way.
A 10 run outing finally ran Colin Rea’s ERA above four. He had a seven start run with a 22.2 K-BB% that ended just prior to that, but he also has a double digit barrel rate since the start of that run.
Ben Lively has a 13.3 K% (4.8 K-BB%) over his last eight starts and a 68 Stuff+ on the year.
Kyle Gibson...nope. I got nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Garrett Crochet has struck out 33 of his last 88 battters. That’s a 37.5 K%. Unfortunately, it’s taken him seven starts to do so. He hasn’t exceeded four innings in any of them. You can’t even play a F5 with him now.
Joe Musgrove struck out one of 17 batters in his first start back from his latest IL tripe. He has a 26.7 K-BB% in six starts since. Peaking at the right time.
Yankees @ Athletics
It’s not Verlander territory, but Gerrit Cole has been more vulnerable this year. His strikeout rate has dropped from 32.4% in 2022 to 27% in his Cy Young season to 25.7% this year, while his 8.0 BB% is his highest rate since his first year in Houston when he had a strikeout rate 10 points higher. Don’t get me wrong, that’s still a top end of the rotation pitcher, but not a $300 million one. His 3.97 ERA is within 0.15 points of all estimators and they’re going both ways. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .299 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA against him. That’s league average and even slightly worse. All of his PitchingBot grades are still above 50, but on the curve (19.2%, 1.5 RV/100, 62) exceeds 55, while his 112 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ are also much better than average. Gerrit Cole is far better than an average pitcher, but I might not have the confidence I usually would with him starting the first game of a playoff series.
Opp wRC+: 101 (25.1 K%, 113 L7 days)
DEF: 3/16
B30: 3.64
BSR: 1
Three starts and 12 runs over 20 innings for J.T. Ginn, but with an impressive 18.4 K-BB% (better than Cole’s right now), though with seven barrels and a 46 HardHit%. A 12.4 SwStr%, suggests a 22.5 K% may not be his peak, though a 45.5 Z-O-Swing is not much more encouraging. Ginn doesn’t have a PB grade reaching 50, but a 102 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ make you think, as with most Oakland starters, that league average might be among the range of outcomes.
Opp wRC+: 121 (15.6 HR/FB, 116 Road
DEF: -39/-20
B30: 4.12
BSR: -5
The A’s don’t’ have any advantages here outside being at home and base running, which don’t count for much, but it’s something. Outside defense though, they don’t have any massive deficiencies either. Yes, the Yankees should absolutely be favored, but probably by a more moderate amount (A’s +168). The Yankees may also be doing some post-season clinching celebrating on Thursday night.
If you are of a certain age, you would realize why Cole Ginn would be one of my favorite name matchups of the year. And even better, the second time they face off (hopefully next year), when it will be Cole Ginn time again. You know it will always win.
Last Random Notes
Nine of Kyle Freeland’s last 15 starts have been quality starts and only his last one (seven innings) with three earned runs. He has a 14.9 K-BB%, but 9.7% Barrels/BBE over this stretch.
This may be Justin Wrobleski with a 5.4 K-BB% and all estimators well above five in 32.1 innings
Daily Fantasy Notes
One-third of a 12 game Friday night slate will be played in protected environments:
Miami, Texas & Houston: Almost always closed
Milwaukee: Generally open if the temperature reaches 70 without rain risk
And we finally do have some rain risk on this slate, most pertinently in Boston, where it’s also only around 60 degrees with a double digit wind blowing in from the monster. We also have a double digit wind blowing in from center again at Citi Field, though this didn’t seem to bother the offenses at all last night. Temperatures also dip into the 60s for the three west coast games too.
The Dodgers lead the slate at 5.57 runs, half a run above the Braves 5.03. The Astros (4.95), Royals (4.86) and Yankees (4.73) are above four and a half with 11 teams (nearly half the slate) failing to top four implied runs and then the lonely White Sox at the bottom (2.67), the only offense failing to top a three run team total.
Pitching
This is an difficult pitching slate, not because there’s not anybody worth playing, but because I don’t see a clear number one, two, three or four. There are a lot of solid choices and I’m not so sure about a few of the spots I expect people to gravitate to, like Cole.
To start with, this is the best version of Musgrove we’ve seen over an extended period this year. He’s the likely most popular pick I’m on board with and currently have him in both single entry lineups.
Then we get to the group right there with him or just slightly below in Sanchez, Burnes, Wacha and Gallen. I’m sure there are some surprises there. Sanchez is in a tough spot, but has turned into a workhorse, increasing his strikeout rate recently with tons of ground ball contact with a significant park upgrade. Burnes is another workhorse in a favorable park, though the strikeouts aren’t what they used to be. The Detroit offense is improved with most of the potency from the left-side, which is bad for the park, but not quite bad for Burnes, who has a reverse split. Does the Wacha mention throw you off? One of the first seven projected Giants is below a 23.8 K% vs RHP this year. He’s my current SP2 on DK. Gallen is just fine. He doesn’t have any stand out aspects, but there are enough strikeouts in the Milwaukee lineup for him to offer value.
Additional pitcher notes: Morton is fine against the Marlins and likely has some value if he can keep up his recent pace, but much more marginal if going by full season numbers. David Festa is interesting with his upside combined with the pitching weather in Fenway, where the Red Sox usually have a ton of strikeouts in the lineup. Remember, he only goes through the lineup twice and the second time has generally been an adventure. I don’t know if Kirby has enough upside for his cost with a park downgrade against a below average, but contact prone offense. Verlander is less than $8K against a terrible lineup. If he can’t get it done here, and I’m not sure he can, considering his last start against them returned two strikeouts and walks.
Top Pens: Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Braves, Brewers
Bottom Pens: Pirates, Dodgers, Rangers, Athletics, Angels
Workload Issues: Emmanuel Clase (51 – back to back and four of five), Hunter Gaddis (27 – two straight) – Andres Munoz (38 – two straight) – Ryan Walker (35 – two straight)
Offense
I’ve found myself gravitating towards three spots, none of which scream out for players that absolutely need to be included in your lineups. The first is in Kanas City. Considering the weather in Boston and much warmer weather in Kansas City, it might be the top offensive environment on the board tonight (though we still like Wacha for the K situation at a reasonable price). Batters from the right-hand side have a .448 wOBA and .410 ISO v Mason Black with LHBs above .350 too. Will these numbers regress? Probably, but it’s a starting point. Despite being a blow average bat (97 wRC+, .110 ISO v RHP, 67 wRC+ L30 days), Tommy Pham gives you an affordable leadoff bat right in front of my favorite bat on the slate tonight, but one I’m having a lot of trouble affording in Bobby Witt (176, .283, 129) and maybe the top Catcher on the slate in Sal Perez (112, .180, 131). If you are willing to punt 1B, Yuli Gurriel is near the minimum and has started his Kansas City career off with a bang (222, .111, 156).
The next spot is a road team at 4.45 runs. Milwaukee is a somewhat neutral run environment that enhances power with the roof open and we mentioned in the notes, Colin Rea’s tendencies towards hard contact. Right-handed batters have a .319 wOBA and .328 xwOBA against him with LHBs at .324 and .356. Every projected Diamondback exceeds a 100 wRC+ v RHP with only Moreno, McCarthy and Perdomo below a .200 ISO. Walker, Smith, Carroll, Moreno and Suarez have at least a 150 wRC+ L30 days. Smith, Carroll, Marte and Peterson are my favorite Arizona bats.
Lastly, I have interest in three Astros in particular and you absolutely know who they are. Altuve (180, .166, 139), Alvarez (192, .257, 155) and Tucker (118, .213, 131) are high priced standouts against Anderson’s platoon split, though RHBs (.295, .307) are near league average against him too.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Witt
2 – Alvarez
3 – Juan Soto (183, .291, 132) – LHBs have a small sample .426 wOBA and .399 xwOBA against Ginn. Even if that’s not real, he’s Juan Soto.
4 – Shohei Ohtani (128, .216, 187) – LHBs have a .344 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against Freeland.
Top Value Bats
(FD) P.Smith – Kyle Manzardo – Pham – Tommy Edman – Alvarez
(DK) Manzardo – Smith – Pham – Edman
Touching on the two batters above not yet mentioned, Manzardo (121, .210, 211) has been scorching since his return, has been hitting second the last few days and it in one of the better weather spots on the board against Kyle Gibson (LHBs .342 wOBA, .343 xwOBA). Best part is he costs less than $2.5K on either site. Tommy Edman has been a small sample lefty-masher (270, .500, 129) that’s difficult to ignore with the top offense on the board tonight. Right-handed batters have a .338 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against Freeland.
Additional Notes
The top attack spot is in Kansas City if you buy into Black’s numbers especially against RHBs. One we haven’t mentioned, if Wrobleski is the guy in Los Angeles, RHBs have a .371 wOBA and .402 xwOBA against him, but he’s in the same boat as Black sample wise and we’re talking about Colorado bats on the road. Batters from the right side have a .359 wOBA and .365 xwOBA in another small sample from Bellozo.
My top rated pure power bats (ISO and HRs and stuff) are Michael Toglia, Judge and Teoscar Hernandez. Takes park, weather, opposing pitcher and own ISO split into account.
Best combos to run on: deGrom/anyone (assuming you can get on base, which removes pretty much every bat), Freeland/Stallings, Rea/Contreras
Worst combos to run on: Peterson/Torrens (maybe Alvarez too), Wacha/Perez or Fermin, Musgrove/Higashioka (not that you’re on CWS bats anyway), Lively is a great holder, but Naylor doesn’t throw well.
Top running threats (sprint speed – which doesn’t necessarily turn into SBs, pitcher hold, catcher throw) are Julio Rodriguez and virtually all Marienrs, McCarthy & Carroll, Jeremy Pena
That’s about the gist of it today.
Update 4:55 EST
Some short hand here, but added TBR -102 or DK 50% Boost +147 - Both pitchers 4.35 SIERA (Berrios much better recently, Alexander great PitchingBot grades) - TBR 99/92 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, TOR 99/87 (Bichette IL again) - TBR slightly better pen estimators L30 days and much better base running.
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