With a larger than expected 12 game Thursday board (and likely six game daily fantasy slate), we're going short form, live blogging again because I don't have time to get through all 12.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Giants @ Orioles
I don’t anticipate having a stake in this game, but there is enough interesting information that I want to drop some notes. Logan Webb has allowed 17 runs (16 earned) over his last 21 innings with a 9.4 K-BB%, four home runs on six barrels (8.0%) and a 45.3 HardHit% that actually reduces his season rate to 46.4%. However, he’s also increased his ground ball rate over this stretch (62.2%). Despite their current lack of offense (look below), the Orioles still remain solidly in the red (don’t throw it to them) against most pitches. The one exception is the sinker, which they’re a bottom third of the league team against (-0.42 wSI/C). This pitch, just happens to be Webb’s bread and butter (40.5%, 1.2 RV/100, 58 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 113 (114 Home, 62 L7 days)
DEF: -1/-6
B30: 3.80
BSR: 4
Zach Eflin has a 20.2 K-BB% in seven starts for the Orioles (17.2% season). He seems to have altered his cutter, influenced by Corbin Burnes. PitcherList.com had an article about this yesterday.
Opp wRC+: 93 (80 L7 days)
DEF: -2/13
B30: 3.35
BSR: 3
Twins @ Guardians
No dog in this fight either, but some things worth talking about. Simeon Woods Richardson, since striking out seven of 21 Padres, has struck out 10 of 73 batters with 11 walks, as he’s allowed 12 runs in 15.2 innings.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.7 K%, 108 Home, 87 L7 days)
DEF: 4/15
B30: 3.77
BSR: 1
Joey Cantillo has struck out 17 of 46 batters (14.4 SwStr%) since being punished by the Yankees. He’s allowed five hits and a run over 13.2 innings with just one walk. Keep in mind this was the Rays and White Sox though.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 8/20
B30: 3.69
BSR: 1
Braves @ Reds
Chris Sale am good. I say that in Bizarro language because Sale has finally found a way to stay healthy and quality for an ERA title for the first time since 2017. It is bizarre, but in a good way. Get the hell outta here with a 96 Stuff+. He does receive a 59 PB grade on his slider (40.3%, 2.1 RV/100), a pitch the Reds can’t hit in general (-0.49 wSL/C) is bottom quarter of the league.
Opp wRC+: 85 (89 Home)
DEF: -3/-12
B30: 3.41
BSR: 2
Over 27.2 innings Julian Aguiar has a 4.6 K-BB% with 12.1% Barrels/BBE.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24 K%)
DEF: -15/-20
B30: 4.32
BSR: -11
Blue Jays @ Rangers
Kevin Gausman brings a 64 grade fastball (51.1%, 0.3 RV/100) against a bottom five offense against fastballs (-0.42 wFA/C). Over his 153 strikeouts in 29 starts, 41.1% have come in just seven starts (24.1%).
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.4 K%)
DEF: 22/10
B30: 4.38
BSR: 3
After striking out seven of 17 Mariners in his debut, Kumar Rocker has projections below three and a half (FGDC, Steamer, The BAT) and above four and a half (Steamer, ATC). Nothing in between. The wipeout slider grade in his first start goes from 59 to a 39 when PitchingBot includes location. Overall, he had just a 99 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 107 (20.1 K%)
DEF: 25/14
B30: 4.21
BSR: -7
Yankees @ Mariners
With 86 pitches in his second start back from the IL, Clarke Schmidt should be up to a full workload. His 116 Stuff+ in these two starts, matches his 115 mark on the season.
Opp wRC+: 104 (27.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 3/16
B30: 3.66
BSR: -4
Logan Gilbert has failed to complete six innings just five times in 30 starts. His 122 Stuff+ exceeds Schmidt’s score. His K-BB rises to 25.1% at home this year.
Opp wRC+: 121 (10.9 K-BB%, 15.6 HR/FB, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -12/11
B30: 3.77
BSR: -5
Dodgers @ Marlins
After getting clobbered and walking four in Atlanta, Jack Flaherty has a 19.7 K-BB% with the Dodgers, which any team in baseball would have loved to have gotten from him this season, but it’s nearly a 10 point drop his Detroit efforts. Take away his first two Dodger starts against the Pirates and A’s, it’s a 16.2 K-BB%. Remember, the Yankees dumped a trade because of his medicals. Over these last six starts, Flaherty is also down to a 93 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+. On the other side, his fastball (52) is his only above average PB grade, offering a 4.83 Bot ERA over this stretch. The surface results and even most of the underlying ones on the season still look great with all estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.00 ERA, but there are some caution flags being raised. Flaherty’s reverse split also plays a bit into Miami’s lineup too.
Opp wRC+: 91 (89 Road, 78 L7 days)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 4.29
BSR: 1
Edward Cabrera has a 21.5 K-BB% over his last four starts and the most important part of that is that he’s walked just six of his last 93 batters, two of his last 46. We’ve all heard that he has an electric arm, if only he could throw strikes. Now he’s doing that and getting the results with seven runs (four earned) over his last 23.2 innings. Season estimators are all below his 4.55 ERA, dropping as low as a 3.86 xFIP (70.3 LOB%, 14 home runs, 19 barrels). Cabrera’s 102 Stuff+ exceeds Flaherty’s by several points.
Opp wRC+: 114 (110 Road, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -26/-3
B30: 3.52
BSR: 1
Massive offensive edge for the Dodgers and I’m even giving them the starting edge by a large amount, but I just don’t trust their pitching, which is the reason I’ve been on the Marlins (+176) in all three of these games. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Red Sox @ Rays
This might be Brayan Bello (listed by Roster Resource, but no twitter confirmation), who has remained as inconsistent as ever, striking out seven and walking as many over his last two starts. Batters from the left-hand side are within five points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.6 K%)
DEF: -9/-4
B30: 4.09
BSR: 1
Zach Littell hasn’t allowed a run in two starts, striking out nine of 40 batters with a walk over 11 innings. He has a 68 grade splitter (23.1%, -1 RV/100), a pitch the Red Sox don’t like seeing (-0.58 wFS/C). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .316 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA this year though.
Opp wRC+: 107 (24.1 K%, 111 Road, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 7/3
B30: 4.05
BSR: 6
Pirates @ Cardinals
Luis L. Ortiz first three starts: 27.4 K-BB%
Next five starts: 2.6 K-BB%
Last five starts: 13.5 K-BB%
Truth probably something in between, but he had back to back starts against both the Padres and Diamondbacks in that middle five and the other one was the Phillies.
Opp wRC+: 101 (82 L7 days)
DEF: -14/-23
B30: 4.30
BSR: 2
Erick Fedde has a 9.6 K-BB% in eight starts for the Cardinals. His low SwStr% with the White Sox may have been a precursor, but it’s down to 7.5% since the trade with a near double digit walk rate.
Opp wRC+: 83 (24 K%, 81 Road, 68 L7 days - no Cruz last few days)
DEF: 11/13
B30: 3.54
BSR: 0
Phillies @ Mets
Taijuan Walker has walked two of the 35 batters he’s faced in three bullpen outings in September and also struck out two. Two of his first three starts for the Phillies were quality starts this season and then none since. He does not have an estimators below five with his FIP and xERA exceeding his 6.29 ERA. Walker’s 13% Barrels/BBE are almost higher than his 15.7 K%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him and he doesn’t have a pitch reaching a 50 PitcihngBot grade with a 5.18 Bot ERA and 88 Stuff+ (95 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 106 (112 Home, 123 L7 days)
DEF: 10/-4
B30: 3.91
BSR: -7
Luis Severino has just a 12.8 K-BB% on the season, but is up to 20.3% over his last eight starts, in which his velocity is up about half a mph and he’s leaned on his sweeper more (28.9% last five starts). Severino has a 112 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ over this eight start stretch. All four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time exceed a 50 PB grade over this span as well.
Opp wRC+: 104 (87 L7 days)
DEF: -3/6
B30: 3.48
BSR: -1
The play here is Mets over 4.5 runs (+118) and I’m going to make that play as long as the plus sign precedes the price.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 41 runs (39 earned) over his last 46.1 innings. His 17.5 K-BB% is right on his season 17.3% mark over this span. He’s struck out at least 10 batters twice during this run, but struck out none with three walks against these Brewers last time out. He’s allowed 15 barrels (10.1%), but just a 38.3 HardHit%. The key components here are a .415 BABIP and 55.6 LOB%. That’s insane and entirely unsustainable. I’m not saying he doesn’t have any problems (LHBs .345 wOBA, .337 xwOBA with RHBs below .290), but I don’t think it’s as bad as it seems. He has a 4.81 ERA without an estimator reaching four. Pitch modeling still loves his stuff (107 Stuff+ & Pitching+ without a PitchingBot grade below 52) and there’s been no fallout over this stretch. In fact, Pfaadt has a 108 Stuff+ and Pitching+ over this patch with no PitchingBot grades below 54.
Opp wRC+: 108 (108 L7 days)
DEF: 25/27
B30: 3.76
BSR: 3
Some good, some bad though 23 starts for Tobias Myers, but a lot of inconsistency. The one thing we can say for sure is that his 3.07 ERA is mostly the product of an unsustainable 82.9 LOB%. His 15.9 K-BB% is fine, as are the 8.0% Barrels/BBE and 39.3 HardHit%, but they don’t produce a single estimator within 0.9 runs of that ERA (3.99 xFIP). Batters from the left-hand side have a .328 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .275 wOBA, but .313 xwOBA. With a 4.50 Bot ERA, Myers has 91 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 113 (20 K%, 109 Road, 143 L7 days)
DEF: 25/21
B30: 3.43
BSR: 13
As uncomfortable as it may seem, when two pitchers are doing unsustainable things in opposite directions, we what the right thing to do is (usually). We also have the added dimension of the Brewers clinching tonight. They may not do the other teams fighting for a post-season spot the disservice of throwing a hangover lineup out there against a Wild Card contender and still have things to play for themselves, but there could be some effect and it wouldn’t be positive. All else fails, the Arizona offense could just smash their way out of it. F5 (100) has more value than full game.
Nationals @ Cubs
Patrick Corbin has allowed 11 runs over his last 29.2 innings and seven of them were surrendered in one game. He’s done this with a 21.5 K-BB% and the common theme is a spike his cutter usage to 27.5% (67 PB grade). The 47.4 HardHit% on the season and 45% over this stretch is still a problem, but not nearly as much of one if he’s going to more than double his K-BB%. I don’t expect him to sustain this level of success, but it sure is something for a pitcher who thought his career was dead. Maybe he didn’t, but we all did.
Opp wRC+: 99 (154 L7 days)
DEF: -19/7
B30: 3.80
BSR: 5
Javier Assad is still living in Bartolo Colon territory (which is slightly higher than Adam Wainwright territory) with his 3.04 K/SwStr. However, he has just a 14.3 K% over his last 12 starts and a double digit K-BB% in just one of his last eight starts. I’m not entirely buying into his estimators due to that strikeout rate, but they’re still all more than a run above his 3.27 ERA with a 4.49 FIP the only one below four and a half. Same-handed batters are within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Assad, who doesn’t have a PB grade exceeding 47.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20.4 K%, 90 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: 14/27
B30: 4.12
BSR: 3
I don’t know how to further justify the WAS +160 play. Corbin actually only has one estimator above Assad’s best. The Nationals are putting a better defensive product on the field, even if the Cubs are much better and they have had the better pen, not having to use any of their top guys in blowouts against the Mets the last two days.
Angels @ Astros
Jose Suarez has started one game for the Angels, facing 14 batters, but has been a multi-inning reliever, throwing 42.1 innings this year. He’s struck out nine of his last 25 batters in two outings against theses Astros and the Twins without allowing a run and walking just one. Still, his best estimator on the season is a 4.13 SIERA. They could get three or four innings out of him if they wish.
Opp wRC+: 111 (18.9 K%, 118 Home)
DEF: -22/-7
B30: 3.72
BSR: -7
For all the talk about how well Yusei Kikuchi has been pitching for the Astros, he only has two quality starts in eight tries. That’s because he’s only completed six innings three times, but that’s been each of his last three starts with a pair of seven inning outings. He does have an impressive 24.6 K-BB% since the trade, but is still allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a 45% HardHit% in a Houston uniform. The Astros do have him throwing more sliders (37.6%, 57 PB grade, but 0.8 RV/100) and fewer curveballs (7.4%, 64 grade, but 0.2 RV/100).
Opp wRC+: 94 (87 Home, 91 L7 days)
DEF: 2/8
B30: 3.76
BSR: -7
Ended up with at least a little something on every game. Wasn't sure I'd have enough content otherwise. Obviously, 11 Word pages later, I needn't have worried.
DFS Notes
A six game Thursday night slate includes three protected environments.
Rays: roof don’t open
Brewers: usually open with decent weather
Astros: almost always closed
Otherwise, it’s in the mid-80s in St Louis with a light wind out toward the right field pole, mid-70s at Citi Field with a 10 mph wind in from center and similar temps at Wrigley with a near double digit wind in from the right field pole.
5+ runs: Blue Jays
4.5+ runs: Cubs, Cardinals
Below 4: Pirates, Brewers, Phillies, Nationals…Angels (2.83)
I’m running fairly late and this is a rough slate, so we’re going to skip most of the exposition today and state that this slate depends on a few things.
1 – Will the Brewers run out their hangover lineup? If so, Brandon Pfaadt gets a big boost and may be the second best pitcher on the board. (Kikuchi is my top pitcher no matter what.) Remember that Pfaadt has had two double digit K efforts during this slump and the underlying numbers are still intact. If not, you may want to hedge with a Brewer stack or two in multi-entry.
2 – Do you believe in the Corbin Cutter? If you believe he’s an improved pitcher, you’re moving off Cubs bats, which I’d expect would be popular tonight. If you’re not buying it and going on full season numbers, then Cubs bats top the board.
3 – Will Lindor be back tonight? Do the Mets need him to beat up on Taijuan Walker. The 10 mph wind in from center is a bit disappointing, as this would be a great attack spot otherwise and is still probably fine.
4 – If not Pfaadt and Kikuchi, then who? Yup, it’s a lot of yuck after Kikuchi and (maybe) Pfaadt. My choice for an SP2 on DK otherwise would be Littell. Why? It’s a negative run environment and the Boston lineup has been fairly stable. Six of nine projected exceed a 22 K% v RHP with three in the middle exceeding 29%.
That’s about it for today because this is a really small, difficult slate with some confusing variables.
Update 5:10 EST
Added STL o4.5 (+108) - Mid-80s w/ light wind out to left in neutral run environment - Ortiz 4.47 SIERA 4.41 xERA - STL 103/101 wRC+ Hm/v RHP - PIT poor def and worst pen estimators MLB L30 days
Update 6:20 EST
I see I forgot to list the Astros as a 5 run offense above.
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