Let's start with the five still unconfirmed pitchers via MLB.com at 7:15 PM EST. I was able to just about confirm two of Roster Resources guestimates via Twitter. Then, the Red Sox say Tanner Houck "may" start, the Pirates and White Sox have nothing and RR doesn't even list a CWS starter.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Random Notes:
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 74 Stuff+ grade. Could be a high scoring one in Colorado, but I want to see the weather and make sure Marte is in the lineup against a LHP.
Haydon Birdsong has a massive reverse split (RHBs .355 wOBA, .376 xwOBA). I'm sure the Orioles will do something to counter that and not run out eight LHBs, as they normally project against RHPs. The same can be said for Bailey Ober in Cleveland.
Every estimator Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease have are above three, but below three and a half.
Dodgers @ Marlins
Five of the 15 batters Landon Knack faced last time out scored. The 16.8 K-BB% is fine. The 11.3% Barrels/BBE and 43.8 HardHit% are troubling, though he has just a 4.04 xERA and 4.00 SIERA, though the dERA (4.57) exceeds four and a half and the FIP (4.99) is even higher with two-thirds of his barrels leaving the yard. Knack generates just 31.3% of his contact on the ground and has some issues with RHBs (.355 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) with a decent fastball (45.1%, 54 PB grade) and slider (23.3%, 52), but no other pitch reaching even a 40 PB grade. This is the profile of someone who should have platoon issues, but not reverse platoon ones. The result is a 4.77 Bot ERA and a surprising 103 Stuff+ that drops to a 98 Pithcing+ despite the 6.5 BB%.
Opp wRC+: 90 (88 Home)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 4.23
BSR:1
Ryan Weathers last pitched on a major league mound over three months ago and the shame of it is that he was having his first taste of success at this level before hitting the IL with a 22.6 K-BB% and ERA/FIP/xFIP combo all below three over his last seven starts. Striking out 13 of 36 AAA batters in a pair of AAA rehab starts suggests he’s ready to pick right back up where he let off. Weathers actually decreased to a 90 Stuff+ over that stretch, but increased to a 101 Pitching+. On the season, a 4.07 xERA is the worst of his estimators, matching a 4.08 Bot ERA, but April was a troubling month before he turned it around. Hopefully we’re looking at the pitcher we saw in May and the early part of June here.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.9 K%, 109 Road)
DEF: -26/-3
B30: 3.44
BSR: 0
I’m currently watching both teams blow apart their bullpens in a boat race in Miami on Tuesday night. Miller got smoked from the get go. The Marlins scored multiple runs in four of the first six innings. The bullpen is not a Dodger strength this year and I believe the Marlins (+154) have the better starting pitcher here too. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Nationals @ Mets
DJ Herz doesn’t go very deep in games. No more than five innings in four straight, but has allowed one run or less in three of those starts. He also hasn’t struck out fewer than five in six straight starts and has a 19.9 K-BB% over 80.1 major league innings now. The flaw in his game is…well, with a 79.8 Z-Contact% and 34.3 HardHit%, the flaw is the 37.9 GB% that’s led to him allowing 8.3% Barrels/BBE anyway. Yet, a 3.28 xERA is the best of his estimators, all below his 3.70 ERA, except for a matching 3.74 FIP with 11 of his 18 barrels leaving the yard. Herz really has no split with batters from either side of the plate between a .283 and .302 wOBA and xwOBA. He doesn’t have the best pitch modeling. A 44 grade slider (17.9%, -0.4 RV/100) is concerning, but not really a pitch the Mets hit well. His 4.57 Bot ERA is a bit behind a 98 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 118 (111 Home)
DEF: -19/3
B30: 3.74
BSR: -5
Since being blasted for seven runs by the Orioles, Jose Quintana has allowed just two runs (one earned) over his last 25 innings. He’s done this with a 9.5 K-BB% that matches his season mark (9.4%), but just two barrels with a 29.2 HardHit%, bringing his season rate down to 37.2%. That’s something, but the heavy lifting is being done by unsustainable numbers like a .250 BABIP, 92 LOB% and 0.0 HR/FB. He now has a 3.91 ERA with all estimators exceeding four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .312 and .336 wOBA and xwOBA against him and Quintana doesn’t have a PB grade reaching 50, meriting a 5.22 Bot ERA, along with an 82 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 88 (20.1 K%, 7.5 HR/FB, 91 Road)
DEF: -3/-7
B30: 3.52
BSR: 2
The Mets offense, defense and base running all take a hit without Francisco Lindor in the lineup and now with a two game WC lead on the Braves, I don’t expect them to rush him back here. I expect Quintana to regress, though Mets pitchers have been beating estimators all year for some unfathomable reason. His recent numbers are insane though, while Herz could be legit in short spurts. He was bombed by the Mets in his major league debut, but then struck out 10 of them next time around. Give me the Nationals F5 (+140).
Another Random Note:
LHBs have a .329 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against Sonny Gray, more than 25 points above RHBs in each instance, but the Pirates don't have the personnel outside of Cruz and Reynolds to exploit this. If Joey Wentz is truly starting, as Roster Resource suggests, I have the Cardinals as about two to one favorites both for the game and first half. I could play the rare large favorite tomorrow if that is the case and the line (-168) doesn't move.
Yankees @ Mariners
Nestor Cortes has an impressive 17.5 K-BB% with 8% Barrels/BBE allowed. However, he also has a 44.1 HardHit% and that K-BB drops to 15.2% on the road. On the road, RHBs have a .372 wOBA against him with 12 of his 24 home runs allowed this year. This is obviously not a hitter friendly park in any sense (though it does play a bit more power friendly with the roof open), but you get the gist. Overall, Cortes has been perfectly averaging in his pitch modeling with PB grades from 51 to 57 on this three most frequently used pitches and a 100 Stuff+ with a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (26 K%, 140 L7 days)
DEF: 3/13
B30: 3.53
BSR: -2
Bryce Miller has an impressive 18.2 K-BB%, though with 9.9% Barrels/BBE with a 41.2 HardHit%. That projects a 3.79 xERA that matches his SIERA. Both, along with all his other estimators more than half a run above his 3.12 ERA. A .244 BABIP is the main culprit, but only six of his 19 barrels have left the yard at home, where he also has a 22.8 K-BB%. Perhaps he feels he can pitch more aggressively at home, while being forgiven for most of his mistakes by the ballpark. On the whole, Miller has a fastball, sinker and splitter all exceeding a 55 PB grade, supporting a 3.20 Bot ERA, along with an equally impressive 112 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+. Left-handed batters have a 90 point lower wOBA against him at home (.251) than they do on the road (.341).
Opp wRC+: 121 (10.9 K-BB%, 15.6 HR/FB, 116 Road, 70 L7 days)
DEF: -12/13
B30: 3.65
BSR: -7
The easy part of this is the home/road splits for the starting pitchers, but, interestingly, it also seems the Mariners put a better defensive team on the field against LHP. I’ve found a bit more value in the F5 line (+105) because Miller rarely goes deep into games, though efficiency at home gets him there more often. Still he hasn’t faced more than 23 batters in a start since July.
That's all for tonight. Daily fantasy notes on a...(checks notes)...12 game Wednesday slate starting at 6:35 PM EST.
Update 1:05 EST
One small update before getting to DFS. Justin Steele has had at least six strikeouts in six straight (not counting a rain shortened outing). The wind is slightly blowing in at Wrigley. The first five in the OAK LU all exceed a 23 K% v LHP. Over 5.5 Ks (-104)
Daily Fantasy Notes
Wednesday night’s 12 game slate includes cooler temperatures and five protected environments.
Miami: almost always closed with no disclosure when it is open
Tampa Bay: da roof don’t open
Milwaukee: could go either way, call the hotline
Texas: almost always closed (open only six times this year)
Seattle: open 75% of the time, but without notice
We have the potential for some weather impact on this slight with games in Baltimore and New York on rain watch. Best hitting weather may be in Kansas City (low 80s, nearly 10 mph wind out to left field corner). Best pitching weather may be in New York (low 70s, double digit wind in from LC).
5+ runs: nobody
4.5+ runs: Dodgers, Cardinals Braves
4 runs or less: everyone else except the Orioles
Below 3 runs: nobody
Top Pitchers
Briefly mentioned in the notes above, Sonny Gray is my top Wednesday night arm and a strong value as either the third or fourth most expensive one. He’s tied for the highest strikeout rate on the slate (30.2%) with Dylan Cease and our number two, who has a much tougher matchup. Six in the projected lineup exceed a league average strikeout rate against RHP and if Oneil Cruz is out again, it takes away some strikeout potential, but also one of the two LHBs who can do damage against Gray’s large split. He’s totaled three straight quality starts with one run in each and has struck out 16 of his last 48 batters.
Tarik Skubal, the most expensive pitcher on either site, is my number two and this says quite a bit, considering he’s pitching in the most hitter friendly run environment against a contact prone offense. As mentioned, he is tied for the top strikeout rate on the slate (30.2%) and has allowed more than two runs in just two of his last 12 starts without a single estimator reaching three.
Aaron Nola is my number three overall tonight and his greatest appeal is workload. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch, not even finishing five innings in two straight starts, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) with four home runs…but only two barrels! Nola has 11 quality starts with seventh inning outs, which is more than one-third of his starts. There are also four in the regular Milwaukee lineup against RHP exceeding a 25 K% against RHP.
Like yesterday, there are a number of strong pitchers in tough matchups like Cease and his opponent, Framber Valdez. Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee in Cleveland as well. My fourth favorite pitcher and SP2 on DraftKings is Spencer Schwellenbach, who is coming off a nice bounce back effort against the Dodgers with a quality start and six strikeouts, after getting roughed up by Toronto. Cincinnati is a tougher park, with a league average strikeout rate throughout the lineup (projected), but only two batters below a 20.5 K% against RHP.
Additional Pitching Notes: Alec Marsh is interesting because he does have upside at a low price ($6.8K DK), but also throws too many fastballs right down the pipe and is prone to barrels. 9.8%. He did strike out a season high 11 batters last time out and has a credible 15.7 K-BB% on the season, but does conflict with one of my lineups. There’s justification to exposure on both sides of this matchup. Bowden Francis brought his second no hitter into the ninth inning in less than a month last time out, but with just a single strikeout. Dean Kremer is another cheap pitcher with barrel issues (9.6%) and the same walk rate, but a league average strikeout rate in a high strikeout spot. Just two projected Giants are below a 25 K% vs RHP this year. We also have to beware of potential rain in that spot. Bryce Miller is a tough pay up (exceeds $9K) in a tough matchup for a guy who rarely faces more than 23 batters. Freddy Peralta is within $200 of $9K on either site, but just so volatile. Nestor Cortes does suffer a decline on the road, but still has an above average K-BB with a significant park upgrade at a reasonable cost. Ryan Pepiot has talent, but just hasn’t shown much of it lately. In a pitcher friendly environment, six of nine projected Red Sox have a 23.5+ K% vs RHP. Tanner Houck would be interesting for $8K on DK if we were not concerned with the injury that pulled him from his last start and almost caused him to miss this one.
Top Pens: Orioles (stunning, but true by 30 day estimators), Padres, Tigers, Braves, Brewers
Bottom Pens: Blue Jays, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rangers
Workload Issues: Jason Foley (34 – 3 straight), Tyler Holton (73 – 3 of L5) – Lucas Erceg (35 Tuesday) – Jhoan Duran (30 Tuesday), Griffin Jax (29 L2), Cole Sands (50 – 2 of L3) – Fernando Cruz (41 Tuesday) – Dennis Santana (43 – 2 of L3) – Robert Suarez (39 – 3 straight), Tanners Scott (40 – 2 of L3), Jason Adam (44 – 3 straight)
Offense
I’ve found myself drawn to three offenses tonight:
Tigers (3.97) – First four in projected order (Meadows/Carpenter/Vierling/Greene) all exceed a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO v RHP and 135 wRC+ L30 days and we mentioned Marsh’s meatballs. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .353 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Kansas City is the sneakiest high run environment in baseball.
Cardinals (4.68 – 2nd) – LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Jake Woodford with RHBs above a.325 too. Winn (95, .093, 84) gets the nod as a cheap, leadoff shortstop, but Donovan, Nootbaar and Burleson all exceed a 110 wRC+ v RHP and are cheap.
Braves (4.61 – 3rd) – Park upgrade. Most power friendly park. While Junis has held batters from either side of the plate below a .275 wOBA in a small starting sample, Statcast pushes them above a .310 xwOBA and we covered the ability to attack the Cincinnati pen above. Matt Olson (102, .185, 150) is actually the hottest Atlanta bat over the last month and only one above a 110 wRC+ among those projected. Jorge Soler (110, .190, 106), Michael Harris (83, .141, 85) look good here too. All three homered last night.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Kerry Carpenter
2 – Juan Soto (183, .292, 132) – Park be damned. Soto popped his 40th last night in Seattle. Miller is much better against LHBs at home, but that is still his weaker side.
3 – Bobby Witt (138, .205, 124) – Matchup proof. Maybe not worth paying up for against Skubal (RHBs .258 wOBA, .268 xwOBA), but still playable.
4 – Marcell Ozuna (154, .267, 108) – Should have been included in ATL bats above, despite the long HR drought.
5 – Riley Greene
Update 2:40 EST
A quick break in the action to play the over (10.5 -118) in Colorado. Mentioned at the top, ERod's 74 Stuff+. The best estimator for either pitcher is Gomber's 4.49 xFIP. It's 80 degrees with a light wind out to left. Arizona is a beast of an offense against LHP at full strength and are an elite base running team too. COL has bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Top Value Bats
(FD) Carpenter, Burleson, Meadows, Jonathan Aranda, Nootbaar
(DK) Aranda, Donovan, Nootbaar, Carpenter, Burleson
A few on the name above not touched on earlier. Aranda (113, .171, 138) costs less than $2.5K against Houck (LHBs .266 wOBA, but .318 xwOBA) and a poor Boston pen that just missed our list.
Additional Notes
Right-handed batters exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Birdsong. What will the Orioles do? Only Rivera is projected from the right side. Left-handed batters have a .331 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against Schwellenbach. That’s very dangerous in this park…if the Reds had the LHBs to exploit him.
My top rated pure power bats (ISO and HRs and stuff) are Judge, Soto, Elly De La Cruz and Ozuna. Takes park, weather, opposing pitcher and own ISO split into account.
Best combos to run on tonight are Nola/whoever, Herz (or anybody)/Ruiz, Bradford/Heim. Toughest Woodford/whoever, Pepiot/whoever, Kremer/Rutschman or McCann, Knack/Smith.
Top running threats (sprint speed, pitcher hold, catcher throw) are Joey Loperfido, George Spring & Ernie Clement (good sprint speed, poor pitcher holding, catcher throwing), Jose Iglesias (good sprint speed worst throwing catcher).
That's it for today. Further updates if things change.
Update 3:55 EST
No surprises for LAD/MIA, but the line did not move an inch from +154. Would alternately like MIA o3.5 runs.
Update 4:15 EST
No Bregman or Arraez in San Diego. Actually lowers HOU K rates with Dubon.
Update 4:20 EST
Guardians do add Fry & Noel, but still six LHBs against Ober's reverse split. Also increases his K potential. Buxton and Jeffers out for Twins.
Update 4:35 EST
Quite a bit going on in Baltmore, mostly on the San Francisco side. A bit of a lineup shuffle, especially at the bottom. The two most notable absences are Chapman and Casali. Conforto back in, which makes some sense, considering the matchup and park. On the home side, I thought they would make some concessions for Birdsong's large reverse split. The only one is McCann behind the plate. Guess they figure he'll only go through twice. Or maybe the switch hitters will bat right-handed.
Update 4:45 EST
Just two LHBs for ATL. Junis a slight reverse split.
Update 4:50 EST
Diaz out for Rays. I would be more interested in the Houck side of things if I knew he were healthy.
Update 5 EST
Ruiz out. Millas has triple the strikeout rate against LHP, but batting towards the end of the lineup, only adds 0.1 Ks for Quintana. The real effect is that Millas has a much better arm than Ruiz. The downward spiraling J.D. Martinez sits against a LHP.
Update 5:20 EST
Wenceel Perez & McKinstry in for Vierling and Keith.
Update 5:30 EST
Roof confirmed closed in Texas and open in Milwaukee. Not sure what the Brewers are going to do after clinching the division. They're still playing for home field and would probably like to beat the Phillies here. Nola could get a boost depending on this lineup.
Final Update 5:45 EST:
With the slate a half hour earlier, wasn't anticipating any issues outside Seattle with no other late games, but seems like the Pirates and Brewers don't want to post either. At least the St Louis lineup is as expected.
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