We're back to the new format for Tuesday, only covering games or pitchers of interest, to be followed by the more compact version daily fantasy notes in the afternoon.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Dodgers @ Marlins
Since the season started so brilliantly for Bobby Miller in St Louis, throwing six two hit innings with 11 strikeouts, he’s had one start below a 4.50 ERA and that’s five two run innings in Arizona on July 2nd, where he walked one fewer than he struck out. I don’t think SIERAs or xFIPs actually run as high as his 8.17 ERA because they assume a league average contact profile, but his 8.6 K-BB% alone generates contact neutral estimators above four and a half, while the 12.3% Barrels/BBE, 48.5 HardHit% and 27.9 HR/FB send the xERA and FIP spiraling above seven. With batters from either side of the plate within a .395 to .410 wOBA and xwOBA range, the contact profile is saying he just about deserves most of his troubles. If you squint, you can see some minor brightness in Miller’s 113 Stuff+ mark, but even that drops to a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (87 Home, 52 L7 days)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 4.29
BSR: 1
I’m not going to try to cherry pick this. Darren McCaughan has not been good. It’s only been 29.1 innings, but a 2.1 K-BB% with 8.2% Barrels/BBE and a 39.1 HardHit% doesn’t give him an estimator below a 5.78 SIERA. That’s pretty disgusting with batters from either side of the plate above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA. However, his 7.06 ERA, which matches Miller’s xERA, is also above all of his estimators. The pitch modeling (87 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+) is less impressive without a PB grade exceeding 50, but he and Miller are separated by 0.03 runs of Bot ERA, both above 4.70.
Opp wRC+: 114 (110 Road, 128 L7 days)
DEF: -26/-3
B30: 3.42
BSR: 1
This is a disgusting way to start the day, but all the Dodgers have here is offense. As large as that gap may be, it doesn’t make a team a large road favorite alone (Marlins +154), especially when the other team appears to have a much better bullpen. We thought it was smoke and mirrors immediately after the trade deadline, when the Marlins shipped all their top relievers out, but they’ve sustained their pen estimators. These are the fifth best pen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. If you want to tell me Miller is better than McCaughan, that’s fine. He certainly is over the long run (Miller may be pitching hurt). If you want to tell me he’s much better right now, then we agree to disagree. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Red Sox @ Rays
Three straight quality starts with a total of four runs allowed in 18 innings and a 21.9 K-BB% for Nick Pivetta that’s below his 23.9% season mark. The 10% Barrels/BBE can be a problem, but with a hard contact rate below 40% and the 29.5 K% with few walks, it’s not as much of one as it would be for most other pitchers. He’s also allowed just one barrel with a 27.7 HardHit% over this three start stretch. With 25 of his 33 barrels leaving the park, Pivetta’s 4.24 ERA is more than half a run above all non-FIP estimators. I recently read that the sweeper changes the arm angle from the fastball, making it easier for batters to recognize, which may be the reason for the reverse split greater than 50 points this year. That doesn’t take away from the 133 Stuff+ or 108 Pitching+ marks with Pitching Bot grades between 57 and 62 on his fastball, sweeper and curve.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.6 K%, 80 L7 days)
DEF: -9/-4
B30: 4.11
BSR: 1
Shane Baz has three quality starts (two of seven innings) over his last five starts, but with just a 10.2 K-BB% that matches his 10.5% on the season. He has lowered his hard contact rate to 42.2% on the season though with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE. Even with that, Baz has a 3.74 xERA that’s nearly half a run above his 3.28 ERA with no other estimators below four with a .247 BABIP and 79.1 LOB%. Despite batters from either side of the plate not exceeding a .310 wOBA or xwOBA against him, this was not the guy we expected to see. On the one hand, a 113 Stuff+ suggests he still has the arsenal within him, but a 101 Pitching+ with a single pitch exceeding a 46 PB grade (4.46 Bot ERA) support the other underlying numbers.
Opp wRC+: 108 (24.1 K%, 112 Road)
DEF: 7/3
B30: 4.03
BSR: 6
The market seems to be severely undervaluing Nick Pivetta, as I find myself drawn to his price nearly every start and a lot of times it’s not even that close to what I’m projecting (-106 tonight). The difference is that I’m usually constrained to an F5 in order to avoid the Boston pen, but with the better full game price and nearly equally poor Tampa Bay pen estimators last 30 days (they’re separated only by the Rockies), I’m along for the roller coaster ride this time.
Tigers @ Royals
Over his last 45 innings, only 21 of the 26 runs Casey Mize has allowed have been earned with unearned runs in four of his nine starts. Often, when it’s one start with a bunch of earned runs, its’ more likely due to pitcher fault, like a home run and lots of damage done after an error with two outs. Mize has just an 11.6 K-BB%, but 47.9 GB% that keeps his barrels reasonable (8.2%), despite a 44.5 HardHit%. With all estimators within half a run of a 4.47 ERA, it’s back end of the rotation stuff, but not back end of the rotation Stuff+ (107 with a 102 Pitching+). The curveball (7.8%, -1.2 RV/100, 38 PB grade) is his only PB grade below 50 with some real adoration for the sinker (7.9%, 0.0 RV/100, 66 PB grade). The pitches he throws most often are between 51 and 59.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.9 K%)
DEF: 15/13
B30: 3.36
BSR: 6
Cole Ragans has allowed four or five runs in four of his last nine starts, though also with five of the 25 unearned. In his case, three of them came in one start though. The bigger problem over that span is a 9.5 BB%, though not that big of a problem with a 31 K%, which is how he’s been able to sustain his season 21.2 K-BB% over this span. Dropping your hard hit rate to 29.5% also helps and has him down to 35.6% on the season. However, the walks have kept him below six innings in four of five of those nine starts, including when he walked four of these Tigers. All estimators are still within one-third of a run of his 3.32 ERA, holding RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA, but the majority of the Detroit hitting prospects bat left-handed, the side Ragans has more trouble with (.323 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). PitchingBot grades between 51 and 61, but at least 60 on the only two pitches he throws more than 15% of the time exude dominance, with the 109 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ marks not far behind.
Opp wRC+: 91 (91 Road)
DEF: 28/22
B30: 3.91
BSR: 8
The Detroit bullpen (third best estimators L30 days) is what makes this line (+145) a bit too high. Detroit hangs with Kansas City in every other aspect besides starting pitching and that’s pretty important, but gets some of it back with a bullpen that has been excelling against a bottom half of the league one which will most likely be entering this game sometime in the sixth inning.
Athletics @ Cubs
It’s not like the second coming of Hudson, Mulder and Zito, but the A’s are producing some competent middle to back end starting pitching like Estes, Sears, maybe J.T. Ginn and this guy, Mitch Spence. He doesn’t necessarily pitch deep into games (six innings just 33% of his starts, yet seven innings last time), but has a near average 12.3 K-BB% with an average contact profile and nearly half his contact (49.4%) on the ground. In fact, his 4.33 ERA exceeds all estimators ranging from a 3.76 dERA to a 4.18 SIERA. Pitch modeling is even slightly more encouraging with a 3.73 Bot ERA and 100 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 102 (139 L7 days)
DEF: -39/-16
B30: 4.14
BSR: 5
Jordan Wicks has struck out just 14 of his last 104 batters with nine walks. He hadn’t allowed a single barrel in that span until the three he suffered last time out. It’s still a small sample at 41 innings, but with a 4.39 dERA his only estimator below four and a half, it’s been a lost season for the former first round pick. A 100 Pitching+ and 3.83 Bot ERA share some optimism of better seasons ahead, but with just a 93 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 14/27
B30: 4.32
BSR: 2
Massive defensive edge for the Cubs here, but with the A’s competitive everywhere else plus having the better starting pitcher this year by far, why are they +136 dogs?
Phillies @ Brewers
Eight straight quality starts with a total of 11 runs (10 earned) allowed for Zach Wheeler, who boasts a 21.1 K-BB% and 33.6 HardHit% with his worst estimator a 3.51 dERA. He does have some issue with LHBs (.314 wOBA, .318 xwOBA). The only pitches he throws more than 10% of the time (fastball, sinker, slider) receive PitchingBot grades greater than 60 with a 2.95 Bot ERA, 106 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 108 (121 L7 days)
DEF: 10/-4
B30: 4.02
BSR: 3
Frankie Montas has struck out 18 of his last 45 batters. The Brewers have him throwing more sinkers and a bit harder. It hasn’t led to any increase in ground balls (40%), but has improved his K-BB (17.2% with the Brewers, 11.6% season). On the season, Montas has a 4.49 ERA that matches his SIERA (4.49) and xERA (4.48) and is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators except for a 4.94 dERA because nobody knows how the hell that’s calculated. The Brewers would be thrilled to decrease that half a run, which he may do at this pace, and improve his standing with LHBs (.363 wOBA, .370 xwOBA). Montas throws all manner of fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter, splitter) along with a slider and all range from 49 to 52 PitchingBot grades with a 98 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 25/21
B30: 3.41
BSR: -1
I’m not going to BS you and tell you Montas is anywhere near as good as Wheeler now. I’m still giving the latter a full run edge. However, the Brewers are at home and might have every other edge in this game, including very large defensive and bullpen ones, which creates some value at +124.
White Sox @ Angels
Over 41.1 innings, Davis Martin has posted a competent if not quite league average 12.8 K-BB% with 9.8% Barrels/BBE despite 47.5% of his contact on the ground with a 38.8 HardHit%. This creates estimators that are all above, but within a quarter of a run of his 4.14 ERA. He has a 46 point reverse split, but Statcast reverses that by 36 points. Martin’s pitch modeling is interesting though. He owns a marginal 4.25 Bot ERA, but a strongly graded changeup (60 PB), cutter (55) and slider (54), along with a 104 Stuff+ that does revert down to a 99 Pitching+. He could be an interesting young arm.
Opp wRC+: 88 (92 Home)
DEF: -30/-22
B30: 3.94
BSR: -8
Griffin Canning is coming off a 10 run outing with three home runs and three walks. He’s allowed 44 barrels on the season (8.9%) with just an 8.6 K-BB%, which does not create a single estimator below four and a half. In fact, his best is a 4.78 xFIP. Left-handed batters have reached a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs at exactly .326. His changeup (55) is Canning’s only PB grade reaching 50, creating a 5.15 Bot ERA to coincide with an 87 Stuff+ mark.
Opp wRC+: 76 (9.0 HR/FB, 74 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: -22/-4
B30: 3.84
BSR: 0
Looking at the lineup the Angels have been running out there over the last week, you could argue that they’re not much better than the White Sox, who finally got Yoan Moncada back and I believe the White Sox also have the pitching edge in this game. There’s really nowhere that the Angels blow them out. Maybe defensively, but I was shocked to find I had this game close to even before the home field advantage, which makes +142 look great.
Mariners @ Yankees
Luis Gil has struck out 12 of 43 batters since returning from the IL with four walks. He’s had of streaks of dominance, but also has often looked lost, taking a long route to estimators between a 3.66 xERA and 4.29 dERA with lots of strikeouts (27.5%), walks (12.3%), barrels (9.3%), but not too much hard contact overall (36%). Gil’s 110 Stuff+ exceeds Woo’s 104 mark, but not his 101 Pitching+, while all three pitches are between 50 and 53 PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 104 (27.5 K%, 140 L7 days)
DEF: 3/13
B30: 3.48
BSR: -4
Over his last eight starts, Bryan Woo has a 20.9 K-BB% with just 6.8% Barrels/BBE and a 34.2 HardHit%, but the most encouraging development during this stretch is that he’s recorded seventh inning outs in all but one of those starts, having not faced fewer than 23 pitches. The Mariners still have only let him hit 90 pitches twice over this span with a high of 94, but he’s just that efficient with a 2.45 xERA that nearly matches his 2.38 ERA, though other estimators run as high as a 3.85 SIERA. As mentioned, Gil has the better Pitching+ score, but Woo has the superior 108 Pitching+ with a 63 grade fastball and 72 grade sinker supporting a 2.79 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 121 (10.9 K-BB%, 15.6 HR/FB, 116 Road, 91 L7 days)
DEF: -12/11
B30: 3.67
BSR: -7
Gil can be dominant, but Woo is more efficiently and consistently so and watch out for that Seattle offense, which has been much improved since Edgar Martinez took over hitting coach duties. I’m showing just slightly more F5 value (-104).
That’s all for Monday night. Be back with daily fantasy notes starting in about 12 hours.
---Daily Fantasy Notes ---
A 10 game Tuesday slate includes three protected environments and some moderate weather impact:
Milwaukee: there’s a hotline on the website, often open if it’s 70 without rain risk.
Texas: almost always closed, though a slightly larger chance of being open with cooler weather
Seattle: open 75% of the time, but without disclosure
It only reaches 80 degrees in Kansas City tonight with west coast parks not even reaching 70. Double digit winds out to right center at Coors (low 70s) and in from right at Citi Field (mid-70s).
Toronto is the only team without a confirmed pitcher. It’s expected to be Chris Bassitt, but last time he went unconfirmed this late in the day (last start) he was pushed back a day.
6+ runs: Diamondbacks
5+ runs: Rockies
4.5+ runs: Cubs
4.24 to 4.42 runs: Royals, Angels, Cardinals, Mets
< 4 runs: everybody else (Nationals 3.26)
TOP PITCHERS
The top two are very easy and straight forward. I rate Ragans a bit ahead of Wheeler. Lots of strikeouts in the projected Detroit lineup. I asked above if they’ll change that, considering Ragans’ reverse split? I think he’s far enough ahead of Wheeler that it wouldn’t change my decision, but it’s not a massive lead.
Wheeler has four batters in the projected Milwaukee lineup that exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year and it’s four straight in the middle of the lineup. Milwaukee (roof open or closed0 is actually a slight park upgrade for Wheeler. See more on both pitchers in the game notes above. As in all things, price matters and I keep the daily fantasy part separate from the team plays. I like the price on the Brewers at +124 and Tigers +145, despite recognizing the very talented pitchers they’re facing.
The rest of the slate is where it gets disgusting. Every otherwise decent pitcher (Woo, Brown, King, Eovaldi) have terrible matchups. Gil is in an upgraded park, but with some risk and facing a much improved offense. I think this may be a good spot to fade the public. However, we still need an SP2 on DK. I ultimately chose Frankie Montas ($7.4K). I do worry about some of the top LHBs, but I do not fear a lineup with Nick Castellanos hitting cleanup all that much. He dominates RHBs and may be hitting his peak. It’s a risk, but so is almost every other arm on the slate.
If I knew Bassitt was pitching, he might be an option. The Rangers don’t have the left-handed prowess to exploit his greatest weakness. Davis Martin ($6.5K) is an interesting punt option against that injury riddled lineup and I guess we can say the same for Canning against the White Sox. Eleven of the 16 runs Lance Lynn has allowed over his last seven starts came in one outing. He has just a 12.5 K-BB% and 25 GB% over that span with 15 barrels though. The matchup is really the only draw. Jordan Wick is cheap and has some upside, that he hasn’t shown this year, against a strikeout prone, but under-rated offense. Slight wind blowing in day at Wrigley, which helps Mitch Spence too, but $7K may be where I draw the line for him in a marginal matchup.
The last pitcher worth mentioning is Tylor Megill. Sure, he has blowup potential and only three projected Nationals are higher than the league average in strikeout rate against RHP, but two of them (Woods & Gallo) are in the 30s. Megill struck out nine Blue Jays over six one-hit innings last time out and is up to a 12.8 SwStr% (14.4% L5 outings).
Top Pens: Tigers, Padres, Brewers, Mets (really?), Yankees (really II?)
Bottom Pens: Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers
Workload issues: Justin Anderson (47 – 3 of L4), Chad Kuhl (53 – 2 of L3), Jose Quijada (29 Monday), Edwin Diaz (31 – 2 straight), Jose Ferrar (60 – 3 of L4), A.J. Puk (48 – 3 of L4), Ryan Thompson (40 – 3 of L4), Robert Suarez (27), Tanner Scott (40) and Jason Adam (22) all back to back with the latter two throwing 10 pitches each four days ago too.
Offense
Obviously, I gravitated towards Diamondbacks because it was very easy to do so. Perhaps not Marte and Corbin, but Pederson (157 wRC+, .256 ISO v RHP, 143 wRC+ L30 days), McCarthy (119, .144, 60), Smith (143, .253, 185) all fit fairly reasonably with Moreno (105, .129, --) too cheap at an awful position tonight. Every projected Diamondback has at least a 105 wRC+ against RHP this year with all except Moreno, McCarthy and Suarez (108) exceeding a 120 wRC+ L30 days.
Otherwise, I gravitated to RHBs facing LHPs like Jose Iglesias (169, 110, 108), who has been batting leadoff recently, Mark Vientos (174, .281, 103), Masyn Winn (122, ,.238, 75) and Luken Baker (231, .600, 103). And then, Lawrence Butler (136, .239, 196) as a still undervalued, far too cheap, standalone bat.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Bobby Witt (174, .282, 119) – too expensive and cooling off though.
2 – Corbin Carroll (113, .205, 157) – and then basically most of the Arizona lineup following him, followed by the top COL bats and then Butler.
Top Value Bats
(FD) Baker – Iglesias (if leadoff) – P.Smith – Pederson – Butler – Butler - Winn
(DK) Baker – Smith – Winn – Iglesias – Butler - Pederson
Additional Notes
Left-handed batters have a .376 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against Chris Bassitt, which kind of makes that the most attackable spot outside Coors…if the Rangers had better LHBs. RHBs have a .353 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against Mize, which is what boosts Witt to the top, despite cooling down. The Royals don’t really have any other strong RHBs besides Perez (111, .182, 114) and even that’s somewhat marginal (hence, Tigers +145). RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against Falter, hence the St Louis love. LHBs also have a .298 wOBA, but .350 xwOBA against him.
My top rated power bats (ISO and HRs and stuff) are Baker, Michael Toglia, Juan Soto, Pederson. Takes park, weather, opposing pitcher and own ISO split into account. I do have slight PH concern for Pederson.
Best combos to run on tonight are Falter/Bart or Grandal. Most other poor holding pitchers have strong throwing catchers projected. Toughest Wheeler/Realmuto. Likewise, the best holding pitchers have the worst throwing catchers projected behind the plate.
Top running threats (sprint speed, pitcher hold, catcher throw) are Iglesias, Zack Gelof, Winn, Joey Loperfido, Harrison Bader.
That’s it for now. Perhaps more updates later.
Update 3:25 EST
Will Smith sits, but still 3.66% line move towards Dodgers. That's pretty aggressive with Miller on teh mound.
Update 3:35 EST
A nice 5.06% gain on BOS.
Update 4:45 EST
Unfortunately, the Royals have leaned into Mize's reverse split with seven RHBs, while the Tigers have not leaned into Ragans' one. Still, a 1.55% gain on DET. I've moved slightly closer to Kansas City due to those lineup decisions and would see the current line (+136) as not having much value.
Update 5:05 EST
Roof open in Milwaukee. Run environment increase from 94 to 98 on average. Boost to power, particularly right-handed, but remember that both of these pitchers have large platoon splits. Bohm out. A small 1.66% gain on MIL.
Update 5:20 EST
Around 70 degrees with a light wind from near the right field corner, along with Carapazza listed as umpire gives a slight pitching boost here. Almost no move (+0.37%) on OAK.
Update 5:30 EST
Roof closed in Texas. Only two LHBs for TOR, four for TEX with both pitchers owing large splits (Bassitt worse against LHBs). If you're thinking good for Eovaldi, note that none of the first seven batters in the Toronto lineup reach even a 20 K% vs RHP this year.
Update 5:45 EST
No IKF or Oneil Cruz moves the line towards STL. Just two LHBs against Lynn, who has a wide split, more so by actual wOBA.
Update 5:50 EST
No Marte. Perdomo bats second. No Moreno either. Line movement towards Rockies.
Update 6:30 EST
No LAA LU. No Moncada yet, still a 2.16% gain on CWS.
Update 6:35 EST
Closing out Tuesday. No Yankee lineup, but a 1.06% gain on SEA.
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