Back for another 10 games on Monday after another unintentional three day weekend due to TBD Friday. The good news is that I don't anticipate any additional interruptions this week (though often, the interruptions aren't anticipated), barring another slate full of TBDs. The bad news is that I'm going to have to skip daily fantasy notes on Monday. Hopefully there's enough information below to get you through.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Twins @ Guardians
No earned runs in four of Pablo Lopez’s last five starts, although he did allow four unearned ones to the Angels last time out, which gives him seven over his last 13.2 innings. He has a 25.2 K-BB% over his last four starts though including a three strikeout affair against the Blue Jays. A 3.88 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 3.15 dERA to a 3.52 FIP. He’s been bitten a bit by the home run bug with 23 of 38 barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard (13.9 HR/FB). With a two point wOBA and xwOBA split and all between .290 and .300, that the Guardians are so predominantly left-handed shouldn’t be a deciding factor here. Lopez doesn’t have a PitchingBot (PB) grade below 50 with everything he throws more than 10% of the time above 55. We’re also now at a point in the season where the Guardians are below average against everything except fastballs and splitters.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.6 K%, 108 Home, 86 L7 days)
DEF: 4/15
B30: 3.66
BSR: 3
Tyler Boyd also allowed three unearned runs in his last start, but has also allowed no more than one earned in five of his six. He’s now also struck 23 of his 66 batters with just two walks with an 18 SwStr%. Sure, the White Sox and Pirates were two of those opponents, but the Dodgers were the other. So why the hell does he have a 74 Stuff+ and only one of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time (changeup) above a 50 PB grade? That 74 Stuff+ only increases to a 96 Pitching+ too. I don’t get it. Boyd has wide ranging estimators from a 2.91 xERA to a 3.96 dERA, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against him so far.
Opp wRC+: 107 (6.3 BB%, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 8/28
B30: 4.17
BSR: 1
Nationals @ Mets
After allowing 13 runs over his previous 9.2 innings, Jake Irvin held the Braves to a single run over six innings on two hits last time out. He struck out five with one walk. A 4.19 ERA that’s within a quarter of a run of all estimators suggest he’s a perfectly fine back end pitcher with a 14.3 K-BB% and a few too many barrels (9%), but just a 38.9% hard hit rate. Left-handed batters are within four points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him and 30 points higher than RHBs, which may not be much of an issue here with McNeil and now potentially Lindor out. Nothing stands out in the pitch modeling numbers, which agree with underlying results for the most part.
Opp wRC+: 107 (112 Home, 88 L7 days)
DEF: -19/3
B30: 3.79
BSR: -7
Sean Manaea has altered his release point and arm angle to mimic Chris Sale and the results since then are nearly mimicking him too (24.8 K-BB%, 29.9 HardHit%). With pitch modeling now available on Fangraphs game logs, you can now easily see Manaea’s Stuff+ increase to 99 over his last six starts (89 season) with substantial PB grade increases to his fastball (56 L6, 49 season) and sweeper (39 L6, 49 season). It also tightens up the release points between the fastball and sweeper with the more sidearm angle. While estimators now range from a 3.78 FIP to a 4.05 xFIP, I’m not so sure the 3.35 ERA isn’t more believable if he keeps his recent pace up.
Opp wRC+: 89 (20 K%, 7.5 HR/FB, 92 Road, 69 L7 days)
DEF: -3/12
B30: 3.66
BSR: 2
Dodgers @ Braves
Yoshi Yama returned from a nearly three month IL stint to strike out eight of the 15 Cubs he faced with an 18.5 SwStr% on 59 pitches. I’m assuming something like 75, which could get him through five and 18 batters. With a 23.7 K-BB% and 43.2 HardHit%, but just 7% Barrels/BBE in his rookie season, Yamamoto’s worst estimator is a 3.16 xERA. He has just a three point xwOBA split, despite 75 points of a reverse one by actual results. Dropping pitches he hasn’t thrown at least 100 times, all PB grades exceed 55 with just a 100 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+. His grades against the Cubs were even more impressive.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 4.34
BSR: -8
Max Fried has three quality starts of seven innings over his last five starts, but also allowed four runs last time out and walked four in one of those quality starts. I have no idea what to make of his lack of command this year. Strikeouts remain stable (22.6%), though that’s different from consistent. The contact profile is still elite (58.8 GB%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE, 34.5 HardHit%), but walks are up (8.0%) over two points from last year and over one point above his career rate. That establishes estimators that are all within one-third of a run of his 3.46 ERA. Fried has had issues with LHBs (.381 wOBA, .327 xwOBA), but few teams have had the gumption to stack them against him. A 94 Stuff+ works up to a 99 Pitching+, which is just about as impressive as a 3.93 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 118 (19.8 K%, 109 Road, 122 L7 days)
DEF: -3/0
B30: 2.68
BSR: 0
Recognizing that the Dodgers are going to do everything to protect their remaining star pitcher at this point and not wanting to get into a battle of the pens here, I think we’re safe with Yamamoto F5 (-116) and there are some pretty healthy edges for the Dodgers everywhere except on defense during that part of the game. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Tigers @ Royals
This could be Reese Olson, who’s last rehab start on the 10th lines up well. He struck out just one of eight in his first, but five of 10 in his second. However, he threw just 45 pitches and his velocity was down more than a mph. I would still expect significant workload restrictions here, possibly even an opener. (Does Detroit do that?) With just six home runs and 16 barrels (5.4%), all non-FIP estimators are more than a quarter run above his 3.23 ERA without reaching four. The low barrel rate is because of a 51.2 GB%, not any tendency towards thwarting hard contact (43.8%). Olson doesn’t have a PB grade reaching 50 (4.96 Bot ERA), along with a 92 Stuff+ that only increases to a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.9 K%, 86 L7 days)
DEF: 15/11
B30: 3.34
BSR: 6
Three straight seven inning outings for Seth Lugo with a total of two runs and the ERA is back below three. The difference is, he’s missing bats now. Well, not really. He’s struck out at least eight in three of his last five starts, but hasn’t exceeded a 10.5 SwStr% in any of them. With just 15 of 44 barrels leaving the yard, Lugo’s 2.94 ERA is still one-third of a run below his 3.27 FIP and more than three-quarters of a run below all other estimators. He has a solid 15.9 K-BB% with a league average contact profile and Statcast believes he’s thrown eight different pitchers this year. Only the curveball (16.1%, 2.1 RV/100, 59 PB grade) exceeds a 52 PB grade with a 4.31 Bot ERA and 97 Stuff+ increasing to a 100 Pitching+. The discrepancy is mostly against RHBs, who have a .257 wOBA, but .297 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.1 K%, 91 Road, 125 L7 days)
DEF: 28/22
B30: 3.79
BSR: 7
Athletics @ Cubs
While certainly a back end of the rotation arm with a league average 13.2 K-BB% and 9% Barrels/BBE, it’s surprising that Joey Estes’s 4.21 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator below four and a half and perhaps that has quite a bit to do with his 23.5 GB% (contact neutral estimators really like ground balls), but he’s generates almost as many popups (32) as barrels (33). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .307 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA, which isn’t too much worse than average, while his 92 Stuff+ increases to a 104 Pitching+. A 64 grade slider/sweeper (20.8%, 1.3 RV/100) supports a 3.80 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 101 (109 L7 days)
DEF: -39/-16
B30: 4.11
BSR: 5
Four straight quality starts with eight runs over 27 innings for Shota Imanaga with a 16.8 K-BB% bringing his season mark down to 20.9%. Shota can struggle when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley (8.8% Barrels/BBE), but fortunately for him, that’s not been too often. While all estimators are at least half a run above his 3.03 ERA, none reach four with batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. This is a great matchup for his fastball (52.6%, 0.6 RV/100, 65 PB grade), as Oakland is a bottom quarter of the league offenses against the heater (-0.4 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: 14/27
B30: 4.10
BSR: 2
Phillies @ Brewers
In four starts back from the IL, Ranger Suarez has allowed nine runs in 19.1 innings with a 17.8 K-BB% (4.2% against the Florida teams last two), but just a 47.5 GB%. Going back to his last start of June, he’s allowed 27 runs over 40.1 innings with an 11.3 K-BB% and 47.4 GB%, though he’s only allowed hard contact on 32.4% of batted balls. On the season, his 3.05 ERA is below estimators not exceeding three and a half with an 82 Stuff+ working up to a 101 Pitching+ and PB ratings ranging from 46 to 60.
Opp wRC+: 102 (90 L7 days)
DEF: 10/6
B30: 4.00
BSR: 4
I’m looking for something interesting to say about Aaron Civale, but just can’t find it. That’s not necessarily bad because bad pitchers have a lot of interesting things in their profile. His 4.57 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, running as low as a 4.10 xERA. He has a little bit of an issue with RHBs (.330 wOBA, .333 xwOBA) and about 40% of his arsenal not reaching a 40 PB grade, which creates a 4.63 Bot ERA, but that’s countered by a perfectly average 100 Pitching+ from a 97 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 103 (90 L7 days)
DEF: 25/25
B30: 3.39
BSR: 1
Pirates @ Cardinals
With 198 pitches over his last two starts, it appears the Great Paul Skenes conservation Effort lasted all of two starts below 90 pitches. Perhaps it was the fact that he’s been sitting at 99 mph for the first two starts since the All-Star break that convinced the Pirates…he ain’t tired. How does a pitcher with a 25.6 K-BB%, allowing just 5.7% Barrels/BBE merit just 102 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks and only a slider he throws less than 10% of the time reaching a 60 PB grade. Statcast is probably misclassifying his pitches too. Batters from either side of the plate between a .250 and .266 wOBA and xwOBA with estimators running no higher than 2.87 SIERA. It’s hard to find flaws.
Opp wRC+: 102 (81 L7 days)
DEF: -14/-23
B30: 4.26
BSR: 2
Andre Pallante couldn’t possibly contrast Paul Skenes more. He generates ground balls (61.6%) with just a 7.2 K-BB%, allowing only 3.8% Barrels/BBE. While all estimators are within half a run of his 4.13 ERA, only a 4.37 SIERA is above it. Pallante has a 30 points Statcast and 62 point actual reverse split without a PB grade exceeding 50 and 91 Stuff+ working only up to a 96 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 84 (82 Road)
DEF: 11/13
B30: 3.67
BSR: 0
While I won’t argue that starting pitching is often the most important component to evaluating a game, it isn’t everything and the Cardinals beat the Pirates pretty soundly in every other area except for base running, where it’s pretty even. At worst, I know Pallante will keep it in the park (eight home runs, 12 barrels). Give me the home dog (+124).
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
In six starts back from the IL, Merrill Kelly has posted just a 9.1 K-BB% with seven home runs on 15 barrels (13.8%) and a 49.5 HardHit%. A changeup (56) he’s throwing 22.1% of the time is his only PB grade exceeding 47 over this span. A slight bit of good news is that after his velocity was down his first few starts, it’s beginning to tick back up, sitting near 93 mph in his last start, his best game average of the season.
Opp wRC+: 84 (26.2 K%, 89 Home, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 25/27
B30: 3.69
BSR: 6
The Rockies are activating Antonio Senzatela for his first major league start since May of 2023. He did face 18 batters over 3.2 innings in his last start, but they’re not worth evaluating, as he never reached AAA. He did allow eight runs over 11.2 AA innings, but with a 22.3 K-BB%. He projects for an ERA above five.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20 K%, 109 Road, 176 L7 days)
DEF: 2/6
B30: 4.02
BSR: 13 (Carroll accounts for 8 on his own – best in baseball)
White Sox @ Angels
The debilitating part of Jonathan Cannon’s profile is his 16.3 K%. He’s walked 7.5% with a similar rate of barrels allowed (7.6%) and just a 36.7 HardHit%. However, all estimators still exceed his 4.56 ERA, though only a 5.16 dERA by more than one-third of a run. The lack of swing and miss in his game is crippling an otherwise solid profile, even more so in front of the White Sox defense. While LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him, the Angels probably can’t do much about that. Pitch modeling is a bit more interesting with only his fastball (11.6%) below a 49 PB grade, resulting in a 4.11 Bot ERA with a 92 Stuff+ working up to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 88 (92 Home, 88 L7 days)
DEF: -30/-30
B30: 3.99
BSR: -8
Since he’s struck out 18 of 47 Dodgers and Twins since I wrote this, I’m just going to keep copying and pasting, while updating the numbers because nobody is paying me not to…
Maybe Reid Detmers didn’t really deserve his demotion with results (6.14 ERA) much worse than estimators averaging around four with a 4.15 xFIP his worst non-FIP estimator. Ten home runs on 16 barrels (9.0%), but just a 36.5 HardHit% and 15.5 K-BB%, he stranded just 61.7% of his runners with a .333 BABIP. Statcast (xwOBA) decreases batters from either side by nearly 40 points from their actual wOBA against Detmers. The slider (23.5%) was his worst graded pitch (47 PB), but he had two PitchingBot grades reaching 60 (change 15.6%, curve 14.9%), forming a 3.97 Bot ERA with near average 97 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks.
He’s up to a 17.6 K-BB% with a 5.64 ERA that’s way above estimators ranging from 3.54 dERA to a 4.05FIP, while his Stuff+ grade is just 91, but with a 105 Pitching+ since returning.
Opp wRC+: 69 (24.5 K%, 6.4 HR/FB, 74 Road, 69 L7 days)
DEF: -22/-4
B30: 3.97
BSR: 0
The defenses are pretty atrocious, but so is everything else except Detmers, including the offenses. I’m not even sure the current iteration of the Angels is as good as the numbers posted above. Almost everyone in the projected lineup strikes out at a rate higher than average. And we know all about the Chicago offense. They don’t have one. I’m playing the under here (8.5 -124) and expecting Detmers to do a lot of the heavy lifting, though I’ve seen Cannon have a few solid starts.
Astros @ Padres
The SpAghetti for Yu matchup. SpAghetti has had some odd outings recently, but did put together a strong one against Oakland last time out (6.2 IP – 2 R – 1 BB – 7 K). Walks have been a problem (10.6%) at times, as has the fact that 19 of his 28 barrels have left the park, but he does have a 27.4 K% with a near league average contact profile. His 4.72 ERA is more than a quarter run above estimators running as low as a 3.95 SIERA, while all four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time exceed a 50 PB grade, resulting in a 3.74 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.6 K%, 112 Home, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 2/-10
B30: 3.73
BSR: 3
Yu Darvish’s second start back from the IL went much better than his first with five two run innings, striking out five of 20 Mariners without a walk. He did allow two home runs on three barrels (20%), but just one other batted ball reaching a 95 mph EV. Yes, lol Mariners, but they’ve been a better offensive bunch since Edgar Martinez took over as hitting coach. Darvish has a perfectly reasonable 17.1 K-BB% with 7.1% Barrels/BBE, but a 41.5 HardHit%. His 3.59 ERA is below estimators not reaching four with batters from either side of the plate between a .291 and .306 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Nothing jumps out in mostly perfectly average pitch modeling numbers.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19.4 K%, 119 L7 days)
DEF: -2/-8
B30: 3.25
BSR: -8
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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