Back to the standard, original format for an eight game Thursday. The potential for daily fantasy notes on what's probably going to be a five game slate exists, but is not promised. We start with just one TBD (CIN) and one major league debut.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Rockies @ Tigers
Ryan Feltner does have 10 quality starts this year (38.5%) with batter wOBA against him dropping to .308 outside Coors, but his K-BB also drops to 11.6%. On the season, a 4.53 xERA is his only estimator not more than half a run below a 4.96 ERA that has been blemished by a .319 BABIP and 64 LOB%. The former is just a casualty of Coors. Nothing pops in his pitch modeling numbers. He’s fine…or what the Rockies call an Ace.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.2 K%)
DEF: 0/18
B30: 4.41
BSR: 5
Looking for my 10 to 1 Cy Young play to pad his stats here. Tarik Skubal has failed to complete six innings in two of his last three starts, but you’d have to go back to the middle of June to find the third time he’s done it. He’s allowed more than three runs only once in that span (13 starts) and only as many as three two more times. A 25.5 K-BB% and 33.6 HardHit% are what Cy Youngs are made of. All estimators exceed his 2.53 ERA without reaching three with batters from either side of the plate held below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA. The changeup and fastball reach 60 PitchingBot grades, while the Rockies are bottom third of the league against both pitches.
Opp wRC+: 77 (27.3 K%, 76 Road, 48 L7 days)
DEF: 13/13
B30: 3.51
BSR: 7
Update 12:40 EST: No Vierling. Warm (low 80s) with Marquez (hitter friendly) listed as umpire.
Reds @ Cardinals
No starter is currently listed for this game. Roster Resource had Jacob Junis, who has a staggering 110 Pitcching+ off a 99 Stuff+ to go along with elite sinker and slider PitchingBot grades (6o+), but just 13 of his 51 innings have come in a starting role. Just six outings of less than two innings though.
Opp wRC+: 102 (48 L7 days)
DEF: -12/-19
B30: 4.12
BSR: 2
Sonny Gray has allowed five runs in seven of his 26 starts and he’s allowed 14 of his 21 home runs in those starts. With a 24 K-BB%, that’s the bugaboo. He doesn’t even allow a large amount of hard contact (38.8%), but 9.3% of that contact has been barreled and 21 of those 37 barrels have left the park. It’s not an egregious percentage, but more than you’d expect for a guy pitching in St Louis. The 3.78 xERA believes he’s earned his 3.84 ERA, but additional estimators range from more than half a run to almost a full run lower. He’s allowed eight unearned runs with just a 68.3 LOB% and 15.4 HR/FB. Gray has also had his issues with LHBs (.331 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), which shouldn’t be an issue against the Reds. In fact, this should be a great matchup for him, considering they’re a bottom five offense against both sliders and cutters, pitches that Gray is within one point of a 60 PitchingBot grade each.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.9 K%, 91 Road, 68 L7 days)
DEF: 10/12
B30: 3.73
BSR: 1
Update 12:50 EST: Mid-80s. Junis confirmed. No Donovan. Line movement towards Reds
Athletics @ Astros
It’s not like the second coming of Hudson, Mulder and Zito, but the A’s are producing some competent middle to back end starting pitching like Estes, Sears, maybe J.T. Ginn and this guy, Mitch Spence. He doesn’t necessarily pitch deep into games (six innings just 30% of his starts), but has a near average 12.6 K-BB% with an average contact profile and nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. In fact, his 4.42 ERA exceeds all estimators ranging from a 3.77 dERA to a 4.18 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate have a .330 against him, but Statcast knows LHBs down to .282, which is where the disconnect probably lies. Pitch modeling is even slightly more encouraging with a 3.77 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.6 K%, 118 Home, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -39/-17
B30: 4.13
BSR: -9
Framber Valdez has a 25.3 K-BB% over his last 10 starts (16.5% season) without sacrificing many ground balls (59.2% vs 60.1% season), while also reducing his barrel (4.2% vs 4.6%) and hard contact (38.2% vs 45.2%) rates. If he had started the season with these 10 starts, he’d probably be in contention for an All-Star start and an early Cy Young candidate. Even though he did not, all estimators are below three and a half, though not quite as low as his 2.97 ERA. For starters, his velocity is up almost a mph over this stretch, trading off some sinkers (37.9% over this stretch, 53 PB grade season) for curveballs (37.3%, 61). It’s a tradeoff that makes a lot of sense. Batters from either side of the plate fail to reach a .300 wOBA or xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 105 (78 L7 days)
DEF: 2/-19
B30: 3.64
BSR: 1
I hate to go against Framber when he’s pitching like this, but I feel the A’s are consistently being undervalued. I’ve probably watched more of their broadcasts than any other out of market team since the break for reasons of financial interest. However, you have competitive offense and maybe defense (look at the second numbers, which represent projected lineups) and better base running. I will suffer the bullpen deficit for what a much better price (+200). I feel the F5 game should be the full game line for the A's. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 1 EST: Roof closed, Altuve out, line movement still towards Cards (1.58%).
Marlins @ Nationals
Darren McCaughen threw a 4.2 inning relief outing for the Marlins before six innings in two outings for Cleveland and then was returned to the Marlins for a one inning outing and then two four inning starts. That’s 24.1 innings total with a 3.4 K-BB% and six home runs on eight barrels (8.9%), but just a 34.4 HardHit%. With just a 31 GB%, 92.7 Z-Contact% and 45.4 Z-O-Swing%, he doesn’t have an estimator below five and a half to go along with an 83 Stuff+ mark (87 Pitching+) and not a single pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade. Batters from either side of the plate have happily pummeled him above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA with RHBs above .390.
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.3 K%, 87 L7 days)
DEF: -22/7
B30: 3.48
BSR: 1
Mitchell Parker started his career out hot before regressing a bit and then eventually spiraling for about a month before coming out of it. Since then, we’ve had a little bit of everything. It’s been a bit chaotic. Overall his 14.3 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE and 39 HardHit% is probably solid fourth starter territory, but that’s not what you’re consistently getting from him. There’s a certain amount of volatility, despite all non-FIP estimators being within one-third of a run of a 4.24 ERA. I guess we should include a 3.89 FIP as a reasonable 17 of his 35 barrels have left the park. Mitchell does have some platoon issues (RHBs .320 wOBA, .349 xwOBA, but a Bot ERA (4.41) that matches his actual results and an 88 Stuff+ increasing to a 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 76 (81 Road, 92 L7 days)
DEF: -20/6
B30: 4.10
BSR: 2
DFS Notes: A five game Thursday night slate commences a half hour earlier and includes just a single protected environment (Seattle) without any major weather issues or impact. We get two offenses reaching five implied runs, but only one more barely reaching four and then the rest of the field separated by less than two-thirds of a run.
We start with temperatures in the mid-70s and a near double digit wind blowing across the field in Washington, where the Nationals are one of our five run offenses (5.09) with the Marlins (3.91) smack middle of our board. The little I’ve seen concerning McCaughan leaves me with no interest. Mitchell is certainly at least a usable arm tonight in a great matchup. I’m debating him for my SP2 arm on DK, as he would save me $1.2K. None the less, RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against him. I have Norby (116 wRC+, .250 ISO v LHP, 155 wRC+ L30 days) in both of my lineups and like Edwards (111, .065, 77), Burger (85, .222, 73) and Bride (99, .082, 107) here too. Mitchell holds runners well, but Ruiz undoes a lot of his good work with his poor arm. The Nationals have a bottom third of the league pen L30 days. James Wood (135, .174, 123) is my highest rated National. Jose Tena (136, .113, 121) my best rated value. Abrams (93, .189, 57), Chapparo (79, .183, 123) and Garcia (122, .182, 79) should play here too, dependent upon lineup spots. Washington bats are more expensive than you’d expect though, Fortes has a cannon and Miami pen estimators L30 days are top quarter of the league, while being extremely well rested.
Update 4:20 EST: Edwards remains out for Marlins.
Rays @ Guardians
Many people believe (which is what I say when I believe something that hasn’t come to fruition yet) that Ryan Pepiot has Tyler Glasnow talent (and I don’t mean in an injury sense), but so far the Rays haven’t been able to fully harness it. In fact, in five starts back from the IL, he has just a 13 K-BB% dragging his season mark down to 16.7%, but he’s also allowed just a 27.8 HardHit% over this stretch, 10 points below his season rate. Since completing six innings in four of his first six starts, he’s only done so five times in 16 tries since. All estimators are above his 3.66 ERA with several (xFIP, FIP, dERA) bordering on half a run higher. Pepiot has more than a 40 point split with LHBs owning a .316 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him. The changeup (22.8%) is an elite pitch by PitchingBot grading (71), but his worst pitch run value (-1.9 RV/100). With a 3.45 Bot ERA and 117 Stuff+ that reverts to a 105 Pitching+, I’d dare suggest that that’s the pitch that needs to be fixed.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.4 K%, 110 Home, 86 L7 days)
DEF: 5/-5
B30: 4.01
BSR: 2
Gavin Williams walked three and struck out none of the seven Dodgers he faced, as they put up five runs without allowing him three outs. While that doesn’t seem so surprising on the surface, they’ve been an offense with little success against fastballs (although there’s a much different look than earlier in the season) and that’s usually where Williams is at his best. He throws the damn thing 52.8% of the time with a 63 PB grade, but now a modest -0.2 RV/100 after that outing. With a 24.2 K% and 7.0% Barrels/BBE, issues include a 9.8 BB% and 42.1 HardHit%. Stranding just 64% of his runners, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.25 ERA, but with only his FIP (3.79) dipping below four. Curveballs and cutters have done a decent enough job neutralizing LHBs (below .290 wOBA and xwOBA), but RHBs have crushed him (above .350 wOBA and xwOBA). The Rays are capable of running a bunch of RHBs out there against him, but they are also a below average offense against fastballs (-0.22 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 10/30
B30: 3.83
BSR: 3
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a slight wind in from right field in a pitcher friendly park, The home team (4.07) is the third highest team total with the Rays (3.43) second from the bottom. Williams is another usable, but volatile arm around $7.5K. In his favor is that the Rays don’t hit fastballs well, but their personnel is ever changing. I believe Pepiot to be a bit too expensive in a solid run prevention, but low upside spot. That said, even with LHBs owning a .316 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him, Cleveland bats are not popping out. Kwan (117, .129, 42) is my highest rated against a tough pitcher to run on, but bottom quarter of the league bullpen estimators L30 days with Rasmussen throwing 32 pitches against the Phillies yesterday. Naylor, Ramirez and Noel all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO v RHP. All three plus Kwan and Manzardo have at least a 139 wRC+ at home. The only Tampa Bay bat sticking out is the near min-priced Aranda (105, .161, 134) as a decent value, though Williams does have that reverse split. The Rays don’t have a projected batter above a 100 wRC+ and .175 ISO v RHP. In fact, they don’t have a RHB above a 105 wRC+. Williams/Naylor are a beatable combination on the base paths. The Guardians have upper half of the league pen estimators L30 days. Clase (30) has thrown two of the last three, but is rubber armed. Gaddis (32) has thrown three in a row and Smith (31) two in a row.
Update 4:30 EST: Both teams take advantage of the opposing pitcher's platoon splits. The Rays with five RHBs (Morell leading off) and the Guardians with eight LHBs (Brennan in for Noel).
Red Sox @ Yankees
Cooper Criswell is a guy with strong pitch modeling (three of four pitches exceed a 55 PB grade with a 3.57 Bot ERA), but unimpressive results. The 6.9 BB% and 6.5% Barrels/BBE (37 HardHit%) are great with 50.9% of his contact on the ground, but he’s struck out just 16.9% of batters faced with a 6.6 SwStr%. His 4.11 ERA matches his 4.09 FIP and 4.17 xERA with contact neutral estimators higher, but within one-third of a run. While RHBs have a .349 wOBA against Criswell, Statcast drops that to a more digestable .328 xwOBA. Typically a twice through the order guy, he’s only recorded sixth inning outs in three of 17 starts and has failed to go beyond four inning six times.
Opp wRC+: 122 (10.8 K-BB%, 15.8 HR/FB, 118 Home, 77 L7 days)
DEF: -10/-18
B30: 4.36
BSR: -8
Nestor Cortes was upset about a move to the bullpen lasting one 4.1 innings outing, which was longer than his previous start in which he allowed five runs with just a pair of strikeouts. To be fair, he totaled a single run allowed over 20.2 innings in his previous three starts and finally seemed to be getting it going after a rough patch (24 runs in 23.1 IP). In a season of ups and downs, Cortes has a very reasonable 3.97 ERA with all estimators except a 4.55 dERA within one-third of a run. He’s produced a 17.1 K-BB% with a league average 8.1% Barrels/BBE, but a 43.8 HardHit%. All of his pitches are in the 50 to 56 PithcingBot range with a 100 Stuff+ and 101 Pithcing+. While I was never a believer that Cortes was as good as his surface numbers at his peak, I think there are worse pitchers and better bullpen candidates in this rotation. Well…at least one.
Opp wRC+: 100 (28.2 K%, 113 Road, 129 L7 days)
DEF: 2/13
B30: 3.83
BSR: 7
Giving Cortes a near half run advantage, I don’t believe the offensive gap here is as large as the 22 point wRC+ gap between L/RHP. The Red Sox have been the better offensive team as of late and, for some reason, have shined away from Fenway. They do have the defensive deficit, but gain a lot of that back in base running. I certainly have the Yankees favored here, but not by all that much. The Yankees do have a half run bullpen edge too (by last 30 day estimators), though are right now in the midst of an extra-inning affair with the Royals in which they’ve utilized their highest leverage relievers. The Red Sox played extra-innings against the Orioles too, but ended that one quickly and don’t really have quality high leverage relievers to worry about.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a near double digit wind in from around the right field pole area. The Yankees (5.15) are currently the top offense on the board with the Red Sox (3.85) middle of the board. Cortes is the other arm I’m debating with Parker for my SP2. There are a lot of strikeouts in the Boston lineup against LHP, but he’s $1.2K more on FD. Criswell is one of the worst values on the board. With RHBs owning a .327 wOBA and .307 xwOBA against Cortes, O’Neill (218, .438, 137) is a top bat. Refsnyder (160, .248, 101) plays and Gonzalez (141, .190, 74) is a decent value. All three plus Duran and Devers exceed a 120 wRC+ on the road. A marginal running spot against Cortes and Wells. The Yankee pen has top half of the league estimators L30 days, despite their fluid closer situation and Weaver (48) has thrown two of three, Cousins (58) three of four. Torres (88, .084, 130), Wells (133, 224, 132), Judge (204, .349, 183), Soto (185, .295, 155) and Stanton (125, .285, 85) are bats I’m looking to jam into my lineup. I can’t fully comment on the running situation because I don’t have a clear idea of which catcher will be behind the plate against LHP (the other may DH), but the Red Sox now have the worst bullpen estimators L30 days, though estimators are down in general.
Update 5:20 EST: Temperature expectation just a small drop to the low 70s. Lineups exactly as expected. Large line movement towards Yankees. This might be my worst closing line value of the season, at -3.92% so far.
Rangers @ Mariners
Surely you remember Kumar Rocker. The Mets drafted him in the first round a few years back and tried to ruin his life because they thought he was related to John. He went back into the draft where he was selected with Texas’s first pick the next year. He’s rocketed through the system pretty quickly with 28 A+ innings, seven CPX innings, 19.2 AA innings and 10 AAA innings. That’s it. That’s his professional career. After striking out 29 of 71 and 18 of 35 with a total of four walks at the latter two levels, here he is. A late July Fangraphs scouting report only had Rocker as a 40+ Future Value arm, but also had Leiter a spot behind him and he had thrown all of eight low minor league innings prior to that report. Not all projection systems are projecting him because nobody flies through a system that quickly, especially after Tommy John surgery, but the ones that are projecting him are all over the place, as low as three and a half (maybe as a relever?) and as high as four and a half. Your guess is as good as mine, but he couldn’t ask for a much softer landing spot.
Opp wRC+: 102 (27.6 K%, 155 L7 days)
DEF: 24/13
B30: 3.84
BSR: -4
By now, anyone still reading baseball articles like this late in the season probably knows about Bryce Miller’s large home/road splits. In Seattle, he’s posted a 24.3 K-BB% that’s more than double his mark on the road with batters only owning a .228 wOBA against him. That drops to .201 for RHBs in Seattle against Miller and with Seager on the IL, the Rangers really don’t have the quantity or quality of LHBs to take advantage of the small shot they have against this pitcher at home (.253 wOBA). On the season, Miller’s estimators all drop below four with just six runs over his last 34.2 innings, but just four of six quality starts over this span. His ERA is still much lower (3.18) with a .242 BABIP. Overall pitch modeling is pretty strong with everything he throws more than five percent of the time above a 50 PitchingBot grade, capped by a 68 grade splitter (16.5%).
Opp wRC+: 94 (20.4 K%, 89 Road)
DEF: -13/8
B30: 4.01
BSR: 3
DFS Notes: Even with the roof open 75% of the time (we never know when), Seattle is still the most negative run environment in the game, though power gets a bit of a boost. The Mariners (3.69) are fourth from the bottom with the Rangers (3.31) are holding up the bottom. I’ve decided that Miller might be slightly expensive in this spot, as I’m not going solely by his home numbers. I’m not sure he’s that good and the Rangers are a good run prevention, but poor strikeout spot. Rocker is the second most expensive FD and third most expensive DK arm. I don’t expect him to go deep enough into the game to accumulate that much value and the Seattle bats have been smoking as of late. I don’t know what to do with Seattle bats. Everyone except Crawford has at least a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year (among those projected) with Raleigh and Raley above a .200 ISO, but nobody else exceeding .155. Raley (180) also tops the projected lineup in wRC+ L30 days. The Rangers have a middling, below average pen over the last month, but is well rested. Despite my gripes about Miller’s price, he’s still one of the top pitchers on the board. I have no interest in Texas bats, capped at Smith’s 114 wRC+ against RHP without Seager.
Update 6:15 EST: Final update. Mariners are in with no surprises, but with the half hour earlier start time, we may be missing a few lineups. Also seeing seven TBDs for Friday, nearly one quarter of the slate, similar to last Friday, so it looks like I'm taking another three day weekend.
Brewers @ Giants
Frankie Montas struck out a season high 10 Rockies last time out in his second quality start in seven tries for the Brewers and nine starts overall. The Brewers have him throwing more sinkers and a bit harder It hasn’t led to any increase in ground balls (40%), but has improved his K-BB (15.5% with the Brewers, 11% season), though this last start against an awful offense is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. On the season, Montas has a 4.69 ERA that’s above, but within one-third of a run of all estimators except for a 5.06 dERA because nobody knows how the hell that’s calculated. The Brewers would be thrilled to decrease that half a run, which he may do at this pace, and improve his standing with LHBs (.368 wOBA, .377 xwOBA). Montas throws all manner of fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter, splitter) along with a slider and all range from 49 to 52 PitchingBot grades with a 98 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 93 (82 L7 days – though currently crushing Colin Rea)
DEF: 26/23
B30: 3.32
BSR: 6
Hayden Birdsong’s last six starts have covered a total of 21.2 innings or just about as much as many innings as closers would cover over six appearances in the 70s (so I’m told). The most obvious reason for this would be a 5.6 K-BB% and that’s with an above average strikeout rate. Then there’s also the 11.7% Barrels/BBE and 53.3 HardHit%. His season estimators now all exceed four and a half, while RHBs have destroyed him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380. Ironically, the changeup (18.2) is his worst performing pitch (-0.8 RV/100), but highest graded one (62 PB) with no other PitchingBot grades exceeding 42. Birdsong has been able to reduce a 111 Stuff+ to a 95 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 107 (107 Road, 61 L7 days)
DEF: -1/17
B30: 3.72
BSR: 2
DFS Notes: Barely 60, as it is in San Francisco in September, in an already negative run environment, yet the Brewers (3.91) are fourth from the top on this day with the Giants (3.59) third from the bottom. I really like Montas here within $100 of $8K. This spot may now be better than Seattle with only one projected SF bat (Bailey) below a 24 K% v RHP. Birdsong has all kinds of issues now. Only price and another high strikeout lineup (five of nine projected above a 25 K% v RHP) are in his favor. Yaz (111, .225, 124) is the only bat that pops a little bit here because he’s in the leadoff spot. Yes, Montas has massive problems with LHBs, which that splitter should be neutralizing, but Yaz is the only one pairing a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .120 against RHP in this projected lineup. His 124 wRC+ L30 days sits only behind Chapman’s (128) with nobody else above 105. Montas holds runners really well and the Brewers have the fourth best pen estimators L30 days. Chourio (126, .223, 157) is the standout among Milwaukee bats, though Contreras, Mitchell and Adames all exceed a 120 wRC+ with at least a .185 IS) v RHP too. All four exceed a 125 wRC+ L30 days with no other projected Brewer reaching 100. All four plus Perkins and Turang exceed a 110 wRC+ on the road. Bailey is the best throwing catcher in the league though, while the Giants have a perfectly middling pen.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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