I liked the way things worked out in yesterday's new format and am going to keep it here. It didn't save as much time as I hoped it would, but should going forward.
All stats through Monday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
We start with just a pair of unconfirmed starters (Marlins & Reds).
Sean Manaea
No particular interest in this game (aside from being a Mets fan), but wanted to note the massive improvement Manaea has made since altering his arm angle and release point to emulate Chris Sale. A 26.2 K-BB% and 31.1 HardHit% over his last eight starts has been the result.
Rays @ Phillies
Shane Baz has three quality starts in his last four tries, but with a 9.2 K-BB% and just 10.1% on the year. He also has a 43 HardHit%, which projects a 4.07 ERA, his closest estimator to a 3.27 ERA. A .257 BABIP and 79.2 LOB% are most responsible for the large gap and it’s mostly seen in LHBs, who have a .287 wOBA, but .332 xwOBA against Baz. Pitch modeling is conflicting. A 59 PitchingBot grade on his fastball is his only pitch grade above 46, resulting in a resulting in a 4.40 Bot ERA. On the other side, Baz boasts a 113 Stuff+, but it drops to a 101 Pitching+ with a 10.1 BB%.
Opp wRC+: 103 (113 Home, 142 L7 days)
DEF: 5/-5
B30: 3.92
BSR: 2
Seven straight quality starts with a total of nine runs (eight earned) allowed for Zach Wheeler, who boasts a 21 K-BB% and 33.6 HardHit% without a single estimator reaching 3.50. He does have some issue with LHBs (.307 wOBA, .312 xwOBA). The only pitches he throws more than 10% of the time (fastball, sinker, slider) receive PitchingBot grades greater than 60 with a 2.98 Bot ERA, 106 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.5 K%, 78 L7 days)
DEF: 9/4
B30: 3.74
BSR: 3
Let’s cut this in half and focus on the Philadelphia offense, which has been heating up and easily blew by their three and a half run total on Tuesday. Baz’s estimators all exceed four, while the Rays are putting a marginal, at best, defensive product on the field, along with bottom half of the league bullpen estimators over the last month. I’m riding the Phillies’ over (4.5 +116) at a nice price. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Braves @ Nationals
Inconsistency has been the theme of the formerly very consistent Max Fried, coming off an eight strikeout effort against the Blue Jays one start after walking as many Phillies as he struck out (four). The contact profile is still elite (58.8 GB%, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 34.5 HardHit%), but the 14.2 K-BB% is average. Because of the elite ground ball rate, Fried’s 3.35 ERA is below, but within have a run of all estimators. Fried throws a lot of different pitches, but to sum up, a 3.98 Bot ERA is nearly a quarter run above all other estimators with a below average 94 Stuff+ working up to an average 99 Pitcihng+.
Opp wRC+: 88 (19.9 K%, 7.1 HR/FB)
DEF: -2/-25
B30: 2.86
BSR: 1
Jake Irvin is struggling. He’s allowed 30 runs over his last 37.2 innings with just a 9.5 K-BB%, but also just a 33.3 HardHit% with nine of 10 barrels leaving the park. The underlying numbers aren’t great, but a .342 BABIP, 65.5 LOB% and 20.9 HR/FB have something to do with that. The sinker (18.9%) and curve (32.7%) reach 60 PitchingBot grades with a 3.95 Bot ERA, 94 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ that slightly better Fried’s numbers.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.3 K%, 59 L7 days)
DEF: -20/3
B30: 4.18
BSR: -10
Despite what pitch modeling says, I’m giving Fried about two-thirds of a run on Irvin and of course, the bullpen is a massive edge, but Washington is putting a much better defensive product on the field with better base running. The predominantly right-handed Braves smashed Gore last night. I’ll eat that one, but they’re not a good offense, as currently constructed, against RHP. They beat the Washington offense against RHP, by just four points and the Washington lineup is much improved from what it was earlier in the season, when guys like Rosario were getting PAs over Wood. I’ll take my chances with the bullpens (Nats shouldn’t have used any key relievers in a blowout0 for a better price (+148).
Royals @ Yankees
There have been occasional rough spots for Cole Ragans in recent outings, but he’s always bounced back. His 21.3 K-BB% with 6.4% Barrels/BBE produce estimators all within half a run of his 3.33 ERA. Remove the FIP and they’re all within one-tenth of a run. It’s safe to say, we know who he is and that’s pitcher below a three and a half ERA. His pitch modeling is exception with a 60 grade fastball (41.6%) and changeup (23.9%). A 109 Stuff+ regresses to a strong 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 105 (9.2 K-BB%, 14.1 HR/FB, 120 Home)
DEF: 27/20
B30: 3.99
BSR: -8
Luis Gil returned with six innings of one hit ball, striking out seven of 21 Cubs without a walk. He’s gone of streaks of dominance, but also has often looked lost, taking a long route to estimators between a 3.52 xERA and 4.26 xFIP with lots of strikeouts (27.7%), walks (12.5%), barrels (8.8%), but not too much hard contact overall (35.8%). Gil’s 110 Stuff+ exceeds Ragan’s mark, but not his 101 Pitching+, while all three pitches are between 50 and 52 PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.7 K%)
DEF: 2/13
B30: 3.85
BSR: -1
The Yankees are in their lesser split against LHP, but do have a large Home/Road wRC+ gap. I’m not sure that’s enough for them to be favored in this game, when the Royals (+120) have a significant starting pitching edge, a better defense and similar pen estimators and base running.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Dean Kremer has produced four quality starts in his last five attempts with a 12.4 K-BB% that matches his season 12.3% mark and 34.2 HardHit%, but just one of his six barrels leaving the park. The 33 barrels (10.2%) are the larger problem when combined with just an average strikeout rate and near double digit walk rate. The 4.27 ERA is within half a run of, but below all estimators with Statcast pushing the xwOBA of batters from both sides above .330. The cutter (24.1%, 57 PB grade) is a solid pitch, but his only PitchingBot grade above 48, resulting in a 4.58 Bot ERA with an 87 Stuff+ that works up to a near aveage 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 109 (123 L7 days)
DEF: -2/8
B30: 3.65
BSR: 6
Nick Pivetta is not the most consistent pitcher in the league and even has just a 14.5 K-BB% over his last five starts (still better than Kremer), but still a 22.9 K-BB% on the season, which is what you need to make 10.1% Barrels/BBE work (the same rate as Kremer). This is why Pivetta’s worst estimator (4.10 FIP) is well below Kremer’s best. Ignore that he’s allowed 24 home runs on 33 barrels and his worst estimator is a 3.84 dERA, half a run below his 4.38 ERA because of those home runs. Pivetta has also held RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA, which is a major strength against Baltimore. As we’ve been noting all season, Pivetta has some of the pitch modeling in the league with a 134 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ and PithcingBot grades on his three main pitches between 58 and 61.
Opp wRC+: 114 (113 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: -10/-3
B30: 4.47
BSR: 0
With the same percentage of barrels, Pivetta shows what a difference a double digit improvement in K-BB would mean. Was there ever any doubt how I would be siding with these two pitchers matching up? If it’s not clear, the answer is BOS -126 F5. I want no part of that Boston pen.
Athletics @ Astros
While certainly a back end of the rotation arm with a league average 13.7 K-BB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE, it’s surprising that Joey Estes’s 4.14 xERA is his only estimator below four and a half and perhaps that has quite a bit to do with his 23.4 GB%, but he’s generates almost as many popups (27) as barrels (32). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .307 and .329 wOBA and xwOBA, which isn’t too much below average, while his 92 Stuff+ increases to a 105 Pitching+. A 66 grade slider (20.8%, 1.6 RV/100) supports a 3.76 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19.6 K%, 119 Home, 129 L7 days)
DEF: -39/-15
B30: 4.22
BSR: -9
Hunter Brown has allowed seven runs (just four earned) over his last 31 starts with an 18.8 K-BB% that brings his season mark up to 16.6%. Brown has allowed just a single barrel over that span with a 26 HardHit%. On the season, his 3.41 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.4%). He’s allowed just 4.3% Barrels/BBE with a 29.9 HardHit% on the season. Brown has just one PitcihngBot grade below 50 (cutter 16.9%, 45 grade), but still has a 4.29 Bot ERA, while his 103 Stuff+ reverts to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 101 (25.1 K%)
DEF: 2/-19
B30: 3.68
BSR: 0
I think an extreme fly ball rate breaks certain contact neutral estimators (see Verlander’s career) and believe that’s what’s happening here with Joey Estes. I think he’s closer to the 4.14 xERA than other estimators which are fairly well above his 4.46 ERA. That said, I have him far behind Brown and have Houston as a fairly sizeable favorite in this game. Just not that large. They have a moderate offensive edge and perhaps not a defensive one at all, depending on who takes the field, while the A’s are a much better base running team. At +198, it’s just too much for a very competitive team.
Brewers @ Giants
It’s been a rough go for Colin Rea with 17 runs (16 earned) over his last 27.2 innings, though he’s done this with a 17.6 K-BB% (just two walks). A 21.5% mark over his last eight starts has driven his season mark up to a league average 13.4%. The problem has been when batters make contact because they’re barreling 9.2% of that contact, including 9.7% over this eight start stretch. Even worse, Rea has a 46.9 HardHit% over his last 11 starts (41.9% on the year). Because he’s stranded 79.3% of runners with a .263 BABIP, Rea’s 3.72 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators and more than a run below 4.94 xERA and pitch modeling isn’t going to save him with an 85 Stuff+ (97 Pitching+) and 4.41 Bot ERA with PitchingBot grades between 43 and 55.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 26/20
B30: 3.34
BSR: 6
Despite allowing just two runs, Blake Snell was pulled after a rough first inning last time out because he threw 42 pitches. I’d consider two if last three starts disastrous, including his six walk, three inning performance in Seattle, but in between, he threw seven four hit innings with eight strikeouts. The walk rate is up to 11% not, but everything else is elite (32.7 K%, 16 SwSTr%, 78 Z-Contact%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 27.6 HardHit%). His 3.62 ERA is above all estimators and well above a 2.77 xERA. The issue has been a 28.1 LOB%. When he throws strikes, he’s dominant. Snell’s only PitchingBot grade below 57 is for a slider he throws just 9.7% of the time. Unfortunately, the walks force a 121 Stuff+ all the way down to a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 103 (108 Road, 51 L7 days)
DEF: -1/17
B30: 3.70
BSR: 1
I’m going to opt for the guy with control issues over the guy with contact issues. Mostly because his K-BB is like 10 points higher, but also because they’re putting a similar defensive product on the field right now (It’s really mostly Bailey though) and even have a base running edge. We’re also going to avoid what’s become a dominant bullpen by going F5 (-140).
Cubs @ Dodgers
Jordan Wicks has posted a marginal 13.1 K-BB% over 38 innings, allowing just 5.2% Barrels/BBE with a hard hit rate below 40%. Ignore just two of those six barrels leaving the yard and you end up with estimators above, but within a quarter run of his 4.03 ERA. Perfectly average stuff in this day and age. His 93 Sturr+ increases to a 101 Pitching+, while a 66 grade fastball (45.5%) supports a 3.77 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 115 (19.9 K%, 119 Home, 92 L7 days)
DEF: 9/23
B30: 3.88
BSR: 0
Bobby Miller has struck out at least eight in two of his last three starts, but that was against the Angels and Rays, while he’s still allowed 26 runs over his last 24.2 innings with an 11.5 K-BB% that actually improves his season mark to 10.4%. All 10 barrels (10.8%) have left the park and that’s a bit unfortunate, but it’s still a lot of barrels and a 51.3 HardHit%. A 7.79 ERA is a bit ridiculous (65.1 LOB%, 28.8 HR/FB), but his best estimator is still just a 4.46 xFIP with an xERA above six and a half. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him and Miller’s 113 Stuff+ plummets to a 97 Pitching+. The curveball (18%) is now his only remaining pitch above a 50 PitchingBot grade, driving a 4.80 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 101 (85 L7 days)
DEF: 0/-9
B30: 4.01
BSR: 5
Why are they still pricing Buehler and Miller like they’re All Stars?
That'll be it for tonight. Be back with daily fantasy notes in the afternoon.
--- Wednesday Afternoon ---
Daily Fantasy Notes
Wednesday night’s eight game slate includes cooler temperatures and a pair of protected environments.
Seattle: open 75% of the time, but without notice
Arizona: already confirmed closed
Three teams (Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins) reach five implied runs with the Astros just missing. The Cardinals are the only other offense reaching four and a half runs with nine of the remaining 11 offenses below a four run team total (Yankees & Orioles exceptions), but nobody below three runs.
Top Pitchers
It’s sort of a 1A, B and C situation today with the first two slightly ahead of the third. They’re also the three most expensive pitchers on the board, so it’s nothing shocking. I’ve chosen Michael King as my SP1 in both FD and DK single entry lineups. He’s been quietly nearly dominant with a 19.4 K-BB%, 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 30.3 HardHit%. Estimators tightly range between a 3.43 FIP and 3.67 dERA with batters from either side of the plate not reaching a .310 wOBA or xwOBA. All PitchingBot grades between 52 and 57. All of this gets a bit enhanced going from a great run environment to the best one for pitchers and facing a lineup with a ton of Ks. Six projected Mariners reach a 26 K% vs RHP with just one below 21%.
The other two have tougher matchups, but I’m slotting Ragans slightly ahead of Snell because he’s less volatile, even though he’s probably in the tougher spot. I was able to include King and Ragans in my DK lineup. For more on Ragans, see the game notes above.
Lastly, Blake Snell. It’s not a great matchup, but a great park. He falls behind Ragans because of volatility, but he could easily be the most dominant pitcher on the slate. Let whatever ownership projections you follow be your guide here. For more on Snell, see game notes above.
If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2, first of all, good luck, and second of all…maybe Zebby Matthews? It hasn’t gone greatly for him possibly because he throws too many strikes. He’s struck out 22 of the 104 batters he’s faced, while walking just three, but with six home runs on 10 barrels (13%). The Angels (86 wRC+ Road, 88 v RHP, 86 L7 days) are a softer landing spot than the offenses he’s faced so far. Six projected Angels exceed a 23.5 K% v RHP this year.
Additional Pitching Notes: Bobby Miller is just $7K on FD and has piled up some strikeouts recently. Bryan Woo is above $8K in a great park, but terrible spot. The Padres don’t allow a lot of daily fantasy points to pitchers. Colin Rea has an interesting enough K-BB% and perhaps the park helps some of his hard contact issues. He’s within $200 of $8K on either site. Hunter Brown has been great and is in a dangerous, but high upside spot, costing more than $9K. He’s not the worst contrarian pivot from the top guys. Lance Lynn struck out eight of 20 batters in a rehab start. He didn’t allow a home run, but did walk two and allow seven hits (five runs), only making it through 3.2 innings.
Top Pens: Padres, Brewers, Twins, Orioles, Astros
Bottom Pens: Red Sox, A’s, Reds, Angels, Dodgers
Workload Issues: Josh Hader (two of last three – 40), Porter Hodge (two of last three – 34), Nate Pearson (two of last three – 36)
Offense
Similar to Tuesday, we got cheap, potent offense from the Minnesota Twins. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Jack Kochanowicz through 38.2 innings and you have an attackable bullpen behind him. Matt Wallner (177 wRC+, .331 ISO v RHP, 147 wRC+ L30 days) is one of my top bats and values on the board with Trevor Larnach (126, .205, 151) and Edouard Julien (98, .135, 95) competing with him in value. It’s difficult to find a Twins bat I don’t like tonight, but Jose Miranda (151, .195, 79) is my third baseman on both sites.
Also, similarly to Tuesday, I’m also looking at Cardinals bats, but this time, the top of the order and RHBs. Masyn Winn (124, .241, 84) and Luken Baker (366, 1.000, 148) are cheap, projected top of the order bats against a marginal LHP in Williamson.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Matt Wallner
2 – Jarren Duran (154, .279, 132 – LHBs .317 wOBA, .338 xwOBA v Kremer) – Great top of the order bat in a great park against a power prone pitcher.
3 – Gunnar Henderson (164, .277, 129 – LHBs .267, .276 v Pivetta) – This is clearly park and batter related, as Pivetta has squashed LHBs this year.
Top Value Bats
(FD) Baker (if batting top half of order), Wallner, Julien, Miranda, Larnach, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki
(DK) Baker, Julien, Wallner, Larnach, Mike Yastrzemski
A few on the three names above not touched on earlier. Happ (128, .211, 151) and Suzuki (135, .218, 140) top the Cubs lineup against a very vulnearable Bobby Miller and Dodger pen. Yaz (107, .215, 106) is a very cheap leadoff bat against the hard contact prone Rea, but in a tough park and against a tough bullpen.
Additional Notes
Left-handed batters have a .494 wOBA and .434 xwOBA against Zebby Matthews. Small sample, regression, yada, yada, yada, but cheap LH Angels may have some value. Left-handed batters also have a .310 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against Joey Estes. Alvarez (155, .266, 185) barely missed our Top Batter list. Left-handed batters are also within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against the returning Lance Lynn. There are probably the top attack spots not mentioned anywhere above.
My top rated pure power bats (ISO and HRs and stuff) are Judge, Wallner, Soto, Tucker/Alvarez and Baker. Takes park, weather, opposing pitcher and own ISO split into account.
Best combos to run on tonight are Lynn/whoever, Williamson/Stephenson and Rea/Contreras. Toughest Estes/Langeliers, Kremer/Rutschman, Gil/Wells. We have an interesting scenario where Snell is one of the worst run holders in the league, but Bailey is the best throwing catcher.
Top running threats (sprint speed, pitcher hold, catcher throw) are Tyler Fitzgerald (great sprint speed, poor pitcher holding), Winn/Siani/Walker from the Cardinals, PCA (another great sprint speed against a poor holding pitcher).
That's it for now. Probably a few more updates later below.
Update 4:20 EST
No Kelenic against a RHP. Laureano appears to have taken over an every day role, unless there's an injury I'm unaware of. Line move against the Nationals (1.86%).
Update 4:40 EST
No Schwarber or Realmuto, but still the same price on Phillies total (4.5 +116) and line movement towards Phillies. Morel bats leadoff with Diaz out.
Update 4:55 EST
Added Gil u5.5 Ks (+110). Just one above a 21.5 K% v RHP in KC LU. Walks (12.5%) drive up Gil's pitch count, only averages around 21 BF per game. Almost no movement on KC (0.77% loss).
Update 5:10 EST
Line movement 4.8% towards Red Sox F5. Seven LHBs against Pivetta's reverse split this year.
Update 5:25 EST
No Miranda. Or Jeffers. Angels playing a bunch of guys I never heard of.
Update 5:30 EST
Maile is a better throwing catcher than Stephenson. STL lineup as we hoped.
Update 5:50 EST
McCann in for Langeliers. More moderate throwing arm. Tucker out.
Update 6:35 EST
Still short Padres and Brewers lineups, but don't think we're incredibly interested in bats there anyway. A 3.19% gain on SFG F5.
Onto Thursday...
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