Doing things a bit differently today and maybe on days with more than 10 games going forward. I'm going to start this as a live blog, posting games as I work through them, when/if something of interest surfaces. I'm experimenting in this manner and not entirely covering all games in order to make it more manageable on these large slates. We'll see if it works. For a peak (peek?) at what daily fantasy notes might look like in this experimental format, check last Wednesday's post. I'll also be posting the legend up top now.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal,.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
There are currently two unconfirmed pitchers as I write this (Pirates and Giants)
Braves @ Nationals
Reynaldo Lopez has struck out 34 of 90 batters since returning from the IL (14.3 SwStr%), improving his estimators instead of his ERA regressing with five runs over 23 innings. He has allowed five barrels with a 51 HardHit% over this span, however, and still has a 4.09 xERA on the season. Even with just 10 of his 31 barrels turning into home runs, a 3.08 FIP is still more than a full run above his 2.04 ERA with no other estimator below three and a half. I’m not saying he’s not a quality pitcher, but the 87.3 LOB% is incredibly unsustainable and the market is treating him like an Ace. Left-handed batters have hit Lopez fairly well (.312 wOBA, .338 xwOBA), while the pitch modeling is marginal with a 4.17 Bot ERA (pitch grades from 44 to 56) with a 96 Stuff+ working up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.2 K%)
DEF: -2/-17
B30: 2.91
BSR: 2
Back up over 96 mph in each of his last two starts, Mackenzie Gore actually has three straight quality starts, totaling four runs against these Braves, the Yankees and Marlins. He’s also struck out 15 of his last 46 batters and could be very interesting in a spoiler role over the last month of the season if he’s back in the same place where he began the year. He’s still only allowing 6.4% Barrels/BBE on the season, but has done enough damage to see his K-BB drop to an acceptable 15.4%. That generates a 4.32 xERA that matches his 4.32 ERA with additional estimators lower, though only the 3.56 FIP outside a half run range. It’s actually been same-handed batters that have punished him for better than a .350 wOBA and xwOBA, though RHBs are still above .310 as well. Gore’s pitch modeling compares favorably to Lopez’s with a 3.83 Bot ERA and 112 Stuff+ that works down to a 101 Pitching+. A 65 grade fastball (55%, 0 RV/100) should work well against Atlanta again (-0.31 wFA/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 108 (24.7 K%, 75 L7 days)
DEF: -20/-1
B30: 4.15
BSR: -13
Yup, the Braves hit LHP better than RHP, but that’s still no whoop dee doo with their 96 wRC+ on the road matching Washington’s mark at home and they’re 75 wRC+ over the last week and that’s before going at least eight scoreless innings on Monday against Nick Martinez. It’s not like I’m not giving Lopez the advantage here. I am, by nearly half a run, but I just don’t find the Braves much superior in any other aspect (besides the bullpen, which we can bypass by going Nationals F5 +122) and even trailing significantly in a couple of areas (defense, base running). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps, though not much earlier in this new format.
Royals @ Yankees
Back to back seven inning one run outings for Seth Lugo and another one with just two runs four starts back with a Philly beating in between, it seems like he’s back to his old routine. Lugo’s 15.1 K-BB% and average contact profile projects a good pitcher (3.81 dERA – 4.01 SIERA), not a 3.05 ERA one. He’s been very fortunate with just 15 of his 43 barrels leaving the yard for a 7.9 HR/FB (3.39 FIP) because he pitches in a power suppressing park. This is not that. The biggest disconnect in his profile is a .260 wOBA for RHBs, which Statcast increases to a .301 xwOBA, while LHBs are in the same range as that latter number. Lugo throws a ton of different pitchers, but none even a full 25% of the time. The group combines for an unimpressive 4.37 ERA, though a 97 Stuff+ at least works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 122 (10.8 K-BB%, 15.9 HR/FB, 119 Home, 86 L7 days)
DEF: 27/26
B30: 3.74
BSR: -8
Marcus Stroman couldn’t make it out of the fourth in Texas last time out. With a similar contact profile to Lugo and only slightly more ground balls (48.4%), but a 7.6 K-BB%, his 4.03 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. The difference is Lugo may be a decent pitcher getting ahead of his estimators. Stroman starts with an average ERA and goes downhill from there. Batters with the platoon advantage exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs above .310 too. Stroman also throws a bunch of pitches, but the cutter (18%, 51 PB grade) is the only one above a 42 PB grade, resulting in a 5.08 Bot ERA and 92 Stuff+ that only increases to a 94 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.6 K%, 50 L7 days)
DEF: 2/13
B30: 3.90
BSR: 5
I may rag on Lugo’s ability to escape his estimators by so much, but at least I think he’s a decent pitcher and I’m sure he’s better than Stroman (by two-thirds of a run via weighted estimators). Yes, the Yankees have the far better offense, but give me the Kansas City (+126) defense, bullpen (barely) and base running.
Mets @ Blue Jays
No dog in this fight, but I already covered Bassitt for Monday, so why not? Peterson does have eight and 11 strikeout games against the Red Sox and Orioles over his last four starts, striking out a combined six Padres and Diamondbacks, which I can’t really hold against him, but his 2.75 ERA is still well below estimators above four.
Opp wRC+: 88 (20.9 K%, 8.3 HR/FB, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 0/-7
B30: 3.70
BSR: -8
Chris Bassitt can still pop a big one like his 6.2 innings of one run ball with nine strikeouts at Fenway two starts back, but that’s more the exception than the expectation at this point, as it’s his only quality start in his last five. I’ve been harping on it all season, so regular readers will know that the problem remains LHBs (.377 wOBA, .380 xwOBA) with around 100 points of separation. The good news for Bassitt (not yet confirmed) is that he’ll likely only be facing three with McNeil out, unless the Mets decide to start D.J. Stewart. Bassitt’s estimators are all within one-quarter run of his 4.30 ERA with a concurring 4.24 Bot ERA and 94 Stuff+ only working up to a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 108 (109 Home)
DEF: 20/24
B30: 4.05
BSR: -6
Guardians @ White Sox
With 22 runs (21 earned) over his last 29.2 innings, Ben Lively has finally cracked the four ERA mark, though his underlying numbers suggest that should have happened long ago. Posting just a 5.8 K-BB% over his last nine starts brings his season rate down to 11.5%. All estimators exceed his 4.07 ERA, running as high as a 4.84 FIP and if you want to go contact neutral, 4.58 xFIP. Batters from either side are between a tight .314 to .325 wOBA and xwOBA range and the pitch modeling…well, his 68 Stuff+ is behind only Chris Flexen (130 IP min.). Is a 93 Pitching+ and 4.78 Bot ERA much better?
Opp wRC+: 76 (9.0 HR/FB, 79 Home)
DEF: 10/29
B30: 3.78
BSR: 0
Jonathan Cannon is fresh off limiting Baltimore to a single run, finishing one out short of a quality start, but, unfortunately, those type of starts have been far and few between lately. Cannon’s 4.53 is below estimators ranging as high as a 5.06 dERA with LHBs owning a .362 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him. The walk rate and contact profile are fine. The 16.2 K% with an 8.8 SwStr% is the problem here. More contact overall means more hard contact, even with a league average percentage. As far as pitch modeling, the four pitches Cannon throws more than 11.1% of the time range from 49 to 57, forming a competent 4.19 Bot ERA with a 92 Stuff+ working up to a 99 Pithcing+, suggesting there’s a back end of the rotation arm in there somewhere.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.4 K%, 90 Road, 82 L7 days)
DEF: -28/-23
B30: 3.94
BSR: 2
First off, let’s say massive defensive edge for the Guardians. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, are they far better than the White Sox in any other aspect of this contest? Starting pitching? Barely, maybe a quarter of a run. Offensively? Better, but the gap isn’t incredibly large. The bullpen gap is not that large. In fact, aside from Clase, the Cleveland pen pitched one inning on Monday, resulting in a two run homer. I have the Guardians favored on the road in this spot, just not nearly as much as the books do (+184).
Athletics @ Astros
Osvaldo Bido allowed more than two runs for just the second time in eight starts (not counting an early season one before moving to the pen), but his 17.3 K-BB% in a starting role is three points better than his season rate. He’s only allowed seven barrels all year (4.0%) with a 27 HardHit%. That’s a must when you generate as few ground balls as he does (29.6%). The result is a 2.75 xERA that’s more than half a run below his 3.41 ERA, a 3.37 FIP that’s in line with it and contact neutral estimators ranging from a 4.24 SIERA to a 4.64 xFIP and dERA. By actual results or Statcast xwOBA, batters from either side of the plate are below .300 against Bido. There’s some good and some bad in his PitchingBot grades, contrasting a 102 Stuff+, which dips to a 96 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.6 K%, 120 Home, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -39/-15
B30: 4.17
BSR: -9
SpAghetti failed to strike out any of the 11 Reds he faced last time out. In fact, he walked three and nine scored before he even got three meatballs. It was part defensive betrayal, but he’s now walked seven of his last 40 batters. He’s at a similar amount of innings as last year, so I can’t really blame fatigue. Let’s just hope it’s a small blip, but the A’s are no pushovers. The walk rate is up to 10.9% on the season with 8.0% Barrels/BBE. Even with a 27.5 K%, his best estimator is a 3.97 xERA, though all except a 4.41 dERA are more than half a run better than his 4.82 ERA (.321 BABIP, 69 LOB% seven unearned runs). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .307 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Every pitch he throws more than 10% of the time exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade, but his 94 Stuff+ (98 Pitching+) isn’t as encouraging.
Opp wRC+: 101 (25.1 K%, 83 L7 days)
DEF: 2/-19
B30: 3.67
BSR: 1
I like SpAghetti’s potential, but he’s not as consistent as you want him to be. I have he and Bido rated fairly evenly. Thus, even giving Houston significant offensive and bullpen edges, I can’t get to +160 for the A’s with a comparable defensive product on the field and better base running.
Pitcher Workloads
Yu Darvish faced 14 batters (63 pitches) in his return from a three month IL stay without a rehab start. Maybe twice through the lineup here?
Yoshi Yamamoto faced seven and then 10 batters in a pair of short rehab starts and will certainly be on a much shorter pitch count too.
That's all for Monday night. Be back in the early afternoon for daily fantasy notes and maybe some more updates.
--- Tuesday Afternoon ---
Daily Fantasy Notes
An 11 game slate without any weather issues and little impact includes four protected environments:
Toronto: who knows?
Houston: almost always closed, though a slightly larger chance of being open with cooler weather
Seattle: open 75% of the time, but without disclosure
Arizona: already confirmed closed
San Francisco is the only team not to confirm a pitcher, though Hayden Birdsong is projected in a lot of places.
5+ runs: Guardians
4.5+ runs: Twins, Astros, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Dodgers
< 4 runs: Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, A’s, Mariners, Giants, Cubs, Rangers, Padres, White Sox, Angels
TOP PITCHERS
Pablo Lopez is my top arm on the board and a solid value on either site. As such, he’s in both my DraftKings and FanDuel single entry lineups. He broke a three start scoreless streak last time out against the Rays, but still threw 6.2 innings of quality ball, striking out nine. At least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, Lopez has 10 quality starts of more than six innings, more than one run in only seven of those. Somehow, this guy still has a 4.05 ERA with a 20.9 K-BB% and average contact profile. With 22 of 35 barrels leaving the park, a 3.57 FIP is his worst estimator with batters from either side of the plate between a .290 and .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Lopez’s fastball (41.1%, 61 PB grade) is the top run value pitch on the board (counting stat) and he should use it to dominate the Angels (-0.54 wFA/C is second worst), who have a sub-90 wRC+ on the road, against RHP or over the last seven days.
SpAghetti is a high upside, volatile play, but my second rated pitcher overall. I was able to fit both into a competent single entry DK lineup. He’s facing an offense that’s more dangerous than people realize, but also has plenty of strikeouts in it. For more, see the game notes above.
There’s a small gap after this before we get to some work horse arms in Bassitt, Eovaldi and Lugo.
One interesting pitcher, who doesn’t rate too much below that group is Aaron Civale. He’s another volatile arm, who’s 13.6 K-BB% since joining the Brewers is actually lower than his season rate (14.5%), but he’s struck out 14 of his last 46 Cardinals and Giants and now he gets a rematch with the Giants (93 wRC+ v RHP) in a better environment. I did consider paying down from SpAghetti to Civale on DK. Eight of nine projected Giants exceed a 23.5 K% against RHP.
Other Pitching Notes: Imanaga (FB 53%, 65 PB grade) is facing a Dodger offense that surprisingly struggles to hit the heat (-0.17 wFA/C), but this is a healthier lineup than it’s been all season and a power friendly park with the wind blowing out nearly 10 mph to center field. We’ve already covered workload issues on Darvish and Yamamoto.
Top Pens: Padres, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Twins, Orioles
Bottom Pens: Red Sox, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, Reds
Workload issues: NYY Cousins (3 of L4 – 55), TEX Yates (4 of L5, but Mon. off – 47), NYM Diaz (4 of L6 – 58), CIN Diaz (4 of L5 – 55), SFG (Walker 3 of L5, but Mon. off – 49)
Offense
I’ve found myself gravitating to Minnesota bats. They have the second highest run total, but a lot of affordable bats because they platoon half their lineup. Left-handed batters are within a point of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Canning this year with RHBs above .320 as well. If he’s in the leadoff spot, Julian (100 wRC+, .138 ISO v RHP, 102 wRC+ L30 days) joins Wallner (172, .315, 133) and Larnach (122, .206, 133) as some of the best values on the site. Miranda (155, .198, 80) fits the bill from the opposite side. Every projected Minnesota bat has at least a 105 wRC+ at home this year. Mentioned above, the terrible pen following Canning as well.
The Cardinals (4.19) are more middle of the board, but I’ve not been very impressed by Lowder through two starts (18.2 BB%). Again, cheap LHBs like Burleson (132, .192, 92), Nootbaar (116, .181, 146) and Donovan (115, .144, 105) stand out. The Reds also show up as a bullpen to attack above, with an overworked closer.
Another bullpen worth attacking in the most hitter friendly environment on the board (though it’s a bit cool) is at Fenway. Crawford looked better last time out, but had been struggling with batters from either side between a .290 and .315 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Baltimore bats have been struggling as well, dropping them to a 4.26 implied run line. Gunnar Henderson (165, .279, 139) is my top bat on the board. O’Hearn (123, .173, 60), Mullins (if batting 2nd again) (120, .193, 172) and Santander (134, .278, 118) rate well here too.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Gunnar Henderson
2 – Bobby Witt (175, .279, 154 – Stroman .318, .328 v RHB) – it’s not necessarily an offensive environment upgrade, but it is a power park upgrade.
3 – Jarren Duran (157, .282, 133 – Suarez .333, .307 v LHB) – leadoff bat in the top run environment against a contact prone pitcher
Top Value Bats
(FD) Julien (if leadoff) – Burleson – Nootbaar – Wallner – Miranda – Donovan – Lawrence Butler – O’Hearn – Mullins – Laranach
(DK) Julien – Nootbaar – Donovan – Wallner – Larnach – Pavin Smith – Burleson – Butler
Some quick notes on the two names not touched upon above. I told you SpAghetti was volatile with LHBs owning a .325 wOBA and .307 xwOBA against him. Butler has had a breakout season (136, .253, 195), always bats leadoff and still costs less than $4K. Smith (146, .278, 199) homered three times in, I believe, a Verlander start a few days ago, while LHBs have a healthy .310 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Eovaldi.
Additional Notes
Left-handed batters have a .362 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against Jonathan Cannon. Taking all factors (weather, park factors, defense) into account. This rates as my second best attack spot on the board (for LHBs). If Birdsong is the man in San Fran tonight, RHBs hold an unignorable .383 wOBA and .393 xwOBA against him. Despite the surface results, RHBs have a .310 wOBA, but .363 xwOBA against Peterson.
My top rated power bats (ISO and HRs and stuff) are Judge, Soto, Wallner, Stanton, Teoscar. Takes park, weather, opposing pitcher and own ISO split into account.
Best combos to run on tonight are Imanaga/Amaya & Lowder/Stephenson. Toughest Lugo/whoever, Canning/O’Hoppe.
Top running threats (sprint speed, pitcher hold, catcher throw) are Elly De La Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, several Cardinals (see Loweder/Stephenson above).
That’s it for now. Perhaps more updates later.
Update 3:05 EST
Landon Roupp, a reliever, will open the game for the Giants. Birdsong will not follow. He's been pushed back to Thursday. Full bullpen game? Though Roupp did throw four innings last time out.
Update 4:10 EST
Gained a whopping 5.45% on Washington F5. Don't hate the full game under 7.5 either.
Update 4:30 EST
Tampa Bay llineup shuffle and no Realmuto (two days in a row?). Played PHI o3.5 (-145). Bradley 32 runs (31 earned) last 30.1 IP w/ eight HRs on 111 barrels. Phillies 113 Hm wRC+, 103 v RHIP, 142 L7 days. Rays a below average defensive lineup.
Update 4:55 EST
Mets have found five LHBs to jam in against Bassitt. Nimmo and Winker swap lineup spots.
Update 5:30 EST
Bill Miller listed in Chicago (AL). If true, big bump for pitchers. Line move 1.2% against the White Sox.
Update 5:35 EST
Winn out for Cards. Bunch of guys listed above move up the order.
Update 5:50 EST
A lot going on in Houston and very little of it good for what's written above. Roof confirmed closed. Butler is out of the lineup. Bido has been replaced by Sears, which I see as a negative for the OAK play. Loss of less than 1% though. I don't hate the OAK play here, but much less value. Would not have played this pitcher at this price. Only good news is for our SpAghetti DFS lineup.
Update 6:40 EST:
No Teoscar or Smith in Dodger LU. Cubs, Rangers and Brewers still not out. On to Wednesday.
Add comment
Comments