It was not really my intention to miss Friday, but seven TBDs after 7 pm on Thursday was a bit much. You need information to prepare analysis, most importantly, who the hell is pitching! Hopefully the league and its teams have learned their lesson from my one day boycott.
Anyway, back today in the usual long form format for nine games, all below. Daily fantasy notes will follow, though I do wonder why sites didn't just boot the late game and go with the eight game 6:40 - 7:40 slate. That would seem to make more sense. The larger Tuesday board will likely be another experimental format, possibly more of a live blogging type thing.
Lastly, we're at the point of the season where I start confusing cities' baseball and football teams, so, no, the Pirates aren't really playing the Dolphins on Monday, if you see something like that slip through below (and for the rest of the season).
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Rays @ Phillies
Tyler Alexander has PitchingBot grades reaching 60 on four different pitches. He’s also allowed 15 runs and seven home runs (seven barrels) over his last 18 innings. A bit of misfortune there against a rough schedule (Twins, Mariners, Dodgers, Diamondbacks), but with just an 8.8 K-BB% and 24.2 GB%, he probably deserves a bit of that beating. That said, his 5.66 ERA is nowhere near his contact neutral estimators, dropping as low as a 4.27 SIERA. The FIP and xERA, however, are within a quarter run of actual results. Alexander has been smoked by RHBs (.364 wOBA, .370 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 123 (114 Home, 149 L7 days)
DEF: 5/-7
B30: 3.94
BSR: 2
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) over his last four starts (27.2 IP) with a 22.9 K-BB% (14.4% season), while sustaining a 59 GB% with 6.3% Barrels/BBE and a 37.5 HardHit%. On the season, his 3.45 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators (eight home runs, 26 barrels). Right-handed batters within four points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA have been the better side against him. With PitchingBot grades between 51 and 61, Sanchez produces a 3.29 Bot ERA, but just a 95 Stuff+ mark that works it’s way up to a 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 111 (25.1 K%, 79 L7 days)
DEF: 9/1
B30: 3.87
BSR: 3.87
We only have full game line and total as of this writing, but I’m looking to check out all totals here. We have both offenses in their better splits here. Ironically, as soon as I emphasizes Philadelphia’s league average performance against RHP, they could fire.
Update 4:35 EST: Some strange happenings here. Alexander is expected to bulk tonight, via in the know TB beat writers, yet the Phils have loaded up the lineup with LHBs. Also like the price on Sanchez's K prop (6.5o +134). Struck out 23 of L80 (13.9 SwStr%) w/ at least 7 in all three starts. At least 25 BF in 8 straight starts. Seven in TB LU at least 22.5 K% v LHP.
Red @ Braves
Over his last five appearances (all starts), Nick Martinez has allowed 19 runs (15 earned) over 24.1 innings with seven of his 18 strikeouts over that span (10 K-BB%, 8.2 SwStr%) coming in his last outing, against the Astros, of all teams. He does have a competent 15.9 K-BB% on the season with just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, though nine of his 20 barrels came over this five start stretch too. Martinez tends to excel out of the pen and struggle in a starting role and it seems we’re beginning to see the continuation of that pattern here. He’s a difficult pitcher to evaluate with about half his work coming in relief and estimators widely ranging from a 3.49 xERA to a 4.07 dERA. His .293 xwOBA allowed on the season just to .341 over the last 30 days. I don’t even know why I’ve written this many words about a pitcher who’s not even confirmed for Monday yet.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.3 K%, 73 L7 days)
DEF: -12/-19
B30: 4.23
BSR: -11
Charlie Morton has allowed a total of 10 runs over his last 27.2 innings, but only the first of his last five starts was a quality start, as they’ve regularly been pulling him in the middle of the six inning since, despite a 20.2 K-BB% over this span that increases his season rate to 15.4%. It’s not a conscious effort to limit Morton, as he’s hit 100 pitches in each of his last two starts. The contact profile has improved over this stretch as well (7.4% Barrels/BBE, 35.3 HardHit%). He’s still at 9.6% Barrels/BBE on the year, producing a 4.59 xERA that’s the worst of estimators all within half a run of his 4.24 ERA and starting at 3.96 (xFIP). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .327 and .341 wOBA and xwOBA against him. All of that very similar to his pitch modeling evaluations (4.36 Bot ERA, 95 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.8 K%, 92 Road, 89 L7 days)
DEF: -2/-24
B30: 2.83
BSR: 1
Update 5 EST: India remains out. Steer bats leadoff. Played CIN +130 F5. Morton's 4.59 ERA, Atlanta's struggling offense and poor defense...where's the large edge? The base running is atrocious too.
Marlins @ Pirates
With just a 3.78 ERA through 47.2 innings (nine starts), it’s safe to say Valente Bellozo is getting away with some shit (It’s okay, there’s only like 20 people still reading). He’s boasting just a 7.9 K-BB% with 10.7% Barrels/BBE and a 44.7 HardHit%. Despite that contact profile, a 5.38 xERA is his lowest estimator Bellozo has stranded 83.3% of his runners with just a .248 BABIP. His 46.8 Z-O-Swing is easily worst on today’s board, which means he isn’t fooling anyone and they aren’t missing (8.2 SwStr%). In his case, it’s actually same-handed batters doing most the damage (.377 wOBA, .387 xwOBA). His 70 Stuff+ and 89 Pitching+ are third worst and tied for worst, respectively, among pitchers with at least 40 innings since his late June debut.
Opp wRC+: 84 (89 Home, 56 L7 days)
DEF: -22/3
B30: 3.73
BSR: 2
Paul Skenes, who we’ve been told is going to face strict workload restrictions the rest of the way, threw 100 pitches, facing 23 Cubs after 83 and 87 pitches in his previous two starts. It still only got him through five innings with four walks. He averaged 99 mph on his heater for the first time in 10 starts in striking out six Cubs, the same number of Cubs he struck out in his previous outing. While all of Skenes’ estimator are at least 0.6 runs above his 2.13 ERA, none reach three with batters from either side of the plate below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA. Pitch modeling is a bit perplexing with just 103 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks, but also what I think might be some Statcast pitch modeling misclassifications, making it difficult to match up certain individual pitch grades. Perhaps, they’ll let Skenes go deeper against post-season contenders, which makes me guess we’re dialed back to 80 again tonight?
Opp wRC+: 89 (81 Road, 83 L7 days)
DEF: -17/-18
B30: 4.39
BSR: 1
I can’t believe I’m even considering this, but I feel like I nearly have enough to go Marlins (+210) with Skenes expected to be limited to around five innings again and the Marlins actually maybe having the rare matchup where they’re not decimated by offensive comparisons, along with the better bullpen.
Update 5:10 EST: This is ugly (MIA +225). Skenes is a massive pitching edge, but it's their only edge. MIA equal or better offense/defense/bullpen/base running.
Royals @ Yankees
With a 3.35 ERA that’s nearly a quarter of a run below all estimators and well below his 4.38 xERA, you never really know what you’re going to get from Brady Singer from start to start. The only thing he excels at is eliminating free passes (6.5%). Everything else from an overall standpoint is pretty standard, although when we get into splits, his K-BB drops to 14.8% on the road this year with a 16.9 HR/FB and LHBs exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. You may follow where I’m going here, but LHBs away from Kansas City have a .448 wOBA against Singer with nine of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. The crazy thing is that he’s excellent enough against RHBs (.231 wOBA, .274 xwOBA overall, .204 wOBA on the road) that the entire package works sometimes. I don’t have a ton of faith that his 40.9% sinker (1.2 RV/100, 51 PB grade) and 42.1% slider (0.4 RV/100, 45 PB grade) approach is going to work that well here.
Opp wRC+: 123 (10.7 K-BB%, 16 HR/FB, 119 Home)
DEF: 27/8
B30: 3.89
BSR: -8
Only 11 of Carlos Rodon’s 28 starts have been at home this year, where his 19.1 K-BB% slightly improves to 20% and his .314 xwOBA against improves to .293. Subtle, but important because it matches up with a Kansas City offense that struggles away from home (93 wRC+). Three of Rodon’s last five starts have ended with a total of one run allowed, while he’s allowed nine in the other two. More recently, he’s struck out 19 of his last 47 Nationals and Rangers, two below average, but contact prone offenses. We know the problem is the 10.2% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed with 26 of his 42 barrels turning into home runs, although only 10 of those have occurred at home, where batters from either side are below a .290 wOBA against him. Overall, estimators are all within half a run of his 4.19 ERA with only his SIERA (3.78) dipping below four. Also essentially a fastball (49.2%, 0.5 RV/100, 60 PB grade) and slider (26.1%, -1.1 RV/100, 55 PB grade), he differs from Singer in that his PitchingBot grades are better (despite negative slider run value) and Stuff+ absolutely loves him (123).
Opp wRC+: 95 (18.5 K%, 8.1 HR/FB, 56 L7 days)
DEF: 2/16
B30: 3.94
BSR: -1
DFS Notes; This six game Monday slate is a mess, not weather wise, though there certainly will be some impact, but just an overall mess because not only were we waiting for a pair of unconfirmed pitchers, but two of the confirmed pitchers were swapped out. One protected environment. The roof is often open, but that information has been more difficult to learn in a timely manner. This is an offensive slate, make no doubt about it with two offenses in the five and a half run range with four more exceeding four and a half runs with just three offenses not reaching four implied runs. I’m content with paying down for pitching here and you may be surprised at my top rated arms tonight.
We start with just above 70 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left-center in the Bronx. The Yankees (4.86) are essentially tied for the third highest team total, while the Royals (3.64) are third from the bottom. The contact prone nature of the Kansas City lineup is only slightly countered by their poor road performance. Rodon is a bit better at home. He’s fine. He’s a top half of the board arm tonight, but the most expensive arm on DK ($8.8K) and FD ($9.7K). I have Singer rated similarly, though with far more risk, but a bit cheaper. I did a dig to see what the numbers like about Singer and he actually has one of the heaviest workloads on average among today’s starters and the Kansas City defense behind him helps. The Royals have the potential to line up with nine from the right side (.328 wOBA, .320 xwOBA v Rodon). Witt (145 wRC+, .216 ISO, 166 wRC+ L30 days, 141 wRC+ Road) is the top bat in this lineup, but not my top SS tonight. Tommy Pham (116, .207, 64, 80) rates well if still batting leadoff and Blanco (148, .210, 283, 128) may be a top value. Rodon is terrible at holding runners and Yankee pen estimators are bottom third of the league L30 days with Cousins (41) working two of the last three. Yankee bats of interest are always Judge (206, .357, 213, 230), but more so Soto (187, .301, 163, 180) in this matchup and Wells (130, .215, 121, 124). With Singer a very tough pitcher to run on and the Kansas City pen a top half one over the last 30 days, a bottom half of the order Chisholm (121, .206, 166, 97) doesn’t rate as strongly. Erceg has thrown back to back days, but only 27 pitches.
Update 5:30 EST: Jim Wolf is the listed umpire. If this is true, bump to pitchers. Dairon Blanco, Freddy Fermin and Paul DeJong sit against a LHP in favor of Gurriel, Massey and Hampson. Seems like a downgrade. Dominguez makes his debut for Yankees, but Verdugo is still in the lineup!! Seriously, this is about jamming seven LHBs in against Singer.
Mets @ Blue Jays
Since Paul Blackburn was traded to the Mets, he’s increased his cutter usage to 27% (22%) season. Despite it’s -1.5 RV/100, the pitch has earned a 64 PitchingBot grade, only making it a top 10 cutter among those with at least 70 innings pitched. When the cutter is on, he’s been effective. That’s been three of his five Mets’ starts. When it’s not on, you get the -1.5 RV/100 in his other two starts. He’s also returning from a short IL stint from a non-pitching injury, going 6.2 innings and 24 batters deep in a single rehab start. His full season 4.66 ERA is slightly above estimators ranging from a 4.12 dERA to a 4.64 FIP with an extreme reverse split (RHBs .386 wOBA, .361 xwOBA, LHBs .302, .272).
Opp wRC+: 106 (20.1 K%, 115 L7 days)
DEF: 0/7
B30: 3.83
BSR: -6
Chris Bassitt can still pop a big one like his 6.2 innings of one run ball with nine strikeouts at Fenway two starts back, but that’s more the exception than the expectation at this point, as it’s his only quality start in his last five. I’ve been harping on it all season, so regular readers will know that the problem remains LHBs (.377 wOBA, .380 xwOBA) with around 100 points of separation. The good news for Bassitt (not yet confirmed) is that he’ll likely only be facing three with McNeil out, unless the Mets decide to start D.J. Stewart. Bassitt’s estimators are all within one-quarter run of his 4.30 ERA with a concurring 4.24 Bot ERA and 94 Stuff+ only working up to a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 108 (109 Road)
DEF: 20/25
B30: 4.06
BSR: -6
DFS Notes: A 98 PRF with the roof closed, moving to 102 on average when it’s open, the Mets (4.71) have the fifth best run total on the slate with the Blue Jays (4.29) more lower-middle. Megill (yah, he’s pitching instead of Blackburn for some reason) is a middle of the board arm for me. He’s always had the upside, but hurts himself and this is a dangerous, not very high upside spot. I have Bassitt somewhat in line with Rodon and Singer, as a top five arm against a predominantly right-handed lineup and, again, defense and workload make him pop a bit more than you’d expect here, but it is an incredibly weak pitching slate. LHBs have a .294 wOBA and .327 xwOBA against Megill with LHBs .352 and .330. Vlad (162, .222, 163, 189) is becoming a matchup proof bat, but not my favorite bat at either third or first. Horwitz (159, .230, 161, 110) and Springer (104, .179, 107, 104) are other bats of interest here. Megill is tough to run on and Alvarez can be, but Torrens has thrown out 65% of runners, so I guess who catches matters a bit here. Neither has hit much and Alvarez does other things well defensively. NYM pen is on the edge of top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. We know we want LHBs against Bassitt, which should include Lindor (131, .198, 187, 134), Nimmo (109. .165, 84, 132) and Winker (131, .176, 123, 108). Bassitt and Kirk are nearly impossible to run on as a combo (more Kirk), while the Blue Jays have bottom third pen estimators L30 days with just about everybody working on Sunday, but nobody particularly overloaded.
Update 5:35 EST: Oh, come the F on! Now Bassitt has been swapped out too. Burr will start, but Mets lined up like they're expecting a LHP with Winker sitting. Possibly Yarbrough? No clue on the roof situation. We can't even get pitchers straight.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Cade Povich is coming off 7.2 innings of five hit, no run or walk, 10 strikeout domination against the…White Sox. Still, dominating them is better than not and perhaps it’s a step forward for the 50 Future Value grade prospect (Fangraphs), who has otherwise greatly struggled with at the major league level. How badly? Well, in just 12 starts, including that one, he still has a 5.76 ERA with only one estimator below four and that’s a 4.14 xERA, despite 9.7% Barrels/BBE because those barrels represent 27.1% of his contact. Povich did record his best game average velocity last time out (92.6 mph), but only by 0.1 mph and only 0.4 mph ahead of his season average. There were no major pitch usage changes in that start, but he has seemingly ditched the cutter since returning to the team. Pitching Bot grades ranging from 42 to 54 precede a 4.59 Bot ERA that’s in line with 88 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28.2 K%, 73 L7 days)
DEF: -2/12
B30: 3.92
BSR: 7
Brayan Bello has sandwiched eight innings of two hit ball and nine strikeouts against the Blue Jays with 10.1 innings of nine run ball and just one more strikeout than walks against the Diamondbacks and Mets. Every time it looks like he may be getting into a rhythm, it never lasts. He’s struggled with LHBs (.358 wOBA, .338 xwOBA), although only separated by eight points of xwOBA (60 by actual wOBA). The good news is that his 4.75 ERA exceeds all estimators by more than one-third of a run, contact neutral estimators by more than two-thirds of a run. The 13.3 K-BB% is average, but keeping 51.7% of his contact on the ground helps, though the 41.4 HardHit% gives some of that back. Pitch modeling is what the Red Sox hope his results will eventually be. A three pitch mix with PitchingBot grades between 52 and 58, resulting in a 3.69 Bot ERA and a 101 Stuff+ works up to a 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 115 (21 K%, 113 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: -10/-18
B30: 4.56
BSR: 0
DFS Notes: Around 70 degrees with a double digit wind out to center in the naturally most positive run environment on the board, the O’s (4.63) are middle of the board with the Red Sox (4.87) third from the top. Povich is cheap enough and there are more than enough strikeouts in the projected Boston lineup that there’s justification to exposure on both sides of this matchup with the upside he showed us last time out. I have Bello rated similarly, but priced higher in the tougher matchup. RHBs have a .380 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against Povich with RHBs at .309 and .308. I think Duran (92, .102, 141, 129) holds in this spot. He’s the only projected Boston bat exceeding a 101 wRC+ L30 days. Half the lineup doesn’t even reach 75. O’Neill (198, .379, 101, 101) is my highest rated Boston bat. The Orioles have middling pen estimators L30 days. Batters from the left side smoke Bello (.357 wOBA, .338 xwOBA). Henderson (165, .278, 143, 152) is the top SS and one of the top bats overall. O’Hearn (125, .175, 62, 141) is a top FD value. Basically, every LHB outside Holliday (47 wRC+ L30 days) rates well here, though are much better FD values. Bello is tough to run on, but Wong is not. The Red Sox have the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:55 EST: Slight dip in wind speed below 10 mph. Made a pair of small plays here. Just one in BOS LU below a 21.7 K% v LHP (Povich o5.5 Ks +130). We're dealing with a pair of marginal pitchers against a pair of solid offenses, in Baltimore's case great, even if they're struggling and juggled the lineup (no Holliday, Mullins bats second). BOS terrible defense and bullpen, but strong base running (o9.5 -102).
Angels @ Twins
I absolutely expected Reid Detmers to strikeout 10 of 23 Dodgers over six three hit innings when I wrote this…
Maybe Reid Detmers didn’t really deserve his demotion with results (6.14 ERA) much worse than estimators averaging around four with a 4.15 xFIP his worst non-FIP estimator. Ten home runs on 16 barrels (9.0%), but just a 36.5 HardHit% and 15.5 K-BB%, he stranded just 61.7% of his runners with a .333 BABIP. Statcast (xwOBA) decreases batters from either side by nearly 40 points from their actual wOBA against Detmers. The slider (23.5%) was his worst graded pitch (47 PB), but he had two PitchingBot grades reaching 60 (change 15.6%, curve 14.9%), forming a 3.97 Bot ERA with near average 97 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks.
He’s up to a 17 K-BB% with a 5.87 ERA that’s way above estimators ranging from 3.67 dERA to a 4.09 FIP, while his Stuff+ dropped to 96 after that start. This is just as tough, if not a tougher spot.
Opp wRC+: 109 (121 Home)
DEF: -20/-5
B30: 4.31
BSR: -3
David Festa has been fairly limited, reaching a career high 90 pitches, while not having exceeded 21 batters faced since his second start. There’s some times through the order issues apparently (.184 wOBA against first time through, .458 second time, .253 to 22 batters third time though), but the overall body of work through 47.1 innings has been near elite (22.6 K-BB%, 37.8 HardHit%). Not that you’d know by the 4.75 ERA or batters from either side of the plate exceeding a .310 wOBA against him. Even 3.81 FIP is nearly a run better than actual results with additional estimators ranging as low as a 3.26 SIERA. Festa has stranded just 70.5% of his runners (on the low side, though not egregious) with a .303 BABIP (a bit higher than league average, but not much) and 15.4 HR/FB with eight of 11 barrels leaving the park. Statcast even drops LHBs with a .289 xwOBA, though it can’t help him much against RHBs (.317). Pitching Bot grades are good (53-58), rather than great (3.88 Bot ERA) with 102 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ socres.
Opp wRC+: 87 (85 Road, 68 L7 days)
DEF: 5/-4
B30: 3.51
BSR:-7
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind in from the right field pole area, The Twins (4.33) are middle of the board with the Angels (3.17) the low team on the board. Welp, here goes nothing. Detmers’ upside makes him my top pitcher on the board. I hate the spot, but there are some strikeouts here. It’s very volatile and this pitching board sucks. How much does it suck? Festa is a top three arm for me despite the workload limitations. He’s also top three in cost though. Batters from the right-hand side have a .328 wOBA, but just .288 xwOBA against Detmers. Santana (163, .303, .97, 106), if healthy, would be the most interesting Minnesota bat, but they don’t really pop in this spot. Jeffers (137, .274, 120, 134) works behind the plate. Lewis (124, .219, 54, 189) works too, in the first real slump of his career. No other projected Minnesota bat reaches a 110 wRC+ v LHP this year, but only Farmer is below a 105 wRC+ at home. Detmers is very easy to run on though and the Angels have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days. I’m okay punting all Angels against Festa and the sixth best pen estimators L30 days.
Update 6:15 EST: Angels lineup getting uglier and uglier.
Guardians @ White Sox
I must warn you, it gets pretty ugly from here on out.
With 22 runs (21 earned) over his last 29.2 innings, Ben Lively has finally cracked the four ERA mark, though his underlying numbers suggest that should have happened long ago. Posting just a 5.8 K-BB% over his last nine starts brings his season rate down to 11.5%. All estimators exceed his 4.07 ERA, running as high as a 4.84 FIP and if you want to go contact neutral, 4.58 xFIP. Batters from either side are between a tight .314 to .325 wOBA and xwOBA range and the pitch modeling…well, his 68 Stuff+ is behind only Chris Flexen (130 IP min.). Is a 93 Pitching+ and 4.78 Bot ERA much better?
Opp wRC+: 75 (9.1 HR/FB, 75 Home, 77 L7 days)
DEF: 10/29
B30: 3.79
BSR: 0
Nick Nastrini is not yet confirmed and considering his -5.0 K-BB%, I can completely understand why. On top of the 20% walk rate, he’s allowed 13.6% Barrels/BBE…on just a 33 HardHit%. The barrels are responsible for 41.2% of his hard contact. What kind of xERA does that spit out? How about 6.70. And that’s his second best one and still far below his 7.79 ERA. Batters from the left-hand side exceed a .440 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Did I mention he’s facing Cleveland? The craziest thing about this is that his 100 Stuff+ suggests there’s something there and it’s 32 points better than Lively.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.4 K%, 91 Road, 118 L7 days)
DEF: -28/-23
B30: 3.91
BSR: 2
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to left, the Guardians (5.44) are essentially tied for the top run total with the White Sox (3.56) ahead of the Angels. This is where it’s really a mess. Lively has been replaced by Joey Cantillo with just a 7.3 K-BB% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE through four starts, but why not against the White Sox for just $6.2K. He does have an 11.3 SwStr% and paired with Detmers, lets you do anything else you want. Nastrini has lost his starting role. Jared Shuster will open. Where they go from there may be Natrini or it may be straight bullpen game. If it’s Nastrini, you hold your Cleveland LHBs tightly, but we don’t know that for sure. Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez probably play strongly either way. I’m not sure what to do here, but the ability to stack Dodgers makes it a bit easier. In a small sample, LHBs have absolutely smoked Cantillo above a .450 wOBA and xwOBA with RHBs Vaughn (116, .162, 109, 96) is the only Chicago bat doing any damage to LHP. I mean, most the projected lineup is below a .100 ISO. White Sox pen estimators are on the edge of the bottom third of the league L30 days with Anderson (projected closer) pitching two straight (37).
Update 6:15 EST: Guardians seem set up for a lefty (Fry/Thomas/Noel), though still six LHBs. Rotogrinders is listing Nastrini as the bulk guy tonight. They don't always list bulk guys behind openers.
Cubs @ Dodgers
Poor Kyle Hendricks. He really doesn’t deserve that 6.60 ERA. The underlying statistics aren’t good, but they’re all more than a run better, running as low as a 4.47 xFIP. He’s struck out just 15.6% of the batters he’s faced, but everything else is fine (7.0 BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE, 33.3 HardHit%). Truth, LHBs have smoked him (.396 wOBA, .371 xwOBA), but the pitch modeling is nearly average. The only PitchingBot grade outside a 54 to 57 range is a fastball (30) that he throws just 12.6% of the time (12.6% too often). His 4.28 ERA is league average-ish and his 95 Stuff+ works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 115 (119 Home)
DEF: 9/23
B30: 3.87
BSR: 0
Walker Buehler is coming off of his second best start of the season (5 IP – 21 BF – 2 R – 2 HR – 2 BB – 6 K), but even that’s not very impressive when considering he was facing the Angels, though the two home runs accounted for 67% of his hard contact. That drives his K-BB all the way up to an even 10%...with 7.7% Barrels/BBE and a 38.5 HardHit%. Perhaps Buehler doesn’t deserve his 5.66 ERA either. He does have a 5.98 FIP, but 13 home runs on 14 barrels is a bit much. His best estimator is still just a 4.66 SIERA though. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while his 95 Stuff+ improves to a 100 Pitching+. Hey…same as Hendricks with slightly worse estimators! Okay, at least Buehler has only one PitchingBot grade below 50 with a 3.98 Bot ERA. That’s some encouragement.
Opp wRC+: 101 (105 Road)
DEF: 0/-8
B30: 3.94
BSR: 5
Do I think Hendricks is the better pitcher here? I don’t think so. I hope not for Buehler’s sake, but I can’t really find very good reasons to rate him much better than Hendricks. The Dodgers still have the better offense, but that gap has closed. Similar bullpen estimators, where the Cubs have actually been ahead of the Dodgers for most of the year in that department. Defensively is Chicago’s largest edge with a small base running one too, but the point is, they’re not really blown out in any aspect. Yet, the Dodgers are the Dodgers and they’re going to be overpriced with a “name” pitcher on the mound. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier (not much earlier tonight) info dumps.
DFS Notes: And here we go. It’s a very uncommon upper 80s with a double digit wind out to right, making the Dodgers (5.48) the top offense on the board, but the Cubs (4.02) perhaps a bit undervalued in this spot. At least that’s what I’m banking on in this environment. I’m not on either pitcher in this spot. Make your own judgements on if a low owned Buehler is ready to break out again. Do I think he’s as bad as the numbers above? Probably not, but maybe in this environment. I’m overweight on Cubs bats in multi entry (if I were playing). I think virtually every Cub has some value with Happ (130, .215, 163, 113) and Suzuki (133, .221, 127, 145) my top rated ones. This is a marginal running spot for the Cubs. The Dodgers have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days. The same things can be said about the Dodger lineup that we said about the Cubs, except they’re better and more expensive in a similar spot. Edman (37) is the only projected Dodger below a 100 wRC+ v RHP or over the L30 days. Smith (100, .156, 106, 98), Muncy (149, .278, 161, 169) and Lux (108, .156, 139, 90) are top bats at their positions, while the big three are just top bats overall. Hendricks/Amaya can be run on, while the Cubs have middling pen estimators L30 days.
Update 6:25 EST: Closing out Monday. No Cubs lineup, but they're as stable as any lineup. Not expecting surprises. Teoscar remains out. Taylor replaces and bats ninth. No change in CHC moneyline
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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