I certainly didn't anticipate liking every large dog on the board and having a couple of leftovers for Thursday morning, but it is football season and the MLB favorites seem to be overvalued, especially certain teams.
I've also reverted to the normal format because I thought I could complete nine games with relative ease. This may be the last time you see it though. I'm considering transitioning to a live blog though and just posting the thoughts for each game as I go. Somewhat like Wendesday's experimental format, but perhaps not entirely.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Astros @ Reds
Hunter Brown has failed to produce a quality start just three times in his last 17 tries with a 19.6 K-BB%, driving his season rate up to 16.4% after a rough start. He’s allowed just 4.5% Barrels/BBE with a 30.3 HardHit% over this span as well. His season ERA not sits at 3.55 with all estimators within one-third of a run. PitchingBot grades range from 46 to 56 (4.31 Bot ERA), while 103 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ marks are only slightly more optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.8 K%, 89 Home)
DEF: 4/-13
B30: 3.60
BSR: 1
Rhett Lowder made his major league debut on Friday, striking out six of 18 Brewers (11.7 SwStr%), but also walking four. He did not allow a barrel with only one hit batted ball. He’s a back end top 100 prospect (FG) with a 50 Future Value grade. The Reds are moving him aggressively with just six innings at AAA and an 18.2 K-BB% in 77.1 AA innings with a 50.9 GB%. Projection systems have him a bit above four and a half for the rest of the season.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19.5 K%, 126 L7 days)
DEF: -13/-18
B30: 4.14
BSR: -9
Update 12:20 EST: Upper 80s, no wind. Line movement towards Astros, almost enough to consider the home team, but I look for a larger margin with unknown pitchers, where I'm simply relying on projection systems.
Twins @ Rays
Pablo Lopez has lowered his ERA to 4.05 with three consecutive scoreless outings (20.2 IP). Seven of his last eight have been quality starts with two runs or fewer, while his 16.3 K-BB% over this stretch has actually decreased his season rate to 20.6%. With 22 of 34 barrels leaving the park, a 3.68 FIP is his only estimator within half a run of his ERA, running as low as a 3.25 dERA. Batters from either side of the plate are within a .292 to .303 wOBA and xwOBA. Lopez has just a 98 Stuff+ mark, but believe or not, he’s never exceeded 100 and his 105 Pitching+ is his career average too. Only the curveball (10.2%) sits below a 57 PitchingBot grade, though his 3.18 Bot ERA is 0.21 runs higher than last year.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.6 K%, 9.8 HR/FB)
DEF: 10/8
B30: 3.56
BSR: 1
Taj Bradley has allowed 32 runs (31 earned) over his last 28.1 innings with a 9.6 K-BB% (18.1% season), eight home runs on 11 barrels (10.7%) and a 51 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .302 and .322 wOBA and xwOBA this season with contact neutral estimators more than half a run below his 4.35 ERA, but a 4.20 FIP and 4.26 xERA nearly matching it. Bradley has a 116 Stuff+, which has actually increased to 118 over this span because go figure. His PitchingBot grades are far inferior to Lopez though, capping with a 57 grade fastball (42.1%) and nothing else above 51.
Opp wRC+: 112 (66 L7 days)
DEF: 5/-13
B30: 3.90
BSR: -3
Update 12:30 EST: Another line that's moved to the point where the home dog might hvae some value. I can't rely on Bradley right now though.
Mariners @ Athletics
After not breaking more than six innings in any of his first 11 starts, Bryan Woo has recorded seventh inning outs in each of his last six with a 20.7 K-BB% (17.3 K-BB%), 5.4% Barrels/BBE and a 32.1 HardHit%. The Mariners finally decided he was healthy and let him off the leash. He does have a .218 BABIP and 79.8 LOB% and, like all Seattle pitchers, declines on the road (14.5 K-BB%), but the 2.45 xERA nearly matches the 2.30 ERA. Everything else is at least a run higher with contact neutral estimators around four. Batters from either side max out below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA and this is a great spot for his fastball (50.3%, 1.3 RV/100, 62 PB grade). The A’s are the sixth worst fastball hitting team in the league (-0.38 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 101 (25 K%, 148 L7 days)
DEF: -13/5
B30: 4.071
BSR: 1
Joey Estes (unconfirmed) has been on a bit of a roll himself. Since an eight run beating at Fenway, he’s allowed 17 runs (16 earned) over 50 innings with a 15 K-BB% (13.6% season) and 8.7% Barrels/BBE, but just a 35.6 HardHit%. With his 23.6 GB% in the right park, this plays like at least an average pitcher, though on the season, a 4.01 xERA is his only estimator below a 4.24 ERA. He’s continued to give up home runs, but nothing else. Estes has just a 92 Stuff+ that works up to a 105 Pitching+. He just refuses to walk batters at home (3.7%) and why not in this park? His sweeper (20.4%, 1.8 RV/100, 66 PB grade) sets up as a weapon against the Mariners (-0.87 wSL/C is second worst). A 3.76 Bot ERA sees more than his results so far.
Opp wRC+: 98 (27.9 K%, 112 L7 days)
DEF: -33/-11
B30: 3.84
BSR: -4
The A’s (+126) continue to get no respect, despite the better offense, bullpen and base running here. And they’re also at home. Don’t get me wrong, I like Woo, but he can’t do it all. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 2:30 EST: Low to mid-80s with a light wind out right-center. No Crawford, Arozarena or Langeliers. You know, all the easy names to type. A small 0.8% gain on OAK. I expect this game to be all home runs and strikeouts.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Merrill Kelly has allowed 18 runs (16 earned) over 21.1 innings since returning from a long IL stay. He’s done this with just a 4.1 K-BB%, 13 barrels (16.9%) and a 48.1 HardHit%. His velocity had been significantly down (near two mph), but did bounce back to 92.3 mph, exactly what he averaged before hitting the IL, in his last start. He still got bombed because it was the Dodgers. Given that, it would be silly to talk about season stats and estimators, when he’s obviously a different pitcher when he’s fully healthy. He still has 101 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks, despite the health issues and the changeup is still a quality pitch (20.2%, 3.2%, 59 PB grade) and one the Giants are below average against (-0.1 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 92 (67 L7 days)
DEF: 22/10
B30: 3.39
BSR: 6
Over his last seven starts, Blake Snell has a 30.1 K-BB% and that’s with a DOUBLE DIGIT WALK RATE!! He’s allowed seven runs in 44.1 innings with just two barrels and 16 hard hit batted balls (20%). If he started the season like this, they would have already wrapped up his second straight Cy Young. Even considering the way he started, Snell has estimators all below his 3.56 ERA, including a 2.76 xERA, while batters from either side are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA. The three pitches he throws more than 10% of the time have PitchingBot grades from 58 to 69, including a dominant changeup (17.2%, 69 PB grade), one of the few pitches the Diamondback struggle with (-0.16 wCH/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.2 K%, 109 Road, 144 L7 days)
DEF: 1/19
B30: 3.58
BSR: 8 (almost all Carroll)
Update 2:45 EST: D'Backs playing three LHBs against Snell. Gutsy. But not like anyone has been hitting him lately. I'm close on under Kelly's K prop (+130), but have to run out for a bit and don't have time to properly dig in.
Nationals @ Pirates
Jake Irvin got smoked by a red hot Cubs offense last time out and has allowed at least four runs in six of his last 10 outings with no less than two. He’s done this with just a 10.7 K-BB% (14.7% season), but also 16 of 18 barrels (9.7%) leaving the yard with just a 32.4 HardHit%. Home runs account for more than one-quarter of his hard contact over this span. He’s due for some regression on that end. On the season, his 4.08 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators, essentially a league average pitcher with maybe too much of the plate (6.1%). He does have a couple of weapons with which he could counter the Pirates. The sinker (19%, 61 PB grade) and curve (32.7%, 58 PB grade) are both pitches the Pirates are bottom third of the league against.
Opp wRC+: 84 (88 Home)
DEF: -17/4
B30: 3.86
BSR: -1
With a 9.9 K-BB% and 9% Barrels/BBE, Bailey Falter’s 4.41 ERA is more than a quarter of a run below all non-FIP estimators. There’s really nothing positive or even interesting about his performance beyond that.
Opp wRC+: 94 (19.8 K%, 6.7 HR/FB)
DEF: -17/-23
B30: 4.30
BSR: 2
Irvin is struggling, but has flashed signs of being a decent pitcher, while Falter hasn’t. Even considering the struggles, I still have Irvin with about one-third of a run edge. With offenses a wash and the Nationals having the better defense, bullpen and base running, why are the Nationals even money in this game?
DFS Notes: Remember that our five game slate starts a half hour earlier tonight with only three outdoor games. Weather is interesting, but not expected to be very impactful. Four of 10 teams are above four and a half implied runs with one reaching five. Four are below four runs with one dropping below three.
We start in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the mid-70s and a light five mph wind in from center. This IS the middle of the board right here with the Pirates at 4.35 runs and the Nationals 4.15. I feel like you can easily fit today’s top pitchers in and don’t have to bother with sufficiently priced arms like Irvin or Falter here. With LHBs owning a .329 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against Irvin and RHBs at .300, you can guess which two bats I have interest in from Pittsburgh. Reynolds (133 wRC+, .198 ISO v RHP, 79 wRC+ L30 days, 137 wRC+ Home) and Cruz (121, .192, 124, 151). Irvin holds well, but Ruiz has a terrible arm. The Washington pen has top half of the league estimators L30 days, though Finnegan threw 26 pitches on Wednesday with Law (23) working two of his first three days back from the IL and Ferrer (31) going back to back as well. With all batters above a .310 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against Falter, I’m very interested in some Washington bats, especially Dylan Crews (278, .439, 101, 41) in short samples. He’s a top of the lineup bat with potential, who is not very expensive. Wood (101, .095, 150, 145) and Tena (47, .091, 108, 71) rate well here too. Andres Chaparro (132, .167, 98, 85) is less than $3K as well. Only two in the projected lineup (Yepez and Abrams) are below a 95 wRC+ L30 days. These boys have been hitting. You can run on Falter and Davis and Pittsburgh has the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days with a new closer.
Update 4:25 EST: Slight, maybe two degree, dip in temperature. No McCutchen, De La Cruz or Abrams. Grandal catches for PIT. Doesn't change the running situation at all. One of the worst throwers in the league. A 0.5% loss on the Nationals.
Phillies @ Marlins
Ranger Suarez has allowed has allowed 23 runs over his last 30 innings. Considering his month spent on the IL, his last quality start was in mid-June. His 13.8 K-BB% over this stretch brings his season mark down to 19.1%. He’s managed to contain contact fairly well (5.1% Barrels/BBE, 33.7 HardHit%), but with less than half his contact on the ground (47.9%). He probably doesn’t deserve all those runs with a 3.55 BABIP, 61.9 LOB% and as many barrels as home runs, but things are not going well. All estimators exceed his 3.02, but that said, the worst of them is still just a 3.38 SIERA. Pitch modeling has been fairly indifferent to Suarez all season with an 83 Stuff+ working all the way up to a 101 Pitching+ and all PitchingBot grades between 49 and 58.
Opp wRC+: 77 (87 Home)
DEF: 10/-9
B30: 4.08
BSR: 2
Look out! Adam Oller has struck out 14 of his last 44 Cubs and Giants, allowing a run over 11.2 innings, though his first start was bad enough that he’s still sitting on just an 11.9 K-BB% with four barrels (three in his first) and a 43.9 HardHit%. A 3.76 xERA is his only estimator not above four and a half, where his projections also lie. It’s been a wide split through three games with LHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA, but RHBs below .200. PitchingBot likes the fastball (55 PB grade) and Stuff+ kinda likes it all (107).
Opp wRC+: 102 (111 L7 days)
DEF: -17/11
B30: 3.87
BSR: 1
Bear with me here. You have a struggling pitcher as a sizeable road favorite against a poorly projected pitcher, who has shown something his last two starts. One offense is legit terrible, but the other is only average, despite being perceived as much more. The Marlins are putting the better defensive team on the field (look at the second numbers) with the better pen estimators and equal base running. I’m taking my shot with the fishies (+190).
DFS Notes: A 102 PRF with the roof closed, which is almost always is and we never know when it’s open (92 PRF on average), the Phillies (4.83) are third from the top with the Marlins (3.17) second from the bottom. Ranger Suarez is my number three overall arm tonight, but not a particularly great value around $10K right now. That said, the Marlins, aside from Norby’s small sample (146 wRC+, .303 ISO) aren’t good against LHP (that’s not why I’m playing them). I’m not keen on wiping out an entire offense from the player pool on a five game slate, but it is what it is. I may include a stack in multi, considering how Suarez is struggling. Oller does not rate very well, but in his small sample RHBs have a .158 wOBA and xwOBA against him, as stated above. Schwarber (120 wRC+, .260 ISO v RHP, 133 L30 days, 148 wRC+ Road), Harper (140, .247, 130, 120) and Marsh (125, .199, 127, 86) should get significant attention here. Oller/Fortes are difficult to run on and the Marlins have middle of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:45 EST: Bohm remains out. Loss of 0.47% on the Marlins.
Rockies @ Braves
While he hasn’t been close to lights out, Austin Gomber has posted quality starts in three of his last four against some good offenses (Orioles, Diamondbacks). The key to his game is throwing strikes (6 BB%, 10.9 K-BB%). The low strikeout rate and 10.3% Barrels/BBE are a problem, but the 41 HardHit% is more below average than terrible. Still, a 5.22 xERA is his only estimator not within one-third of a run of his 4.69 ERA. It’s tough to sugar coat this performance. Right-handed batters have a .348 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against him. However, his PitchingBot grades are interesting. The fastball is his only grade below 52. Of course, he throws it 41.2% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 111 (24.9 K%, 74 L7 days)
DEF: -3/13
B30: 4.61
BSR: -12
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed three runs over 17 innings since returning from the IL, only now he’s doing it with a 26.9 K-BB% (14.6 SwStr%) that merits his 2.00 ERA on the season. The thing is, he hasn’t been doing that all season. Lopez has posted a quality 16.8 K-BB%, but with 8.9% Barrels/BBE and the same 41.5 HardHit% as Gomber. I’m not at all saying they’re the same pitcher, but the xERA sits at 4.15 and with just eight of his 29 barrels leaving the yard, his best non-FIP estimator is a 3.71 xFIP. This is still an above average pitcher, but let’s say there’s been some fortune to his run prevention (6.6 HR/FB, 86.5 LOB%). What makes his accomplishments more amazing is that he’s doing it with two pitches and one is a 45 grade slider (28.5%), according to PitchingBot. The fastball (55.3%) is more good (55 PB grade) than great. There’s nothing that suggests his season results are anywhere close to sustainable…unless he keeps doing what he’s done since he came back from the IL, but that’s just three starts against mediocre offenses.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.9 K%, 77 Road, 84 L7 days)
DEF: -7/-24
B30: 3.48
BSR: 5
Again, what I have for you here is three things. Defense and base running. Colorado is far better at both. And lastly the fact that Lopez has been over-valued all season. I have the Rockies as sizeable dogs. They should NOT win this game, but I don’t have them particularly close to +230. It’s football season. Seems all the lines are spiked today.
DFS Notes: Near 80 degrees with a near double digit wind blowing in from it’s normal direction here, from near the left field pole. This is the one area where there’s any chance of interruption tonight, but it doesn’t appear to be significant at this point. The Braves top the board (5.17). The Rockies (2.83) bottom it? Because sports betting and daily fantasy are two things I keep completely separate (there’s a price for everything), I have to admit Reynaldo Lopez is my top pitcher tonight and I have him in both FD and DK single entry lineups. I guess we’re omitting two offenses on an five game slate (two that I’m betting, it’s insane). The Braves have a great pen behind Lopez. I don’t think Gomber is the worst SP2 punt on the board, but unnecessary. I also don’t hate going a bit underweight on Braves here, but do like Soler (137 wRC+, .219 ISO v LHP, 121 wRC+ L30 days, 97 wRC+ Home), Laureano (149, .250, 155, 91) and D’’arnaud (139, .328, 57, 122) a lot. Ozuna (157, .192, 157, 164) would be the top bat, but also most expensive. This is a neutral running spot, but the worst pen estimators in the league over the last month.
Update 4:50 EST: Slight dip in wind speed. Murphy in for D'arnaud. Just a 68 wRC+ and 36.7 K% vs LHP. Lot of Ks in the Atlanta lineup. A 0.45% loss on COL. None of these lines are moving.
Angels @ Rangers
Jack Koch…Kochano…Jack Koch has a 3.6 K-BB% with just eight barrels allowed (7.0%), but a 47.4 HardHit% through six starts and 32.2 innings. This includes four straight quality starts with a total of seven strikeouts. Maybe it’s the 59.3 GB%. His 4.96 ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators except for a 5.53 xERA. Jack throws his sinker 69.3% of the time and it’s a marginal pitch (-3 RV/100, 54 PB grade), but we’ll see how it fares against the worst offense in the league against sinkers (-0.87 SI/C). A 99 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ suggest there’s more to him than his early results. Left-handed batters exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs above .320.
Opp wRC+: 93 (20.5 K%, 109 L7 days) (incl. Wed for these last two games)
DEF: -19/-8
B30: 4.48
BSR: 2
Four straight quality starts with eight strikeouts in two of them and Cody Bradford continues to make himself a thing. He’s now at 56.1 innings with a 20.1 K-BB%. He has allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE, but only a 36.7 HardHit%. Estimators ranging from a 3.43 FIP to a 4.31 dERA exceed his 3.21 ERA (.232 BABIP). A 92 Stuff+ doesn’t seem very strong, but it works up to 101 Pitching+ with all PitchingBot grades ranging from 53 to 63, resulting in a 3.40 Bot ERA. His curveball and fastball are strongly graded pitch the Angels struggle against because they struggle against everything except sliders.
Opp wRC+: 98 (87 Road)
DEF: 22/12
B30: 4.27
BSR: -5
DFS Notes: Perfectly neutral 100 PRF with the roof closed, as it almost always is, the Rangers (4.86) are second on the board with the Angels (3.64) are third from the bottom. Any pitching interest here lies in my second overall arm tonight, Bradford, who is a great DK value ($7.9K), which I expect to result in massive ownership. I’ve done well with highly owned pitchers this week. It’s fine if you differentiate in other ways (like an Angels stack last night). We won’t be stacking Angels here, but holding the red hot Ward (157 wRC+, .168 ISO v LHP, 149 wRC+ L30 days, 113 wRC+ Road) and Neto (204, .242, 121, 102). Bradford/Heim can be run on and Texas, as evidenced against the Yankees, has a terrible pen (fifth worst estimators L30 days). Mentioned above, the numbers against Koch, this is where Seager’s absence hurts. Smith (114, 141, 97, 120) and Lowe (103, .118, 94, 112) are the only two above average bats projected against RHP with nobody reaching a .180 ISO. Langford (88, 116, 128, 119) is heating up though. The Angels have the third worst pen estimators L30 days (all the bad pens on this slate).
Update 5 EST: Roof confirmed closed. Rangers playing both catchers, Langford bats second. O'Hoppe & Rendon out. Significant line movement towards Rangers. We may see 80% Bradford ownership on DK.
Tigers @ Padres
Casey Mize struck out 10 of 23 Phillies a few starts back and still couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning. He hasn’t exceeded six strikeouts in any other start. I’ve been consistently taken in by his pitch modeling (108 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.92 Bot ERA) with just single pitch (curveball 7.6%) below a 52 PB grade and then consistently fed middling to poor results. Case in point, Mize’s 4.36 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators because just eight of his 28 barrels has left the park. His 10.8 K-BB% is unimpressive, especially with his ground ball rate only reaching 49.3% with a 42.8 HardHit%. He needs at least 10 points of separation there with such a low K-BB. Mize has the most trouble with RHBs (.357 wOBA, .332 xwOBA) and is in a hell of a spot tonight.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.5 K%, 112 Home, 108 L7 days)
DEF: 11/5
B30: 3.46
BSR: 5
Martin Perez first three starts for SD: 18.1 IP – 71 BF – 4 R – 4 HR – 3 BB – 21 K
Martin Perez next three starts for SD: 13.1 IP – 62 BF – 8 R – 3 HR – 7 BB – 7 K
What happened?
First three starts: COL, MIA, PIT
Last three starts: MIN, NYM, TBR (all hit LHP well)
All estimators above four and a half and LHBs have a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Perez has a 73 Stuff+. In six starts for the Padres, he has a 76 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 94 (90 Road, 71 L7 days)
DEF: -9/-13
B30: 2.79
BSR: 3
DFS Notes: It reaches 80 degrees here, but with a neutralizing near double digit wind in from left. The Padres (4.7) have the fourth highest team total with the Tigers (3.8) fourth worst. The tricky part here is that the Detroit lineup is looking fuller these days, but almost all their young prospects are left-handed. Perez might have some value here, but I still think Bradford saves you from having to do it. Ibanez (150 wRC+, .189 ISO v LHP, 71 wRC+ L30 days, 99 wRC+ Road) is one of my favorite value plays on the board. He’s less than $3K, which makes it okay if you fear pinch-hit risk. He should get three shots at Perez and if not, it’s likely because they’ve done some damage. Vierling (114, .127, 149, 108) and Torkelson (142, .350, 151, 68) play here too. I like a Tiger RH stack here, except for the fact that the Padres have a dominant bullpen, best estimators In the majors L30 days. No Mize in this spot for me. Bogaerts and McCoy are the only two projected Padres below a 115 wRC+ v RHP this year with only Arraez additionally below a .160 ISO. That doesn’t mean I love Padres in this park. They’re not cheap (at least on DK) and play better as a stack. The Tigers have a pretty good pen too (fourth best estimators L30 days). Bullpens have seen significant work though with Miller throwing 31 pitches yesterday and Suarez, Scott and Adam all pitching yesterday, Monday and Sunday with only Scott (59) reaching 50 pitches, so they may not be able to neutralize LHBs as successfully late and they do have a .330 wOBA and .332 xwOBA against Perez. I'm just thinking out loud here, which is what this entire project is anyway, but Detroit stacks are becoming more interesting the deeper I go.
Update 5:40 EST: Phil Cuzzi listed as plate umpire. If true, bump for pitchers. Elias Diaz makes an appearance. Carpenter sits against a lefty. Malloy bats fourth. I believe I've talked myself into the Tigers (+136).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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