Started work on the Wednesday slate with five TBDs on MLB.com. Pitchers are listed for all games now and RR was only wrong on the two starters in Tampa Bay, but the search was a bit time consuming, as I like to find some sort of confirmation or opinion on Twitter too. The result is just three games below, though I considered trashing the whole thing and probably would have with one more TBD. There were also another one or two I was close on and will leave place holders below for in case something pops in the afternoon.
Where does that leave daily fantasy notes for Wednesday? I don't know. There probably will be some form of DFS content, but it will likely be shorter and experimentary. It's unlikely to be 10 full games of notes, when I have nothing written to base those notes off of.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Phillies @ Blue Jays
Bohm remains out.
White Sox @ Orioles
Update 4 EST: Is +295 too much for an Albert Suarez (4.60 SIERA, 4.07 xERA) start? Probably. BAL pen estimators are only 0.3 runs better L30 days. They're going to win eventually.
Astros @ Reds
Update 4:15 EST: Bregman returns, bats fourth. I'm supposed to go with the Reds above +120, but can't go against my boy SpAghetti.
Nationals @ Marlins
A bit of a rebound for MacKenzie Gore with a 17.1 K-BB% against the Phillies, Braves and Yankees. His 96.6 mph average fastball last time out was his highest single game velocity since May. He struggled for so long that his 4.45 ERA is within half a run of all non-FIP estimators, but has only allowed 6.6% Barrels/BBE. Yet, a 4.47 xERA matches his 4.45 ERA. We’ve seen two different Gores this season though and recently performance is hopefully a sign that the first guy is back. Pitch modeling has liked the stuff (112 Stuff+) all along, while a fastball that’s back on track (55.1%, -0.2 RV/100, 64 PB grade) should dominate the Marlins (-0.4 wFA/C is fifth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 77 (87 Home, 116 L7 days)
DEF: -5
B30: 3.92
With a 9.4 K-BB% (and 25% of his strikeouts came in one start) and 12.2% Barrels/BBE with a 48.1 HardHit%, a 5.29 SIERA is Valente Bellozo’s only estimator within a run of his 4.32 ERA with RHBs owning a wOBA and xwOBA reaching .400 against him. A 5.53 Bot ERA concurs and the only thing below a 69 Stuff+ mark is Flexen territory.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.3 K%, 91 Road)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.89
The first thing to note is that both defenses have put a much better unit on the field post-deadline. Bullpens are also a wash here, as is base running, which lets us boil it down to pure offense and pitching. The Nationals have a 20 point edge v L/RHP and even a four point home/road edge with a poor road offense. Lastly, even using Gore’s numbers on a whole, I’m seeing weighted estimators giving him more than a run and a half advantage. The Nats should be much more than a -135 F5 favorite.
Update 3:35 EST: 3.18% gain on WAS F5. LHB Griffin Conine starting against the LHP.
Twins @ Rays
Update 3:45 EST: Looks like a double opener situation, so RR may be right with Alexander & Varland following. Alexander has some crazy PitchingBot grades (almost all above 60). Anyway, the line seems right. Some funkiness with the MIN LU with a RH opener, likely followed by a LHP.
Red Sox @ Mets
Update 4:30 EST: Struggling Sox shuffle the lineup. Mets going with the all defense outfield (Nimmo/Bader/Taylor).
Rockies @ Braves
Bradley Blalock allowed just three runs over 11 innings to the Padres and Yankees, despite walking and striking out seven of 50. Despite improving on that 0.0 K-BB% against the Marlins, he was bombed for six runs. Through four starts, the positive are just 7.8% Barrels/BBE and a double digit SwStr% in three of four starts. You really have to look hard, though there is one interesting pitch modeling tidbit. Blalock has one pitch exceeding a 40 PitchingBot grade. It’s his slider (18.2%, 62 PB grade). The Braves (-0.43 wSL/C) are just outside the bottom third of the league against such pitches.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.6 K%, 79 L7 days)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.59
Charlie Morton has struck out 28 of his last 97 Angels, Giants, Nationals and Phillies, allowing eight runs over 22.2 innings after getting blown up for eight runs by the Brewers. His 15.1 K-BB% still plays in this league, even if it doesn’t dominate anymore. Problematically, he’s allowing more barrels (9.9%), resulting in a 4.60 xERA that, along with his matching 4.63 FIP, are his only estimators more than a quarter of a run outside his 4.26 ERA. It’s RHBs that have given Morton more problems (.348 wOBA, .331 xwOBA). Morton’s pitch modeling is marginal with a 4.36 Bot ERA and a 95 Stuff+ turning into a 97 Pitching+. It’s useful, but back end of the rotation stuff.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.8 K%, 78 Road, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 3.49
I want to quickly mention that by projected lineups (using Roster Resource on Fangraphs), the Rockies beat the Braves by 17 Base Running Runs. That’s a LOT! I’m also giving the Rockies a large defensive edge. Those may not be the most decisive aspects of a game, but those are two large gaps for a huge dog (+235), facing a back end of the rotation pitcher and, let’s face it, frankly a below average offense. There’s only eight points or wRC+ separating these teams vs RHP. I didn’t expect them to beat Sale on Tuesday, but it was a ridiculous price. This one, I actually think they have a legitimate shot at. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 4:40 EST: Slight wind speed increase here, no direction change. A whole 0.45% gain on COL.
Guardians @ Royals
Update 5 EST: Lively 13.6 K% (6.3 SwStr%) L6 starts. Three in KC LU > 20.7 K% v RHP. Under 3.5 Ks (+115).
CLE w/o Josh Naylor and Noel here. Must be injury situations or why keep them out in such a big divisional game. Would be massive blows long term.
Pirates @ Cubs
Cardinals @ Brewers
Update 5:35 EST: Roof open. Contreras sits.
Yankees @ Rangers
Update 5:50 EST: No roof info, but it's only been open four times this year. Big injury news. Wells out, gives NYY just four LHBs (Eovaldi 50 point split) & Seager to the IL.
Dodgers @ Angels
Update 7 EST: No Angels. No Smith.
Tigers @ Padres
Mariners @ Athletics
George Kirby has allowed 21 runs (16 earned) over his last 20 innings with a 10.2 K-BB%. He has a 19.8 K-BB% overall, but just 17% on the road. That’s still pretty good, but opposing batters increase 57 points to a .319 wOBA against him on the road, LHBs a .380 wOBA in those situations. Like most Seattle pitchers, the park takes some credit for their success with 17 of his 20 home runs being surrenderd on the road. Concerned? Starting to be. Not long term though. He’s elite control over good stuff, but occasionally gets into these ruts where he throws too many fat pitches (which is why I said control rather than command). Non-FIP estimators are all within one-tenth of a run of his 3.63 ERA, adjust that a bit higher on the road. PitchingBot grades start at 54 on the heater and run all the way up to 68 on the sinker.
Opp wRC+: 101 (25.1 K%, 152 L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.34
J.P. Sears snapped a string of four straight starts with seven innings, striking out nine Giants twice, with seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers two starts back and then got right back on the horse and did it again for the fifth time in six starts in Texas. His 12.2 K-BB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE produce a 4.29 xERA that matches his actual 4.21 ERA. All other estimators are higher, running as high as a 5.05 dERA. Sears does have some issues with RHBs (.331 wOBA, .339 xwOBA), but there is some encouragement in his PitchingBot grades with the changeup (18.7%, -0.3 RV/100) his only grade below 50.
Opp wRC+: 94 (26.7 K%, 108 L7 days)
DEF: -22
B30: 3.78
This Oakland team has been undervalued for a while now, especially offensively and at home. They have the advantage there and in the bullpen and while I still give Kirby more than half a run edge here, he is struggling and closing in on weighted estimators (weighing more frequent appearance more than earlier in the season) around four. I don’t feel the A’s (+122) should be much worse than even in this spot at home. Facing Kirby in Seattle might be a different matter.
Update 6:30 EST: No movement at all on OAK.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Update 6 EST: Walker on the bench, ARI goes with 8 LHBs against Birdsong's massive REVERSE split. Fitzgerald & Bailey out for SFG, which actually lowers strikeout rates.
Speaking of which, Birdsong has been facing a lot of poor, high strikeout offenses lately AND only going twice through the lineup. There are five in the ARI LU below an 18 K% v RHP and only two above 21.6%. Under 4.5 Ks (+108).
DAILY FANTASY NOTES
As mentioned, daily fantasy content was going to take an experimental route today. It’s not a permanent change. A 10 game slate includes a pair of protected environments, Texas always closed amd Milwaukee often open, with temperatures in the 70s except for two spots, Los Angeles gets above 80 with a light wind blowing out, and, of course, San Francisco in the 60s. Not much wind effect anywhere, though it may reach double digits blowing in Atlanta.
The Dodgers (5.92) top the board with the Braves (5.52) also above five runs and then a three-quarter run drop to the Cubs and Padres (4.73) before the Rangers Royals and Yankees at exactly 4.5 runs. The Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Mets and Red Sox are exactly half a run less with Giants (3.7), A’s (3.47), Pirates (3.27) and Tigers (3.27) below four and the Rockies (2.98) just below three.
I have a stiff two man competition for the top spot today, without much space between any of them. Call it a tier if you wish. Just a note that I don’t see a rehab start for Darvish, so I don’t know what that’s going to look like tonight.
Shota Imanaga’s 25 K% is fourth best on the slate with 28% of his starts going at least seven innings with two runs or less. Estimators exceed his 3.14 ERA with a dERA actually reaching four (4.05), but that’s an outlier by almost a quarter of a run. Think around three and half, which should be more than enough in a slightly negative run environment that likely plays slightly pitcher friendly tonight. The Pirates have a 92 wRC+ against LHP (26.6 K%) and 84 wRC+ on the road, while the Cubs offer one of the better defenses in the league too. I currently have him in both of my single entry lineups.
Just a tad ahead of him and slightly more expensive, Sonny Gray is probably my top pitcher on the board, though factors like umpires, weather changes and lineups could change that. It’s that close. A 30 K% (24 K-BB%) against an offense with a 23.6 K% v RHP and projected lineup with the fourth through seventh batters (Roster Resource vs RHP) all exceeding a 25 K% v RHP is what the upside is here. The downside is his 9.8% Barrels/BBE against a powerful bunch and park that enhances power, especially with the roof open (13.1 HR/FB v RHP, 14.2 HR/FB Home, 19.3 HR/FB L7 days).
On FanDuel, I’ve found a way to stack Dodgers with Imanaga…by game stacking the entire thing with Angels too. Bobby Miller’s last two starts were the worst version of a quality start (6/3) against the Rays, in which he struck out nine of 24 batters, but then he followed it up with three runs over five innings against the O’s, striking out and walking three each. He’s allowed 11% Barrels/BBE on the year with a 46.3 HardHit%. It’s a volatile arm and if he’s fixed the Angels could be in trouble, but I believe it risk worth taking, considering batters from either side or the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The unfortunate trick was not including Ohtani (196 wRC+, .398 ISO v RHP, 139 wRC+ L30 days, 156 wRC+ Road).
This is a little tougher to do on DraftKings with Angels being more expensive. Ironically, I found the only way to stack this game and include Ohtani was to punt SP2 with Canning. Booting Ohtani and going with Lawrence Butler (135, .260, 179, 118) as my only non-LA bat tonight left me $8.2K on DK, ironically enough too, to afford Charlie Morton, who I essentially tied as my sixth rated pitcher overall, virtually tied with Kirby. That’s where I’m currently at right now with a pair of single entry lineups, though things can (and usually do) change.
A few more DFS thoughts…
Top Overall Pitchers
1 – Sonny Gray
1A – Shota Imanaga
2 – Nathan Eovaldi – Seven innings in eight of last 15 starts with a 19.9 K-BB% over that stretch (18.8% season). I know it’s scary, but Judge is homerless in eight or nine games, while you really don’t fear anyone else except Soto. The Yankees were shut out for six innings last night.
2A – Zac Gallen – Park ugrade, just one in projected SFG lineup below a 23 K% v RHP. He did settle down after a rough start against the Dodgers and has struck out 16 of his last 47 batters.
3 (or 5) – Seth Lugo – More about run prevention (CLE 91 wRC+ Road, 96 v RHP) and seventh inning outs in 50% of his starts.
Remaining Quick Pitching Thoughts
Don’t hate a cheap Bobby Miller in a couple of multi-entry lineups. He’s too cheap for the talent, but I’m banking on the blowup potential of course. Bradley Blalock is $5.7K and the Braves strike out enough for a punt and pray if desperate. The Red Sox have three projected batters exceeding a 30 K% against RHP this year and Tyler Megill is $7.2K on DK in a great pitching environment.
BP Estimators L30 days
Top: Padres, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Braves
Bottom: Rockies, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Royals
BP Notes: Ryan Helsley and Lucas Erceg threw 27 pitches on Tuesday. Ben Joyce (10 Tuesday, but 105.5 counts as like e pitches) has worked four of last six with no more than 16 pitches in any outing and not two straight. Chad Green (56) has worked two of last three days. Clay Holmes (44) has worked two straight, Jake Cousins (53) three of last five.
Top Overall Bats
1 – Ohtani (see above)
2 – Bobby Witt Jr. (180 wRC+, .285 ISO v RHP, 194 wRC+ L30 days, 206 wRC+ Home) (RHBs .318 wOBA, .309 xwOBA v Lively) – KC a sneaky top run environment
3 – Mookie Betts (153, .219, 143, 157)
4 – Freddie Freeman (160, .227, 133, 142)
5 – Juan Soto (187, .297, 140, 181) (LHBs .305 wOBA, .331 xwOBA v Eovaldi)
Top FD Values
1 – Gavin Lux ($2.7K%) (110, .160, 156, 104)
2 – Taylor Ward ($3K) (90, .183, 131, 94)
3 – Zach Neto ($3K) (92, .182, 118, 126)
4 – Basically the top 12 are from the LA game because it’s easily the best weather conditions in a run neutral, power friendly park
13 – Lawrence Butler ($3K) (115, .260, 179, 118) (LHBs on the Road .380 wOBA w/ 10 HRs v Kirby)
Top DK Values
1 – Mickey Moniak ($3K) (93, .177, 162, 70)
2 – Lux ($3.7K)
3 – Ward ($4.3K)
4 – Rendon ($3.6K) (71, .059, 92, 64 – And Washington’s hitting him cleanup?)
5 – Again, everyone from the cheaper Angels and then Dodgers, until Butler breaks through again.
One other cheap bat to watch – Kyle Manzardo (108, .203, 380 wRC+ since returning).
Additional Thoughts
LHBs have a .353 wOBA and .359 xwOBA against Marcus Stroman. One thing to watch is that Corey Seager wasn’t used in a key, late situation. Is he injured?
RHBs have a .379 wOBA and .364 xwOBA against Keider Montero. Fernando Tatis is expected to return tonight. However, this is a tough park with a tough bullpen behind Montero.
That's it for now. May or may not add some additional stuff (above or below) throughout the day.
Update 6:35 EST: Should have known they'd be the last two lineups out and potentially not before lock.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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