Think we're four games short below. Not bad, considering the lack of time available. I considered debuting a new format, but will hold that off for a bit. Will be back to finish up with DFS notes on a 10 game slate.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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White Sox @ Orioles
Nick Nastrini (45+ Future Value grade) might have a future, but not much of a present with four more walks than strikeouts through 30.2 innings and then 12.6% Barrels/BBE on top of it.
Opp wRC+: 114 (21 K%, 116 Home)
DEF: -26
B30: 4.10
Cade Povich (50 Future Value grade) might have a future, but not much of a present with a 4.5 K-BB% through 52 innings and then 10.1% Barrels/BBE on top of it.
Opp wRC+: 72 (6.8 HR/FB, 71 Road, 41 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.87
Despite the awfulness on display with every White Sox game, there still comes a point where they reach value and we’re not so far from it here against another struggling arm. Let’s see where this line goes. An F5 over is an option too.
Update 3:45 EST: Playing o4.5 F5 (-135). Both these pitchers have a combined one estimator below five (Povich 4.44 xERA w/ 10.1% Barrels/BBE) and you have a great offense against an awful defense too. I don't hate taking just BAL's team total F5 or full game here too.
Nationals @ Marlins
Patrick Corbin has allowed one run over his last 12 innings, striking out 14 of 44 batters. His cutter (60 PB grade) is up to 26.1% over this stretch (17.6% season). Yes, I believe there’s a direct correlation. It’s his only good pitch.
Opp wRC+: 77 (87 Home, 110 L7 days)
DEF: -5 (Putting a better defense on the field post-deadline)
B30: 3.92
Max Meyer is a fastball/slider guy, starting to trend like a reliever. Neither pitch grades above 50 (PitchingBot) and batters from either side are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.3 K%, 91 Road)
DEF: -1 (Both teams putting a better defense on the field post-deadline)
B30: 3.77
Update 4:40 EST: Abrams and Ruiz dropped to the bottom of the order against a RHP. Edwards back, Stowers plays against a LHP.
Twins @ Rays
I’ve read a bit about David Festa’s times through the order problems recently. He still has a 21.9 K-BB%. Impressive.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.5 K%, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.70
Jeffery Springs shook off the rust in his first two starts, before looking to be back to himself in his next two and then floundering again in Oakland. He followed that up by striking out nine of 17 Mariners. What doe sthat tell us? I don’t know. The fastball (42%, -1.1 RV/100, 41 PB grade) could be a problem against the Twins, a top third offenses against heat (0.22 wFA/C). Springs’ 87 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ are well below his previous work.
Opp wRC+: 110 (76 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.76
Phillies @ Blue Jays
Since his shutout of the Guardians, Tyler Phillips has allowed 17 runs over 11 innings with a 4.9 K-BB% and 15.2% Barrels/BBE. On his short season, all estimators exceed four with a 5.53 xERA matching his 5.50 ERA. Right-handed batters exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 104 (20.4 K%, 114 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.01
Chris Bassitt struck out nine of 27 Red Sox last time out, a predominantly LH lineup, which is a surprise, considering how they’ve hammered him this year (wOBA and xwOBA above .360). Including that one run outing over 6.2 innings, he still has an ERA above six with an xFIP and FIP above 4.30 over his last 10 starts. Even more confusing, the other seven inning, nine strikeout quality start in that span was against the Orioles, another strong and predominantly LH lineup. The Phillies aren’t predominantly LH, but the ones they do have are dangerous. Bassitt’s 94 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ should tell you something about his decline. He can still have his moments, but it’s no longer the expectation.
Opp wRC+: 100 (89 L7 days)
DEF: 23.5
B30: 4.26
DFS Notes: Thirty percent of a 10 game daily fantasy slate on Tuesday is protected, though weather shouldn’t have too much of an influence on the events anywhere. Two offenses reach the five run plateau with just two more above four and a half, eight below four runs and just one below three.
We begin in Toronto, where roof information has suddenly become very difficult to come by. A 98 PRF with the roof closed increases to 102 on average when it’s open (as it frequently is). Both offenses are tied at sixth from the top at 4.25 implied runs each. I have no interest in Phillips against a contact prone offense and minimal interest in Bassitt who costs less than $7.5K on DK and could pop a big one, but just isn’t consistently doing that. It’s basically one guy and then everybody else tonight and Bassitt is among the group of everybody else, while Phillips is below that. Vlad (161 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP, 189 wRC+ L30 days) solves one problem tonight, at least where he’s 3B eligible on FD, and that’s that 3B sucks. With the numbers mentioned above, Springer (100, .181, 80) looks good here too. Barger (87, .197, 93) has some value at that position as well. Kirk is the only projected Blue Jay below a .150 ISO v RHP this year. Vlad has a 183 wRC+ at home. The Phils have middling pen estimators L30 days. Of course, you want Harper (140, .250, 143) and Schwarber (105, .223, 101) in your player pool against Bassitt, though Kirk is one of the best throwers in the league and Bassitt not easy to run on. Toronto pen estimators are only seventh worst in the league L30 days, which is a boost for them if you’ve been following.
Update 4:20 EST: No roof info. Bohm still out. Look at that Philadelphia lineup with Castellanos batting fourth. Trying to figure out why Bassitt rated well today. The Phillies have just a 100 wRC+ against RHP.
Update 5:55 EST: Roof open.
Red Sox @ Mets
Kutter Crawford has allowed just a single home run over his last four starts. Now that we solved that problem, let’s talk about his 16.4 K% over his last 10 starts. What do you mean he didn’t really solve his home run problem either? Because just one of nine barrels left the park. Gotcha. Now there’s two problems. Despite the 10.5% Barrels/BBE on the year, a 3.87 xERA is Crawford’s only estimator below a 4.12 ERA, though all are within half a run and the pitch modeling still looks good (3.63 Bot ERA, 107 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 108 (112 Home, 109 L7 days)
DEF: -13
B30: 4.46
Seven innings in each of David Peterson’s last three starts with a total of six runs allowed (five earned) and what he’s doing is still completely unsustainable (82.2 LOB%). Over his last two starts, he’s generated just 45.5% of his contact on the ground (52.6% season) with six strikeouts and four walks. His strand rate is increasing and just eight of his 21 barrels have left the yard. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run and a half above his 2.83 ERA, while RHBs rise from a .312 wOBA against him to a .369 xwOBA. Peterson’s sinker (32%, 1.7 RV/100, 52 PB grade) has turned into a legitimate pitch, but it’s his only PitchingBot grade exceeding 50, resulting in a 4.76 Bot ERA to go along with 93 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28 K%, 115 Road, 51 L7 days)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.95
I can’t jump off this train now. I actually have pitching fairly close with Crawford’s troubles, but still give him the slight lead. Of course, I want nothing to do with to with the Boston bullpen, so F5 (+105). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: 70 degrees with a light wind in from right in a negative run environment puts the Mets (4.07) in the middle of the board with the Red Sox (3.43) second from the bottom as the books are really buying into Peterson. I find him at least adequately priced at $8K, though there are Ks in the Boston lineup. Crawford, just slightly cheaper, is a bit over-valued against the tougher lineup. While Peterson has held LHBs within a .280 to .285 wOBA and xwOBA, Tyler O’Neill (194 wRC+, .369 ISO v LHP) stands out here. Refsnyder (138, .207) and Romy Gonzalez (152, .211) have some value, the latter my 3B punt tonight. Duran (166) and Casas (114) are the only projected Boston bats exceeding a 100 wRC+ L30 days, though Jansen is the only bat projected below a 100 wRC+ on the road. Peterson is tough to run and if paired with Torrens instead of Alvarez, nearly impossible. The Mets have top half of the board pen estimators L30 days with their top guys getting a bit more rest the last couple of days. Batters from either side are now between a .290 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Crawford for the season. Lindor (131, .195) is the bat you want in this tough park. Alvarez and Marte are the only pair below a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year though. Bader the only other one projected below a .160 ISO. This is a decent stacking situation if you wish to do so with Boston pen estimators fifth worst L30 days. Jansen has one of the worst arms in the league.
Update 4 EST: A pair of unexpected inclusions (Yoshida, Iglesias) drop strikeout rates. Loss of 1.16% on BOS F5. Lotsa Peterson love out there.
Rockies @ Braves
Kyle Freeland is coming off back to back quality starts and, believe it or not, he has eight in his last 12 too. An 11.6 K-BB% with 10% Barrels/BBE and a 42.7 HardHit% are not at all impressive, but all estimators are more than half a run below his 5.51 ERA. (How does he have such a high ERA with so many quality starts?) Batters from the right side have smoked him (.364 wOBA, .349 xwOBA) and pitch modeling is of mixed opinion with an 82 Stuff+, but working up to a 98 Pitching+. PitchingBot only gives him one below average grade (changeup 10.3%), resulting in a 4.30 Bot ERA. Although Freelan’s K-BB is two points higher on the road than at home, 10 of his 14 home runs have been surrendered to right-handed batters on the road (.433 wOBA).
Opp wRC+: 111 (24.8 K%)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.55
After three straight double digit strikeout efforts, Chris Sale has struck out just 10 of his last 52 batters with a 10.1 SwStr% (Twins, Nationals). Including his start against the Angels, the velocity is actually up half a mph and he’s basically become just a fastball/slider guy around 90% of the time. A 26.8 K-BB% with 4.9% Barrels/BBE and 30.2 HardHit%, all non-FIP estimators are within one-quarter of a run of Sale’s 2.58 ERA, while batters from either side are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but Stuff+ (98) is not so impressed (102 Pitching+), though PitchingBot gives both the fastball and slider 60 grades.
Opp wRC+: 78 (26.9 K%, 78 Road, 109 L7 days)
DEF: -16
B30: 3.48
Oh, come on! +310?? Freeland isn’t the worst pitcher in the league and the Rockies actually have significant defensive and base running edges.
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a double digit wind in from left, near the pole area actually, we have the Braves (5.04) second from the top and the Rockies (2.44) the absolute bottom here. While I believe the price on this game is ridiculous and I believe it has dropped slightly, it’s Sale and everyone else tonight. He’s miles ahead of the rest of the pack, he will be highly owned and I still have him in both my single-entry lineups and don’t anticipate that changing. I’m fine with booting all Rockies from your player pool. Considering numbers mentioned above, Whit (66 wRC+, .115 ISO v LHP, 96 wRC+ L30 days) is in both my lineups, D’arnaud (142, .333, 53) would be a top catcher if in the lineup. Soler (143, .225, 133), Laureano (148, .256, 152) and Ozuna (156, .195, 153) are top outfielders and/or values. This is my primary stack tonight. The Rockies have the worst pen estimators over the last month.
Update 4:45 EST: Quite a bit going on here. Temp drop and wind increase just one or two degrees/mph. Nine RHBs for the Rockies. Of course the Braves drop Merrifield to eighth against a LHP and start Murphy with his 37.9 K% v LHP. A 15 cent gain for COL is just under 1%.
Guardians @ Royals
Tanner Bibee’s 21.7 K-BB% over his last three starts has increased his season mark to 20.6%. Nine runs over his last 10.2 innings has driven his ERA up to 3.65, within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. He allowed three home runs in his last start, but just a single barrel (6.9% on the season). More than two-thirds of his barrels on the season have left the park, but it doesn’t appear to have a great effect on his estimators for some reason. Bibee does have a sizeable split with LHBs at a .339 wOBA and .315 xwOBA, but RHBs below .285. All PitchingBot grades exceed 50 with the slider (26.1%) and changeup (18.5%) above 60. A 100 Stuff+ marks increases to a 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.5 K%, 54 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 16
B30: 4.07
Yes, Brady Singer is still stranding nearly 80% of his runners, but he’s also posted a 21.8 K-BB% over his last five starts (12.1 SwStr%), almost all against strong offenses. I wish I had something to give you, but a quick look gives us the same pitch usage at the same speed with the same movement. There’s probably more, but it would take a more in depth look and potentially its own Fangraphs article. His 3.36 ERA is below, but within half a run of most estimators between three and a half and four with the exception of a 4.38 xERA (8.1% Barrels/BBE, 39.9 HardHit%). Singer has a massive split with LHBs at a .375 wOBA and .369 xwOBA and RHBs below .275, which makes sense for a guy throwing sinkers (51 PB grade) and sliders (45 PB grade) 90% of the time. This seems to be a particularly dangerous matchup for him. An 84 Stuff+ only works up to a 95 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.3 K%, 91 Road, 125 L7 days)
DEF: 22
B30: 4.10
DFS Notes: The top natural run environment on the board (110 PRF) with temps in the mid-70s, but a light wind in from around the right field pole area. We have both teams at exactly four runs, which could be a bit light in this park. Two very difficult offenses to strikeout and the Royals performance at home puts Bibbee further back than Singer among that pack of “others” behind Sale. Then again, the LHBs hurt Singer a bit too. Kwan (120 wRC+, .137 ISO v RHP) and Ramirez (112, .215) are my top rated Guardians, the latter probably the top 3B bat (on DK at least), but very expensive. This is a difficult combination to run on, but the Royals are on the edge of the bottom third of the league by L30 day pen estimators, one spot behind the Guardians. Bobby Witt (178, .287) plays everywhere, but that’s about it from the Kansas City end or at least the only standout. He has a 187 wRC+ L30 days and 204 wRC+ at home. The Guardians, as mentioned, have bottom half of the league, just outside the bottom third, pen estimators L30 days and Smith has thrown 49 pitches over the last four days, though an available Clase is always something to be weary of.
Update 5 EST: Cleveland going to the extreme with nine LHBs.
Pirates @ Cubs
Since the announcement that Paul Skenes was going to have his innings scaled back, he’s struck out 15 of 40 batters with his velocity bouncing back up above 98.5 mph. Maybe it’s just relief that he doesn’t need to conserve himself anymore. The last of those starts was against the Cubs, who put three on the board through five innings. Skenes has thrown 87 and then 83 pitches in these starts. When he’s in there, I expect good things (26.1 K-BB%, 5.2% Barrels/BBE). All estimators exceed his 2.23 ERA, but none reach three. Skenes has 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades.
Opp wRC+: 101 (156 L7 days)
DEF: -17
B30: 4.40
With just seven runs (six earned) over his last 26.2 innings, Justin Steele has posted a 24.1 K-BB% (18.1% season) with just a single barrel and a quarter of his batted balls hard hit. In fact, Steele has allowed just one barrel since the break (eight starts) and has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground over his last three starts. He has a better contact profile than Skenes (4.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.2 HardHit%), nearly matching xERAs with similar pitch modeling (100 Stuff+ 102 Pitching+). Steele is generally a fastball/slider guy and that shouldn’t really work this well in a starting role, but both pitches exceed 60 PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 93 (26.5 K%, 84 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.53
Steele can certainly match zeroes with Skenes for five innings and from there on the Cubs will have large advantages in every aspect of this game. Make sure to play the full game (-126) to get the biggest advantage in this game, the bullpens.
Update 12 EST: And now I have Kyle Hendricks at -126, which is actually close to what I make the new line, but with no added value. All non-FIP estimators more than a run and a half below his 6.75 ERA, but that doesn't make them good. Left-handed batters have a .400 wOBA and .374 xwOBA. Like Monday with Taillon's splits, he only has to really worry about Reynolds and Cruz, but the Pirates BABIP'd Hendricks (.700) for six runs in his last outing.
DFS Notes: Around 70 with a light wind in from right makes this a slightly pitcher friendly environment with Skenes among the “others” group, but probably now overpriced against a red-hot offense with a short leash. Hendricks is so cheap against a below average offense. The results are such a turn off, but the underlying numbers aren’t as bad. There’s just no upside here. Considering the environment and the Cubs’ sixth best pen estimators L30 days. I’m fine with dumping Pirates bats from your pool with a mere 3.89 team run total. The Cubs (3.61) are even closer to the bottom. The Pittsburgh bullpen has the second worst estimators L30 days, costing Bednar his job, but you’re punting your first two PAs against Skenes essentially. I’ve discarded all bats from this game and really want very little to do with it in a daily fantasy sense overall.
Update 5:30 EST: Large loss, 6.73%, on Cubs. Doug Eddings listed as plate ump. If correct, that's a bump for pitchers.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Steven Matz makes his first major league start since April and those weren’t very good. His only estimator below five over 27.2 innings is a 4.77 FIP, though a 3.76 Bot ERA that only sees the slider (8.2%, 31 PB grade) as below average gives us some optimism, while an 85 Stuff+ improves to a 98 Pitching+. He threw 21 AAA innings over six August starts with a 14.4 K-BB%, but more impressive 18.6% over his last four starts. A 57.7 LOB% elevates the AAA ERA. Matz surrendered a .392 wOBA and .379 xwOBA to RHBs in April with LHBs at a .376 xwOBA also.
Opp wRC+: 103 (11.1 K-BB%, 130 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.18
Aaron Civale is off his best start as a Brewer, striking out seven of 25 Giants over seven innings with just two hits allowed, but who hasn’t been shutting down that offense recently? Maybe a few LHPs. In nine starts for Milwaukee, his 11.6 K-BB% is below his season 13.8% mark with the same amount of league average hard contact, but an increased rate of barrels too (8.3%). On the season, non-FIP estimators are below, but within half a run of his 4.59 ERA with 80% of his barrels turning into home runs. Batters from either side are between a .300 and .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him with unremarkable pitch modeling, though his individual PitchingBot grades are all over the place with seven different pitches listed by Statcast.
Opp wRC+: 103 (136 L7 days)
DEF: 22
B30: 3.38
DFS Notes: A 94 PRF with the roof closed increases to 98 with it open with the biggest boost to RH power (ask Adames), the Brewers (4.61) are fourth from the top with the Cardinals (3.89) a bottom half of the board offense. Civale is cheap enough on DK ($6.3K) to have some interest in. Another way to say it is, very little interest in St Louis bats, though all projected except Walker and Scott exceed a 100 wRC+ L30 days (though that range ends at 128) and add Goldy to that group for your Cardinals below a 100 wRC+ v RHP with only Burleson (137) above 120. Burleson (.201 ISO) and Noobaar (.185) are the only Cardinals flashing any power against RHP too. The Brewers have the third best pen estimators L30 days as well. We do like Milwaukee bats here, especially Chourio (101 wRC+, .090 ISO v LHP, 168 wRC+ L30 days) and Perkins (116, .097, 97), the latter less than $3K on either site. Adames, Contreras, Sanchez and Monasterio all exceed a 150 wRC+ L30 days. Matz is easy to run on and St Louis has bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:10 EST: Roof open, 72 degrees. Siani back for the Cards. Brewers actually have a guy named Brewer in the lineup. Just one LHB.
Yankees @ Rangers
Carlos Rodon’s starts have been roller coasters lately and against poor offenses. One start is a shutout, the next a blowout, then he’ll walk the park, sometimes its barrels. When you grind it all down, the 18.3 K-BB% is perfectly fine, top end of the rotation stuff. The 9.9% Barrels/BBE are a problem. All estimators are within half a run of his 4.31 ERA with the 3.86 SIERA the only one dipping below four. Batters from the right-hand side have given him a legitimate problem (.334 wOBA, .324 xwOBA), but pitch modeling still loves him (55 PB grade slider, 61 grade curveball, 123 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 10
B30: 3.91
Since a tough run through the Astros, Yankees and Twins, Andrew Heaney has gotten back on track with one run over 10 innings against the Pirates and White Sox. The K-BB is actually down a bit this year (16.6%), but the Rangers will take it with the average contact profile (8.0% Barrels/BBE, 39.3 HardHit%. Like Rodon, his 3.95 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators with a 4.52 dERA the only exception. Heaney has actually handled RHBs fairly well (.298 wOBA, .314 xwOBA), but struggled with LHBs (.331 wOBA, .337 xwOBA), while the Yankees generally play more LHBs against LHPs than most teams.
Opp wRC+: 106 (9.3 K-BB%, 118 Road, 108 L7 days)
DEF: 15
B30: 4.30
I started with a lean towards the under here (9 -108 DK). Two very strong defenses (and poor base running teams) with the Rangers below a 100 wRC+ at home and against LHP, but talked (or wrote) myself out of it.
DFS Notes: A perfectly neutral 100 PRF with the roof closed, as it almost always is, the Yankees (4.81) are third from the top with the Rangers (4.19) middle of the board. Heaney is so cheap ($6K) and can find outs outside the big two. I don’t hate it. Rodon is among that group of “others”, but around the $9K mark against an offense that doesn’t strike out much, may have more risk (9.9% Barrels/BBE) than reward. The usual Judge (241 wRC+, .441 ISO v LHP, 229 wRC+ L30 days) and Soto (170, .283, 159) are top bats if you can afford them. With LHBs better than RHBs against Heaney, I wonder if Wells remains in the cleanup spot tonight. The Rangers have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days. One affordable Ranger I’m interested in here is Langford (145, .253, 106). Semien (131, .178, 59) somewhat pops here too. Rodon is terrible at holding runners. The Yankees have middling pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:40 EST: Roof closed. This line has moved far too much in the Yankees' direction. Maybe an over-reaction to Seager sitting? Beginning to become a pattern vs LHP. He hasn't hit them at all. Yankees going in the opposite direction on Heaney w/ only three LHBs.
Dodgers @ Angels
Walker Buehler struck out four Orioles (six start high) with a single walk and nearly lasted five innings last time out. With just five hard hit batted balls (29.4%), Dodger fans are hoping it’s a sign of him turning things around because the numbers are ugly. Only his FIP (5.88) matches his ERA (5.85) with 11 home runs and 12 barrels, but his best estimator is still just a 4.76 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, though pitch modeling is a little more encouraging. The changeup (6.5%) is his only PitchingBot grade below 50 with a 96 Stuff+ reverting to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 87 (92 Home, 83 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -5
B30: 4.00
Maybe Reid Detmers didn’t really deserve his demotion with results (6.14 ERA) much worse than estimators averaging around four with a 4.15 xFIP his worst non-FIP estimator. Ten home runs on 16 barrels (9.0%), but just a 36.5 HardHit% and 15.5 K-BB%, he stranded just 61.7% of his runners with a .333 BABIP. Statcast (xwOBA) decreases batters from either side by nearly 40 points from their actual wOBA against Detmers. The slider (23.5%) was his worst graded pitch (47 PB), but he had two PitchingBot grades reaching 60 (change 15.6%, curve 14.9%), forming a 3.97 Bot ERA with near average 97 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 126 (19.2 K%, 111 Road, 136 L7 days)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 4.45
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to left puts the Dodgers on top of the board (5.44) with the Angels (4.06) middle of the board, illustrating how far Buehler has fallen. While he rates as one of the worst values on the board, I don’t hate taking a single shot or two in multi-entry to see if Buehler can shine in a strong spot. While Detmers is not anywhere close to as bad as his surface results, you have to strongly consider attacking him with Dodger bats who destroy LHP. Teoscar (167 wRC+, .301 ISO v LHP, 138 wRC+ L30 days) and Smith (135, .245, 92) aren’t that expensive. Freeman (110, .177, 128) and Ohtani (118, .192, 130) work here with LHBs hitting Detmers better than RHBs. Mookie (149, .159, 134) if you can afford him. Edman (196, .200, 77) could be a nice value bat here. Only Kike and Taylor sit below a 110 wRC+ on the road. Detmers is very easy to run on and the Angels have the third worst pen estimators L30 days. Ward (88, .177, 128) and Neto (91, .184, 121) pop a bit from the Angels end. The Dodgers have middling pen estimators L30 days.
Mainers @ Athletics
Luis Castillo has struck out nine in three of his last five starts, but with nine runs in those 18 innings and a total of 10 strikeouts with six runs in 11 innings in the other two. A great park is hiding some decline this year. It may not be permanent, but his 18 K-BB% is good rather than great and even that goes from 22.8% at home to 11.5% on the road, where opposing batter wOBA goes from .285 to .332 too. Left-handed batters have a .353 wOBA against Castillo on the road. Overall, all of his estimators exceed his 3.65 ERA without reaching four with 102 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks that are also good, not great, along with PitchingBot grades ranging from 50 to 57 (3.98 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 101 (24.9 K%, 159 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.28
Now 25 year-old J.T. Ginn was a marginal Mets pitching prospect a few years back before being traded for Chris Bassitt. The same appears to be true now with his current Fangraphs 40 Future Value grade and just a 12.0 K-BB% in 72.1 AAA innings. The 53.9 GB% seems to be key there. Fighting through injuries for most of the last five years or so, a recent scouting report suggested a future fifth starter. Projections average a bit above four and a half, close to four and three-quarters. He’s struck out eight of 36 batters (14.2 SwStr%) with a 60.9 GB%, just a 30.4 HardHit% (two barrels) and four walks.
Opp wRC+: 98 (27.8 K%, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -22.5
B30: 3.79
Oakland has marginal offensive, bullpen and base running advantages at home. Enough to overcome larger starting pitching and defensive deficits? At +130, I sure think so, considering how Castillo has been exposed on the road, even if I don’t believe he’s actually below average outside that park.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with almost no wind in a pitcher friendly environment, yet the Mariners (4.42) are fifth from the top with the A’s (3.58) third from the bottom. I don’t hate taking a shot with most low priced pitchers against the Mariners. Castillo is among that group of “others”, but at least $9K on either site. Raley (129 wRC+, .219 ISO v RHP, 176 wRC+ L30 days) and Raleigh (115, .192, 89) are the best left-handed Seattle bats, but Langeliers has a cannon and the A’s have borderline top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. Seattle bats don’t really pop here. Oakland standouts are the usual with Castillo having issues with LHBs. That’s Butler (134, .253, 165), the matchup proof Rooker (164, .263, 166) and the on the verge Bleday (127, .202, 167). This trio is on fire, all with at least a 115 wRC+ at home. Castillo is not easy to run on, but the Mariners have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
While Ryne Nelson produced just four strikeouts against the Mets (his fewest in six starts), he posted his fourth straight quality start with two runs or less, three of them with seventh inning outs. I’m going to just keep changing the numbers here.
It’s been eight starts since Ryne Nelson increased his fastball usage to 61% (0.5 RV/100, 60 PB grade on the season) The result has been five quality starts with a 22.2 K-BB% (14.3% season) and just eight barrels (six in his last two, but still just 6.2% through this stretch). The stench of his first 15 starts is still weighing on his 4.22 ERA that’s above, but within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators, while batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him. This is a different pitcher now though, with estimators barely above three over the last month.
Opp wRC+: 92 (54 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.33
Kyle Harrison has just two quality starts over his last nine (4.67 ERA), both at home against awful offenses (Rockies, White Sox). While his K-BB increases from 10.6% on the road to 18.3% at home, opposing batters lose 50 points of wOBA on Harrison when he’s at home (.298). That’s simply because just five of his 18 barrels have left the yard at home, as opposed to 12 of 18 on the road. On the season, estimators range from a 4.20 SIERA to 4.79 xERA with his 4.22 ERA at the very bottom of that range with an overall 14.4 K-BB% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE. The 4.24 Bot ERA and 95 Stuff+ (100 Pitching+) fit the estimator pattern with only the fastball (12.1%, 31 PB grade) not within a 54 to 56 PitchingBot range.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.2 K%, 109 Road, 137 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.62
DFS Notes: Upper 60s with surprisingly little wind here, the Diamondbacks (3.89) and Giants (3.61) are both near the bottom of the board. I don’t trust Harrison, even at home. The Arizona offense may be less without certain guys against LHP at this point, but it’s still a tough, contact prone lineup. Nelson is also in that group of “others” and a great value for just $7.2K in a strong spot against a struggling offense. He’s my DK SP2. I’m fine with booting Giants’ bats from your pool. Fitzgerald (135) is the only one reaching a 120 wRC+ v RHP and has cooled down considerably, as we knew he would. Nelson is one of the toughest pitchers to run on and the Arizona pen has the second best pen estimators L30 days. Arizona bats don’t really stand out either in a tough park. Grichuk (128 wRC+, .157 ISO v LHP, 159 wRC+ L30 days) is cheap enough to have some value. Among those projected, only Newman and Herrera are below a 120 wRC+ L30 days. The Giants have the seventh best pen estimators L30 days.
Update 6:20 EST: Walker back, but Gurriel out. Del Castillo plays against a LHP, but McCarthy sits. Luciano in for Wisely.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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