This is a nice looking week with some early holiday games on Monday and some teams having off on Tuesday too. After that, we'll probably start winding down some, not in number of posts, but lengthwise. All season, I've been looking for a way to fit every game in a timely manner and have been unsuccessful in creating that routine. Seeing traffic slowly start to drop off as we get into football season, I may start omitting more games, especially those not of interest that are off the main daily fantasy slate that day.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Cardinals @ Brewers
Andrew Pallante has just a 9.4 K-BB%, but 61.9 GB% with just 2.8% Barrels/BBE and a 34.4 HardHit% as a starter. Over his last seven starts, it’s just a 6.4 K-BB%, but 70.6 GB% with 2.3% Barrels/BBE and a 37.2 HardHit%. He’s allowed two runs or less to the Padres, Twins, Dodgers and Royals over his last four starts.
Opp wRC+: 108 (133 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 4.17
Freddy Peralta’s eight strikeouts against the Giants last time out was his first start with that many in seven starts. He now has 11 shutout innings over his last two starts, but he’s still walked at least two in eight straight starts with just an 11.9 K-BB% over that period (18.8% season). The command has been sketchy for most of the season, resulting in a 3.70 ERA that’s within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators, which is still pretty good, but not Ace material.
Opp wRC+: 102 (91 Road)
DEF: 23.5
B30: 3.41
Update 1 EST: Hotline lists 72 degrees with the roof open (98 PRF on average). Marquez is also listed as the home plate ump. Extremely hitter friendly. Played u5.5 Ks +130 on Peralta. Could go anyway, but we're getting a nice price. Struck out just 2 Cards two starts back. Peralta averaging less than 23 BF per start with poor command & five of first six in STL LU no higher than an 18 K% v RHP. Line has also risen to a point were STL F5 (+150) has some value.
White Sox @ Orioles
Chris Flexen has faced 54 batters over his last two outings. The White Sox have no shits left to give. Best estimator is a 4.75 xERA.
Opp wRC+: 114 (21 K%, 116 Home, 81 L7 days)
DEF: -26
B30: 4.34
The cutter looked different last time out for Corbin Burnes. The 2.1 inches of H-Movement was a season high off of 0.8 inches on the season. The 5.4 inches of V-Movement was a season low off of 7.9 inches on the season. The result was a 16.0 SwStr%, which was not his best mark of the season, but well above his 12.8% season mark and it was against the Dodgers, where he allowed just one earned runs. Now for the bad news. Burnes struck out just four Dodgers and allowed five unearned runs. It was his third straight start with at least six runs allowed.
Opp wRC+: 73 (24 K%, 8.9 HR/FB, 71 Road, 59 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.00
Update 1:15 EST: 80 degrees, but 12 mph wind in from left. No Robert or Vaughn for CWS. Replaced by LHBs, giving them a rare five against Burnes's reverse split.
Astros @ Reds
Justin Verlander hasn’t exceeded four innings in five straight starts and has allowed exactly four runs in three of them. He’s now up to 12 starts with a respectable, but nowhere near standard for him 14.6 K-BB%. The 33.3 HardHit% has helped produce a 3.79 xERA without any other estimator below four and a half. He’s been known for beating his estimators throughout his career, so maybe the xERA is it, but this certainly isn’t peak Verlander anymore and the signs were even there when he won his Cy Young after returning from Tommy John surgery. On the one hand, a 119 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ suggest he still has the goods, but PitchingBot grades range from 43 to 51 with a 4.73 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.9 K%, 88 Home)
DEF: -1
B30: 3.81
Julian Aguiar has struck out seven of the 63 batters he’s faced with four walks and five home runs on 10 barrels (19.6%). The barrels account for over half of his hard contact. With a K-BB below 15% at both AA and AAA this year, there doesn’t appear to be anything worth noting here yet.
Opp wRC+: 111 (19.4 K%0
DEF: -14.5
B30: 4.16
Update 3:10 EST: Bregman remains out. Near 80 w/ 10 mph wind blowing out towards RF pole.
Guardians @ Royals
Gavin Williams has only completed six innings twice in 11 starts, recording only one other sixth inning out. Batters from the right-hand side have a .371 wOBA and .370 xwOBA against him. He’s got a fastball (53.1%, -0.4 RV/100, 63 PB grade), but not much more. The Royals are a bottom half of the league offense against heaters (-0.2 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 102 (18.5 K%, 107 Home)
DEF: 16
B30: 4.01
Despite striking out seven Guardians without a walk over six innings, Michael Wacha still snapped a streak of five straight quality starts of two runs or less. He’s been pitching really well and got BABIP’d by the Guardians (30 HardHit%). With a 14.3 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit%, I’m surprised all non-FIP estimators exceed four. His changeup (31.8%, 1.8 RV/100, 79 PB grade) is the top graded pitch in the game (20/80 scale).
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.3 K%, 90 Road, 92 L7 days)
DEF: 24
B30: 4.17
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Jack Flaherty’s K-BB has dropped all the way to 22.1% in five starts for the Dodgers, though his last start against the Orioles was the first time this year he’s had a single digit SwStr (7.1%). The biggest change since the trade has been an increase in curveballs (27.3% vs 20.8% on the season), not at the sole expense of any other individual pitch. We still don’t know what the Yankees saw in the meidcals, but this man’s 3.07 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. The lack of stellar pitch modeling is so surprising, considering the season Flaherty is having. PitchingBot grades range from 53 to 56 with a 4.03 Bot ERA to go along with just a 96 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 112 (19.8 K%, 116 Home, 124 L7 days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.96
Eduardo Rodriguez has struck out five and walked one in three straight starts and even though the Mets touched him up for five runs, he was perfect through the first four innings and only allowed six of 22 batters to reach base. The velocity has ticked up slightly with each start, going from 91.2 mph first time out to averaging 92.1 mph last time. That’s enough for PitchingBot to slap a 55 grade on it. The Dodgers do appear to have a single pitch weakness and it’s the fastball (-0.15 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 115 (19.4 K%, 110 Road, 130 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.31
I’m giving Flaherty a full run here, but the Arizona offense against RHP is very comparable to the Dodgers, especially with Carroll and McCarthy catching fire over the last month and Del Castillo providing power out of nowhere. Considering Arizona is at home with large defensive, bullpen and base running advantages, I make this game fairly close to even and am happy to play the home team at +122. Follow Rocky Jade at Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 3:30 EST: Roof closed, Pavin Smith in for Gurriel. Eight LHBs against Flaherty's slight reverse split, but still a 1.68% gain on ARI.
Tigers @ Padres
Ty Madden is a 45 Future Value arm (Fangraphs) with a winter scouting report suggesting a “high probability” back end starter before producing a 16.8 K-BB% at AAA over 79 innings with a walk rate barely into double digits (10.8%), but also a professional high. He struck out just a pair of White Sox in his first start, walking three and has projections just slightly above four and a half on average.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.6 K%, 112 Home, 116 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.60
Joe Musgrove followed up on seven innings of one-hit ball against the Mets with nine strikeouts, but striking out just three Cardinals in St Louis with the worst version of a quality start. He appears to have altered the grip on his slider, inspired by Dylan Cease. The result is -0.8 V-Movement, as opposed to -1.9 on the season. He was also averaging a season high 94.1 mph on his fastball in St Louis. There’s a disconnect between his 5.18 xERA and all other estimators below, but within half a run of his 4.44 ERA and that disconnect is the 10.8% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed, but with just 10 of 22 leaving the park. Stuff+ (117) still believes in Musgrove.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.1 K%, 91 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: -14
B30: 2.69
DFS Notes: A pair of protected environments on a six game slate where weather could be a factor (wind, temp) in just about every other spot. One offense exceeds four and a half implied runs, nearly half a run separated from the rest of the board with five teams below four runs and another five between 4 and 4.1 runs. While we have a clear top pitcher, there are several additional usable arms.
We start early in San Diego where the ball should travel better in the upper 70s with a light wind across the field. The Padres (4.39) are behind only the top offense tonight with the Tigers (3.11) pulling up the bottom of the board. I would rather play the pitcher facing the top offense than Ty Madden in this spot. The focus should be on San Diego bats here with Merrill (146 wRC+, .229 ISO v RHP, 174 wRC+ L30 days), Cronenworth (128, .198, 121) and Profar (132, .166, 104) grading best. Bogaerts (95) is the only projected San Diego bat below a 110 wRC+ v RHP. He (92) and McCoy (93) are the only two below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Profar the only other one below 115. Bogaerts (88) and Arraez (79) the only two below a 99 wRC+ at home. The Tigers have the sixth best pen estimators in baseball L30 days. On the other side, the Padres have the top pen estimators in baseball behind Musgrove, who is certainly worth a shot on this slate and currently my single entry DK SP1. I don’t have a clear number two, but he’s in that group of guys. Carpenter (175, .324, 176), Greene (148, .227, 103) and Meadows (103, .193, 150) are dangerous and should remain in your player pools, though it’s RHBs who are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Musgrove this year. All three exceed a 110 wRC+ on the road too. Musgrove/Higashioka are tough to run on.
Update 4:15 EST: Line movement towards SD. Solano in for Cronenworth.
Twins @ Rays
Simeon Woods Richardson is the type of pitcher any contender would like to have at the end of their rotation, but would be unlikely to give a playoff start to. With a 10.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts, he’s down to 13.1% again with 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but just a 36.3 HardHit%. That’s an estimator range from a 4.04 FIP (4.06 xERA) to a 4.42 xFIP, a bit above his 3.85 ERA. SWR has good enough command to turn an 88 Stuff+ into a 100 Pitching+. The changeup (19.9%, 65 PB grade) is the start of his arsenal, but also the only pitch the Ray shave performed well against.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.6 K%, 85 L7 days)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.55
Zach Littell has just two quality starts in his last 11 tries because that’s how often he’s completed six innings over that span. The Rays will take his estimators ranging from a 4.06 SIERA to a 4.48 dERA, a bit above his 3.89 ERA (sound familiar?) and happily hand it over to a quality pen after five innings. Also like SWR, Littell allows too many barrels (9.7%), despite a hard hit rate below 40% (39.8%), but walks even fewer (4.7%). Little turns an 83 Stuff+ into a 98 Pitching+ with the splitter (22.7%, 67 PB grade) his only PitchingBot grade reaching 50.
Opp wRC+: 111 (76 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: A rare Tampa Bay appearance on the main slate, the dome has a fixed 92 PRF with both teams middle of the board at exactly four runs. I like SWR in a nice spot here with a lot of potential strikeouts, especially for just $6.5K on DK. However, Junior Camenario has had an immediate impact (128 wRC+, .241 ISO v RHP, 125 wRC+ L30 days) and remains cheap. B.Lowe (122, .226, 100) is the other bat to look at here. They are also the top two by wRC+ at home, both above 130. SWR is one of the easiest pitchers to run on, though Minnesota pen estimators are top third of the league over the last month (Jax 27 pitches on Sunday). Littell is fine, but low workload. It’s a great environment and the Twins are less potent on the road, struggling even at home over the last week. With batters from either side between a .313 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against him though, Castro (117, .142, 87), Larnach (124, .203, 131) and Wallner (176, .318, 166) are all at least viable here. Littell is one of the tougher pitchers to run on and the Rays pen is inside the top third of the league by last 30 day pen estimators.
Update 4:25 EST: Played a sneaky K prop at another nice price (Littell o4.5 +138). He's exceeded an 11.5 SwStr% in three of his last four, including Houston twice, while four MIN batters exceed a 24 K% v RHP, including three of the first five.
Mariners @ Athletics
A season high 10 strikeouts without a walk for Logan Gilbert against the Rays last time out. Six shutout innings was a welcome site after the Pirates and Dodgers put up 12 runs over his previous 11 innings. The K-BB drops from 25.2% at home to a still healthy 17.8% on the road, though Gilbert pitched seven one run innings in Oakland back in June, striking out just five A’s. With just 6.6% Barrels/BBE overall, all estimators exceed, but are within one-third of a run of his 3.09 ERA with batters from either side of the plate not exceeding a .280 wOBA or xwOBA against him. All five of Gilbert’s pitches receive PitchingBot grades between 54 and 60, while a 120 Stuff+ (105 Pitching+) is even more impressive.
Opp wRC+: 100 (25 K%, 139 L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.38
In seven starts since being moved into the rotation, Osvaldo Bido has responded with an 18.1 K-BB%, just four barrels (4.6%) and a 26.9 HardHit%. Including the 18.1 innings he pitched prior to this, Bido has a 2.61 xERA, but contact neutral estimators running as high as a 4.71 xFIP and 4.74 dERA with a 14.1 K-BB% and 30% ground ball rate. The xFIP drops to 4.18 over this seven start stretch. Batters from either side of the plate run no higher than a .281 wOBA or xwOBA against Bido this year.
Opp wRC+: 99 (27.9 K%, 121 L7 days)
DEF: -22.5
B30: 3.80
Still giving Gilbert a near three-quarter run edge, Oakland has the better offense here (105 wRC+ Home) and better pen, though I’m dropping to half a unit with Miller throwing somewhere in the vicinity of 30 pitches in an extra-inning game in Texas on Sunday.
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a near double digit wind out to right-center, the Mariners (4.03) are middle of the board with the A’s (3.47) tied for the second lowest team total. Bido isn’t cheap (more than $8.5K) and has only exceeded 21 batters faced once since joining the rotation, but has been so efficient that that’s regularly getting him through six innings with five or six strikeouts. He’s certainly usable in a high upside spot against the Mariners, but remember the potential limitations, which is why I chose Musgrove over him. That said, no Seattle bats stand out here despite seven projected between a 100 and 131 wRC+ v RHP this year (the park and strikeouts really make them look much less productive than they really are). Langeliers is a top throwing catcher and the A’s have top half of the board pen estimators L30 days, though, as mentioned above, Miller threw 34 pitches in a walk off loss in extras on Sunday. On the other side, Gilbert is the clear top arm on the slate, but probably a better value on FD, where he’s currently my guy in a single entry. Our bats of interest here remain Butler (134 wRC+, .253 ISO v RHP, 163 wRC+ L30 days) against virtually any RHP and Rooker (164, .263, 162) who is almost completely matchup proof. Bleday (126, .201, 160) has entered the chat as well. All three have at least a 115 wRC+ at home. Gilbert can be run on and the Mariners have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:40 EST: Bido exactly six in five of seven starts - Six of first seven in SEA LU > 26 K% v RHP. Over 5.5 Ks +130. Miniscule 0.4% gain on OAK.
Red Sox @ Mets
Brayan Bello is coming off his best start of the season with eight one-hit innings against the Blue Jays with nine strikeouts and just three hard hit batted balls. He posted quality starts of one run or less in three of his last four starts, the exception being a beating at the hands of the Diamondbacks, prior to the Blue Jays. With a marginal 13.3 K-BB% and 40.9 HardHit%, you could say that more was expected of Bello, but at least he’s kept the ball on the ground 51.9% of the time and shown some flashes recently. Regardless, all estimators (3.76 xFIP – 4.35 FIP) are better than his 4.66 ERA with 19 of his 30 barrels leaving the yard. With all three pitches grading between 51 and 58, Bello has a 3.72 Bot ERA to go along with 101 Stuff+ and 103 Pithcing+ marks. One weakness is that LHBs have a .354 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against him. He fixes this issue and he probably becomes the pitcher the Red Sox and their fans want him to be.
Opp wRC+: 108 (112 Home, 111 L7 days)
DEF: -5
B30: 4.41
Luis Severino also struck out nine, but allowed four runs to the Diamondbacks (the same offense that last pounded Bello) over just 4.2 innings. The caveat here is that Severino took a comebacker off the foot and remained in the game at significantly reduced velocity for the rest of that inning, in which nearly all the damage was done, before regaining that velocity in the next inning. Severino is up to a 21.8 K-BB% over his last five starts (12.8% season) and though he’s faced the Rockies, Marlins and Mariners over this stretch, he’s followed that up with the Padres and, as we saw, Diamondbacks. And although the ground ball rate has declined (46.9%) as the strikeouts have increased, he’s allowed just 5.8% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are above his 3.96 ERA, maxing out at a 4.33 SIERA, but the three pitches he throws more than 10% all exceed 50 PitchingBot grades with a 106 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (116 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.94
Any further movement towards the Mets might give the Red Sox some F5 value.
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a near 20 mph wind in from the left field corner immediately gives pitching a bump in one of the most negative run environments in the league anyway. Just pay attention to wind direction, in case it shifts across the field. Never the less, the Mets (4.1) are third from the top with the Red Sox (3.9) fifth from the bottom. I chose Severino ($6.8K) as my SP2 over SWR under these conditions and have him among that group with Musgrove (and Bello) as potentially the second best arm on the board. Either pitcher is fine here, it’s just that Bello’s issues with LHBs scare me a bit more with the Red Sox having more strikeouts in their lineup. Duran (162 wRC+, .292 ISO, 163 wRC+ L30 days) and Devers (176, .344, 65) still work here on a small slate, though keep in mind the latter has been playing through injury, as you can see recent performance suffer. Both exceed a 130 wRC+ on the road, but this is a massive park downgrade for the Boston offense, which has somehow been better away from Fenway this year. Severino is marginally tough to run on. The Mets have middling pen estimators L30 days with Diaz having Saturday off, but working four of the last five (63). A lot of NYM relievers have thrown often, but fewer than 20 pitches per outing over the last few days. Lindor (129, .196, 171) is the top rated bat for the Mets, but Winker (137, .176, 135) is cheap. Alvarez (90) is the only projected Met below a 105 wRC+ v RHP. Bello holds runners well, but the Red Sox still have the third worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:55 EST: Iglesias, D.J. Stewart (who I didn't even know was on the roster), Torrens in for Alvarez (two straight now), J.D. Martinez (paternity), Vientos. Only gain one LHB. Hoping Vientos isn't hurt again. Should note Torrens has thrown out 60% of runners this year.
Pirates @ Cubs
Jared Jones returned from a nearly two month IL stint to allow five runs and two home runs on three barrels (25%) with a 50 HardHIt% against these Cubs, striking out just four of 19 batters with three walks. His 7.2 SwStr% ties his second lowest mark of the season, though his velocity was in line. Over his last 10 starts, Jones now has a 4.83 ERA/4.56 FIP/4.79 xFIP combo with 10.8% Barrels/BBE and a 10.6 K-BB%. He’s been mediocre longer than he’s been good with just 17 starts total. Yet, though the numbers are decreasing, Stuff+ (126) and Pitching+ (109) still adore Jones, whose estimators are all within one-fifth of a run of his 3.88 ERA. Was his first start back just some rust or a continuation of the decline we’ve been seeing?
Opp wRC+: 99 (140 L7 days)
DEF: -20
B30: 4.31
Jameson Taillon has allowed 24 runs over his last 33 innings with a 14.7 K-BB% (14.1% season) and eight home runs on nine barrels (8.0%) and 41.1 HardHit%. In other words, what he’s done all season, but with more of his barrels leaving the yard and a 62 LOB%. All of Taillon’s estimators exceed his 3.85 ERA, but are within half a run. Taillon has had issues with LHBs being above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but RHBs are below .290. He really only has to worry about Reynolds and Cruz here. Like SWR, Taillon’s a guy you’d like to have at the back of your rotation, but probably don’t want to give post-season starts to.
Opp wRC+: 85 (24 K%, 86 Road, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.59
DFS Notes: Wrigley is oddly not the strongest wind on the board (6 mph in from RC), but it is below 70 degrees, which pushes it in a pitcher friendly direction none the less. The Cubs (4.03) are tied for the fourth highest team total with the Pirates (3.47) are tied for the second lowest. Taillon is in that group of number two potentials in a nice spot too, despite recent struggles. As mentioned above, Reynolds (132 wRC+, .195 ISO, 99 wRC+ L30 days) and Cruz (126, .196, .143) are his only worries from the left-hand side and he’s done a good job of smothering right-handed batters. It’s an easy combo to run on, but the Cubs have the fifth best pen estimators L30 days. I don’t know what to do with Jones. He looked rusty coming back, but has looked rusty for a 10 start stretch. He did throw 83 pitches, which means he should be on target for a full workload, but the Cubs are smoking hot. He’s also a bit of a reverse split guy. I think Happ (128, .218, 165) and Suzuki (139, .232, 127) play well here. Jones holds runners well, but the Pittsburgh pen has the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days and have inserted Chapman into the closer role.
Update 5:10 EST: IKF out, Gonzales bats leadoff.
Yankees @ Rangers
At least seven strikeouts with two or fewer walks in three of Gerrit Cole’s last four starts, but five walks and two strikeouts against Cleveland a couple of starts back keep the K-BB (17.4%) in good, but not great range. There’s also the three barrels and 53.3 HardHit% the Nationals tagged him with last time out. Cole isn’t entirely back yet, at least not consistently. It’s been 12 starts with a 3.86 ERA matching a 3.86 SIERA and a 3.81 dERA his only other estimator below four. A 112 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ suggest better might be coming, but all four PitchingBot grades between 52 to 64 result in a 3.90 Bot ERA that’s very close to actual results.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.4 K%, 80 L7 days)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 3.81
Jack Leiter struck out 20 of his last 37 batters at AAA with just two walks. He did have a 111 Stuff+ and 61 grade slider (PitchingBot) over three chaotic early season appearances and got the call again. Is striking out four of 21 White Sox with two walks considered a success? His velocity (97.2 mph) was up a mile and a half per hour with a 12.0 SwStr% that tops any of his first three starts too. The fastball (49.7%, 56 PB grade) and slider (28.8%, 63 PB grade) grade well. He just has to command. Anyone who’s old enough to remember his father might remember that he struggled for years with similar issues in New York (AL) and Toronto until he broke out in Miami in the late 90s years after losing his top prospect status.
Opp wRC+: 123 (10.6 K-BB%, 16.4 HR/FB, 118 Road, 127 L7 days)
DEF: 17
B30: 4.52
DFS Notes: A neutral run environment with the roof closed, as it almost always is, the Yankees top the board (4.86) with the Rangers (3.64) fourth form the bottom. I don’t think Cole should automatically be considered a top arm. He’s certainly among my group of twos, but the Rangers don’t strike out a lot. Only a pair in the projected lineup exceed a 21.1 K% v RHP this season. Seager (160 wRC+, .272 ISO v RHP, 148 wRC+ L30 days) plays against any RHP at home, but that’s about it here. The Yankees have middle of the board pen estimators L30 days. On the other side, you’re trying to stack Yankees. The funny thing is that I could not afford Judge (212, .370, 247), but did manage to get Torres (82, .088, 102), Wells (134, .225, 146), Soto (186, .301, 150) and Stanton (139, .298, 136) into one or both of my lineups. Chisholm (121, .216, 180) looks good here too. Leiter could easily blow up here. Like I said, I’d play him ahead of Madden (though I just realized the latter costs $4K), but it’s not like I’d actually play either of them. It’s just that at least Leiter has upside, which I don’t expect him to find this year or in this spot. Leiter and Heim are an easy combo to run on and the Rangers have the fifth worst pen estimators over the last 30 days and it’s also been heavily worked recently.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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