Five games from the finish line and I can commit to completing all games on Tuesday, but maybe not much beyond that. Daily fantasy notes will depend on how quickly I can work through the remaining five with no further updates. It's a shame because there are some sides and totals I'm borderline on and would like to have another look at in the afternoon. Right now it's just a small dog and a small favorite.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
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Angels @ Tigers
Johnny Cueto struck out one of 28 Royals in his first start with a 3.5 SwStr%, three barrels and a 60 HardHit%. This resulted in three runs over 6.1 innings. Projections average above five.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.1 K%, 113 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.23
Brant Hurter has only worked in long relief so far, but is listed as Tuesday’s starter. He’s struck out 17 of 69 batters with only one walk and three barrels (37.3 HardHit%). In just 17.2 innings, a 3.57 ERA meets a 3.62 FIP with as many home runs as barrels with everything else below that. Hurter may have an exceptional sinker (50.6%, 1.5 RV1/00, 67 PB grade) but just 91 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 99 (88 Road, 64 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 3.95
Royals @ Guardians
Michael Lorenzen has a 6.7 K-BB% and slightly subpar contact profile that generates estimators all more than a run above his 3.47 ERA, while none of his seven pitches exceeds a 47 PitchingBot grade, resulting in a Bot ERA above five. The one favorable aspect of this matchup is his reverse split. Right-handed batters are 100 points better by wOBA and 55 points by xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.2 K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 26.5
B30: 4.08
Gavin Williams can bring the heat (53.4%, 63 PB grade), but not much else. His 5.13 ERA is more than half a run above all estimators (.336 BABIP, 67.7 LOB%), but with only the FIP dropping below four. He also has a reverse split with RHBs above .350.
Opp wRC+: 102 (18.4 K%, 93 Road, 112 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.88
Athletics @ Reds
Mitch Spence struck out a season high 10 last time out. He’s only struck out as many as seven one other time. With a 12.7 K-BB%, estimators (3.73 dERA – 4.27 FIP) are well below his 4.67 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25.1 K%, 88 Home)
DEF: -25.5
B30: 3.44
The only unconfirmed pitcher on the slate. This might be Nick Lodolo. He struck out nine Pirates last time out, but also allowed five runs. It’s his highest strikeout total since April, though his third lowest run total in three starts, if you want to know how he’s going. All estimators are more than half a run below his 4.76 ERA with only the dERA (4.12) above four.
Opp wRC+: 110 (71 L7 days)
DEF: -11.5
B30: 3.76
I might have minor Oakland interest if Lodolo is confirmed at the current price (+122).
Cubs @ Pirates
With an 18.5 K-BB%, 4.4% Barrels/BB and 32.9 HardHit%, Justin Steele supports his 3.07 ERA with a 2.75 xERA, even if contact neutral estimators are half a run higher. PitchingBot grades of 63 for both the fastball and slider, the only two pitches he throws more than 5.2% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 96 (26.2 K%, 86 Home, 65 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.69
Jared Jones returns from a nearly two month IL stay, striking out 16 of the 43 batters he faced in AAA rehab starts, including 10 of 16 in his last one. His estimators range just from a 3.64 SIERA to a 3.75 FIP and xERA after starting strong and then falling off a bit. Still owning a 127 Stuff+ (109 Pitching+), PitchingBot grades range from 53 to 63.
Opp wRC+: 97 (135 L7 days)
DEF: -17
B30: 3.98
Astros @ Phillies
Traditionally a strong contact manager, who has beaten his contact neutral estimators, Justin Verlander’s 32.2 HardHit% with a 15.1 K-BB% produces a 3.67 xERA that’s below a 3.92 ERA. All other estimators are above four and a half. If that’s not conflicting enough for you, Verlander doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade above 51, but Stuff+ (120) can’t quit him.
Opp wRC+: 102 (115 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.26
Aaron Nola has just a 16.3 K-BB% that isn’t much better than Verlander, but has also handled contact well (37.2 HardHit%). However, his 3.91 xERA is just the mid-range of estimators from a 3.62 FIP to a 4.03 FIP, all just a bit above his 3.45 ERA. This coincides with his 3.66 Bot ERA and 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.5 K%, 111 L7 days)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.27
Yankees @ Nationals
While six of the 11 runs Gerrit Cole has allowed over his last seven starts came at the hands of the Mets in the Bronx, he shut out the Guardians on one hit through six innings, but it wasn’t pretty. Why not? Because he walked five and struck out just two. The numbers are starting to take shape with an average contact profile and 16.6 K-BB% that’s certainly subpar for Cole. If you throw out the first two starts, where he may have been shaking off some rust, it’s a 19.5 K-BB% that’s closer to top of the rotation stuff. Pitch modeling still loves him (112 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+). All four pitches have PitchingBot grades above 50, but only the curveball (61) gets above 54 with a 3.90 Bot ERA. With that, RHBs have a .356 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him. There are still some things that might need to be ironed out here and this isn’t entirely a pushover offense anymore.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.85
Guess what Patrick Corbin did last time out? He threw 26.3% cutters and struck out eight Rockies. When he’s thrown more cutters (60 PitchingBot grade) he’s had some success, but he only throws it 17.6% of the time. The last two times he’s thrown it more than 25% of the time, six innings, one run. The Yankees are a bit better than the Rockies and Reds and Corbin’s other pitches are garbage, but almost all of his estimators are more than a run below his 5.73 ERA (.342 BABIP, 65.3 LOB%). The one that isn’t? His 5.82 xERA (47.8 HardHit%).
Opp wRC+: 107 (118 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.41
Don’t do it to me, don’t do it to me….damn it, they did it. We haven’t seen prime Cole this year aside from a few brief flashes. The team wRC+ against L/RHP is only separated by 10 points and the Nationals are actually fielding a positive defense sine the deadline. I knew the numbers were going to find value on the Nationals (+194), but what do I do about it now? Perhaps wait for it to rise in this case?
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Yariel Rodriguez has allowed nine runs on four home runs and barrels (16%) over his last 9.1 innings. You never know what he’s going to do and you never know when the Blue Jays are going to pull him. He’s only reached the six inning mark twice, in back to back early July starts. He’s still allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE, but with a walk rate nearly twice that (11.6%). His 4.33 ERA matches his xFIP and is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. He has a massive reverse split with RHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA, but LHBs below .280. The slider (27.4%, 0.2 RV/100, 58 PB grade) is his only above average pitch.
Opp wRC+: 112 (93 L7 days)
DEF: 23
B30: 4.70
Cooper Criswell is the opposite of Rodriguez. He doesn’t miss bats (18 K%), but has great control (6.5 BBB%) and has been a strong contact manager (6.3% Barrels/BBE too, but with a better 36.1 HardHit%). Well, actually, maybe they’re a lot the same too because Criswell has completed six innings just twice, in back to back starts before and after the break. His 4.41 ERA is above, but within half a run (barely) of all estimators (66.1 LOB%). He also has a reverse split, but just 30 points. Criswell only has one below average pitch though. Everything except the cutter exceeds a 55 PitchingBot grade to go along with a 103 Stuff+ mark (99 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 104 (20.3 K%, 153 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.69
Braves @ Twins
Spencer Schwellenbach’s name isn’t even really Spencer, but Spencer Strider went down and they told him to just go pitch like him, so he assumed the name too. Here I am cracking jokes with no time. A 32.9 K-BB% over his last six starts has his season mark up to 23.9% and his 3.94 ERA is more than half a run above all estimators running mostly in the low threes. He does have a 50 to 60 point standard split, which could be a problem against this offense, but he throws five pitches more than 10% of the time and all have PitchingBot grades of 58 or higher. The problem is, the Twins don’t have any single pitch weaknesses. Well, maybe the sinker (-0.26 wSI/C), but that’s the only pitch he throws less than 10% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 112 (125 Home, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.29
SWR has turned himself into an average pitcher, missing enough bats (21.2 K%) while walking fewer than the average pitcher (7.5%). The 9.1% Barrels/BBE are a problem, but with just a 36.5 HardHit%, we’re looking at estimators from a 3.92 FIP to a 4.36 xERA, which are a bit above his 3.69 ERA and…pretty average. The reverse split (RHBs .309 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) is not ideal against the current iteration of the Altanta lineup though.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.62
Padres @ Cardinals
Dylan Cease rebounded for a quality start after walking five at Coors, though he did allow nine hits in a reversal of BABIP fortune (.264 season). When he keeps the ball in the park (9.7% Barels/BBE), Cease has been a beast (22.9 K-BB%) and doesn’t allow much hard contact overall (36.7%). While this recent run has dropped his ERA to 3.43, it’s still above, but now within one-third of a run of all estimators. He throws two pitches 88% of the time because they’re both within two points of a 60 PitchingBot grades, while the Cardinals struggle against both fastballs (-0.59 wFA/C) and sliders (-0.35 wSL/C). Along with a 3.34 Bot ERA, Cease is posting 123 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -12
B30: 2.54
Before shutting out the Brewers on two hits over six innings last time out, Miles Mikolas had allowed 25 runs over his previous 31 innings with 9.8% Barrels/BBE. He didn’t allow a barrel and only four hard hit batted balls against the Brewers, but he was also pitching with reduced velocity and a 4.4 SwStr%. He still doesn’t walk anybody (3.8%), but the contact profile is declining (40.5 HardHit%) and the strikeout rate is dropping further (16.5%). The 5.19 ERA is still above estimators ranging from (and get this) a 4.14 xFIP and FIP to a 4.37 SIERA, dERA and xERA, while LHBs have a .337 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Symmetry! Mikolas’s pitch grades are all the same too!
No, that’s not true, but they are all in the 50s.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.7 K%, 110 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.33
I’m giving Cease about two-thirds of a run on MIkolas. Combine that with a significant offensive edge and massive bullpen one and I don’t think a small St Louis defensive advantage with home field comes close to making the Padres only a -130 favorite. Follow RockyJade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Rangers @ White Sox
Andrew Heaney has struck out 16 of his last 42 batters, breaking out of a run with five shutout innings against the Pirates last time out. The home run ball had become a problem, allowing six on nine barrels over his previous four starts. Even now, with 8.1% Barrels/BBE and a 39.5 HardHit%, the Rangers will take it with a 17.1 K-BB%. Heaney’s one of the few things that’s gone okay for Texas this season. His 4.04 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators, except for an outlier 4.61 dERA. Pitch modeling is not buying on the stuff (80 Stuff+), but that runs up to a 98 Stuff+ with a 57 grade fastball (53%) driving a 3.85 Bot ERA that fits his other estimators.
Opp wRC+: 73 (24.8 K%, 77 Home, 72 L7 days)
DEF: 13
B30: 4.51
Garrett Crochet has faced exactly 16 batters in four straight starts, going exactly four innings in four of them and striking out 20 of 64 batters with five walks. Sitting on a 28.3 K-BB% on the season, shorter outings have allowed him to recapture some lost velocity, as he’s averaged 98 mph over his last two starts. On the season, all estimators are more than three-quarters of a run below his 3.64 ERA with 16 of his 26 barrels leaving the yard. He’ll be bringing the heat (55.3%, 1.1 RV/100, 67 PB grade) against the right opponent on Tuesday (Rangers -0.45 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 97 (89 Road, 42 L7 days)
DEF: -19
B30: 4.89
Yup, the White Sox suck, but the Rangers are bad and getting worse. Give me one of the best pitchers in baseball against an average one for four innings or twice through the order and I’ll take my chances with the worst pen against the fifth worst pen estimators L30 days at +130.
Already played full game, but +110 F5 just popped up on DK and might be slightly better value.
Giants @ Brewers
Four runs over Logan Webb’s last 37.1 innings and that’s just five starts with an 18 K-BB% (15% season), just four barrels (3.9%) and 40.2 HardHit%, which is a reduction from his season rate (46.6%). In fact, he’s at 40.3% over his last 12 starts. Now with an above average K-BB and most his contact on the ground (56.1%), a pitcher like this can thrive with a hard hit rate around 40%. The xERA is still at 4.08, half a run above all other estimators (3.58 SIERA), which are about half a run above his 3.13 ERA (just seven of 36 barrels have left the yard – 2.75 FIP). Three straight starts of at least seven innings with exactly 27 batters faced. The sweeper (21.7%, 65 PB grade) and changeup (33%, 63 PB grade) are the foundation of a 3.19 Bot ERA that compares to 113 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 107 (incl. Mon from here on)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.56
Tobias Myers has gone a long way to help the Brewers out with some of their starting pitching troubles, but his 15.0 K-BB% with an average contact profile, don’t exactly support his 2.87 ERA with all estimators between a run and a run and a half higher (83 LOB%). He has just one quality start over his last six starts, not because he’s pitching poorly, but because he’s only completed six innings that many times. Myers has a 91 Stuff+ that works up to only a 97 Pitching+, along with a 4.49 Bot ERA that are a bit less optimistic than estimators with LHBs owning a .325 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against him. Solid back end of the rotation arm, not as good as the surface results.
Opp wRC+: 95 (88 L7 days)
DEF: 17.5
B30: 3.59
Marlins @ Rockies
Roddery Munoz has allowed 23 home runs on 33 barrels (13.1%) with a 44.6 HardHit% and 7.9 K-BB%. This shouldn’t work at Coors, but they played a 3-2 game last night. His best estimator is a 5.04 SIERA with an xERA and FIP approaching seven. Munoz only has one pitch (sinker 22.8%) exceeding a 40 PitchingBot grade, though the Rockies are only in the positive against sinkers (0.02 wSI/C) and just barely.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.8 K%, 88 Home, 65 L7 days)
DEF: -4 (better defenses on the field than team numbers)
B30: 4.02
Cal Qauntrill has 6.41 ERA/5.79 FIP/4.76 xFIP combo over his last 11 starts and is down to just an 8.6 K-BB% on the season. All estimators are above his 4.56 ERA without reaching five, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .329 and .353 wOBA and xwOBA against him. A 4.94 Bot ERA with 92 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ grades evaluate similarly.
Opp wRC+: 86 (78 Road, 114 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.74
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Sean Manaea has at least nine strikeouts in three of his last five starts (24.6 K-BB%) with exactly seven innings in four of them, allowing exactly three runs in three straight (9 ER – 17 IP). See, it’s not all cherry picked. The Mariners are a part of that run, but his only non-quality start with five walks and three strikeouts. It just illustrates the inconsistency, while Manaea has non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.00 xERA to a 4.20 dERA that are more than half a run above his 3.48 ERA (.263 BABIP), though that’s about what the Mets probably hoped for when signing him on the cheap. Manaea throws six different pitches with the sinker (39.7%, 1.4 RV/100, 54 PB grade) easily the best of them, resulting in a 4.61 Bot ERA and 87 Stuff+ that only works up to a 96 Pitching+. The 9.2 BB% rears it’s ugly head inconsistently, which means he’ll have some gems and some where he walks the park. With Marte, Walker and Moreno out, the Diamondbacks may be better against LHP at this point.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20.2 K%, 116 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 2
B30: 4.02
After a bounce back last season, Eduardo Rodriguez is down below his 2022 velocity, averaging 91.5 mph through his first three starts, but has ticked up slightly with each start (91.8 mph last start). With two walks and just one strikeout in his first start (Cleveland), E-Rod has struck out 10 of 45 batters with two walks since, but those starts were against the Rockies and Marlins, making it really difficult to evaluate where he is. I’m looking to pitch modeling and seeing a mixed bag. The main two (fastball, changeup make up 67.4% of pitches) exceed 55 PitchingBot grades, but the 74 Stuff+ is concerning (97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 114 (109)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.34
Rays @ Mariners
Jeffrey Springs struggled to shake off the rust in his first two starts, but looked like he was rounding into form over his next two, despite velocity that continued to decline. That all game to a head in Oakland, where he averaged 89.9 mph (91.7 mph last year and career), failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Velocity isn’t everything, especially for a pitcher like this, who already started on the low end, but this is a bit concerning. That said, the 16.8 K-BB% is fine. The 10.1% Barrels/BBE and 47.8 HardHit% aren’t. Batters from the right side have smoked him for a .405 wOBA, but reduced .339 xwOBA, which he can live with if he continues to keep LHBs below .270. The changeup (32.9%, 60 PB grade) has been his only above average pitch, resulting in a 4.63 Bot ERA, 88 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (27 K%)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.13
Despite a 23 K-BB% that exceeds his 20.5% season rate, Logan Gilbert has allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts (only 18 of 25 earned, but still not ideal over 33.1 innings). With just 5.3% Barrels/BBE, a 44.7 HardHit% none the less bears some responsibility, but a 36.6 LOB% is ridiculous, driving his season rate down to just 67.5%. Despite that, Gilbert’s 3.21 ERA befits estimators ranging from a 3.21 dERA to a 3.44 SIERA because he’s counterbalanced by a .240 BABIP. The K-BB increases to 23.6% at home. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, but at home, they’re below a .250 wOBA. All five pitches merit PB grades between 54 and 60 with a 119 Stuff+ (104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.3 K%, 81 L7 days)
DEF: -16.5
B30: 4.51
Orioles @ Dodgers
With a 15.6 K% and 12.6% Barrels/BBE, I don’t see any way this can go well for Cole Irvin, but somehow envision six innings of one run ball with like two strikeouts. His best estimator is a 4.61 FIP and that’s because Baltimore contains many of those barrels (just 25% have been home runs at home). Batters from the right-side have a .388 wOBA and .398 xwOBA against him, but this may not be a great Ohtani and Freeman spot (LHBs below .260).
Opp wRC+: 116 (19.3 K%, 120 Home, 133 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.97
Still wondering what the Yankees saw in the medicals. Jack Flaherty hasn’t completed six innings since his first Dodger start, while his 24.7 K-BB% is actually below his season mark (27%). His HardHit rate has increased five points to 40.3% with the Dodgers. Four of his last five barrels (11.1%) have left the park, resulting in nine runs over his last 16.1 innings with a .341 BABIP and 80.5 LOB%. How do you like those numbers? On the season, a 3.22 xERA and FIP are his only estimator exceeding a 3.00 ERA, which extend as low as a 2.68 xFIP. A 96 Stuff+ and 3.96 Bot ERA are not what you expect to see from a guy having this kind of season with PitchingBot grades between 54 and 56 on his three main pitches.
Opp wRC+: 115 (20.9 K%, 115 Road, 66 L7 days)
DEF: -4
B30: 4.03
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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