A few things to note before we start. I have some scheduling conflicts all week long, so we'll go as we can and see what works out. Right now, everything beyond today could be in jeopardy. I don't expect to miss more than a day or two overall, though I don't know when that will be yet.
Also, moving into the football season, I don't intend on stopping, but will let the site traffic be our guide the rest of the way. I'm not going to put in the work if nobody is reading it. Maybe it just means some shorter posts.
Lastly, we start a chaotic week with a chaotic Monday schedule that includes a double-header and another suspended game that's really like a second double-header. Taking my cue from DraftKings because they post their slates much earlier in the day than Fanduel, it looks like they're going with a six game board starting with the second game in Boston, which I hope to have some lineup clarity on at a reasonable time.
Anything posted on Sunday night includes stats through Saturday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Royals @ Guardians (G1)
Averaging 94.7 mph over his last nine starts (95.6 on the season), Cole Ragans has produced a 20.6 K-BB% that’s only slightly brought his season rate down to 21.6%. His 3.31 ERA is within one-tenth of a run (0.1) of all non-FIP estimators He has one PitchingBot grade below 50 (on his fifth pitch thrown 9.6%), while his to most frequent pitches both have 61 grades with a 109 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+. Same-handed batters have a .330 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him with RHBs at least 35 points lower. It’ll be interesting to see if Cleveland decides to attack him with more LHBs than usual.
Opp wRC+: 109 (20.9 K%, 109 Home, 84 L7 days)
DEF: 21.5
B30: 3.87
Nick Sandlin being listed to start this game implied either an opener situation or full on bullpen game. I’m lean against the latter option because of who they have pitching game two, which I’ll explain below.
Opp wRC+: 102 (18.5 K%, 93 Road, 110 L7 days)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 3.90
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (Susp)
This will be the resumption of a suspended game, It was called in the second inning, so virtually a double header. The game was halted with Danny Jansen at bat...for the Blue Jays. He will become the first player to play for two different teams in the same game. Joel Youngblood played an afternoon game for the Mets and then was traded to the Giants and played that night in 1982 I believe.
Royals @ Guardians (G2)
Alec Marsh and his 9.8% Barrels/BBE (4.71 ERA, 5.04 xERA) were optioned to the minors at the end of July. His 14.4 K-BB% was fine, generating contact neutral estimators around half a run below his ERA, but too many fat pitches, intended to be elevated (I assume) landed in the middle of the plate. Just one home run with a 27.1 K-BB% in 19 AAA innings. Pitch modeling thinks he can be okay (100 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+). Right-handed batters are within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.2 K%)
DEF: 24.5
B30: 3.87
Logan Allen being listed to start this game implies the Guardians are going to need a lot of bullpen coverage for this game, which makes me think they’re looking towards a game one bulk guy. He was optioned a week after Marsh, but also a month before him (one start in August) with an even worst 11.1% Barrels/BBE, 46.2 HardHit% and 10.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half with a matching 5.63 xERA and FIP nearly matching his 5.56 ERA. Batters from the right side exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The pitch modeling perusing really stops and ends with the 72 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 94 (17.7 K%, 7.0 HR/FB)
DEF: 14
B30: 3.90
Cubs @ Pirates
Jameson Taillon has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts, but with a 15.5 K-BB% that’s actually increased his season mark to 14.3% and a 36.4 HardHit% that’s right on his season rate (36.2%), we’ve found two culprits. One is the seven barrels and seven home runs. The other is a 62.5 LOB% .He was due some regression, still with a 3.77 ERA that’s right in line with a 3.81 xERA, but below additional estimators ranging from a 4.14 FIP to a 4.23 SIERA. Really tight range with an even lower 3.69 ERA. How does he do that? How about PitchingBot grades above 55 (two in the 60s) on three of the four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time. Left-handed batters have given him some trouble (.336 wOBA, .329 xwOBA) with RHBs below .280.
Opp wRC+: 82 (24.4 K%, 85 Home, 55 L7 days)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.65
Emphasized how all the numbers screamed that Mitch Keller was a perfectly average pitcher last time out and then he went ahead and struck out nine Rangers over seven shutout innings with just three hits. The Texas offense has disappointed this year, but not in their strikeout rates. Maybe the emphases should remain that Keller still has estimators ranging from a 3.91 FIP and xERA to a 4.17 dERA that are slightly above his 3.76 ERA. Keller throws four different pitchers more than 10% of the time, all PB grades from 48 to 59 with perfectly average 100 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks. Keller has some trouble with LHBs (.324 wOBA, .308 xwOBA) with RHBs just below .300
Opp wRC+: 98 (125 L7 days)
DEF: -19
B30: 4.04
Those two starting pitcher profiles read very similarly. I actually have Keller less than a quarter of a run ahead on weighted estimators. When you combine that with at least small edges everywhere else to the Cubs (including base running), I believe we have ample reason to back the road team here (-108). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 5 EST: Around 80 degrees with a light wind out to right. Gonzales back for PIT, Bart out. Have a slight lean towards Taillon over 4.5 Ks (+130) simply because he faces 24 batters per start and PIT LU avg 22.7 K% v RHP. It's really very borderline. A surprising 3.13% loss on CHC. People really like Keller.
Astros @ Phillies
In fairness to myself, I also emphasized Ronel Blanco’s averagish tendencies before he walked four and allowed five runs in fewer than four innings last time out. With a 14.6 K-BB% and now 9.4% Barrels/BBE, but just a 35.2 HardHit%, estimators ranging from a 4.00 xERA to a 4.33 FIP are well above his 3.14 ERA (.208 BABIP, 80 LOB%). Pitch modeling is a bit below average (4.49 Bot ERA, 95 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+), while LHBs have a .297 wOBA, but .351 xwOBA with RHBs below .275.
Opp wRC+: 101 (115 Home)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 4.17
Zack Wheeler has allowed more than two runs in just three of his last 21 starts with 10 quality starts of more than six innings over that span. A 28.6 K-BB% over his last four starts has him up to 20.7% on the season for a perennially elite contact manager (33.4 HardHit%). PitchingBot grades between 64 and 67 on his three most frequently thrown pitches (3.03 Bot ERA) to go along with 105 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks, Wheeler has estimators ranging from a 2.99 xERA to a 3.52 dERA that are a bit above his 2.73 ERA (.245 BABIP, 79.3 LOB%). While LHBs have given him some trouble (.317 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), Wheeler has dominated RHBs (below .220).
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.4 K%)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 4.17
Update 4:10 EST: Around 80 with a light wind in from center. Alvarez is back, but Altuve is out. Four LHBs for Houston. Large line movement towards Phils.
Yankees @ Nationals
Nestor Cortes is coming off back to back seven inning shutout performances with three hits, striking out 13 of 47 struggling Guardians and terrible White Sox. The Chicago game was only his second quality start on the road all season long. Cortes’s K-BB drops 4.7% and his wOBA against rises .098 points on the road as compared to home this year. Batters from the right side have a .385 wOBA against him on the road this year. Overall, his 4.00 ERA matches his 4.00 SIERA. It’s below h is 4.61 dERA, but above his 3.59 xERA. With a 99 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+, perhaps we have another average pitcher here? PitchingBot grades range from 49 to 56.
Opp wRC+: 86 (19.7 K%, 6.5 HR/FB, 122 L7 days)
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.84
As a home start against the Rockies will generally do for one, Mitchell Parker snapped out of his downward spiral with seven innings of one run ball, striking out six with a single walk. The Phillies did torch him for nine runs the start before, but Parker has an 18.7 K-BB% over his last three starts, which brings his season rate (14%) back above average again (4.4% previous four starts). Hell, he’s only allowed two barrels with a 29.1 HardHit% over his last three starts too. Parker’s 4.26 ERA matches his 4.27 SIERA with additional estimators ranging from a 3.98 FIP to a 4.79 dERA. Batters have an actual eight point standard split against Parker, which Statcast opens up to 86 points by xwOBA. An 88 Stuff+ works up to a 98 Pitching+ with three of four pitches between 48 and 56 PitchingBot grades.
Opp wRC+: 105 (118 Road)
DEF: -5 (fielding a more positive defense since deadline)
B30: 4.41
I hope you noticed some comparable patterns above here too. I’m giving Cortes a bit more than one-third of a run edge here. With both teams in their worst batting splits against LHP, I still give the Yankees a significant edge, but that’s the only area of this game I can currently say that about. They have smaller defensive and bullpen edges, while the Nationals (+154) are a much better base running team.
Update 3:55 EST: Around 80 degrees with a light wind across the field. Three LHBs for the Nationals, four for the Yankees against a pair of LHP with normal splits. Dylan Crews debuts for Washington. A 0.91% loss on the Nationals.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Jose Berrios has thrown four quality starts of seven innings with a total of five runs over his last five starts (six runs for the Yankees in the other one). He’s struck out 25 of 108 with four walks in those starts (Reds, A’s, Angels, Rangers). As you can see, he was bombed by one of the two competent offenses he faced (I’m including the A’s) in that span. His 12.0 K-BB% with 8% Barrels/BBE and 42.2 HadrHit% on the season generate estimators (4.33 dERA – 4.97 FIP & xERA) all more than half a run above his 3.79 ERA (.255 BABIP, 81.7 LOB%). Statcast produces an xwOBA above .340 for batters from both sides, while PItchingBot grades range from 47 (fastball) to 57 (sliurve) (4.11 Bot ERA) with a 92 Stuff+ working up to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 112 (83 L7 days)
DEF: 23
B30: 4.64
Nick Pivetta has allowed 21 runs (20 earned) over his last 24 innings with a 21.7 K-BB% (though three walks and just two strikeouts last time out) with starts in Coloardo, Texas, Baltimore and Houston over that span. In his case, it’s not all BABIP (.283) with some strand (65%), but also the 11 barrels (15.7%) with the 48.6 HardHit% in those starts. That doesn’t mean he should have allowed multiple home runs in all five starts (he only allowed a single barrel in three of them). But things are not going his way with his only quality start at home against Seattle during this stretch, immediately after shutting out the Dodgers in LA over six innings. We already know the FIP is fluky, but Pivetta’s 4.70 ERA is well above additional estimators not reaching four with a fluky reverse split (RHBs .350 wOBA, .321 xwOBA), Pivetta throws three pitches more than seven percent of the time, all receiving PitchingBot grades of 57 or higher to go along with a nasty 135 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 104 (20.3 K%, 143 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.79
DFS Notes: Weather will play some part on a six game slate with just one protected environment and that impact will be in temperatures and, in one spot, some rain potential. The two Coors teams get above five implied runs with just two more above four and a half and two more at exactly four and a half runs, while three teams fall below four, two on the west coast, but also the once mighty Braves. Lineups are almost too easy to build on this slate. Offensive options are plentiful, pitching isn’t too expensive and catcher is really the only tough spot on the board. You can stack virtually whatever offense you want.
Now for the confusing part. FanDuel is going with an eight game slate, starting a half hour earlier, but not including the game in Boston. I only set up for the DraftKings six game slate because they post their slate much earlier. I’ll try to mention strong values on FanDuel in these games too.
We start with the lowest temperature of the day, just below 70 with a light breeze in from right at Fenway. There’s some potential for weather issues here, but not likely. The low temperatures may take a bit off of the park run factor, though Boston is only the second most hitter friendly park on the slate in a vacuum. Pivetta is not in a great spot against a predominantly right-handed lineup that doesn’t strike out much in a tough park. There are enough strikeouts in the Boston lineup for Berrios to be of interest for $8K on a small slate. The Red Sox (4.93) are third from the top with the Blue Jays (4.07) fourth from the bottom though. Will Wagner (178 wRC+, .120 ISO v RHP) is too cheap to ignore ($2.5K), while Vlad (160, .225 + 152 wRC+ on the road) is a top bat on this slate and Springer (98, .173) rates well too, though he and Horwitz are the only projected Jays below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Pivetta/Wong can be run on and the Jays have the third worst pen estimators L30 days plus who knows who’ll be used in the first game? Same for the Red Sox, who are fourth worst. Lucas Sims has thrown 38 pitches over the last two days. The top four for Boston (Duran, Abreu, Casas, Devers) all rate well Casas is the low man in wRC+ (139) and ISO (.250) against RHP among the four. All have at least a 135 wRC+ L30 days and 124 wRC+ at home. Berrios/Kirk are almost impossible to run on though.
Update 5:45 EST: The so clever Red Sox pulled the rug out from under us. Pivetta went six in the suspended game. This one looks like a bullpen game for them. Zach Kelly opening. For the Jays, Varsho, Horwitz and Wagner are out.
Braves @ Twins
Max Fried is coming off of seven innings of two run ball with four hits against the Phillies, but still has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) over his last 20.2 innings, although he allowed just a single barrel with a 55.6 GB% and 13 K-BB% that are similar to his season rates. He’s sustained the near average strikeout rate (22.6%) and elite contact profile (58,5 GB%, 4.7% Barrels/BBE, 34.2 HardHit%) he’s had for virtually his entire career, but with an 8.6 BB% this year. His 3.57 ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators both above and below it. Perhaps Minnesota will attack Fried with more LHBs (.398 wOBA, .341 xwOBA) as some smarter teams have done lately with RHBs below .300. His 95 Stuff+ works up to a 99 Pitching+, while the curveball (21.2%, 65 PB grade) is his only PitchingBot grade above 55.
Opp wRC+: 113 (20.8 K%, 126 Home, 117 L7 days)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.36
Ten straight quality starts for Bailey Ober, just two with three earned runs and five exceeding six innings. With a 20.1 K-BB% and 35.6 HardHit%, His 3.54 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with only a 3.34 xERA running below that due to the 33 GB%. Like Fried, Ober has a reverse split, but with RHBs still owning just a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. A command (102 Pitching+) over stuff (90 Stuff+) type, all three pitches thrown more than 20% of the time exceed 50 PitchingBot grades with a 68 grade changeup (26.7%, 1.7 RV/100) leading the way.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.78
I have these pitchers almost exactly on par, giving Atlanta the one-third run bullpen edge over the last 30 days, that still leaves the Twins (-108), who are monstrous at home, with a decent offensive advantage, as well as defensive and base running ones too.
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a light breeze in from around the left-field pole area, we could have some rain issues if this one runs long. As mentioned, the Braves are third from the bottom (3.87) with the Twins middle of the board (4.13). A much more volatile Fried against the best home offense in the league does not strike me as a particularly great value within $300 of $9K, especially when there’s a pinch of rain concern. Ober, on the other hand, is my top rated pitcher, but also the most expensive. I currently have him as my SP1 on DK with an eye on the forecast. Ozuna (163 wRC+, .302 ISO v RHP) and Soler (101, .173) rate best against Ober’s reverse split, but better values on FD, where the latter is just $3.1K. They are the only two projected Braves above a 100 wRC+ on the road this year, but the Twins have the seventh best pen estimators L30 days behind Ober, though with Duran (41) and Jax (31) pitching both Saturday and Sunday. Maybe they want seven innings of Ober followed by rain. Lewis (164, .276) and Santana (165, .288) are of light interest here, though I’m not really keen on attacking Fried with the third best pen estimators over the last month behind him. Fried/Murphy are easy to run on though.
Update 4:20 EST: Jeffers out and he may have been my top rated catcher (not counting FD). Laureano in for Harris increases K-rate, but also just two LHBs against Ober's reverse split. Nice 3.83% gain on MIN.
Padres @ Cardinals
Randy Vasquez was sent down for a couple of starts and 10 runs in 7.1 innings later with just five strikeouts, three walks and three home, his return isn’t exactly based on merit. Without a PitchingBot grade below 51 to go along with 106 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks, Vasquez certainly has more interesting pitch modeling than results with an 8.7 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE leading to estimators ranging from a 4.74 xFIP and FIP to a 5.93 xERA all above his 4.63 ERA. While RHBs have been just average against him (.309 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), LHBs have destroyed him above a .430 rate.
Opp wRC+: 102 (102 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 2.74
I’m going to go ahead and assume that anyone reading an article like this is very familiar with Kyle Gibson. Occasionally, he’ll pop a strong one or get bombed, but it’s generally what his 4.22 ERA and estimators within a quarter of a run say it is with one exception and that’s a 5.04 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE, a career worst mark by nearly two points. The core of the damage has been done by LHBs (.352 wOBA, .359 xwOBA). The same curveball (8.7%) that’s Gibson’s worst pitch by run value (-2.6 RV/100) is his best graded pitch (51 PitchingBot).
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.7 K%, 110 Road)
DEF: 0
B30: 4.27
DFS Notes: Ninety degrees with a light wind out to left boost the neutral run environment here. Add in the two pitchers and we have both offenses at 4.5 implied runs and that might be light. I’m looking at bats here with absolutely no interest in pitching. The entire San Diego lineup probably plays here. They all exceed a 100 wRC+ v RHP with only Arraez, Bogaerts and McCoy below a .165 ISO and only Cronenworth and Arraez below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Despite that, the latter pair are two of my top three rated Padres in this matchup with Jackson Merrill (148, .222, 165) my top rated guy. Merrill (150) and Cronenworth (130) hit very well on the road and the St Louis bullpen has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days. On the other side, the best pen estimators over the last 30 days by a mile is a bit of a problem, but not enough of one when LHBs are smoking the starting pitcher above a .430 wOBA and xwOBA. They also threw everyone in Sunday’s game, though only Hoeing (21) more than 20 pitches in Adam (34) working even two of the last three. Get your runs early off Vasquez, whom they can run on too. Burleson (135, .211), Nootbaar (111, .181) and Donovan (110, .138) are all affordable and even Winn (102, .094) rates well out of the leadoff spot with RHBs around average against Vasquez too. I’m for stacking STL & SDP LHBs on both sites as much as I can.
Update 4:45 EST: Five LHBs for STL. Split a unit between o5.5 (+100) F5 and SDP +105 with their massive bullpen and offensive edges. Could also have gone SDP o4.5.
Tigers @ White Sox
Ty Madden is a 45 Future Value arm (Fangraphs) with a winter scouting report suggesting a “high probability” back end starter before producing a 16.8 K-BB% at AAA over 79 innings with a walk rate barely into double digits (10.8%), but also a professional high. It’s a surprise that Steamer is the only major system even projecting him (4.37 ERA, 4.47 FIP).
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%, 77 Home, 50 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.99
Davis Martin has begun throwing a changeup about one-quarter of the time over his last three starts and it may just be his best pitch (3 RV/100, 56 PB grade). He’s allowed four runs (three earned) over 16 innings with a 12.5 K-BB% with just two barrels in road starts against both Bay Area teams and at home against the Yankees. Early estimators run between a 4.11 FIP and 4.58 SIERA, but with a different pitch mix for his first 6.1 innings and two outings.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.1 K%, 112 L7 days)
DEF: -22.5
B30: 4.98
DFS Notes: It’s also 90 degrees in Chicago with a near double digit wind blowing across the field. The White Sox (4.09) are middle of the board with the Tigers (4.91) fourth from the top. What I can say about Madden, who I know very little about, is that he costs $4K against a terrible offenses, even if it’s not the greatest of conditions. I don’t think you need to pay that low though. Martin has been a bit more interesting recently, but the Detroit offense may be even more interesting with some new and returning LHBs. With xwOBA raising LHBs 60 points to a .326 xwOBA against Martin in a small sample, Carpenter (177 wRC+, .340 ISO v RHP, 157 wRC+ L30 days), Greene (148, .220, 116) and Meadows (106, .208, 165) all look good here, where Vierling (107, .201, 120) and Keith (100, .142, 105) should play too. All are average (100) or better hitters on the road too. Davis/Lee are tough to run on, but the Sox are the worst bullpen in the league by last 30 day estimators. As far as the Chicago projected lineup goes, Sheets (102) has the best wRC+ v RHP with only Robert (.217) above a .160 ISO.
Update 5:35 EST: Temps could dip below 90 now. No Greene.
Marlins @ Rockies
Edward Cabrera’s 13.3 BB% (14.8% last seven starts) is unlikely to play well at Coors. He’s down to a 12.2 K-BB% (5.2% L7). Add in 9.9% Barrels/BBE with a 45.9 HardHit% and the xERA is up to 5.07, still well below his 5.65 ERA with 13 of his 17 barrels leaving the yard, but it feels like we’ve been talking about his talent for a long time without any consistent growth. The main secondaries (changeup, curveball) exceed a 50 PitchingBot grade, but the fastball is so bad (31) that he still merits a 5.07 Bot ERA too. Left-handed batters have a .359 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 85 (25.8 K%, 88 Home, 65 L7 days) (incl. Sun)
DEF: -4
B30: 3.93
Ryan Feltner (still unconfirmed) makes his return from the IL after a near three week absence after getting blown up in a short rehab outing that lasted 15 batters. Temper your expectations for maybe Colorado’s most competent starter, carrying a 12.8 K-BB% (14.7% at home) with an average contact profile as well (.335 xwOBA at home). Another pitcher with LHBs exceeding a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, Feltner’s estimators ranging from a 4.16 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA are well below his 5.00 ERA (62.9 LOB%). Pitch modeling confirms his near average performance with 98 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 86 (78 Road, 119 L7 days)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.74
DFS Notes: Around 80 with a light breeze across the field and both teams at 5.25 implied runs, I wouldn’t boot either pitcher from my DK multi-entry pool for $6K. Both offenses are bad enough with both pitchers showing very occasional upside. That said, Rodgers (75 wRC+, .125 ISO v RHP), Jones (70, .127) and Romo (35, .091) appear the only poor values in the Colorado projected lineup, though none made my DK single entry. Blackmon (81, .142) and Toglia (96, .245) rate best with Cabrera really struggling against LHBs. The Fish now have middling pen estimators over the last 30 days. For the Marlins, Edwards (142, .088) and Burger (116, .212) rate best. Batters from either side are between a .317 and .354 wOBA and xwOBA against Feltner with LHBs about 20 to 30 points higher. Sanchez (114, .199), Bride (133, .208) and Norby (129, .308) are interesting as well. None of the other four exceed an 80 wRC+ v RHP this year. The Rockies have the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:10 EST: Edwards still out. Norby bats leadoff. Blackmon and Tovar out. Just four LHBs for the Rockies.
Rays @ Mariners
Ryan Pepiot has allowed four runs (two earned) in 11.1 innings back from the IL, striking out 10 of 45 batters with two walks, no barrels and a 31.3 HardHit%. He’s only hit the six inning mark twice over his last eight starts, exceeding 90 pitches once, so you know Tampa Bay is going to be conservative with young starters. His 3.65 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with only the dERA (4.06) sneaking above four. Pepiot has struck out 26.2% of his batters and pitch modeling will tell you there’s more upside there with a 72 grade changeup (PB) and 117 Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28 K%, 83 L7 days) (incl. Sun)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.17
Bryce Miller has a 22.9 K-BB% and .278 xwOBA allowed at home this year, where he has nine quality starts of two runs or less in 13 starts. Overall, Miller’s 3.32 ERA is about half a run below non-FIP estimators from 3.85 SIERA to a 3.96 dERA, but considering his extreme splits, is he ever really that pitcher? The FIP was omitted because only four of his 17 barrels have left the park at home this year. Statcast drives a .304 wOBA against LHBs up to .343 (xwOBA), but at home, LHBs have just a .255 wOBA with RHBs at .215. The sinker, splitter and heater all sit between 58 and 68 PB grades with a 3.06 Bot ERA and 111 Stuff+ (105 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.3 K%, 69 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.33
DFS Notes: And we have what is most certainly the most negative run environment on the board by a long shot. The Mariners (3.68) and Rays (3.32) are the bottom of the board and both pitchers look great here. They’re my second and third rated pitchers behind Ober. With so many Seattle strikeouts, Pepiot may even be the better play than Miller, though it’s close. Miller is the second most expensive pitcher on the board, which really isn’t that expensive, with Pepiot about $1K less. The Rays have the second best pen estimators L30 days with Fairbanks on the IL, but all their active top guys resting on Sunday. The Mariners have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days with Munoz (34) and Sinder (38) both working two of the last three days and throwing more than 20 pitches on Sunday. Brandon Lowe (122 wRC+, .236 ISO v RHP) is good enough to be the only interesting bat here.
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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