Three games hit the spot for Saturday and the latter two probably seem a bit uncomfortable as sizeable dogs, where we're backing struggling pitchers, but the reasons for that are laid out below.
I've left placeholders in case anything pops on Saturday, but I now realize that I always say that, but rarely have the time to do another run through.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Rockies @ Yankees
Angels @ Blue Jays
Astros @ Orioles
Brewers @ Athletics
My Action Network blurb: 70s w/ near double digit wind out to RC - Rea 4.32 SIERA/4.80 xERA, Boyle 5.25/4.36 - OAK 105/97 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, MIL 107/107 - OAK one of worst defenses
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox
Since the start of July (nine starts), Zac Gallen has just a 6.5 K-BB%, which is a problem even with 49.7% of his contact on the ground and a 33.3 HardHit% with just nine barrels (5.8%). He’s had that October hangover all season with all non-FIP estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.85 ERA and maybe a bit fortunate that just eight of 30 barrels have become home runs. Pitch modeling is selling too. While the changeup (14%, 1.2 RV/100, 57 PB grade) and curveball (27.6%, 1.7 RV/100, 56 PB grade) are still strong, all other pitch grades are below 50 (PB), forming a 4.60 Bot ERA, while a 99 Stuff+ steps sideways for a 100 Pitching+. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .306 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA this season.
Opp wRC+: 113 (116 L7 days)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.52
Kutter Crawford has allowed just two home runs on three barrels over his last three starts, but while he’s solving that problem, he’s struck out only 11 of 60 with six walks. After a great start to the season, Crawford now has a 5.38 ERA/5.68 FIP/4.46 xFIP over 18 starts. On the season, all non-FIP estimators are within one-fifth of a run of his 4.21 ERA. Counter to what Gallen has experienced, 28 of his 43 barrels (10.5%) have left the yard. The four-seam (35.1%, 0.1 RV/100, 61 PB grade) and cutter (29.2%, 0.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) are still strong here with the difference being a 3.56 Bot ERA with a 106 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+. Crawford’s pitch modeling is still there, but batters from either side are between a .298 and .326 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 111 (20 K%, 108 Road)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.84
You’ve got two maybe average, but struggling pitchers facing off against two of the better offenses in the league in one of the most hitter friendly parks. The Boston defense and bullpen gives back what Arizona might take away. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Giants @ Mariners
Cubs @ Marlins
Reds @ Pirates
Rangers @ Guardians
Cardinals @ Twins
Phillies @ Royals
Tigers @ White Sox
Nationals @ Braves
Jake Irvin has allowed 15 runs over his last 22.2 innings with an 11.1 K-BB% and seven home runs, but also just seven barrels (9.0%) and a 38.5 HardHit%. He’s only seven innings ahead of last year, so I’m not worried about fatigue yet, while his velocity looks fine. He just ran into a buzzsaw of scheduling (Phillies, Orioles, Giants, Brewers). On the season, his 3.81 ERA is below, but within half a run of all estimators, though LHBs have given him a bit of trouble (.321 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). Every pitch Irvin throws more than five percent of the time has at least a 49 PB grade (3.83 Bot ERA) with a 94 Stuff+ working up to a 102 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%, 102 Home)
DEF: -5.5 (better since deadline)
B30: 4.60
Charlie Morton has struck out 15 of his last 45 Angels and Giants, allowing three runs over 11.1 innings after getting blown up for eight runs by the Brewers. His 15.2 K-BB% is the same as Irvin’s, though he’s allowing more barrels (10.5%), resulting in a 4.64 xERA that’s his only estimator more than one-third of a run outside his 4.29 ERA. It’s RHBs that have given Morton more problems (.359 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). Morton’s pitch modeling is more marginal than Irvin’s with a 4.37 Bot ERA and a 95 Stuff+ turning into a 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (20.1 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: -15.5
B30: 3.14
You may disagree, but I’m calling it even on the mound, giving the Braves a small offensive edge and using defense to wipe out the home field edge. The Nationals have the better base running team too. That should make this line close until bullpens get involved, but that’s not the case (+135 F5).
Mets @ Padres
My Action Network blurb: Peterson 4.53 SIERA/5.16 xERA, King 3.52/3.43 - SDP best pen estimators MLB L30 days, more than a full run better than NYM
Rays @ Dodgers
Taj Bradley has allowed 18 runs over his last 20 innings with an 8.5 K-BB%, 10.4% Barrels/BBE and 52.2 HardHit%. Five of his seven barrels leaving the park, along with a .339 BABIP and 62.1 LOB% have made things look worse than they are, but they certainly aren’t good. However, remember that he still has an 18.7 K-BB% on the season, producing a 3.55 ERA without an estimator reaching four. With a 115 Stuff+, command knocks him down to a 102 Pitching+, but the fastball (42%, -0.3 RV/100, 55 PB grade) is his only positively graded pitch, the result of which is a 4.60 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 114 (120)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 3.07
Even looking better over his last three starts, Clayton Kershaw has a 16.7 K-BB% that’s far from his standard, even if it’s above average. He averaged 90.7 mph on his fastball last season and hasn’t had a game average reaching 90.6 mph since his first start (90 on the season). Kershaw hasn’t allowed a barrel in three starts though. Tossing the FIP, even Kershaw’s 3.64 xERA is more than a run above his 2.63 ERA. He hasn’t been that good and additional estimators (contact neutral) hover around four. A peak at the pitch modeling shows that Kershaw doesn’t have a single pitch reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade through five starts (4.80 Bot ERA) with a 102 Stuff+ dropping to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (25 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.96
These pitchers have very similar estimators with Bradley having the better pitch modeling, but I’m giving Kershaw the slight edge for better recent performance. Even then, remember that the Rays are not a bad team and they hit LHP well with defensive and maybe bullpen edges. I don’t believe that latter gap is actually near a full run, but it’s something and though it feels uncomfortable backing another struggling pitcher, +160 is a bit large here.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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