As always, with a 15 game slate (14 of them on the largest daily fantasy slate of the year), there's more work to be done in the afternoon, but just a handful of pitchers and games to get to.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Reds @ Pirates
Andrew Abbott has a 19.1 K-BB% over his last four starts and is up to 10.1% on the year, but still only has a single estimator (4.04 xERA) within a run of his 3.72 ERA and that’s because he’s allowed just a 33.5 HardHit%, despite 9.3% Barrels/BBE. He also has a .260 BABIP and 82.9 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 96 (25.8 K%, 87 Home, 77 L7 days)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.63
Bailey Falter tied a season high eight strikeouts last time out, just the third time he’s exceeded five this year. Why, yes, it was against the Mariners. How did you know? All non-FIP estimators above four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 91 (85 L7 days)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.40
Update 3:30 EST: Abbott hits the IL. Looks like a bullpen game.
Astros @ Orioles
Hunter Brown has 12 quality starts in his last 15 tries with a 20.5 K-BB% (16.7% season) and just a 26.4 HardHit% (4.7% Barrels/BBE). That registers a 2.27 ERA/2.79 FIP/3.11 xFIP combo. He throws five pitches more than six percent of the time, all between 46 and 58 PitchingBot grades to go along with 103 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+ marks. Season estimators are all below, but within half a urn of his 3.82 ERA. Right-handed batters have had more success against Brown by 48 points of wOBA and 22 points of xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.7 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 4.06
Apparently Cade Povich is not a very good pitcher, but his twin brother Slim is better. That’s who supposedly showed up to strike out six of 24 Red Sox without a walk after previously walking 13 of 61 batters with seven strikeouts. Cade, Slim or whoever, still has just a 5.0 K-BB% with 10% Barrels/BBE through nine starts. Yet, because he has just a 34 HardHit%, a 4.02 xERA is Povich’s only estimator below five and a half. Just one of his six PitchingBot grades exceeds 50 with just 86 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 108 (18.5 K%, 9.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.96
DFS Notes: A 14 game slate includes just three protected environments (good luck finding out any info on them), but few weather effects. Most parks should play towards their factors tonight. Four teams reach the five run mark with the Yankees separating a bit atop the board (5.62). Just four more above four and a half runs. More than half the field (15 teams) don’t even reach four implied runs, including the pair below three.
First thing to note is that I built my lineups backwards, looking for the highest value hitters before using whatever was left over for pitching and I think it worked out okay. We start with mid-70s with a light wind across the field in Baltimore where both teams are middle of the board (4.25). A very expensive Hunter Brown ($9.4K) is not on my list, while keeping a $5.8K Cade Povich in your DK player pool in multi-entry is fine. Henderson (167 wRC+, .284 ISO v RHP, 147 wRC+ L30 days, 159 wRC+ Home) and Alvarez (184, .222, 164, 206) are my only highly rated bats in this game with no great values. Both pens have middle of the league estimators L30 days.
Update 4:10 EST: McCann in for Mountcastle.
Rockies @ Yankees
Even facing the Yankees may be a reprieve for Kyle Freeland after three straight starts at Coors, allowing eight runs over his last 8.2 innings with four walks and strikeouts each. Neither the 11.9 K-BB%, nor the 9.2% Barrels/BBE are very impressive, lending themselves to estimators ranging from a 4.27 xFIP to a 5.16 xERA that are still well below his 5.97 ERA (.348 BABIP, 62.1 LOB%), along with an 82 Stuff+ mark (97 Pitching+). Batters from either side are between a .336 and .367 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 106 (118 Home, 81 L7 days)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.71
Carlos Rodon’s strong run has come to a screeching halt. Four runs in 3.2 innings against the Tigers last time out push his ERA up to a 4.34, within half a run of all estimators with only a 3.89 SIERA below four and that’s partially because he walked five Rangers in his previous start. The 18.2 K-BB% is beyond fine, but the 31.5 GB% has led to 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Rodon still has a great fastball (50.2%, 0.6 RV/100, 61 PB grade) to combat the Rockies with (-0.42 wFA/C is bottom third of the league). Rodon carries an impressive 122 Stuff+ score, but just a 103 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 80 (27.1 K%, 78 Road, 68 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.97
Should this line climb to +250, I’d be looking towards the Rockies with both starting pitchers struggling, the Yankee bullpen being shaky recently and the offense in their lesser split against a LHP.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out towards the pole in left. We mentioned the Yankees being the top team on the board above (5.62). The Rockies are second from the bottom (2.88). Freeland is only $5.5K on DK and has shown some upside. You don’t have to eliminate him from your lineup builder. The suddenly shaky Rodon is my number two overall pitcher tonight in this tremendous spot. If he can’t find it here frankly…he is my DK SP1, costing $9.7K on either site. I’d be fine launching all COL bats from your lineup builder. Judge (233 wRC+, .433 ISO v LHP, 298 wRC+ L30 days, 239 Home) and Soto (192, .319, 201, 185) are top bats and great values, but a bit beyond my reach tonight. Torres (108, .161, 98, 78) and Stanton (81, .140, 99, 132) are fine here too with Freeland’s splits. You can run on Freeland and the Rockies have the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 3:45 EST: Chisholm back. Blackmon sits against another LHP. So many Ks in this lineup for Rodon, but we've reached an uncomfortable point that I predicted last night where I'm using Rodon for DFS, but the Rockies (at +270) have reached a value point despite being pretty far behind in every aspect against base running. Using this DK 50% boost to make this +405, though it does lower the bet threshold.
Angels @ Blue Jays
Jack Koch…Koch…Jack Koch probably won’t be staying long enough to bother learning how to spell his name. Contact inclusive estimators believe he’s earned every bit of his 6.53 ERA with batters from either side of the plate at or above a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him and a 4.76 dERA his only estimators below four through four starts. A 0.0 K-BB% and 49.3 HardHit% are much less impressive than his 99 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks with a 4.18 Bot ERA, though only a curveball (27.6%, -0.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) reaching a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 103 (20.3 K%, 130 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.10
Chris Bassitt has a 6.91 ERA/5.11 FIP/4.61 xFIP combo over his last eight starts with just one of quality in there. While his 4.34 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators and his 94 Stuff+ only works up to a 97 Pitching+, Bassitt could be okay here because the Angels really have no good left-handed hitters (.364 wOBA, .370 xwOBA against him this year with RHBs more than 70 points lower).
Opp wRC+: 88 (90 Road, 81 L7 days)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.86
DFS Notes: The Blue Jays (5.28) are second from the top with the Angels (3.72) are bottom third. I’m looking to stack against Koch with cheap Toronto bats, but he may be okay for $5K on DK purely on cost if you want to punt. Bassitt is my number five pitcher in really the exact matchup you’re looking for at this point in his career. A struggling offense with little left-handed potency. Schaneul (112 wRC+ v RHP) is not a terrible value if you need it. On the other side, guess who’s third base eligible finally? My third baseman on both FD & DK single entry tonight, Vlad (156 wRC+, .217 ISO v RHP). A potentially great value is Will Wagner (238. 150). Small sample, but small price. Horwitz (146, .201) is another nice middle infield value, who I’m using at 1B on DK tonight with Wagner at 2B. Springer (100, .176) and Varsho (87, .196) look good here too. Angels’ pen estimators are just outside the bottom third of the league L30 days.
Update 3:15 EST: And an IMMEDIATE update that Vlad is out of the lineup, which could drastically change some of my decisions.
Update 4:20 EST: No roof confirmation. Will assume open as it has been all week. TOR has six LHBs, which feels like a season high. LAA has decided the best course of action against Bassitt's massive split is to sit Moniak in favor of Pillar batting cleanup (two LHBs).
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox
It’s been six starts since Ryne Nelson increased his fastball usage to 61.9% (0.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) The result has been three quality starts with a 22.8 K-BB% (13.8% season) and just two barrels. The stench of his first 15 starts is still weighing on his 4.35 ERA that’s above, but within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators, while batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.52
Brayan Bello has three quality starts with two runs or fewer over his last four starts, but has just a 13.3 K-BB% over that span because he’s walked 11 of 98 batters. His season mark is just 13.5%, but he keeps it on the ground (50.8%), which allows him to produce a 42.2 HardHit% with just 7.9% Barrels/BBE. Bello has solid pitch modeling with all three pitches between 51 and 56 PitchingBot grades, along with 101 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks, but LHBs continue to haunt him (.363 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) and Arizona can stack a lineup nearly full of them even without Marte.
Opp wRC+: 111 (20 K%, 108 Road)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.84
Taking full season numbers into account, but weighing recent performance more heavily, Nelson (+114) appears to be the superior pitcher here in a spot where the Red Sox have no advantage on offense and quite the disadvantage defensively and in the bullpen. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to right, the Red Sox (5.02) are fourth from the top with the D’Backs (4.48) upper half of the board as well. In one of the two significantly positive run environments on the slate, I’d keep a $6.7K Nelson in my DK pool and if we’re using his full season numbers, even with the reverse split, LH Red Sox still look good here with Duran/Abreu/Devers/Casas all exceeding a 130 wRC+ and .230 ISO v RHP this year and all exceeding a 150 wRC+ L30 days. Nelson is nearly impossible to run on though and Arizona pen estimators are top third of the league L30 days with Thursday off. LHBs .363 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Bello and Carroll/McCarthy/Pederson are top OF bats for me and great values all above a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO v RHP. Kevin Newman is the only projected D’Back below a 130 wRC+ L30 days. Del Castillo (206, .370, 201) may be the real thing and I’m looking for him to prove it tonight, in my C spot. The Red Sox have the third worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:30 EST: Guillorme adds a seventh LHB for ARI. Small 0.89% gain on ARI. The F5 line moved more. Have a learn towards the over on ARI too (4.5 -105), but standing pat.
Rangers @ Guardians
Nathan Eovaldi posted his eight seven inning outing of the season (not all quality starts) against the Twins last time out, striking out six of 27 batters without a walk, but allowing four runs (three earned). It’s been a bit of a rough patch against some tough competition, shutting down the White Sox, but being roughed up by the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Orioles since the break. With an 18.3 K-BB% and average contact profile, Eovaldi is still a top half to middle of the rotation arm with a 3.76 ERA that’s within half a run of all estimators without any reaching four. His top four pitches all grade average or better via PitchingBot with a 98 Stuff+ working up to 103 Pitching+. Eovaldi is having some trouble with LHBs this season (.312 wOBA, .348 xwOBA), a flaw that Cleveland is well positioned to exploit.
Opp wRC+: 94 (19.2 K%, 108 Home, 56 L7 days)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.41
Tanner Bibee has allowed just six runs (five earned) over 27.1 innings since the break, but with just one quality start and a missed start in between. The Guardians have held him below 85 pitches in two starts since. His 20.9 K-BB% is better than Eovaldi with a similarly average contact profile, generating similar estimators when averaged out. All above, but within half a run of his 3.33 ERA. Bibee also has better pitch modeling than Eovaldi with only the fastball (52) below a 58 PB grade of his four pitches, while a 101 Stuff+ works up to a 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.3 K%, 91 Road, 59 L7 days)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.66
DFS Notes: It’s mid-70s with a light wind in from right-center in a pitcher friendly park (94 PRF). Eovaldi is my number three overall arm tonight against a struggling Cleveland offense (93 wRC+ v RHP, 49 L7 days), where he’s a good bet for at least a quality start on FD for $8.6K, making him my single entry pitcher there. Just three projected Guardians exceed an 85 wRC+ L30 days, while Kwan (130 wRC+ v RHP) would be my only bat of interest on the Cleveland side. You’re not running on Eovaldi here, though the Rangers have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days. Outside my top five, but still a quality arm tonight, though one I think is sufficiently priced for more than $9K is Tanner Bibee. It’s Seager (156, .262) only for the Rangers’ bats and even he’s outshined by at least one other SS. Guardians pen estimators are just outside the top third of the league L30 days, which surprises me too. Both offenses are bottom third run totals tonight.
Update 4:40 EST: Temp drop to low 70s. Slight lean towards u7. Eight LHBs against Eovaldi is not ideal. Noel out, Schneemann in w/ a 5 point lower K% v RHP.
Cubs @ Marlins
I don’t think I can tell you much about Kyle Hendricks that you don’t already know by now. His 6.35 ERA is more than a run and a half above all non-FIP estimators with 19 of 22 barrels (6.9%) leaving the yard. He still manages contact well (33 HardHit%), but with just a 9.6 K-BB% now, a career low, even for him. The fastball (12.8%, 31 PB grade) is his only below average PitchingBot grade with a 96 Stuff+ working up to a 101 Pitching+, while his issues with LHBs (.379 wOBA, .358) should be much of a problem here. This is an opportunity for him to be competitive.
Opp wRC+: 85 (87 Home)
DEF: 9
B30: 3.51
Max Meyer is up to a 5.58 ERA that’s above all estimators, but within half a run of the contact inclusive ones with only the dERA (3.98) dipping below four. He has a 19.6 HR/FB, but only nine of 18 barrels (14.4%) have left the yard. A 50.4 HardHit% and 12.2 K-BB% are not a great combination, even with 48.8% of his contact on the ground. He’ll either have to expand or improve his arsenal to become more productive. The fastball (39%) and slider (42.8%) both have 51 PitchingBot grades, but that’s a reliever’s arsenal unless those pitches are elite and batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 94 (61 L7 days)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.42
DFS Notes: Neutral run environment with the roof closed, as it always is it seems, the Cubs (4.11) and Marlins (3.89) are bottom half/middle of the board. Hendricks may be okay to keep in your DK player pool for $6.1K, Meyer probably is not. Happ (119 wRC+, .210 ISO v RHP), Suzuki (128, .208) and Busch (126, .198) look good here. Miami has the sixth best pen estimators L30 days and it’s nearly a month since the deadline. Edwards (140, .089), Burger (119, .216) and Sanchez (114, .193) are Miami bats of interest with a combo they can run against. The Cubs pen has top third of the league estimators L30 days, despite just DFAing their closer (Neris).
Nationals @ Braves
MacKenzie Gore has allowed five runs in three straight starts, but struck out six with one walk in two of them and in the other, none of the five were earned. He did walk six, but allowed just a pair of hard hit batted balls. His velocity his first 16 starts averaged 96 mph. Since then, 95.4 mph. Over his last 10 starts, he has just a 4.4 K-BB%, which, even with an average contact profile, unless you have Framber Valdez’s ground ball rate, is not going to get you anywhere. He threw 10.2 more innings last year, which explains why the Nationals aren’t shutting him down, but it certainly seems like fatigue. Batters from either side of the plate are up to at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him now with a 4.66 ERA matching 4.64 xERA. Only Gore’s FIP is below four now. Since the start of July, the fastball still gets a 60 PitchingBot grade, but at more than 20 points above any other pitch, Gore still has a 4.60 Bot ERA over that span with a 106 Stuff+, but 97 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (24.4 K%)
DEF: -7
B30: 4.60
Three straight double digit strikeout efforts for Chris Sale and your NL Cy Young winner (assuming good health) now has a 27.9 K-BB% with a 29.3 HardHit%. There’s a possibility his K-BB could surpass his hard hit rate. His 2.66 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. All PitchingBot grades are 55 or better, but mere 100 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks continue to surprise.
Opp wRC+: 84 (19.8 K%, 6.6 HR/FB, 92 Road)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.14
I guess we’re going to have to watch this one too because it’s getting up there. Like the Millon Dollar Man (now known as middle class) used to say, “Everybody’s got a price….hahahahaha.”
DFS Notes: Near 80 with a near double digit wind in from left is standard Atlanta weather. As you might guess, the Nationals (2.79) are the bottom team on the board with the Braves (4.71) sixth from the top. Sale is the top pitcher on the board and maybe the better value on FD, where he’s just $400 more. I chose not to pay up for him, but strongly considered it. You can probably feel comfortable scrubbing Nationals from your pool. Considering Gore’s struggles for a couple of months now, you have to consider Atlanta exposure. Soler (167 wRC+, .250 ISO v LHP), Ozuna (163, .205), Laureano (126, .246) and Olson (123, .233) grade best with all projected but Urshela and Harris below a 110 wRC+ L30 days. Gore/Ruiz can be run on with Washington pen estimators fifth worst L30 days.
Update 5 EST: Abrams out, Vargas in. Actually lowers strikeouts. Not a lot in this lineup. At +215, I'm seeing slight value in the Nats, but just can't play Gore in his current state against Sale. Harris bats leadoff. Soler in the two hole. Laureano bats fifth.
Cardinals @ Twins
Over 13 starts, Andre Pallante has a perfectly credible 3.75 ERA/3.75 FIP/3.80 xFIP combo with a 9.8 K-BB%, but 61.5 GB% with just six barrels (35.6 HardHit%). The amazing thing is he’s a four-seam guy (48.4%, 0.7 RV/100, 50 PB grade) with a crappy sinker (20%, -0.4 RV/100, 33 PB grade) and his other two secondaries somewhere in between. Pallante has a reverse split (RHBs .324 wOBA, .312 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 113 (127 Home)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.07
David Festa has posted an impressive 21.3 K-BB% over his first 32.2 innings, though he has allowed 10 barrels (10.9%) with seven of them leaving the park. Even then, his 4.25 xERA (worst non-FIP estimators) is still more than two-thirds of a run below his 4.96 ERA with 12 of his 18 runs coming in his first 10 innings. All three PitchingBot grades between 52 and 58 with a 102 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102 (92 Road, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.55
DFS Notes; Mid-70s with a light wind across the field, the Cardinals (3.91) are middle of the board with the Twins (4.59) upper third. Pallante has little strikeout upside and the Twins are sheer terror at home. He keeps the ball on the ground more often (75.9%) against LHBs though, so Lewis (146 wRC+, .342 ISO v RHP) might be your best MIN hope, but Wallner (183, .340) is too cheap to be ignored. The latter has a 202 wRC+ at home and 164 wRC+ L30 days. Cardinals pen estimators L30 days are middling, but Helsley (21), Kittredge (44) and Romero (44) have each worked two straight days. I think Festa is an arm with some upside, but potentially workload issues. I strongly debated him not much above $7K on BOTH sites and have no interest in St Louis bats with their road struggles and top third of the league pen estimators behind Festa.
Update 5:10 EST: Carpenter (30 K% v RHP) gives STL fifth LHBs. Festa has shown a reverse split so far.
Phillies @ Royals
Taijuan Walker hasn’t completed five innings in any of his last three starts and has allowed at least three runs in all of them. With a 9.0 K-BB%, but 14.3% Barrels/BBE and a 49.2 HardHit%, Walker’s best estimator is a 4.88 SIERA with batters from either side above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. None of his six pitches (all thrown at least 10% of the time) reach a 50 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 102 (18.5 K%, 107 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.35
Four straight quality starts with a total six runs over 26 innings for Michael Wacha, who’s 13.4 K-BB% is a five year low, but exactly his career rate and perfectly league average. Even with a 32.3 HardHit%, non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.14 xFIP to a 4.34 dERA are well above his 3.33 ERA, but let’s mention that 3.86 FIP in a power suppressing park, which he’ll be pitching in tonight. What separates average pitchers like Wacha and Tyler Anderson is their elite changeups (31.6%, 1.9 RV/100, 79 PB grade), resulting in a 3.46 Bot ERA with the fastball (56) the only one of his other six pitches to reach a 50 PB grade. Wacha’s 91 Stuff+ works up to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.12
Wacha might be at least close to an average pitcher, even if the ERA is a fluke. He’s far ahead of Walker, but what probably surprises people is that marginal Philadelphia offense. There’s absolutely nowhere that you can say the Phillies have an advantage over the Royals (-132) here. If you want narrative, the Phillies are coming off a tough series with the Braves.
DFS Notes: Low to mid-80s with a near double digit wind blowing in from near the right field pole, Kansas City is on par with Fenway as a top run environment on this board. The Phillies (4.44) are middle of the board with the Royals (5.06) third from the top. I have no interest in either pitcher in this spot, but Walker may be the worst value on the board. I’m recommending heavy exposure to home team bats with Witt (181 wRC+, .278 ISO v RHP) the guy I’m jamming in tonight and Massey (100, .191) a great top of the order second base value and overall bat. Pasquantino (116, .192), Perez (111, .188) and Melendez (107, .247) work well here too. Isbel is the only projected Royal below a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Witt has a 216 wRC+ at home that’s nearly 100 points above anyone else in the projected lineup. The Phillies have bottom third pen estimators L30 days. Schwarber (113, .238) is the only Philly bat I’d consider in a high priced lineup. He has a 178 wRC+ L30 days with five projected Phillies below 80 over that span, including Harper (59). Wacha is really tough to run on. The Royals have bottom half of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:25 EST: Added 1/2 unit on KCR o4.5 (-125). Just a 1.08% gain on moneyline.
Tigers @ White Sox
Keider Montero struck out five of 19 Yankees, allowing just two hits and then A.J. Hinch got him the hell out of there because even he wasn’t buying it. He walked four Giants, striking out two in his previous start. With just a 12.1 K-BB% and average contact profile through 59.2 innings, Montero’s 5.28 ERA is in line with a 5.24 FIP with 12 of 13 barrels leaving the park, yet no other estimators reach five, dropping only as low as a 4.25 xFIP. Right-handed batters exceed .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs above .320 too. The changeup (10.1%, 33 PB grade) is his only below average pitch (PitchingBot) with Stuff+ (96) a bit lower on him.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%, 9.2 HR/FB, 77 Home, 54 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.16
Chris Flexen has a 6.3 K-BB%. His best estimator is a 4.96 xERA with batters from either side above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. None of his five pitches exceed a 48 PitchingBot grade, and his 54 Stuff+ breaks the model.
Opp wRC+: 91 (24.1 K%, 85 Road, 78 L7 days)
DEF: -20
B30: 5.21
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a light wind in from near the right field pole, the Tigers (4.69) are upper half of the board with the White Sox (3.81) lower half. Considering Gavin Sheets (102) has the top wRC+ in the projected Chicago LU, I’m going Montero for my DK SP2 ($6.4K). I could pay up for Festa, but would have to move down from Rodon to Eovaldi maybe. Regardless, I’m punting bats from that side, but do like Meadows (110 wRC+, .207 ISO), Carpenter (171, .344) and Greene (148, .223) against Flexen and the worst pen in the league, even if you can’t run against him.
Mets @ Padres
Paul Blackburn has had one poor start (mostly the first inning against his old team) since joining the Mets with seven of his 11 runs allowed coming in that outing. They’ve increased his cutter usage (-0.8 RV/100) to 30.1% (22.7% season) because it’s his best graded pitch (64 PB) by a mile. What a novel concept. Blackburn has posted a 14.1 K-BB% with the Mets, a slight improvement on his 11.5% mark prior to the trade. He’s also allowed just three barrels with a 23.8 HardHit%. I’ll refrain from quoting any full season or career numbers because he may be a different pitcher now. The Mets have freed Paul Blackburn, though a tough matchup against the Padres may send him back into captivity.
Opp wRC+: 115 (17.7 K%, 113 Home, 115 L7 days (incl. Thu)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.79
Joe Musgrove’s velocity ticked up at Coors (season high 93.8 mph), while he struck out six of 17 batters. He’s thrown 63 and 73 pitches in his two starts back and is probably set for less than 90 again tonight. His season has been a disaster of fits and starts with contact inclusive estimators exceeding his 4.97 ERA (11.2% Barrels/BBE), but contact neutral ones more than half a run below (13.3 K-BB%, .331 BABIP). Batters from either side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but perhaps the velocity increase will stick and he’ll be back to his old ways. Likely ticketed for around 85 pitches tonight, there’s not much we can do, but wait and see.
Opp wRC+: 110 (112 Road, 137 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 2.80
DFS Notes: We drop below 70 on the west coast with a near 10 mph in from near the left field pole. The Padres (3.96) are middle of the board with the Mets (3.54) sixth from the bottom. I’d like to avoid that entire Musgrove situation. Maybe some Mets exposure in case he blows up again, but San Diego has the best pen estimators in the game L30 days with all their top guys resting the last two days. At more than $8K in this spot, Blackburn is still probably a poor value. Every projected San Diego bat except for Wade exceeds a 100 wRC+ v RHP with only Merrill and Profar above 126. With Blackburn holding RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA on the season, I’m not really attracted to San Diego bats in this spot either, unless Merrill is bumped to the top of the order. The Mets have middle of the league pen estimators L30 days and Diaz got a night off on Thursday with a ninth inning outburst by the Mets.
Update 6:45 EST: Marte and Iglesias in for Nimmo & Winker as Mets lean into reverse split.
Brewers @ Athletics
Seven starts for the Brewers and a 12.3 K-BB% with a 4.10 ERA/4.96 FIP/4.51 xFIP combo. The only one of those marks that hasn’t gotten worse since the trade is Aaron Civale’s ERA, so many people probably assume the Brewers “fixed” him. That’s not the case. The only thing they’ve done is increase his strand rate (77.7%). A 4.78 ERA matches a 4.77 FIP on the season with additional estimators dropping as low as 4.07 xERA with solid contact management (7.4% Barrels/BBE, 38.9 HardHit%).
Opp wRC+: 97 (25.2 K%, 63 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 15.5
B30: 3.35
Exactly a month ago Saturday, the Astros clobbeed J.P. Sears for eight runs. Since then, he’s completed at least seven inning in all four starts with a total of five runs with a 22 K-BB% (12.5% season). His two best starts (nine strikeouts in each) came against his Bay Area rivals, a team that pounds LHP. More fastballs (46.4%) and fewer sliders/sweepers (22.3%) appear to be the answer. The former with an 8.8 RV/100 and the latter a -1.8 RV/100 over that span seems to make sense. On the season, a 4.15 ERA matches a 4.13 xERA (9.2% Barrels/BBE) with all additional estimators a bit higher, but is this the same guy? He’s allowed just two barrels with a 29.9 HardHit% over these four starts.
Opp wRC+: 102 (80 L7 days)
DEF: -23
B30: 3.38
DFS Notes: Low 60s with a light wind out to right, the Brewers (3.89) are middle of the board with the A’s (3.61) bottom quarter. CIvale is fine in the $7K range…probably. There’s upside in the A’s lineup for him even if they do succeed at home (106 wRC+). Sears costs more than $8K in a tough matchup. He’s not going to go seven innings every start, but he’s looked good recently. I like Rooker (154 wRC+, .245 ISO v RHP, 138 wRC+ L30 days, 158 wRC+ Home) and Chourio (86, .063, 160, 110) here and not much else. Both teams have top five pen estimators L30 days. The top four ranked guys in the Oakland pen by Roster Resource all threw more than 10 pitches last night, but none on back to back days.
Giants @ Mariners
With double digit walk (12.4%) and barrel (10.5%) rates, Hayden Birdsong’s 27.5 K% is barely keeping his head above water. His last three starts have been especially problematic with 13 runs over 11 innings and a 7.7 K-BB%, including six barrels and a 50 HardHit%. Odd for a San Francisco pitcher to have eight of his 11 barrels leave the yard, but that’s why a 4.61 xERA is nearly half a run below his 5.01 ERA with additional non-FIP estimators barely above four. Pitch modeling believes Birdsong has the goods (109 Stuff+), including a strong changeup (16.6%, -2.5 RV/100, 61 PB grade) he may need to throw more to get out of that small sample negative run value, but considering the command, it’s his only PitchingBot grade above 42 with a 97 Pitching+. Batters from the right-hand side exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs more than 75 points lower.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28 K%, 81 L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.48
Luis Castillo has struck out 24 of his last 74 batters with just five walks. The Pirates did tag him for four runs last time out, but he has quality starts against the Mets and Pirates prior to that. The velocity has ticked up a half mph over the last five (96.2 mph). With a 17.6 K-BB% and average contact profile on the season, Castillo’s 3.51 ERA is below, but within half a run of all estimators, but should he continue to pitch like he has most recently, it’s the estimators that may be dropping instead of the ERA rising. With PitchingBot grades ranging from 49 to 56 to go along with a 101 Stuff+ mark and 103 Pitching+, Castillo has solid pitch modeling, even if it’s still a drop off from recent seasons.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.34
I’m clearly giving the Mariners the starting pitching advantage here, but that’s about it. The Giants are better defensively with a bullpen advantage that nearly makes up the starting pitching gap. Also, not shown (and maybe I should start), the Giants also have a significant base running edge based on projected lineups. I barely have the Mariners favored and believe the Giants +136 to have significant value unless Castillo were to pitch very deep into the game.
DFS Notes: The roof open 75% of the time, the run factor increases from 81 to 83 with a bigger boost to right-handed power, the Mariners (3.78) are bottom half of the board with the Giants (3.22) third from the bottom. At $2K from $10K, Castillo appears too expensive for what he’s done this year, but his recent uptick makes the price less egregious. I have him as my fourth best overall arm tonight between Eovaldi and Bassitt. Birdsong is less than $7K on DK in a high upside spot. I have no interest in bats in this environment.
Update 6:50 EST: Canzone in for Robles. A 0.93% gain on SF.
Rays @ Dodgers
May 17th was the last time Tyler Alexander actually started a game, so while he’s now listed on MLB.com, don’t be surprised if he gets an opener. Since returning post-break, Alexander has pitched well with five runs allowed over 20 innings (2.25 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.80 xFIP) with an 18.3 K-BB%. He’s allowed just 20 hard hit batted balls, but seven of them have been barrels. Alexander is up a mph (90.4) over these five outings with an increase in SwStr (9.9%). His 5.17 ERA on the season matches a 5.13 xERA, but with just a 4.04 SIERA.
Opp wRC+: 117 (19.4 K%, 120 Home, 117 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.07
Mentioned below, Bobby Miller’s 5.8 K-BB%. One of each in his return start. Remember he struck out 11 Cardinals in his first start of the season? He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out since and has just a 1.0 K-BB% in five AAA starts. Add in 11.1% Barrels/BBE and a 45.4 HardHIt% with a 47.6 Z-O-Swing% and a 4.50 dERA is his best estimator and one just two below five. Batters from either side exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs above .400. A 113 Stuff+ drops to a 96 Pitching+ and the curveball (15.8%) is his only PitchingBot grade reaching 50, resulting in a 4.93 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.2 K%, 82 L7 days)
DEF: -6
B30: 3.96
Playing against Bobby Miller’s 5.8 K-BB% while I can get it at +158 without Tampa Bay even announcing a starter (probably a Tyler Alexander bulk situation). Will follow up with an explanation on Friday afternoon, but suffice to say the Dodgers have a large offensive edge, though that’s probably their only one here.
DFS Notes: Below 70 degrees with a 10 mph wind out to center, the Rays (3.53) are fifth from the bottom (double check to make sure Miller is still listed) with the Dodgers (4.97) fifth from the top. Alexander (with the threat of an opener) can easily be discarded in a tough spot and they’d have to pay me to take Miller at this point. Diaz (101 wRC+, .105 ISO v RHP and the Lowes (Brandon 122, .239, Josh 103, .174) stick out here. The Dodgers have middling pen estimators L30 days, but are well rested if Miller gets into early trouble. Betts, Smith, Ohtani and Teoscar all exceed a 120 wRC+ v LHP with Ohtani the only one below 150 and a .150 ISO v LHP with Mookie the only one below .200. Alexander can be run on, but the Rays have the second best pen estimators L30 days. Fairbanks just hit the IL, but there are probably two heads ready to replace the chopped off one.
Update 7:05 EST: No Rays LU yet, but people like Miller. 0.88% loss on TB.
Top Overall Pitchers;
1 - Chris Sale
2 - Carlos Rodon
3 - Nathan Eovalid
4 - Luis Castillo
5 - Chris Bassitt
Top Overall Bats
1 - Aaron Judge
2 - Bobby Witt
3 - Juan Soto
4 - Top half of the order Arizona LHBs
5 - Vlad Jr.
Top Bat Values
DK - Will Wagner, Ramon Laureano (depends on LU spot), Parker Meadows
FD - LH Diamondbacks around $3K, Jorge Soler (if active), Wagner, Laureano
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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