Thursday 8/22 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Published on 21 August 2024 at 23:28

Pitching notes below for all except one game where we don't know who's pitching. If they update in a timely manner, we'll get that one in and daily fantasy notes too, providing an early afternoon appointment doesn't run long. 

I want to thank everyone who's hit the tip jar this month, whom I haven't thanked personally yet. Paypal notifications seem to non-existent and the money's not piling in so fast that I check it all that often. I'm glad the information has been helpful and tips are appreciated. 

All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.

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Rockies @ Nationals

Cal Quantrill is on a 10 start run where he’s posting a 6.70 ERA/6.10 FIP/4.77 xFIP combo and he’s only started four of those games at Coors. Quantrill’s 9.3 K-BB% over this stretch increases his season rate to 8.5%, while he’s allowed 7.6% Barrels/BBE, but with a 44.3 HardHit%. On the season, his 4.59 ERA is below, but within half a run of all estimators, while batters from either side of the plate reside between a .332 and .352 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Quantrill has just two pitch grades below 50 (PitchingBot). Unfortunately, they’re pitches he throws 73% of the time. A 92 Stuff+ only increases to a 95 Pitching+ with a 4.94 Bot ERA that fits right in with his result based estimators.

Opp wRC+: 97 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 6
B30: 4.71

Patrick Corbin has one good pitch, a 59 grade cutter (PB), which he refuses to use (17.1%). He’s also used it just 17% of the time over his last four starts, in which he’s been bombed for 21 runs in just 17.1 innings. He has an xERA (5.88) a run higher than Quantrill (47.8 HardHit%) but contact neutral estimators slightly lower (4.35 xFIP – 4.74 dERA). His 76 Stuff+ works up to a 94 Pitching+ with a surprising 4.23 Bot ERA, though RHBs have a .381 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him. If Corbin were to consider increasing his cutter usage, this would be the right spot (Rockies -0.45 wFC/C is bottom third of the league).

Opp wRC+: 82 (27.2 K%, 79 Road & L7 days)
DEF: -5.5 (better defense on field since trade deadline)
B30: 4.60

God help me if I had to actually root for one of these pitchers, but I can root for offense here, particularly Washington’s near average one against RHP and at home (95). You figure they’d be near four and a half runs in a home game against average pitching, but they’ll be facing something much worse. I have them projected to get to five, providing decent weather and we’re getting 4.5 at +105. I’d consider dropping below a full unit if it gets worse than even money. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.

Update 12:05 EST: Weather somewhat neutral (80 w near double digit wind in from near left-field pole). No Blackmon or McMahon. WAS total goes from +105 to -105. 

Guardians @ Yankees

I’m not afraid to admit that through nine starts, I don’t have Gavin Williams figured out. The fastball is his thing (54.3%) and it’s awful by run value (-0.9 RV/100), but very good via PitchingBot grade (61). There’s only one point of difference in the wOBA (.399) and xwOBA (.398) against it with a 21.8 Whiff%. He’s struck out more than five in just three starts and they were all in a row against the Orioles and Tigers (2x), starting five starts back (25 Ks, 66 BF). Outside of those three starts (12.8 SwStr%), he’s only been above 10.1% once. Four of his nine barrels came in those three starts too with a 52.8 HardHit%, nearly 10 points above his season average. All estimators believe he’s more than half a run better than his 5.02 ERA, contact neutral ones by more than a run. The cutter (7.8%, 1.1 RV/100, 41 PB grade) has been above 19% usage in each of his last two starts. He threw it a quarter of the time in his first start of the season, but then just two percent of the time until after that rough start against the Orioles, where he struck out eight, but allowed six runs.

Opp wRC+: 123 (10.3 K-BB%, 16.1 HR/FB, 117 Home)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.66

Maybe we’re in the early stages of Gerrit Cole’s decline, but six of the 11 runs he’s allowed over his last six starts came against the Mets and he’s struck out 18 of the 46 Tigers and Rangers he’s faced over his last two starts. He’s nearly equally used a cutter, slider and curveball as secondaries behind his fastball (46.4%, 0.4 RV/100, 54 PB grade) and the latter is easily the impressive (17.1%, 2.8 RV/100, 67 PB grade). The velocity (96) is down more than half a mph from last year and nearly two full mph from 2022, which (hot take) was a more dominant season that his Cy Young one in 2023. His pitch modeling has gone in the wrong direction (3.06 – 3.50 – 3.72 Bot ERAs), while the stuff has declined (139 – 121 – 113 Stuff+/110 – 109 – 106 Pitching+). The FIP (4.20) and xERA (4.22) are in line with the 4.15 ERA, but that includes some rough work early on, while contact neutral estimators remain in the upper-mid threes. I still believe he’s better than that, but the upside is more limited.

Opp wRC+: 94 (19.2 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.97

Brewers @ Cardinals

This is more than a slump. Freddy Peralta is in the midst of a 13 game stretch with just a 14.2 K-BB% that is behind a 4.24 ERA/4.90 FIP/4.41 xFIP combo. You can say 13 of his 16 barrels have been home runs, but everything is above four. Left-handed batters have a .343 wOBA against him over this span. Still sporting a 19.3 K-BB% and 36.3 HardHit% on the season, along with 9.1% Barrels/BBE, non-FIP estimators remain below four (3.63 SIERA – 3.85 xERA). Oddly, the changeup (17.5) has the only positive run value (1.2 RV/100), but is the worst graded of his pitchers (42 PB).

Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 15
B30: 3.35

Miles Mikolas has allowed 17 runs over his last 19.2 innings, despite an increase in K-BB (14.3%) and improved contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 38.9 HardHit%). The culprits are a .400 BABIP and 53 LOB%. On the season, Mikolas has a 5.41 ERA without an estimator reaching four and a half (63.4 LOB%), though all exceed four. A 7.7 SwStr% and 91.1 Z-Contact% are not helping matters. Left-handed batters exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, though not necessarily much of a problem against a Milwaukee lineup without Yelich. Of course, Mikolas has never made his money missing bats. It’s been contact management with great command and at least the latter part of that still remains part of his repertoire. A 3.8 BB% helps an 88 Stuff+ become a 103 Pitching+. On an even more positive note, Mikolas doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade below 50 (3.61 Bot ERA).

Opp wRC+: 108 (107 Road)
DEF: -2.5 (defense fielded since the break has declined)
B30: 4.07

Update 12:20 EST: Carpenter in for Goldschmidt. Five LHBs against Peralta's reverse split. Three LHBs against Mikolas's standard split. 

Tigers @ Cubs

I’m confident enough in Detroit’s recent pattern to believe we’re going to see Brant Hurter for most of the game on Thursday and he’s looked quite proficient against some good offenses (Yankees, Giants, Royals) over his first 14 innings, striking out 13 of 54 batters with a single walk. He’s kept 61.5% of his contact on the ground with just two barrels and a 37.5% HardHit%. Hurter’s worst estimator is a 3.54 dERA, exceeding 60 PitchingBot grades on his sweeper (27.9%) and sinker (51.1%), though he garners just an 89 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 98 (65 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.16

Striking out 11 of 35 batters, Justin Steele hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last eight innings and has allowed more than two runs in just two of his last eight starts. With a 17.3 K-BB% and elite contact profile (4.6% Barrels/BBE, 33.1 HardHit%), Steele is looking at a 2.89 xERA below his 3.10 ERA with other estimators above that, as high as a 3.81 SIERA. He does have eight unearned runs with a .266 BABAIP, but also just a 70.9 LOB%. Despite a 0 RV/100, Steele’s fastball (59.8%) has a 64 PB grade. This is a strong matchup for him against the fourth worst offense against fastballs (-0.47 wFA/C).

Opp wRC+: 89 (8.3 HR/FB, 85 Road, 57 L7 days)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.51

The Tigers have some borderline value above +175, but in order to pull the trigger, I’d have be absolutely certain Hurter was playing an early role with an intent of putting him through the lineup at least twice.

Update 12:30 EST: Yup, I had the pattern down so the Tigers switched it up, swapping Hurter & Maeda's days. Hurter last night, Maeda today. Weather not much of a factor at Wrigley today. Winds less than 10 mph, mid-70s. 

Rays @ Athletics

It took a couple of starts and the velocity still hasn’t come back, though that was never his thing anyway, but Jeffrey Springs has found whatever was lost and dominated two great lineups over his last two starts. He’s struck out 15 of 41 Diamondbacks and Orioles with a 17.6 SwStr%. Just a single barrel allowed in those two starts. The changeup (33.5%) has the worst run value (-2.3 RV/100) and best PitchingBot grade (58) of his offerings by a mile through four starts, but I can’t see how a pitch with a 47.5 Whiff% has done that poorly, but maybe it’s the .435 wOBA compared to the .267 xwOBA.

Opp wRC+: 110 (106 Home)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.07

Osvaldo Bido has allowed three runs (two earned) over his last 18 innings. That’s three quality starts and a 17.6 K-BB% over his last five starts with just a 28.8 HardHit%. He’s actually gained some velocity moving from the pen to the rotation. Who does that? Bido has a 2.81 xERA on the season. In a starting role (or at least the last five: he began the season with a short start too), Bido has a 104 Stuff+, but just a 95 Pitching+. Far less optimistic is a 4.91 Bot ERA that includes a 33 grade fastball (45%). Small sample size and conflicting numbers, but he has shut down some pretty impressive offenses like the Dodgers and Astros.

Opp wRC+: 92 (24 K%, 71 L7 days)
DEF: -23.5
B30: 3.38

Update 1:45 EST: That Tampa Bay lineup is something. I was considering Oakland last night and considering their offensive advantage I show value either on full game or F5, but will take the higher F5 price (+110). 

Reds @ Pirates

Nick Lodolo has allowed 21 runs over his last 19.1 innings with a 12.2 K-BB% and seven barrels (11.5%). That includes six innings of two run ball against…the Marlins. Seven of his 19 strikeouts over this span came in that start as well. He’s down to an 8.5 SwStr% over this span and just, well, yuck. Something’s off here. The velocity is fine, but he’s not commanding his pitches well. His 4.55 season ERA matches his estimators over the last month, but only his dERA (4.09) exceeds four on the season. Lodolo also doesn’t have a PitchingBot grade below 54 on the season (3.57 Bot ERA), though his 106 Stuff+ drops to a 97 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 97 (25.6 K%, 87 Home, 78 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 3.63

With a 13.4 K-BB% and 10 runs (nine earned) over his last 23.1 innings, I guess you could say that Paul Skenes is “struggling” too. His velocity is down nearly a mph over this stretch too and the Pirates have already mentioned that he has some shorter starts ahead of him. His rookie season has been nothing short of brilliant. A 25.5 K-BB% and 36.8 HardHit% backs estimators ranging from a 2.72 xERA to a 2.90 FIP that are a bit above his 2.30 ERA (86 LOB%). Pitch modeling is interesting. Only the slider (15.5%, 0.9 RV/100, 65 PB grade) exceeds a 56 PitchingBot grade with a 3.52 Bot ERA that seems to be in line with 105 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ marks, which don’t befit a phenom.

Opp wRC+: 90 (25 K%, 92 Road)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.40

DFS Notes: A five game slate that includes one protected environment (good luck finding out if it’s open) with neutral weather everywhere includes several prominent pitchers in tough spots. The result is a single offense exceeds four and a half runs, topping the slate by nearly half a run with half the board failing to exceed four.

I’m pressed for time this afternoon, but did throw in a quick DK lineup, so we’ll only be covering that site, but hopefully you’ll get enough info to be handy on FD as well. We finally get Paul Skenes on the main slate and in a great matchup! But the Pirates said they were cutting down on his workload and shortening outings. Play the most expensive pitcher on the board, who has slowed down lately, at your own risk. He could strike out 10 over five shutout innings and the Pirates didn’t necessarily say they were shortening his outing today. I don’t know what to do with him, but I know to avoid Cincinnati bats at the second lowest run total on the board (3.46). The Pirates do have a bottom third of the league pen L30 days with Bednar (25) and Chapman (19) going back to back, but not too laboriously. The Pirates (4.04) are middle of the board. With Lodolo struggling and LHBs hitting for a .314 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against him, while the Pirates are in their better split, he’s fairly risk heavy for $8K or more. Joey Bart (215 wRC+, .293 ISO v LHP, 161 wRC+ L30 days) isn’t THAT good, but he’s my DK catcher tonight. Oneil Cruz (76, .195, 146) is the only other projected Pirate reaching a 100 wRC+ L30 days. Bart (140) and Cruz (150) are also the best home bats in this projected linupe. Lodolo and Stephenson can be run on. The Reds have upper half of the league pen estimators L30 days.

Update 4:30 EST: Amed Rosario and Dom Smith are back together...in the Reds lineup? No Stephenson either. Rosario batting fifth against Skenes is a decision. 

Angels @ Blue Jays

No idea who’s pitching this game for either side. I’m going with Griffin Canning and Jake Bloss, as Roster Resource suggests, for placeholders in the meanwhile. I’ve also heard the possibility of Ryan Yarbrough and I bet many of you don’t even know which team he pitches for now. I’ll try to update when we know more.

This now looks like Griffin Canning, still not confirmed by MLB.com. His best estimator is a 4.84 xFIP with LHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him and RHBs hitting .320 too. His 86 Stuff+ works up to a 97 Pitching+ with a 5.12 Bot ERA.

Opp wRC+: 103 (20.3 K%, 130 L7 days) (incl. Wed)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.10

This is going to be Ryan Burr to open and then potentially Ryan Yarbrough, who’s 3.95 ERA comes with just one estimator below five (4.51 xERA). He hasn’t exceeded nine batters or two innings since the break, but he’s probably the best place holder I have.

Opp wRC+: 101 (21 K%)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.86

DFS Notes: I guess you could punt SP2 for $5K with Canning, but I’d much prefer to stack this game…from both sides. Starting with the Angels, Ward (161 wRC+, 168 ISO v LHP) and Neto (208, .247) should top the lineup and hit well enough against RHP too, while Rendon (95 wRC w/o an extra base hit) might be my punt at third base, which is a really tough position tonight. With RHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Yarbrough and the Angels having the second worst bullpen estimators L30 days, they should get plenty of shots at hittable pitching. It’s a shame Vlad (157, .218) isn’t 3B eligible. He, Springer (102, .177), Varsho (86, .195) and Horwitz (150, .205) populate my DK single entry and now you have my entire offense in just two games. Angels’ pen estimators are just outside the bottom third of the league L30 days. The Blue Jays top the board (4.91) with the Angels four (4.09). 

Update 5:05 EST: No roof info yet. Both teams going with an opener. Didn't Ryan Burr play Perry Mason? O'Hoppe on the bench. 

Astros @ Orioles

Before his last start…

“SpAghetti without meatballs, just strikeouts (25 of his last 45 batters with a 20.7 SwStr%). There was a great article on Fangraphs this week about how Spencer Arrighetti’s thinks about pitching and how it has evolved since his call up. Now up to a 16.9 K-BB% with an average contact profile, all estimators are more than three-quarters of a run below his 5.14 ERA (.331 BABIP). At least six innings in five straight with four quality starts, all of Arrighetti’s PitchingBot grades now exceed 50, but with just 92 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ scores.”

He proceeded to allow four runs over 5.2 innings to the White Sox with both barrels leaving the yard (six barrels last two starts now), while striking out just five of 25 batters. I’m being a little harsh when considering his 14.0 SwStr% and 33 HardHit% in that start. Arrighetti’s worst estimators (4.31 FIP) is still nearly a run below his ERA (5.20).

Opp wRC+: 116 (20.7 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.06

And before his last start…

“I think we just have to accept the strikeout rate is not returning this year. It’s at 22.9% and he’s only struck out more than seven twice, more than six four times. That said, he still has a 5.8 BB% and 30.6% hard contact rate with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. A 3.11 xERA is less than half a run above his 2.70 ERA. However, contact neutral estimators are above three and half with the truth probably somewhere around three and a half. Pitch modeling is still a believer. Burnes throws four pitches more than 10% of the time and all exceed a 50 PitchingBot grade with it’s belief that the cutter is still elite (43.5%, 1.8 RV/100, 64 PB grade) to go along with 116 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks. If it is Criswell, this will be the second straight game in this series featuring a pair of RHPs with reverse splits.”

The good news is that Burns struck out seven again and has just a 1.78 K/SwStr on the year. The bad news? With three barrels and a 53.3 HardHit%, the Red Sox tagged him for eight runs. He still has a 3.10 ERA below all his estimators, but only more than half a run below a 3.73 SIERA.

Opp wRC+: 111 (19.5 K%, 102 Road)
DEF: 0.5
B30: 3.96

DFS Notes: The Orioles are the number two team on the board (4.41) with the Astros are third from the bottom (3.59). I am rostering a pitcher from this game, but it’s not Burnes, who appears to now have limited upside in a tough spot. The Orioles might be tougher, but strike out slightly more and SpAghetti is cheaper ($7.5K on DK) and strikes out more batters. That said, batters from either side are within five points of a .340 wOBA against him, but Statcast drops that down to within a point of a .310 xwOBA. I’d still certainly consider Cowser (125 wRC+, .216 ISO), Henderson (167, .284) and O’Hearn (131, .180) if I had gone with my second SP2 choice below. Mountcastle and Rustchman are the only projected O’s below a 118 wRC+ L30 days. The Astros have middling pen estimators L30 days. Burnes has managed contact so well that I’m uninterested in opposing him with anyone other than Alvarez (152, .252) and perhaps Bregman (128, .189) with the scarcity at third and Burnes’ reverse split (RHBs .287 wOBA ,.293 xwOBA). Both, along with Diaz, exceed a 165 wRC+ L30 days. No other projected Astro exceeds 115. The Orioles have middling pen estimators L30 days, but not only has Dominguez (37) thrown three of the last four, he’s allowed walk off homers in two of the last three games. Cano (49) has worked three of five, but not Wednesday. Perez (46) has worked two in a row and three of five. They don’t even want to give Kimbrel the ball anymore. He was hit hard in just 13 pitches Wednesday.

Update 5:15 EST: Caratini and Ben Gamel are somehow the five and six hitters for the Astros tonight. No Pena or Singleton. 

Phillies @ Braves

Cristopher Sanchez is coming off a complete game two hitter, the only smudge a solo home run, also the only barrel the Nationals managed off of him, striking out just four times, but without walking and 60% of their contact on the ground. That’s what Sanchez does. Striking out barely enough (18.6%) with excellent control (5.9 BB%) and an elite contact profile (58.1 GB%, 5% Barrels/BBE, 33.6 HardHit%). He’s been even a bit luckier than that with just five of his 22 barrels leaving the yard, but non-FIP estimators are all within a quarter run of his 3.46 ERA. PitchingBot sinker and changeup grades are 57 and 61 respectively, while a 94 Stuff+ works all the way up to a 105 Pitching+. Sanchez has bookended his last nine starts with complete games, but hasn’t exceeded six innings in between.

Opp wRC+: 111 (24.4 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.35

I’m going to cheat once more, but update what I wrote before his last start…

I questioned whether Spencer Schwellenbach might be over-matched with an aggressive promotion after just 13 innings at the AA level, but it’s actually major league hitters that have been over-matched by him. SS has struck out 44 of his last 122 batters with just four walks. He now has a 23 K-BB% with just 4.9% Barrels/BBE. His 4.04 ERA comes without an estimator reaching three and a half. While LHBs have had some success against him (.317 wOBA, .309 xwOBA), RHBs have been held to a .269 wOBA and .249 xwOBA. All PItchingBot grades are 57 or higher with a 100 Stuff+ working up to a 107 Pitching+. Unfortunately, the Phillies don’t have any single pitch weaknesses as a team.

Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.14

DFS Notes: With both teams middle of the board and tied for fourth lowest at four implied runs, I’m inclined to side with pitching here. Sanchez was my other consideration for SP2 at just $7K, but I went upside over floor and workload. RHBs have had some success against him (.298 wOBA, but .314 xwOBA). Soler (167 wRC+, .250 ISO v LHP), Laureano (127, .258) and Ozuna (167, .213) would all be of interest if the first two are in the top two or three spots. All projected RHBs exceed a 110 wRC+ L30 days except Urshela. Ozuna had a 175 wRC+ at home. Nobody else projected is above 110. The Phillies have bottom third of the league estimators L30 days with Kerkering (32) going two in a row. I’m, once again, going with the ScwAghettiback monster on DK. In a tough, but not impossible matchup, Schwellenbach is my top rated pitcher and value (assuming a drop in workload for Skenes) and very reasonably priced on DK ($8.5K). LHBs have a .317 wOBA and .309 xwOBA, but Harper (133, .256) has just a 62 wRC+ L30 days. Schwarber (113, .240), but with the Braves also owning the third best pen estimators L30 days, I’m not going too nuts with expensive Phillies.

Update 5:30 EST: No Soler. No Bohm. Moderate strikeout rates in PHI LU v RHP. Schwellenbach has struck out at least 8 in five straight. Going over 6.5 (+115). Also finding some value on the home team at -110, probably the highest price I'd consider playing at. 

Mets @ Padres

Luis Severino not only threw a four hit shutout last time out, but he also struck out eight batters for a second straight start.

Yes, I’m aware it was the Marlins and Mariners or Marliners.

No, I don’t think he’ll strike out eight Padres too.

He’s had three straight games above a 20 K-BB% and a 16.2% rate over his last 10 starts, but his ground ball rate is down about 10 points (41.8%) over that span. The good news is that with 5.7% Barrels/BBE allowed, Severino has a 3.85 xERA just below his 3.91 ERA. On the other hand, his next best estimator is a 4.15 dERA. Throwing six different pitches at least eight percent of the time, only two (cutter, change) are below a 52 PitchingBot grade and those two are both single digit use pitches. Severino also rocks an impressive 105 Stuff+, which is a…whopping…one point increase from last year. Sorry, thought it’d be more.

Opp wRC+: 116 (17.6 K%, 113 Home)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.79

Woof…Dylan Cease walked five with as many strikeouts at Coors last time out and allowed five runs to the Marlins before that. Previous to that, the Pirates gamed him out of a start, beginning a game with a storm in the area, then delaying the return with pond in the outfield, knocking Cease out after four batters. It hasn’t been that long since he allowed just two hits over three starts. I think he’ll be okay. He threw only 114 pitches in the no-hitter and then pitched pretty well against the Dodgers afterward. It just seems like he got knocked off rhythm for a bit and will hopefully be fine back home. All estimators remain below, but within one-third of a run of his 3.46 ERA. The Mets do struggle with sliders (-0.31 wSL/C), which is Cease’s best pitch (42.7%, 1.4 RV/100, 61 PB grade). His 123 Stuff+ (107 Pitching+) is one of the best marks in the league.

Opp wRC+: 109 (112)
DEF: -11
B30: 2.80

Cease is clearly the better pitcher when on his game, while the Padres are one of the few offenses that have an advantage over the Mets. They also happen to have the best bullpen estimators in the majors over the last 30 days, a run better than the Mets. Also recognize that the Mets are flying across the country for this game without an off day, but a Thursday afternoon game at home. I have the Padres as bigger favorites than they currently are.

Cease is clearly the better pitcher when on his game, while the Padres are one of the few offenses that have an advantage over the Mets. They also happen to have the best bullpen estimators in the majors over the last 30 days, a run better than the Mets. Also recognize that the Mets are flying across the country for this game without an off day, but a Thursday afternoon game at home. I have the Padres as bigger favorites than they currently are.

DFS Notes: As mentioned, the Mets (3.34) are traveling without a day off and are the bottom team on the board. The Padres (4.16) are third from the top. I have no interest in Severino in this lowest upside spot, even for less than $7K. My interest in Cease is limited in nearly as tough a matchup at a much higher price. I believe the guys I rostered may have nearly the same upside at much cheaper prices. There are no Mets bats I’m interested in either with batters from either side no higher than a .290 wOBA or xwOBA against Cease and the best bullpen estimators in the league behind him. LHBs are within three points of a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Severino, but this is a collection of good, not really great, bats, who make contact and are better played as a stack. Considering this is the most negative run environment on the board and the more interesting San Diego bats are fairly expensive, well…I already told you I stacked the Angels/Jays game. The Mets have middle of the league pen estimators L30 days. Diaz (27) and Butto (45) each threw yesterday and Monday.

Update 6:20 EST: Martinez out, Iglesias has half the strikeout rate. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+
Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)

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