Four TBDs on MLB.com at 7 EST on Monday night is right around my borderline for passing going forward, but luckily, Roster Resource listings on a couple of guys were easy enough to confirm on Twitter and I think we're left with just one unknown, which will likely be an opener situation in Detroit. Think I made it three-quarters of the way through and will finish up early Tuesday before posting daily fantasy notes. However, for a 13 game slate (I don't think we've had larger this year), don't expect it to be as in depth on every game as usual.
All stats through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal,.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Eduardo Rodriguez still projects for an ERA around four, about a run less than his actual performance through two starts. Despite a 72 Stuff+, PitchingBot grades are between 57 and 62 on his three most frequently used pitches so far.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.70
A 13.4 BB% just isn’t going to cut it, even if Edward Cabrera’s strikeout rate is double that. The 9.7% Barrels/BBE and 45.5% hard contact rate add another level of problems. The fastball is a mess (22.8%, -3.7 RV/100, 31 PB grade) because he can’t find the plate with it and he’s facing the best fastball hitting team in the league (0.66 wFA/C), though the Diamondbacks are not at full strength. Left-handed batters exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Cabrera.
Opp wRC+: 110 (20.1 K%)
DEF: -6 (better defense on field since trading Chisholm)
B30: 3.19
Rockies @ Nationals
Austin Gomber’s estimators are still above four with a 13.1 K-BB% on the road with his 24 home runs split evenly. Right-handed batters exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 85 (19.8 K%, 6.5 HR/FB)
DEF: 4
B30: 4.62
Thirty-one of DJ Herz’s 68 strikeouts have come in just three of his 12 starts. He’s failed to exceed a 10 K-BB% in half his starts.
Opp wRC+: 81 (27.3 K%, 79 Road)
DEF: -4.5 (better defensive team on field since deadline)
B30: 4.57
Guardians @ Yankees
Matthew Boyd looked great in striking out six of 19 Cubs in his season debut. He has an absurd 63.7 Zone%. He sat a bit above 92 mph, which was in line with and even a bit above his career average. This will obviously be a much more difficult matchup for him.
Opp wRC+: 104 (9.4 K-BB%, 118 Home)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.52
Against the Angels and White Sox, Luis Gil has struck out nine of 42 batters, but also walked seven with a 50% hard contact rate. The 11.9 BB% is a problem (16 K-BB%), especially against a team like the Guardians, who don’t strike out with Gil also owning a 50 point split. Gil’s three pitch pitch grades are between 51 and 54 (PB), while a healthy 111 Stuff+ drops down to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 93 (19.2 K%, 91 Road, 72 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 4.08
DFS Notes: A 13 game slate includes the same three protected environments as Monday and some cooler temperatures with winds blowing in everywhere except on the west coast. On a board that features very few positive run environments, we have just three offenses topping four and a half implied runs and not by much with 15 teams failing to exceed four and the White Sox below three. You would think a slate like this would lend itself to a lot of low priced pitching value, but I preferred to pay up for my pitching tonight and look for my value on offense.
We start below 70 degrees with a 10 mph wind NOW OUT TO right. The Yankees (4.38) are fourth from the top with the Guardians (3.62) fifth from the bottom. Despite some positive feedback from his first start, Boyd is a very difficult trust here, but he is cheap. Gil is over-priced above $9K in this spot, though I have no interest in Cleveland bats against a pitcher who is tough to run on and a middling pen who had Monday off. The Yankee side of things is obvious, but are Judge (224 wRC+, .394 ISO v LHP) and soto (175, .277) cost prohibitive on this slate against the Boyd and the seventh best pen by estimators L30 days, also with Monday off?
Update 4 EST: Wind 10 mph OUT to right.
Reds @ Blue Jays
Roster Resource is listing Carson Spiers, who got an opener last time out and only faced 15 batters ln fewer than three innings, after getting pummeled for eight runs in his previous start. He’s actually increased his K-BB% in a starting role (17.4% since first start), but with a point increase in Barrels/BBE (8.4%). Season estimators hovering around four are about half a run below his 4.55 ERA (69.9 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.5 K%)
DEF: -12.5
B30: 3.68
Seven innings with exactly one in three of Jose Berrios’s last four starts against the Angels, A’s and Rangers, the middle one at home. Not a very impressive run when considering the Yankees smoked him in between. But a 17.9 K-BB% over this span has increased his season rate to 11.9%. His 10.5% Barrels/BBE over this stretch increases that number to 8.1%. A 4.34 is his only estimator within half a run of 3.85 ERA with an xERA and FIP reaching five. Batters from either side exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Berrios.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25.1 K%)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.96
DFS Notes: A neutral run environment roof closed or open, though right-handed power gets a boost in the latter case, the Blue Jays (4.23) are a top half team, the Reds (3.77) a bottom half one. Spiers is cheap enough to not be terrible, while Berrios is volatile enough to win a GPP or crush you early at a reasonable DK price in a high upside matchup. If I were paying down a bit more, I’d seriously be considering him. There are so many great and expensive shortstops that I like Elly here (139 wRC+, .263 ISO v RHP), but he’s far from my favorite at an enormous cost. That’s the extent of my interest in Cincinnati bats. On the other side, it’s merely Vlad (158, .223), who has a 264 wRC+ L30 days and 180 wRC+ at home. Spiers is tough to run on and the Cincy pen is top third of the league L30 days, while the Jays have the third worst pen estimators over the same stretch.
Orioles @ Mets
Even with just one run against the Nationals last time out over six innings, Dean Kremer still has an ERA and estimators above five over his last seven starts with a 5.4 K-BB%, though he has improved his contact profile (7.6% Barrels/BBBE, 36.1% hard hit rate). On the season, it’s an 11.7 K-BB% with 10.4% Barrels/BBE with 28% of his hard contact in barrels. Kremer’s 4.48 ERA is within one-tenth of a run of contact neutral estimators with a 5.11 xERA that’s more than half a run higher and a FIP in between because Baltimore. Citi Field isn’t usually a power upgrade from many parks, but it is from Baltimore’s cavernous left field gap. Kremer has an 87 Stuff+ that works up to only a 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 110 (113 Home, 142 L7 days)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.13
While Jose Quintana struck out eight Mariners, in the two games bookending that he’s walked four in each. Just a 9.6 K-BB% with an average contact profile generates estimators all more than one-third of a run above his 4.26 ERA (.262 BABIP would be a career low by 20 points). Quintana doesn’t have a pitch grade reaching 50, including a 33 grade fastball (21.6%, -0.8 RV/100) that he takes up against the third best fastball hitting team in the league (0.43 wFA/C). The Mets are second by the way (0.49 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 120 (15 HR/FB, 116 Road)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 3.69
I expect plenty of fastball smashing here and lots of early runs. With two great offenses, marginal defenses and neither pitcher owning an estimators below 4.4, I’m going F5 o4.5 (-115) here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
DFS Notes: Below 70 degrees here to with a double digit wind blowing across the field that could alter this game should it change direction. Both offenses are middle of the board at exactly four implied runs and it’s probably easy to infer from the above that I think these two pitchers are a couple of the worst values on the board. Never the less, weather surprisingly scolds me for betting the total early and I am a bit concerned about the impact it’ll have on offense here. Lindor (another high priced SS) (127 wRC+, .184 ISO v RHP) is my favorite Met. All projected exceed a 100 wRC+ v RHP, Bader with the lowest ISO (.140). Tough to run on Kremer, but you don’t usually need to. Both teams have middling pen estimators L30 days. Rutschman (172, .201) is my top ranked Baltimore bat here. He’s also the only projected Oriole below a 99 wRC+ L30 days (69).
Update 5:10 EST: Wind hasn't changed direction, but did drop a couple mph, though the temp is now expected to be mid-60s. Total on F5 has actually increased in price (-115 to -120).
Phillies @ Braves
If you’d blindly told Mets fans that Jarred Kelenic would be a middle of the lineup hitter for the Braves in August, they’d be sick, but another man down and that’s where we might be. Oh, and they also have to face Zach Wheeler, who has 10 quality starts of at least seven innings with a total of 10 earned runs in those starts. With a 20.2 K-BB% and 8.2% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.2% hard hit rate, a 2.99 xERA is barely above his 2.72 xERA with additional estimators between 3.41 (FIP) and 3.60 (dERA). Batters from the left-hand side have a .319 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against him with RHBs below .220. Wheeler utilizes an elite fastball (1.1 RV/100, 67 PB grade) 40.9% of the time and the Braves are a bottom third of the league offenses against fastballs this year (-0.29 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.5 K%)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.26
Reynaldo Lopez returns from a three week IL stint, facing 19 batters in a rehab start on the 13th. An 86.4 LOB% and 6.4 HR/FB are responsible for a 2.06 ERA that’s far below his estimators. In fact, a 3.88 xFIP is his only non-FIP estimator below four with a 15.2 K-BB% and 9.1% Barrels/BBE. Just 26.9% of his barrels have left the yard. A 95 Stuff+ mark and PitchingBot grades from 45 to 55 confirm his average pitcher status. Statcast boosts batters from each side by more than 30 points of xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 103 (101 Road, 132 L7 days)
DEF: -14.5
B30: 3.27
DFS Notes: Near 80 degrees with a near double digit wind out to center in one of the more hitter friendly parks on the slate tonight and I don’t care, I’m rostering Wheeler, my number two overall arm tonight. The Braves (3.71) have the sixth lowest team total with the Phillies (4.29) sixth from the top. Skipping Atlanta bats here, Lopez is still overpriced at $8.5K and with LHBs owning a .312 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him, I’d certainly have some Schwarber (117 wRC+, .244 ISO v RHP) and Harper (136, .261) in multi. You can run on Lopez, but the Braves do have the third worst pen estimators L30 days with the Phillies bottom third of the league.
Brewers @ Cardinals
Frankie Montas has failed to go beyond in five straight and allowed nine runs (six earned) in his first 14 innings for the Brewers with a 16.4 K-BB% and just two barrels. His velocity has been up over a mph from his season average in two of the three starts, but down nearly half a mph in the middle one. He’s throwing more straight fastballs (43.6%, 48 PB grade) and fewer splitters (12.8%, 52 PB grade). That could be beneficial against a St Louis offense that’s second worst in the league against fastballs (-0.61 wFA/C). What won’t be helpful is the .383 wOBA and xwOBA LHBs have against him with RHBs below .300. Despite estimators all within one-third of a run of Montas’s 4.86 ERA, pitch modeling thinks he’s an average pitcher (99 Stuff+ & Pitching+, PB grades from 47 to 52).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 15
B30: 3.53
Erick Fedde has allowed nine runs in two road starts (Cubs, Reds) since being traded, but just one over five in his lone home start (Rays). His 11.9 K-BB% is a bit down from his season mark (14.4%) with six barrels (12%). Seventeen of his 33 barrels have come in just five starts or in other words…bunches. He’s been fine (3.92 xERA – 4.15 SIERA), but not 3.40 ERA fine (.264 BABIP, 79.7 LOB%). Fedde has similar PB grades to Montas, but with just a 92 Stuff+ working up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 108 (107 Home)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 4.06
DFS Notes: A bit above 70 with a light wind in from center in a park that plays neutrally on average over the last few years (though still suppresses power), the Cardinals (3.89) are middle of the board with the Brewers (3.61) fourth from the bottom. Fedde’s not a high upside guy in a sort of difficult matchup for $8K. Similar for Montas, but he’s slightly cheaper. Chourio (119 wRC+, .208 ISO v RHP, 160 wRC+ L30 days) and Burleson (141, .226, 138) are my top rated bats from this game. Montas is tough to run on, Fedde is not. The Cardinals have middling pen estimators the last 30 days, the Brewers sixth best.
Tigers @ Cubs
The Tigers are planning on scaling back on Tarik Skubal’s innings the rest of the way, but do they even have another starter? This may be Bryan Sammons’ turn to bulk, but who knows. Not even FanDuel has a line on this one yet. He has a 13.2 K-BB% in 18.2 innings with five barrels (10%), but just a 36% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 10
B30: 3.99
Those of you who have been reading for much of the season will understand how absolutely shocked I am (SHOCKED I tell you) that Javier Assad’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 9.8% (-3.0 K-BB%) over his last seven starts. All estimators above four and a half with a 3.19 ERA (83.7 LOB%) and he still has a Bartolo Colon like 3.1 K/SwStr. Assad doesn’t have a single pitch grade exceeding 46 (5.11 Bot ERA) with RHBs exceeding a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 90 (24 K%, 85 Road – looks like they’re getting the band back together)
DEF: 7
B30: 3.55
DFS Notes: It’s below 70 degrees with the wind blowing in barely doubled digits from left. Assad may get a reprieve here, but still may be the worst value on the board and I don’t’ even have Sammons rated at all. I have no interest in bats in this game due to conditions with the Tigers (3.45) third from the bottom and Cubs (4.05) middle of the board. The Tigers have middling pen estimators L30 days with the Cubs just inside the top third. The one guy I may not completely ignore is Kerry Carpenter (172 wRC+, .342 ISO v RHP) at a reasonable price.
Pirates @ Rangers
Fifteen runs over Mitch Keller’s last nine innings with four home runs on five barrels. That’s not how regression is supposed to work. There’s no “make up”. He’s just supposed to pitch like the average pitcher he is and now his 3.95 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators to go along with his average pitch modeling (100 Stuff+ and Pitching+, PB grades from 47 to 58, 3.86 Bot ERA). Batters from the left hand side now exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him, which is kind of a normal split for an average pitcher with RHBs within four points of .300.
Opp wRC+: 93 (20 K%)
DEF: -7.5
B30: 4.50
Cody Bradford struck out just a pair of Twins (not like actual brothers or anything) on his way to six innings of two run ball last time out. With an 18.2 K-BB%, he remains better than people expected through 36 innings now, though with the Twins barreling him four times he’s now up to 10.5% of batted balls on the season. A slight concern, but at this sample size, the Ks and walks are still more important. Estimators from a 3.72 FIP to a 4.41 dERA are a bit above his 3.50 ERA because his ground ball rate is just 32%. Stuff+ (93) isn’t really buying, but PB (no grades below 50, 3.60 Bot ERA) certainly is.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.5 K%)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.61
DFS Notes: An even 100 PRF with the roof closed, but if it’s as cool as the rest of the country, will they open it? That’s a 14 point boost on average, but also a small sample. The Rangers (4.24) are seventh from the top with the Pirates (3.76) bottom third of the board. I like Bradford here. In fact, he’s in a group of about three or four guys (Berrios included) that are competing to be the third best arm tonight. He’s reasonably priced at $8K in a solid matchup with upside. I don’t like an average pitcher in a low upside matchup. The Rangers haven’t been potent this year, but they don’t strike out. Seager (159 wRC+, .269 ISO v RHP) is my second favorite SS, but maybe the best SS value. Bart (247, .326) is my favorite catcher on the board with RHBs within 10 points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradford. Both exceed a 160 wRC+ L30 days. Grandal is the only other projected batter in this game above a 120 wRC+ over that span. These pens have the sixth and seventh worst estimators over the L30 days with Yates (32) going two in a row.
Update 5:30 EST: Added Keller u4.5 Ks (+125). Gone under this number 4 of L6 w/ 7.7 SwStr% - just 1 in TEX LU > 20.8 K% v RHP. Roof closed. Heim (or Kelly) in for Langford.
Red Sox @ Astros
Nick Pivetta has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 19 innings, but that includes road starts in Baltimore, Texas and Colorado. Not all great offenses, but some tough parks, while he’s maintained a 28.9 K-BB% over this stretch, bringing his season rate up to 24.1%. It’s been the two home runs in each of those four starts that have done him in, but he’s actually only allowed six barrels, though that’s still 11.5% of contact and a 51.9% hard contact rate. There are some issues with the contact rate (10.3% Barrels/BBE on the season now) and I’m a bit concerned about his now reverse split (RHBs .342 wOBA, .307 xwOBA), though I don’t see how that’s possible with his arsenal. However, the peripherals with all non-FIP estimators at least two-thirds of a run below his 4.49 ERA make up for those concerns with 77.8% of his barrels being home runs. Pivetta is still the baddest pitcher on the planet via pitch modeling (135 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 3.12 Bot ERA).
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.4 K%, 118 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 4.99
Ronel Blanco is the opposite of Pivetta despite his similar rate of barrels (9.4%). He has allowed just 34.9% of his contact to reach a 95 mph EV, which results in a 3.92 xERA that’s his only estimator below four and still more than a run above his 2.89 ERA with a marginal 14.7 K-BB%. Batters from the left-hand side go from a .281 wOBA to a .344 xwOBA. Blanco throws two pitches more than 30% of the time and both the fastball and slider merit a 45 PItchingBot grade in building a 4.49 Bot ERA to pair with his 95 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 112 (118 Road)
DEF: 5
B30: 3.99
Give me no part of that Boston bullpen, but I’ll settle for a defensive disadvantage with comparable offenses when I’m taking a good, undervalued pitcher facing a marginal overvalued one. I have Pivetta (+104) as half a run better by weighted estimators.
DFS Notes: Neutral run environment here drops to 72 PRF on the few occasions it’s open on average. The Red Sox (4.14) are upper middle of the board with the Astros (4.36) fifth best. There’s enough upside (strikeouts) that Blanco is in that group with Berrios and Bradford behind the top two. I don’t love the value on Pivetta against a contact prone offense. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s the better pitcher obviously. Blanco’s split against LHBs is mentioned above and I’d have some Duran (147 wRC+, .268 ISO v RHP), Devers (186, .360) and the much cheaper Abreu (142, .263). All plus Yoshida exceed a 130 wRC+ L30 days. Tough pitcher to run on with middling pen estimators behind him, but Hader (23) working two straight. On the others side, Pivetta does have blowup potential and I’d have some exposure to the top half of this lineup and the reason I only went F5 is that the Red Sox have the second worst pen estimators L30 days with Jansen (23), Martin (49) and Sims (51) all working three of the last four with Sunday off.
Update 4:30 EST: Roof closed. 1.9% gain on BOS F5.
Angels @ Royals
Tyler Anderson struck out eight of 28 Blue Jays, but he also walked four and allowed two home runs on as many barrels. Over his last nine starts, Anderson has a 4.75 ERA/4.35 FIP/3.94 xFIP combo. While he still maintains an 81.6 LOB% on the season, it’s down to just 70.6% over this stretch. Anderson has greatly increased his K-BB (17.5%) over this span (10% season), while reducing his barrels (7.3%) and hard contact (27.2%). Such irony. On the season, his 3.30 ERA is still well below estimators ranging from a 4.15 xERA to a 4.94 dERA. Some of his struggles have come against offenses that handle changeups well and the Royals are another one of those teams (1.0 wCH/C is fifth best).
Opp wRC+: 93 (17.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 7.4 HR/FB, 107 Home, 134 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.33
Averaging 95.3 mph last time out, his highest average velocity since June, but still below his season average (95.6), Cole Hamels struck out eight of 26 Twins, allowing just a single run over seven innings,as the velocity drop hasn’t hindered him much. A 19.9 K-BB% over this stretch is not far below his 21.1% season mark, while his contact profile has remained intact (6.6% Barrrels/BBE, 36.6% hard hit rate). Ragans is working with a 3.18 ERA that’s below all non-FIP estimators, but within a quarter of a run of all estimators. Throwing two pitches more than 12.3% of the time, both the fastball (61) and changeup (60) grade as borderline elite pitches, while the Angels are a bottom half of the league offense against everything except sliders.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.6 K%, 90 Road)
DEF: 24
B30: 4.05
DFS Notes: Mid 70s with a light wind in from right field. The Angels (3.32) is second from the bottom with the Royals (4.68) tied for the top spot on the board. Ironic that the top two pitchers are in the two most positive run environments (KC 110 PRF on average)? I’ve found a way to roster both Hamels and Wheeler on DK, while Hamels is my top overall arm and FD single entry guy. Neto (207 wRC+, .222 ISO v LHP) may be a surprise SS value, but I’m otherwise cutting Angels from the field. Anderson is at least sufficiently priced in a tough spot, despite his increase in K-BB. Witt (141 wRC+, .202 ISO) is my top SS bat and a top bat overall. Garcia (79, .157) may have some value from the leadoff spot only. You can run on Anderson and the Angels have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days behind him.
Rays @ Athletics
Perhaps seven innings of three run ball, while striking out six of 29 Astros is a victory for Shane Baz, throwing a season high 97 pitches, though both his barrels left the park. In fact, he’s allowed nine barrels (8.0%), but seven of them have come in two starts against the Astros and Yankees. An 11.3 K-BB% is not Baz-like though and he’s only exceeded a league average strikeout rate in three of his first four starts and has been below a 9.0 SwStr% in four of seven starts too. PitchingBot still believes the fastball is a beast (45.6%, 61 PB grade), despite its poor results (-2.1 RV/100), while Baz’s 115 Stuff+ drops down to a 101 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.2 K%, 107 Home) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 0
B30: 3.09
Joey Estes has struck out just 13 of his last 78 batters with a 7.3 SwStr% over that span, despite otherwise solid results (seven runs, 19 IP). On the season, his 12.2 K-BB% with just a 24% ground ball rate and 9.5% Barrels/BBE, produce estimators that don’t drop below four and a half, including a 6.26 dERA, which is the only one more than half a run removed from his 4.72 ERA. Command drives a 93 Stuff+ up to a 105 Pitching+ though with an elite sweeper (20.9%, 0.9 RV/100, 67 PB grade), a pitch the Rays have a rough time against (-0.4 wSL/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.1 K%, 70 L7 days)
DEF: 23
B30: 3.42
DFS Notes: Mid-60s, but a near double digit wind out to right-center here. Both the Rays (4.11) and A’s (3.89) are somewhat middle of the board offenses tonight. Even with Oakland’s surprising prowess at home, Baz has enough upside to roster in GPPs at a reasonable price. Estes is probably correctly priced. As always, Butler (116 wRC+, .216 ISO v RHP) and Rooker (156, .262) play here. The Rays do have the second best pen estimators L30 days, but Fairbanks just hit the IL. And like yesterday, I like the Lowes here (Josh 109, .182, Brandon 131, .250). Almost impossible to run on this combo though and the A’s have the fifth best pen estimators L30 days, though Miller (30 L2 days) is likely unavailable.
Twins @ Padres
Bailey Ober brought a 26.1 K-BB% over a nine start stretch into his last start, where he struck out and walked three Rangers, though still allowed just two runs over six innings. With a 20.0 K-BB% on the season, Ober is in borderline Ace territory with the 8.3% Barrels/BBE he allows hurting a bit less, as well as the 33.4 GB%. A 3.37 xERA is his only estimator below a 3.49 ERA, though none reach four. Ober has just a 90 Stuff+ score, but a 102 Pitching+. The changeup (26.3%, 1.7 RV/100, 69 PB grade) has been a monster.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.3 K%, 113 Home, 122 L7 days) (incl. Mon)
DEF: 8
B30: 3.65
Martin Perez has struck out 21 of 71 batters, walking just three with a 14.8 SwStr% since being traded to the Padres. He’s allowed four runs, all on solo home runs (six barrels = 13%), over 18.1 innings. The pitch the Padres have had him lean on more is the curveball (27% since trade, 13% season, 1.1 RV/100, 50 PB grade). Before we get too excited, he’s faced the Rockies, Marlins and Pirates. I believe the last of those teams is the only one reaching even a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year. The Twins will be a much more meaningful barometer, though they struggle on the road and this is a pitcher’s park. Perez still carries 72 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ marks on the year with a 4.93 Bot ERA, while RHBs have a .367 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 112 (98 Road)
DEF: -11
B30: 2.82
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind across the field, both teams (3.75) are tied sixth from the bottom of the board. If you believe in Perez’s rejuvenation with the Padres and Minnesota’s road splits, I’m fine with taking some SP2 shots for $6.8K. In a very tough matchup, but park upgrade, I have Ober with that Berrios/Bradford/Blanco (+ one more guy later) group. I would have at least some exposure in multi for $8.4K on DK. I believe he’s that good when on. If you believe Perez’s success is some matchup based magic, Santana (160 wRC+, .287 ISO v LHP) and Lewis (172, .288) are your top guys here with Margot (105, .118) the value play. If you’re asking about Miranda…(76, .115). The Padres also have the best pen estimators L30 days though, so tread with care. With Minnesota pen estimators just outside the top third of the league L30 days behind Ober, I have no interest in San Diego bats. Ober is tough to run on and this is a collection of good, not great bats, which plays better as a stack.
White Sox @ Giants
Davis Martin has a 9.0 K-BB% over 18 innings, allowing six barrels (12%), though just a 38% hard hit rate. An 86.2% strand rate is responsible for a 3.00 ERA with estimators between a 4.41 dERA and 4.80 SIERA. Pitch modeling sees some upside (101 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+) with the cutter a potential star (17.5%, 5.3 RV/100, 62 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 95 (incl. Mon)
DEF: -19.5
B30: 5.05
Written before his last start at home against the Braves on Wednesday…
“Robbie Ray walked two batters and hit one in his first inning of work before going on to dominate the Dodgers for five innings, striking out eight of 19. He was then shelled for three home runs, not lasting five innings against the A’s. Last time out, he struck out nine of 19 Reds. His last start, against the Tigers, was fairly normal, striking out seven of 25 batters with three walks and two runs over six innings. That’s the Robbie Ray experience in a nutshell. All over the place. A 22.6 K-BB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE through four starts. He’d thrown as many as 94 pitches, but hadn’t exceeded five innings or 21 batters faced in his first three starts, but was up to 105 and 25 last time out.”
He walked three of the eight Braves he faced and hit two more before being yanked after securing just two outs. This guy has been driving me nuts for a decade.
Opp wRC+: 73 (24.5 K%, 72 Road)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.52
DFS Notes: Normal Giants weather is around 60 with the wind blowing out, but not mattering in this park. The Giants (4.68) are tied for the top spot with the White Sox (2.82) a half run below the second lowest team. Volatile means occasional fits of glory, so Ray is that last guy I spoke about just above. I can’t imagine he’d blow up against the White Sox too, but he’s not cheap and has done a lot of things I’d not imagine. If it looks like his ownership will be high, go low and vice versa. I’d personally root for high. Batters from the left-side have hit Ray better so far, but I have no interest in Chicago bats here. The Giants have a top 10 pen behind Ray. Alternately, RHBs have a small sample .346 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Martin so far. Is an expensive Tyler Fitzgerald (169 wRC+, .327 ISO v RHP) another bit SS play? Wade (123, .104 ISO) and Chapman (115, .195) have been okay against RHP too, but it’s a tough park. You also have the worst pen in the league behind Martin though.
Mariners @ Dodgers
Maybe Bryce Miller is starting to change the home/road narrative. I know it’s been the Tigers and White Sox, but three runs over his last 13.1 road innings, striking out 15 of 48 without a walk is dominance. He hasn’t allowed a single run in four of his last six starts and Miller has a 21.4 K-BB% over his last eight starts. With a 17.7 K-BB% on the season, we’re still a bit concerned with 9.8% Barrels/BBE, especially in a road start against the Dodgers, but even that is down to 6% over that eight start stretch with four of his eight surrendered oddly coming in that White Sox game. In fact, he’s had four four barrel games this year (the previous on in Miami of all places), accounting for 16 of his 38 barrels, so they come in spurts. Non-FIP estimators all exceed his 3.29 ERA by more than half a run (because his barrels stay in the park at home), but none reach four or even 3.90. Stuff+ (111 w/ a 105 Pitching+) and Pitching Bot (68 grade splitter, 63 grade fastball) are very high on Miller.
Opp wRC+: 113 (119 Home)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.10
In his first start in two months, Walker Buehler lived up to his name, walking four Brewers, striking out only three and getting the hook in the fourth. At 94.1 mph, he was also sitting more than a mph below his season average velocity. This is a guy who was sitting 96-97 during his peak. With just a 10.8 K-BB%, he doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half this year with LHBs pummeling him for a .424 wOBA and .364 xwOBA. Pitch modeling is a bit kinder with a 96 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+. Nothing he throws more than 7.5% of the time is below a 49 PitchingBot grade with a 3.95 Bot ERA.
Opp wRC+: 99 (28.2 K%)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 4.06
I’m concerned about Bryce Miller in this road start, but I’m panicking over Buehler starting anywhere right now. Maybe not on true talent, but I’ve got Miller a run and a half better on pure performance this season, more than enough for me to like a price like +130 for the F5.
DFS Notes: It’s mid-to-upper 70s with a near double digit wind out to right-center at Dodger Stadium. The home team (4.61) is third from the top with the Mariners (3.89) lower-middle of the board. I can’t, in good conscience, recommend Walker even for $7K right now and I’m not paying in excess of $8K for Miller on the road against the Dodgers. Offensively, I’m jamming some Seattle stacks in there and have Robles (116 wRC+, .147 v RHP) and Raleigh (114, .195) in my single entry on either site. Robles has seemed to slow down (84 wRC+ L30 days) as soon as the Mariners foolishly signed him to that extension. The Dodgers have middling pen estimators L30 days with Phillips (61) working four of the last six. On the other side, Ohtani (192, .384) of course. Betts (156, .205), Lux (110, .157) and Muncy (131, .283), who homered in his first game back, too. Oh, and Freeman (158, .206), who apparently is not injured? The Seattle pen has bottom third of the league estimators L30 days.
Top DFS Pitchers Overall
1 - Cole Ragans
2 - Zach Wheeler
Top DFS Bats Overall
1 - Shohei Ohtani
2 - Bobby Witt
3 - Corey Seager
4 - Aaron Judge
5 - Kyle Schwarber
Top DFS Bat Values
FD - Joey Bart, Lawrence Butler, Seager
DK - Bart, Butler, Manuel Margot, Carlos Santana (going strictly by Perez's .367 wOBA and xwOBA against RHB this year)
Legend
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
Add comment
Comments