I had fully intended on posting Saturday and went through all 15 games and only came up with value on a few large dogs I felt uncomfortable with (although the Tigers won easily). It seems to be that point in the year where large favorites are being over-priced (in other words, football season). Even the worst pitchers have a price at which they begin to have value. The best teams and pitchers lose to the worst teams and pitchers frequently every year. It's very rare a team should be a true 3-1 favorite, so there may be some uncomfortable plays from here on out.
Still waiting on four pitchers for Monday (20% of the slate). Roster Resource best guesses don't even have anyone listed for Hunter Greene's spot (IL) against the Blue Jays. Going forward, I may make a three pitcher TBD limit. If you look on MLB.com and see TBD listed more than three times by 7pm EST on any given night, there will be no post the following day. It's become a cumbersome process when adding searching for starting pitchers to my list of things to do here. Through all 10 with the information given so far, I can't find a single game of interest yet, though perhaps that changes when all pitchers are confirmed.
All stats are through Thursday unless otherwise noted. Legend at bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Brandon Pfaadt is listed on Roster Resource, but mentioned on Twitter, while MLB.com features TBD (7:20 EST).
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.61
Adam Oller threw 19.2 innings with Oakland last year and 94 major league innings total since 2022 with a 1.8 K-BB%. In 27.2 AAA innings with Cleveland (12.0 K-BB%) and 25 with Miami (17.3 K-BB%), he’s allowed a total of eight home runs. Twenty-two of his 32 major league barrels (9.8%) have become home runs. His average projection (and not all major systems even give him one) is near five.
Opp wRC+: 110 (20 K%, 107 Road)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 3.35
Update 4:15 EST: This will be Pfaadt. In addition to Marte being down, Smith is in for Bell.
Reds @ Blue Jays
Nobody seems to have a clue who will be taking Hunter Greene’s spot in the rotation (7:30 EST).
Julian Aguair confirmed for his debut. The 23 year-old right-hander is a 45 Future Value grade (45) arm and the seventh ranked prospect in the organization by Fangraphs. Aguiar appears to be a command (60 FVG) over stuff type without a FVG over 55 on any of his three pitches. This profile has him projected as a back end of the rotation arm in an April scouting report, which didn’t expect his debut until 2025. This year, Aguiar has a marginal 12.6 K-BB% in nine AAA starts (47 IP) and 14.5 K-BB% over 13 AA starts (69.1 IP). With only Steamer projecting him and four a 4.95 ERA/5.05 FIP, attrition may have rushed his path to the majors.
Opp wRC+: 100 (20.5 K%, 100 Road) (incl. Sun)
DEF: -13
B30: 3.68
While he may no longer be doing it as consistently effectively, Kevin Gausman is going very deep into games, facing at least 26 batters in nine of his last 10 and finishing seven innings or more in four of his last six. The problem is that his 21.4 K% is his lowest mark since 2018 and his 14.4 K-BB% is more than three and a half points below any season since then either. His K-BB% is higher than his K% this season in each of the last four seasons prior to this one. And at 10.7% Barrels/BBE, he’s already just one barrel below last year’s career high of 46. The fastball is still elite (51.8%, -0.1 RV/100, 64 PB grade), but the splitter is more good than great (32%, 0.1 RV/100, 55 PB grade)…by Pitching Bot grades at least. A 3.73 Bot ERA is well below estimators exceeding four. By Stuff+ Gausman is below average (94), though solid command drives that up to a 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25 K%)
DEF: 20
B30: 4.88
I have a borderline lean towards the Reds here (+145) mostly because the Toronto bullpen is so bad, but I generally need to find more value to act the less information (starts) I have on a pitcher.
DFS Notes: The good news is that there are really no weather issues. Temperatures are mostly in the 70s without any strong winds with three of the nine environments protected. One potential problem is the Dodger lineup. We’re looking at some activations (possibly Muncy & Edman), along with a Freeman injury situation that will probably run their lineup late. One offense exceeds a five run total by nearly half a run with another four barely at the four and a half run mark with half the board not exceeding four and a single offense below three implied runs.
We are still two pitchers short. One in the early game (likely Pfaadt?) and one on the slate. Dane Dunning was just confirmed for Texas as I write this. It was previously expected to be Urena. We still have absolutely no idea who’s pitching for the Reds. We start with a protected environment in Toronto, a 98 PRF with the roof closed increases to an even 100 on average when open and this has become more difficult to find out lately. The biggest boost would go to right-handed power, which increases from neutral to a 112 home run factor with the roof open.
The volatile Gausman is my fourth ranked pitcher overall right now, but a decent value in a favorable spot for less than $9K. The value is more in the workload than the strikeouts this year, but occasionally, he’s still been able to combine both. Batters from either side are between a .316 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Elly (142 wRC+, .165 ISO v RHP, 123 wRC+ L30 day) and Stephenson (105, .185, 144) are easily the hottest and most competent batters against RHP in this projected lineup. The Toronto pen has the third worst pen estimators over the last 30 days. How can I advise on Blue Jays when I don’t know who’s pitching. What I do know is Vlad (156, .217, 270) and Horwitz (141, .173, 72) are the only projected Blue Jays against RHP, exceeding a 100 wRC+ against them this year. Vlad is the only Toronto bat above a 110 wRC+ L30 days. The Reds are just outside top third of the league pen estimators L30 days. Oh, the Reds (3.45) are third from the bottom with the Blue Jays (4.55) third from the top even without a confirmed or even likely pitcher.
Update 6:10 EST: Open roof.
Orioles @ Mets
Not only has Trevor Rogers walked as many as he’s struck out (eight each) in three starts for the Orioles, he’s done so in each start as well, while allowing 13 runs (12 earned) over 14.1 innings. With just a 7.2 K-BB% and somewhat average contact profile on the season, Rogers doesn’t have a non-FIP estimators more than one-third of a run outside his 4.89 ERA, but does have a 4.48 FIP with just 13 of 33 barrels leaving the park. If you’re wondering, he didn’t allow a barrel in his lone start in Baltimore. An 83 Stuff+ does work up to a near average 98 Pitching+ that coincides with a 4.14 Bot ERA, so pitch modeling is a bit more optimistic than actual results with batters from either side exceeding a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 119 (113 Home, 138 L7 days)
DEF: -2.5
B30: 4.06
David Peterson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts (six quality starts), but has stranded 81.8% of his runners with just a 7.2 K-BB% (same as his opponent). He’s kept 53.3% of his contact on the ground, but still allowed 8% Barrels/BBE with a 43.9% hard hit rate. Non-FIP estimators (six home runs, 17 barrels) are at least a run and a half above his 3.04 ERA. Most of his good fortune has come against RHBs, who have a .311 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA against Peterson, who’s sinker (30.6%, 1.6 RV/100, 51 PB grade) is his only PB grade above 47 (4.92 Bot ERA), which is line with 94 Stuff+ and Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 120 (115 Road & L7 days)
DEF: 1.5
B30: 3.61
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a near double digit wind out to right in a negative run environment with two poor pitchers I have absolutely no interest in using. The Mets (4.5) are fifth from the top with the Orioels (4.0) square middle of the board. Peterson’s reverse split is significantly reversed by Statcast, but with all batters above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA, Rutschman (177 wRC+, .206 ISO v LHP), Henderson (153, .245) and Santander (141, .297) are my favorite O’s. Mountcastle (92) and Adley (75) are the only projected Orioles below a 110 wRC+ L30 days, but all three mentioned are above a 125 wRC+ on the road. The Mets have upper half of the league pen estimators L30 days. My FD single entry is a Mets stack, including Vientos (198, .326), Martinez (155, .200), Lindor (137, .267) and Iglesias (183, .130) with Alonso (149, .301) the glaring omission there. Vientos and Alvarez (100, .137) made my DK lineup, as I had to essentially punt catcher. All mentioned except Alvarez exceed a 110 wRC+ L30 days. Rogers is very easy to run on and Baltimore pen estimators are bottom third of the league L30 days with Cano (29) going two in a row.
Update 4:40 EST: Forecast now calling for temps near 80 with a double digit wind out to right-center.
Pirates @ Rangers
Luis Ortiz has just a 2.6 K-BB% over his last five starts with 10.1% Barrels/BBE after posting a 27.4 K-BB% with 3.9% Barrels/BBE over his first three starts (plus one relief appearance in between). He’s gone more sinker heavy (14.6% first three, 26.3% last five, 40% last two), although the ground balls have dropped with the strikeouts. Oh, and he’s also allowed 15 runs over his last 21.2 innings with seven of nine barrels (13.2%) leaving the park. The sinker looks like a good pitch (25%, 1.3 RV/100, 55 PB grade) and he’ll be throwing them to the right team here (Rangers -0.73 wSI/C is third worst in the majors). It’s every other pitch that has a negative run value over this rough stretch (it’s confusing because negative run value used to be good for pitchers, but Statcast swapped it last year so it’s bad for everyone). Left-handed batters have a 30 points higher wOBA, but 80 point higher xwOBA against Ortiz than RHBs.
Opp wRC+: 92 (20.1 K%)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 4.31
Jone Urena is listed on Roster Resource, but mentioned on Twitter, while MLB.com features TBD (8:15 EST).
Opp wRC+: 83 (24.4 K%)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.66
DFS Notes: A perfectly neutral 100 Park Run Factor with the roof closed, as it always is during the summer, the Rangers (4.51) are fourth from the top with the Pirates (3.99) middle of the board. I have no interest in Ortiz here, but my interest in Texas bats is probably limited to Seager (152 wRC+, .250 ISO v RHP, 140 wRC+ L30 days). All of those numbers plus his 131 wRC+ at home lead the projected lineup. Of course, there’s one better SS overall on the board. The Pirates have bottom third of the board pen estimators L30 days I don’t hate Dunning in this spot. This is a great matchup and his contact neutral estimators are below four and a half. In fact, at just $6.6K, he’s currently my DK SP2. That said, I think IKF (122, .159, 112) (if in the leadoff spot) and Bart (109, .231, 167) are strong values here. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .360 with RHBs not exceeding .330 against Dunning this year. The Rangers have the fifth worst bullpen estimators L30 days with Robertson (34) going two straight.
Update 5:30 EST: Roof closed. Heim gets a fifth LHB against Oritz. Hayes to the IL. Several down lineup swaps for PIT (6 through 8), giving them six LHBs and I need to correct a MAJOR error above. I still had Urena loaded as the place holder when quoting Dunning's splits. LHBs are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Reynolds (133, .196), Cruz (130, .212) and IKF are all viable here. Bart is still fine. I'm still up in the air on Dunning vs Stone. The error was only in splits against.
Red Sox @ Astros
Even with three runs over his last 12.2 innings, Tanner Houck still has a 4.98 ERA/5.80 FIP/4.93 combo over his last eight starts with a 2.0 K-BB%. Over these last two starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out, so no, he is not fixed. Ironically, everyone was so concerned with his newfound ability to get LHBs out, he forgot how to get RHBs out (.399 wOBA with a 0.0 K-BB% over this eight start strech). His season estimators still don’t exceed four, but are all more than half a run above his 3.01 ERA (that’s how great his first three months were), aside from a 3.28 FIP (none home runs on 25 barrels). The good news is that pitch modeling doesn’t believe he’s lost much with a 111 Stuff+ over this span, compared to 110 on the season, but the command has declined (105 Pitching+ season, 100 last eight starts).
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.4 K%, 117 Home, 115 L7 days)
DEF: -17.5
B30: 5.06
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed just five runs over 16.2 innings since being traded with a 27.2 K-BB% (21% season). Astros tossed the curveball (-0.1 RV, 65 PB grade), redistributing those pitches between sliders (0.4 RV/100, 57 PB grade) and changeups (-0.2 RV/100, 36 PB grade). No, it does not make sense, but it’s worked. He’s also faced Tampa Bay twice and Texas, not entirely over-achieving offenses this season. A lot still remains to be seen. Kikuchi’s 4.49 ERA is still more than a run above contact neutral estimators, but less than a half run above his 4.03 xERA with 10% Barrels/BBE. He has very similar pitch modeling results to Houck with a 110 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102 (27.9 K%, 118 Road)
DEF: 5
B30: 4.04
DFS Notes: Another perfectly neutral protected environment with the roof closed, which it almost certainly will be, the Astros (4.24) are middle of the board with the Red Sox (3.76) closer to the bottom. Only two batters in the Boston projected lineup below a 24.4 K% vs LHP this year, so despite their prowess on the road this season, Kikuchi is my volatile top pitcher on the board tonight and in both my single entry lineups. Considering the barrel propensity, I can’t argue with O’Neill (185 wRC+, .340 ISO v LHP, 191 wRC+ L30 days) or Refsnyder (158, .235, 132) here, though Statcast turns Kikuchi’s 48 point split into a 1 point reverse split within two points of .315. I recognize this is a dangerous spot, but I’m playing for upside tonight. The Houston pen has middling estimators L30 days with Abreu (29) back to back. With Houck’s issues now with RHBs, I have no interest in him for more than $8K here. I might even consider going overweight on Astros in multi. Altuve (119, .143, 111), Bregman (127, .182, 148), Diaz (115, .136, 162) and Alvarez (150, .257, 196) all look good here. In other words, the top half of the lineup. Pena (102, .116, 134) is fine too. The Red Sox have the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4:50 EST: Roof closed. Bregman still out. HOU three LHBs against Houck's now reverse split.
Angels @ Royals
Carson Fulmer threw 4.2 no-hit innings, striking out seven of 17 Mariners in his first start of the season. Since then, he’s allowed 15 runs over 23.1 innings with a 9.0 K-BB%, five of seven barrels (9.7%) leaving the park and half his contact reaching a 95 mph exit velocity. The Angels figured they might as well give him a shot. It’s not working out.
Opp wRC+: 101 (18.5 K%, 107 Home, 128 L7 days)
DEF: -10
B30: 4.51
I went on a bit of Seth Lugo rant last time out, using him as the poster boy for regression. The Twins tagged him for eight more runs in just four innings and the ERA is above three now (3.04). Part of the success has been just 14 home runs on 35 barrels. Kansas City is a positive run environment, but power suppressing one. So, of course his home runs and barrels have been evenly distributed. However, non-FIP estimators are basically all four (3.97 xFIP – 4.09 SIERA). As I’ve been shouting all year, that’s an average pitcher and the Royals would have been perfectly fine with that. Aside from 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ scores, only one of Lugo’s 397 pitches exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade and that’s, of course, the curveball (16.8%, 2.3 RV/100, 57 PB grade).
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 25
B30: 4.14
DFS Notes: Nearly 80 degrees with a light wind in from center, the Royals (5.47) top the board with the Angels (3.53) fourth from the bottom. Everyone knows this is a power suppressing park. Not everyone knows it’s a positive run environment. Hardly anyone realizes it’s one of the most positive run environments in the league with a 110 PRF via Statcast (3 year). That easily makes it the top run environment on this slate. Let’s easily dismiss Fulmer and start with Kansas City bats. Witt (183 wRC+, .281 ISO v RHP, 249 wRC+ L30 days) is the bat to jam in there tonight. Massey (101, .200, 94) and Melendez (104, .242, 109) are two of my favorite values, assuming the leadoff spot for the former. Pasquantino (118, .195, 153) looks strong here too. LHBs have a .324 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against Fulmer with RHBs within five points of .300. The Angels have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days with Contreras (40) on two of three days. Lugo is my third best overall pitcher in a favorable spot and a reasonable value for $9.5K or less. There’s nothing wrong with an average pitcher in a good spot on a rough pitching board. You can’t run on him and the Kansas City pen is bottom half of the board via L30 day estimators with Erceg throwing 28 pitches on Sunday. No interest in Angels, either daily fantasy wise or spiritually.
Rays @ Athletics
After a stretch of nine starts where Tajj Bradley only allowed even two runs once, he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 14 innings with a 12.9 K-BB% (20.1% season) and four of five barrels (10.4%) leaving the yard. The barrel rate (10.6% season) is a problem if he’s not sustaining a close to 20 K-BB%. The splitter, cutter and fastball all have positive run values on the season, but largely negative over this three start stretch. Despite a 115 Stuff+ mark (102 Pitching+), of those pitches, only the fastball (42.2%, 0.1 RV/100, 55 PB grade) exceeds a 50 PitchingBot grade. In fact, the cutter is just a 40.
Opp wRC+: 98 (25.2 K%, 108 Home, 140 L7 days)
DEF: -2.5 (putting a much worse defensive team on the field post-deadline)
B30: 3.11
Joe Boyle returned to the majors after a three month absence for his eight start of the season and came out throwing strikes. If you go to his Plate Discipline game logs on Fangraphs, every single stat they register is improved in his last start, as compared to the season. He struck out six of 23 Mets (15.3 SwStr%), but still ended up walking three and allowing four runs, only completing four innings. It fell apart late, but was more impressive than his final line before that. The 23 K% and 4.5% Barrels/BBE signify a potential star in the making, if he can at least cut in half the 17.1% walk rate. A 20.4 BB% in 11 AAA starts since being sent down suggests he has not conquered that particular flaw. Batters from the left side have a .399 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against him with RHBs below .300.
Opp wRC+: 94 (24.1 K%, 62 L7 days)
DEF: -23
B30: 3.51
DFS Notes: Mid-60s with a light wind out to right center, Both the Rays (3.93) and A’s (3.57) are bottom half of the board. Taj is among a group of pitchers that may be fifth best overall, but he’s at least sufficiently priced at $9K or more. I don’t trust Boyle off of one marginal start where he faltered late. The walk rates are insane. My interest in Oakland bats starts with Butler (116 wRC+, .217 ISO v RHP, 139 wRC+ L30 days) and ends with Rooker (159, .256, 170). The Tampa Bay pen has the second best estimators L30 days, BUT Fairbanks (53) has pitched two of the last three days and left the game with an injury after blowing a three run ninth inning lead on Sunday. Uceta (36) and Cleavinger (29) have worked two straight. I have both Lowes, Brandon (135, .255, 154) and Josh (110, .186, 139) in my DK single entry and would certainly consider Boyle’s implosion potential in multi. The A’s have top quarter of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Twins @ Padres
Zebby Matthews struck out five of 20 Royals (7.8 SwStr%) without a walk and one of two barrels (13.3%) leaving the yard. Only 40% of his contact was on the ground with a 60% hard hit rate. A better line (two runs over five innings) than the underlying numbers suggest. The 24 year-old has just 19 innings at AAA, which seems to be the trend lately (skipping AAA), but when you have a 27 K-BB% at both levels above A ball and a 33.3 K-BB% without a walk in 22.2 A+ innings before that…
Matthews is a 45 FV grade (Fangraphs) with a scouting report on that site that’s fairly fresh (6/25), suggesting fourth starter upside right now, the biggest flaws being lack of a platoon busting pitch and perhaps living in the middle of the zone too much. Projection systems average a bit below four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.7 K%, 114 Road, 127 L7 days)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 3.61
Michael King is now up to a 20.4 K-BB% with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE and a 29.5% hard contact rate. All estimators exceed his 3.19 ERA, but are below three and a half. Last time out, I mentioned I’m finally not embarrassed enough to admit that I threw a few dollars on him to win the CY pre-season at +10000 (that’s four zeros). He won’t win it because Chris Sale exists, but all PitchingBot grades are between 53 and 59. King has allowed just seven barrels (2.8%) over his last 17 starts with a 23.9 K-BB%.
Opp wRC+: 112 (98 Road)
DEF: -9.5
B30: 2.84
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind in from near the left field pole in a negative run environment sees both the Padres (3.85) and Twins (3.15) bottom half the board, the latter second from the bottom. King is my number two pitcher overall, but a marginal value as the most expensive against a dangerous offense, though they have struggled on the road. Wallner (175 wRC+, .320 ISO v RHP, 186 wRC+ L30 days, 164 wRC+ road) is the only Minnesota bat of interest. The Padres have the top pen estimators L30 days. In his first game, LHBs hit Matthews for a .460 wOBA and .478 xwOBA. I think his propensity to be in the zone could actually hurt him here. This is a tough, disciplined lineup with Kim (98) and Bogaerts (98) the only two projected Padres below a 100 wRC+ v RHP. I’ve rostered Profar (139, .172, 146, 160) in both lineups tonight and Cronenworth (129, .199, 80, 140) on FD. The Twins are barely a top third pen by L30 day estimators, but all of the top guys have been heavily used since Thursday, though none have exceeded 20 pitches in any single outing.
Update 5:50 EST: Vazquez in for Jeffers. Wade in for Kim. Swish has Bill Miller listed as the home plate umpire. If true, that's a boost for pitchers. Still have Kikuchi ahead of King for upside. King may have the higher floor with upside not too far below Kikuchi.
White Sox @ Giants
Jonathan Cannon snapped a streak of three straight quality starts with a total of four, despite a 1.3 K-BB%, last time out. The Yankees got him for three in less than five with just four strikeouts and three walks. Two of his three barrels left the park. With a 4.0 K-BB% over his last six starts, Cannon is down to 9.4% on the season. He’s also allowed multiple barrels in seven of his 13 starts, though just a league average 8.1% on the season with a reasonable 38.6% hard contact rate. Cannon produces estimators ranging from a 4.56 xERA to a 4.75 SIERA that are more than half a run above his 4.02 ERA, though there’s not any single thing on it’s own that’s responsible for it. Batters from the left side are within three points of a .340 wOBA and wOBA against him with RHBs 15 to 25 points lower. The rookie has just 93 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ scores, but at least a 50 PitchingBot grade on all four pitches he throws more than 10% of the time, though none exceed 55.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: -19.5
B30: 5.00
Eleven of Kyle Harrison’s 38 strikeouts over his last eight starts came in one outing (against the Rockies). His 14.2 K-BB% is league average, brought down by allowing 10.8% Barrels/BBE, but only five of those 18 barrels have left the yard at home, including two of four against the Braves last time out. His K-BB does increase to 18.8% at home, but overall, his 4.14 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 4.19 SIERA to a 4.88 xERA. The park is always going to help him to some degree, though, though RHBs have a .331 wOBA, but .356 xwOBA this season. That drops down to a .303 wOBA at home. More extreme than the estimators, pitch modeling sees Harrison as a below average pitcher (4.97 Bot ERA, 89 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 76 (24,1 K%, 8.1 HR/FB)
DEF: 8.5
B30: 3.73
DFS Notes: It’s around 60 with a near double digit wind that doesn’t matter in this park out to center. The White Sox (2.87) trail the board with the Giants (4.63) surprisingly second from the top. Kyle Harrison is among that fifth grouping I included Bradley in earlier and a decent value here around $8K. No interest in Chicago bats here. The Giants have the fifth best pen estimators L30 days, though Walker threw 35 pitches on Sunday. No interest in Cannon. However, Fitzgerald (172 wRC+, .330 ISO v RHP, 212 wRC+ L30 days) is the only projected Giant above a 120 wRC+ against RHP and Wade (120) only has a .105 ISO v RHP and 62 wRC+ L30 days. I’m probably going underweight on Giants tonight in multi, despite the White Sox owning the worst pen in baseball last 30 days.
Mariners @ Dodgers
Bryan Woo appears to be healthy and he has been dealing. Three runs over his last 20.2 innings, striking out 19 with a single walk and facing at least 25 batters between 85 and 92 pitches in each start. A K-BB exceeding 23% in all three starts has him up to 17.2% on the season with just 1.8% Barrels/BBE and a 31.8% hard contact rate on the season. Woo’s 2.23 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator within a run and two-thirds of his 2.06 ERA. It’s fastball (1.3 RV/100, 62 PB grade) or sinker (3.2%, 73 PB grade) 74.4% of the time, but the slider (-1.8 RV/100, 56 PB grade) is up to 20.7%, on par with the sinker (21.3%) over his last five starts.
Opp wRC+: 113 (119 Home)
DEF: -4.5
B30: 3.98
Gavin Stone’s six strikeouts against 19 Brewers last time out were his most since June (seven starts), though he did so with just a 9.3 SwStr% that’s two points below his season rate. Just a 12.4 K-BB% that value is in the control (6.3 BB%) and strong contact management (5.8% Barrels/BBE, 35.3% hard contact rate), though he still doesn’t have an estimator below four, all nearly half a run or more above his 3.63 ERA (79.4 LOB%). With PitchingBot grades between 48 and 57 on everything thrown more than five percent of the time, Stone compiles a 4.15 Bot ERA, 99 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ that fit his estimators. Same-side batters have been a bit better against him (.324 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) than LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 97 (28.4 K%)
DEF: -3
B30: 3.90
DFS Notes: Low 70s with a near double digit wind out to right-center, the Dodgers (4.24) are middle of the board with the Mariners (3.76) bottom half. Projecting Muncy and Edman back, but Freeman out, Woo is a tough roster above $8K, despite his recent uptick. That said, RHBs are below a .205 wOBA and xwOBA against him. I’m sticking to just Ohtani (193 wRC+, .387 ISO v RHP) here. The Mariners do have bottom half of the board estimators in the pen L30days. Stone is in that group of fifth guys (Harrison, Bradley) in the highest upside matchup, but probably the top value among them. In fact, I’m strongly debating moving him into my SP2 spot on DK. Robles (124 wRC+, .153 ISO) remains surprisingly interesting and cheap here with Julio the only projected Mariner below a 100 wRC+ v RHP this year (it’s the park!). Stone is tough to run on though, while the Dodgers have middle of the board pen estimators L30 days, just four spots ahead of the Mariners with Kopech (40) going three of last four and Phillips (48) three of last five.
Top Overall Pitchers (DFS)
1 - Yusei Kikuchi
2 - Michael King
3 - Seth Lugo
4 - Kevin Gausman
Best lower priced values - Dane Dunning & Gavin Stone
Top Overall Bats (w/o a confirmed CIN pitcher)
1 - Bobby Witt
2 - Shohei Ohtani
3 - Francisco Lindor
4 - Mark Vientos
Top Value Bats (no particular order)
Michael Massey, Vientos, Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez (FD)
Massey, MJ Melendez, Vientos, Josh Lowe
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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