Still have six games to get to in the morning/afternoon and we still have some unconfirmed pitchers. Daily fantasy notes on just an eight game Friday slate will be posted afterward. There seem to be more and more earlier and earlier starts every month. I'm not a fan of expanding the slate to start a half hour earlier, but some of these parks rarely see a main daily fantasy slate anymore. I don't even think I can blame Manfred for this (like I can for now wanting to mandate that starting pitchers go six innings). I think start times are up to home teams.
All stats through Wednesday unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Blue Jays @ Cubs
Yariel Rodriguez has flashed on occasion and when that happens, the Blue Jays will let him exceed four and occasionally five innings. They did just, in fact, mention a 90 pitch threshold, which could easily have been assumed, since he hasn’t hit that mark all season. An 11.9 K-BB% matches his walk rate and that’s the main problem. The starts where he’s walked fewer than two have been his best by run prevention. He’s only allowed six barrels all year (4.4%) with a 38% hard hit rate. The slider (26.7%, 0.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) should have some success against the Cubs (-0.52 wSL/C is bottom third of the league).
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 18.5
B30: 4.86
Kyle Hendricks posted his third quality start of the season and his last eight games last time out, allowing a total of four runs in 20 innings in them. He had and still has a bit of positive regression to go with a 6.00 ERA that’s more than a run and a quarter above all estimators and more than two runs above contact neutral estimators. With just a 9.6 K-BB%, that certainly doesn’t mean he’s been good, but Hendricks still manages contact well (32.8% hard hit rate). He has just one PitchingBot grade outside a 54 to 56 range and that’s a fastball (30) he only throws 13% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 101 (20.5 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.53
The Cubs have just one advantage in this game, but it’s a huge one and we’re likely seeing bullpens each pitch upwards of four innings in this game. I’m happy to have the Cubs at -108 in a close game when the starters exit. But I won’t to too nuts here because Hendricks is who we’re relying on to keep it close until then. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 1:15 EST: Mid-80s with the wind blowing out, not too hard. A 2.63% gain on the Cubbies.
Royals @ Reds
With a 6.7 K-BB%, a 4.95 xERA is Michael Lorenzen’s only estimator within a run and a quarter of his 3.79 ERA, while RHBs have a .368 wOBA and .370 xwOBA against him. Lorenzen throws seven pitches and none of them reach a 50 PitchingBot grade. A great defense helps and he’s had them in two organizations this year, but not to the extent that he’s beaten his peripherals.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.9 K%, 90 Home)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.32
Traditionally known as a guy who excels out of the bullpen, but struggles as a starter, Nick Martinez has been turning that narrative around with 12 innings of shutout baseball, striking out 12 of 42 batters without a walk in Milwaukee and Miami. If we go back to May though, he’d allowed five runs in five straight starts before a longer term move to the pen. How much can we trust a 108 Pitching+ or 64 grade cutter (21.2%, 1.6 RV/100)? If you’re answer is a lot, the Royals are your fifth worst offense against cutters (-0.73 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.5 K%, 88 Road, 112 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.50
Mariners @ Pirates
Logan Gilbert doesn’t have the extreme home/road splits that some of his other rotation mates do, but there is some amount of drop-off (K-BB down 5.8 points, FIP up half a run) and his two worst starts (15 runs in 6.2 innings in Boston and Minnesota), the only two times he’s allowed more than four earned runs, have come on the road.
Opp wRC+: 83 (24.4 K%)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.96
With eight runs over his last 17.1 innings and just a 15.3 K-BB% over that span (26.7% overall), Paul Skenes has finally been exposed as the fraud that he is. Estimator range from 2.61 xERA to 2.77 SIERA, well above his 2.25 ERA (85.6 LOB%).
Opp wRC+: 98 (28.4 K%)
DEF: -14
B30: 4.42
Nationals @ Phillies
I don’t know why Patrick Corbin doesn’t throw more cutters (16.8%, -0.5 RV/100, 58 PB grade). Two of the last three times he exceeded 20% with it, he recorded quality starts. Still, overall, his 5.98 ERA meets a 5.90 xERA, but no other estimator reaches five. The contact neutral ones say a .341 BABIP and 63.5 LOB% will regress. The xERA says 9% Barrels/BBE and a 47.4% hard contact rate. In addition to a 76 Stuff+ that only works up to a 95 Pitching+, the cutter is his only PitchingBot grade reaching 50.
Opp wRC+: 119 (114 Home)
DEF: -6.5 (though putting a positive defensive lineup on the field since deadline)
B30: 4.47
Aaron Nola has just a 9.7 K-BB% over his last five starts This, after five starts where he posted a 28.7 K-BB%. He’s thrown the same pitches at the same ratios, so this Is not an easy analysis. The obvious truth is somewhere in between with a 16.9 K-BB% that authors estimators all within half a run of his 3.60 ERA, but only one barely below it (3.54 xFIP). Nola is inching closer to mediocracy. His 104 Stuff+ and Pitching+ are also above average, but unspectacular. The fastball (26.8%) and curveball (31.8%) are still elite pitches with PB grades above 60, but everything else is below 50, while LHBs have handled him well enough this year (.318 wOBA, .324 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.16
I hate myself for this, but the numbers are telling me this line is too high again. Nola is being treated as a superstar facing a completely inept offense and that’s not the case. You add a Philly pen that’s been pretty marginal and…well….I'm not comfortable with it, but +220.
Update 4:30 EST: Low 80s with a light wind out to right-center, could be an over game. Half a percent loss on WAS.
Yankees @ Tigers
While Gerrit Cole hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last three starts, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven and hit double digit strikeouts for the first time last time out against Texas with a 25.6 SwStr%. Last time we thought he was back on track, Cole was blown up by the Mets. He’s almost reached last season’s velocity (96.7 mph) in his last two starts, a half run above where he is this year overall (96.1), as he’s cut down on his sliders (13.7%) in favor cutters (20.5%). The interesting thing is the curveball (16.2%, 2.4 RV/100, 67 PB grade) has easily been his best pitch and the only one reaching a 55 PB grade. He’s not this 4.70 ERA guy and likely not the 4.57 FIP or 4.47 xERA either (9.8% Barrels/BBE), but is he the 3.75 SIERA/3.97 xFIP guy (18.9 K-BB%)?
Opp wRC+: 92 (98 Home)
DEF: 12.5
B30: 4.26
Do the Tigers have any healthy starters behind Skubal? This is rumored to be Brant Hunter, who has struck out eight of 32 batters with a single walk. He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet, but does have a 47.8% hard hit rate. Projections are a bit all over the place, but average not too far above four.
Opp wRC+: 106 (121 Road, 147 L7 days)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.19
Maybe people will just start walking Judge AND Soto. What do we have here? A star pitcher who might be coming around, but may be starting his decline facing what may be a competent pitcher in a bulk role. A below average offense that plays near average at home and another that’s a simple two man wrecking crew in their lesser split. Two comparably strong defenses and struggling bullpens. Tigers +160 seems worth the shot.
Update 4:05 EST: Hurter gets an opener (Brieske). Jung and Sweeney debut for Tigers and a 1.15% loss on DET.
Diamondbacks @ Rays
Pitch modeling was trying to tell us that Ryne Nelson’s fastball (54.7%, 0.4 RV/100, 60 PB grade) was a star all along, but even he wasn’t listening. Since he’s upped its usage to a 64.1%, Nelson’s posted a 21.2 K-BB%, allowing just 15 runs over 44.2 innings. He has four quality starts of at least 6.2 innings in that span with just two barrels allowed and a 35.7% hard hit rate.
Opp wRC+: 92 (24.1 K%, 48 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.62
Ryan Pepiot returns from a full month IL stay, striking out seven of 13 batters in a rehab start last week. Expected him to be limited workload wise. His talented arm (26.7 K%, 71 grade changeup, 118 Stuff+) lacks precision and command consistency (8.8% Barrels/BBE, 9.9% Barrels/BBE, 104 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 111 (20.1 K%, 109 Home, 158 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 2.96
By the numbers, this is a pretty borderline play that I’m supposed to leave alone if Marte isn’t playing, but I don’t think the numbers are capturing all the factors, like Nelson not likely being a four ERA/estimators type pitcher anymore and Pepiot not likely going even twice through the lineup. I’m adjusting and playing F5 -105.
Update 3:40 EST: Marte remains out, 1.72% loss on ARI F5.
Red Sox @ Orioles
This is rumored to be Cooper Criswell, who’s recent work has been coming out of the bullpen over the last three weeks or so. Near elite control (5.7 BB%) and contact management (50.7 GB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 35.1% hard hit rate) are staples of his game with a below average strikeout rate (18.7%) and incredibly strong pitch modeling. All three pitches Criswell throws more than 15% of the time have PitchingBot grades of 60 or above, resulting in a 3.20 Bot ERA. His 105 Stuff+ drops to a 100 Pitching+, which doesn’t make much sense as a command over stuff type by results. A 3.58 xERA is Criswell’s only estimator more than a quarter run removed from his 4.02 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 117 (20.8 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 5.12
I think we just have to accept the strikeout rate is not returning this year. It’s at 22.9% and he’s only struck out more than seven twice, more than six four times. That said, he still has a 5.8 BB% and 30.6% hard contact rate with just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. A 3.11 xERA is less than half a run above his 2.70 ERA. However, contact neutral estimators are above three and half with the truth probably somewhere around three and a half. Pitch modeling is still a believer. Burnes throws four pitches more than 10% of the time and all exceed a 50 PitchingBot grade with it’s belief that the cutter is still elite (43.5%, 1.8 RV/100, 64 PB grade) to go along with 116 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+ marks. If it is Criswell, this will be the second straight game in this series featuring a pair of RHPs with reverse splits.
Opp wRC+: 110 (117 Road)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.91
I’d like to see a F5 line when the Boston pitcher is confirmed. I think Burnes might be over-valued right now, though the problem is that once I get an F5 line it might be adjusted, but I don’t want to play +180 with A) this bullpen or B) Criswell confirmation because it’s unlikely they’re throwing someone better than him.
DFS Notes: An eight game slate features three protected environments, two nearly always closed and one a coin flip. All rain issues are pre-slate on Friday. Weather is universally upper 70s and 80s with light winds. It’s the Padres (6.5) a run and a quarter above the field with three others reaching five implied runs and just two more above four and a half, just four below four runs and one even below three. It’s a solid pitching slate, despite no arms exceeding $10K.
We start in the low to mid-80s with a near double digit wind blowing out to left in Baltimore, the Orioles (4.88) fifth from the top and Red Sox (3.62) fourth from the bottom. Criswell doesn’t offer nearly enough upside in a tough matchup and could be one of the worst values on the board, while Burnes is my third best pitcher overall and fine, but carries the lone $10K price tag on the board. Just realize you’re probably paying more for the workload and quality start hopes than the six strikeouts. Duran, Abreu and Devers each exceed a 140 wRC+ and .260 ISO v RHP plus a 130 wRC+ L30 days. They’re tough to pull off the board even in a tough matchup, especially at lower prices on FD. The Orioles have perfectly middling pen estimators L30 days, but with Cano (21) and Perez (26) going back to back on short pitch counts. Only Rutschman (85) and Holliday (46), among projected O’s, are below a 100 wRC+ v RHP with batters from either side between a .290 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Criswell. Rutschman, Urias and Mountcastle are the only three projected O’s below a 130 wRC+ L30 days and none exceed 91. Still, I had to punt with Urias (101, .145) at 3B to get where I wanted on DK. Boston has the second worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 4;50 EST: A lot happening here. Despite Criswell's reverse split, Red Sox opening with a LHP, which knocks O'Hearn out of the lineup and only adds another RHB (Jimenez). Casas is back and bats third. Borderline value on BOS F5 (+154). Full game has moved too far towards Boston.
Marlins @ Mets
Roddery Munoz against the Mets: 11 IP – 40 BF – 4 H – 1 R – 0 HR – 4 BB – 10 K
Against the rest of the league: very, very bad
Even with those two starts against the Mets, he doesn’t have an estimator below five. He has a single digit K-BB (8.1%) and double digit battel rate (13%). He has terrible pitch modeling with only the sinker (24%, 0.8 RV/100, 47 PB grade) exceeding a 40 Pitching Bot grade. That includes his fastball (26%, -3.6 RV/100) and the Mets murder fastballs (0.44 wFA/C is tied for second best), so the Mets should be better against him. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA with batters from either side at a .380+ xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 108 (110 Home)
DEF: -6 (like Washington, better def since the deadline or minus Chisholm in center)
B30: 3.26
Sean Manaea K/BB last six starts: 9/1, 1/1, 4/4, 11/1, 10/0, 5/3
You’re guess is as good as mine, but it’s probably going to be ethier really great or really awful.
But the Marlins are awful against LHP.
The 1/1 was against the Marlins. Five runs.
Non-FIP estimators are all more than two-thirds of a run, but less than a full run above Manaea’s 3.44 ERA. Manaea throws five different pitches between 8.1% and 18.7% of the time and all are graded below average by PitchingBot. The sinker (38.7%, 1.5 RV/100, 54 PB grade) has been his only consistently quality pitch. And yes the Marlins stink against those (-0.56 wSI/C) because they stink against everything.
Opp wRC+: 75 (79 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.45
DFS Notes: Upper 70s with a near double digit wind out to left, more towards the pole, at Citi, the Mets (5.25) are the top offense outside Coors with the Marlins (3.25) second from the bottom. Maybe third time is the charm against Munoz, who’s a bottom five pitcher for me. Manaea is my fourth best overall and a decent value within $300 of $9K. With RHBs (.277 wOBA, .316 xwOBA) a bit behind LHBs (.341, .329) against Manaea, I have no interest in Miami bats. Mets pen estimators are just outside the top third of the league L30 days with Diaz (36) going two of the last three after not pitching in nearly a week. Maton (26) and Brazoban (27) threw more than 25 pitches yesterday and have worked at least two of the last three. I have no Mets in my single entries, but everyone projected has at least a 98 wRC+ v RHP this year with Bader (.142) the only one below a .150 ISO. Lindor (124, .176) and the resurgent Alonso (119, .203) are my highest ranked Mets. Both, along with McNeil (98, .161) and Vientos (125, .261) exceed a 140 wRC+ L30 days. The latter’s value would rocket up if he remains in the two hole tonight. The Marlins still have the third bet estimators from the pen L30 days, despite the trade off and they’re well rested too.
Update 4:20 EST: Vientos does bat second again. Would now be my second rated Met batter and best value. If you're buying into the Marlins still having a strong bullpen, this line may have climbed too high above +200.
Twins @ Rangers
Impressively, Simeon Woods Richardson struck out seven of 25 Guardians last time out and is up to a 14.1 K-BB%. He’s allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 35.5% hard contact rate and 13 of his 25 barrels game in a six start stretch that began June. Over six starts since then, he’s registered a 16.2 K-BB% with 3.4% Barrels/BBE and a 29.2% hard contact rate. He’s done this with an 11.1 SwStr% (9.8% season). Opponents are swinging more in the zone (74.9%) and making contact less often in the zone (83.3%) over this stretch. The slider has half an inch less vertical movement, but other than that, it must be either pitch sequencing and/or location that’s made the difference because I can find nothing much different about the pitches themselves or how often he uses them overall. The changeup (20.6%, -1.4 RV/100, 66 PB grade) should be his weapon of choice against the Rangers (-0.55 wCH/C is fourth worst in the league).
Opp wRC+: 92 (20 K%) (incl. Thu)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.82
Andrew Heaney has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) over his last 20 innings with a 10.5 K-BB%, but he does have six innings of one run ball against the Astros in there and all three of his bad starts were on the road. When he’s been able to live north with the fastball and south with his slider and changeup, Heaney has had some success (15.7 K-BB%, 7.8% Barrels/BBE on the season). His 4.05 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators except for a 4.68 dERA. Heaney has about a 50 point reverse split this year with LHBs owning a .350 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him. Heaney’s 82 Stuff+ and 98 Pitching+ are the worst marks of his career.
Opp wRC+: 111 (20.9 K%, 99 Road)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.70
DFS Notes: A perfectly even 100 PRF via Statcast (3 year) with the roof closed, both teams sit middle of the board at 4.25 implied runs. In fact, there are only two other offenses between four and four and a half runs. SWR might have some value below $7K on DK, but the Rangers are a bad contact prone offense. Heaney has a little bit of value below $8K as the Twins have a few more strikeouts and large home/road splits. In fact, just three projected Twins exceed a 102 wRC+ on the road this year. Lewis (181 wRC+, .313 ISO v LHP) is my favorite overall Twin, but not a great value at an enormous cost. I actually had to punt my util on FD with Farmer (99, .114), the only other player projected exceeding a 150 wRC+ L30 days besides Lewis. The Texas pen has the fourth worst pen estimators L30 days with Yates (34) going back to back. With SWR’s reverse split (LHBs .268 wOBA, .303 xwOBA), Seager (156, .256) is my only Texas bat of interest. The Minnesota pen has middling estimators L30 days, but Duran (40) has gone back to back.
Update 5:05 EST: Roof closed. MIN leaning into Heaney's reverse split with three LHBs. Swish Analytics has Doug Eddings listed. If accurate, that would be a bump for pitchers.
White Sox @ Astros
It’s not just the workload limitations you have to watch out for anymore because Garrett Crochet has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) over his last 9.1 innings (three starts), striking out just 10 of 50 batters with five walks and six home runs on seven barrels (20%). His velocity is actually up across the board during this stretch, so perhaps he’s over-throwing in shorter outings, potentially defeating the purpose of these workload limitations in the first place. Despite an ERA reaching 3.65 now, Crochet doesn’t have an estimators above three. Both the cutter and fastball (his only two pitches exceeding 10% usage) carry PitchingBot grades near 70 (2.62 Bot ERA), but with just 102 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ marks.
Opp wRC+: 108 (17.9 K%, 117 Home, 135 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -20
B30: 5.13
SpAghetti without meatballs, just strikeouts (25 of his last 45 batters with a 20.7 SwStr%). There was a great article on Fangraphs this week about how Spencer Arrighetti’s thinks about pitching and how it has evolved since his call up. Now up to a 16.9 K-BB% with an average contact profile, all estimators are more than three-quarters of a run below his 5.14 ERA (.331 BABIP). At least six innings in five straight with four quality starts, all of Arrighetti’s PitchingBot grades now exceed 50, but with just 92 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+ scores.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%)
DEF: 3.5
B30: 3.97
DFS Notes: Another perfectly neutral run environment with the roof closed, the Astros (4.75) are sixth from the top with the White Sox (2.75) pulling up the bottom. I don’t have a single top pitcher tonight because there are two that are just about tied and Spencer Arrighetti is one of them. As the slightly cheaper of the two, he may be the slightly better value and my FD pitcher. He’s more easily the best value on DK at $1.3K less. Absolutely no interest in Chicago bats outside of punting with Lopez (106 wRC+ L30 days) if in the leadoff spot. Considering Crochet is struggling and not pitching deep into games by design anyway, while he has the worst bullpen in baseball behind him, Yordan (186 wRC+, .231 ISO v LHP, 201 wRC+ L30 days) looks plenty strong here. He’s actually the only projected Astro exceeding a .190 ISO v LHP this year.
Update 5:20 EST: No roof confirmation yet. It'll be closed though. No Bregman. This line has gotten out of hand. White Sox are up to +230, but I've chosen not to play against the pitcher I have in both of my DFS lineups even if the numbers dictate it. They're probably not weighing Crochet's recent situation heavily enough anyway.
Guardians @ Brewers
Gavin Williams snapped a stretch of three straight starts with at least eight strikeouts last time out, striking out just three Twins, but throwing six innings of one run ball on four hits without a walk. He used his fastball just 41.1% in Minnesota, his lowest rate of the season while throwing his cutter 19.2% the time, his highest rate since his first start (6.2% season). Williams has an impressive 16.8 K-BB% on the season, allowing just 7% Barrels/BBE, but a 44.3% hard contact rate, explaining why his 4.26 xERA is almost in line with a 4.38 ERA while no other estimator reaches four. His 40 points wOBA split turns into a 30 point reverse split by xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 108 (incl Thu)
DEF: 10
B30: 3.60
For seven straight starts, Aaron Civale has alternated two runs or less with four runs or more. If you’re buying into the pattern, this would be a bad start. By non-FIP estimators (4.23 SIERA – 4.39 dERA), he’s nearly as average as his 14.3 K-BB% with 7.8% Barrels/BBE and hard contact rate below four suggests with the 35.2 GB% adding small fractions of a run. However, the home run bug has resulted in a 4.91 FIP matching 5.02 ERA with 23 of 28 barrels leaving the yard. Batters from either side exceed a .340 wOBA, but are below a .330 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 95 (19.1 K%)
DEF: 13.5
B30: 3.58
DFS Notes: A 96 park run factor with the roof closed increases to 98 with it open on average, the biggest boost to right-handed power in those situations, the Brewers and Guardians are tied for the fifth lowest team totals (4.0) on Friday’s slate. I think Williams has enough upside to be a decent value and he might be my fifth best overall arm. Without Yelich, the quality, if not quantity, of LHB in this lineup takes a hit. Mentioned above about Williams owning an odd split, Chourio (122 wRC+, .208 ISO v RHP, 178 wRC+ L30 days) is pretty much where my Milwaukee lineup interest starts and ends, though Contreras (125, .190, 157) is a decent catching option. At less than $7K Civale may give you enough to get by in a low upside spot, but at a high risk for not much reward. With batters from either side within two points of a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him, but below a .330 xwOBA, Kwan (136, .157, 101) is the most interesting Guardian where the best bats are pretty costly. Both bullpens are just inside the top third of the league L30 days by estimators. Clase has had to days off after four in a row, while Williams (23) has worked back to back with low pitch counts.
Update 6:20 EST: Roof closed (rain). In fact, all three roofs confirmed closed now.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
Justin Wrobleski has been mentioned, but not confirmed. A 10 K-BB% with 13.8% Barrels/BBE through four starts, he features a 4.05 ERA that’s nearly a run below contact neutral estimators with contact inclusive ones above five. The 22 LHBs he’s faced exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs at .291 and .322. Just 28.1% of his contact has been on the ground. The fastball (59.7%, 3.1 RV/100, 59 PB grade) is the only pitch he’s thrown more than 44 times. Wrobleski has been held below 85 pitches in all four of his starts.
Opp wRC+: 83 (20.3 K%, 8.1 HR/FB, 100 Home) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.78
Miles Mikolas has allowed 20 runs over his last 25.1 innings with just an 8.8 K-BB% (12.1% season). He’s still a great control pitcher (4 BB%), who doesn’t allow a ton of barrels (7.1%), but his penchant for smothering hard contact is disappearing (41.2%) with a low strikeout rate (16.1%). No estimators are within three-quarters of a run of his 5.30 ERA (63.8 LOB%), but all are above four with a SIERA, dERA and xERA around four and a half. Batters from either side are between a .322 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Mikolas’s 88 Stuff+ still works up to a 102 Pitching+ with all PitchingBot grades above 50 (3.70 Bot ERA) in some optimistic pitch modeling results.
Opp wRC+: 113 (109 Road)
DEF: -1
B30: 4.16
DFS Notes: Mid-80s with a light wind out to right-center, the Dodgers (5.02) are third from the top with the Cardinals (4.48) middle of the board. No interest in either pitcher here, assuming Wrobleski. It’s hard to find poor values in the Dodger lineup, though Smith (98 wRC+, .164 ISO v RHP) and Rojas (97, .107) might qualify. Ohtnai (191, .378) is a top bat. Lux (101, .137) might be the best value. He has a projected lineup leading 195 wRC+ L30 days, though is just one of two projected below a 110 wRC+ on the road this year. The Cardinals have bottom half of the league pen estimators L30 days, but are well rested. Mentioned above, Wrobleski’s reverse split and the Cardinals’ struggles against LHP. Winn (112, .214), Contreras (163, .254) and Pham (133, .227) are most interesting here and three of five projected Cardinals exceeding a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days with Goldy and Arenado being the others, though none reach 120. The Dodgers have pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:30 EST: Wrobleski confirmed.
Padres @ Rockies
Does the knuckleball knuckle in Coloardo? Matt Waldron threw it 33% in his first start there in April (39.2%) season, adding a few more sliders (26.4% game, 19.9% season) on his way to six innings of one run ball with four hits, three walks and five strikeouts. We know one thing that doesn’t work in Colorado and that’s the home team’s offense. With a 15.1 K-BB%, Waldron has been a strong contact manager (6.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.6% hard hit rate), but has been the victim of a 66.8 LOB% over his eight starts, driving his ERA above five over that span, despite a 14.7 K-BB% and 37.3% hard contact rate. On the season, contact neutral estimators exceed his 4.00 ERA with contact inclusive ones below it, but all within half a run.
Opp wRC+: 84 (25.8 K%, 89 Home) (inc. Thu)
DEF: -8
B30: 2.91
Cal Quantrill’s 4.56 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators. Batters from either side are between a .325 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him and that’s enough on him.
Opp wRC+: 116 (17.7 K%, 109 Road)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.44
DFS Notes: Upper 80s with a light wind in from left-center, perhaps I should mention that the Rockies (5.0) are fourth on the board, though I’m not extremely interested in high priced home bats here with Doyle (108 wRC+, .217 ISO v RHP), Tovar (96, .184) and Blackmon (84, .140) rating best. Only Cave, Rodgers and Toglia reach even a 90 wRC+ L30 days though. The Padres have the best pen estimators over the last month. I feel like Waldron is adequately priced here. It’s all about stacking dem Padres. I’ve rostered Cronenworth (130, .204), Arraez (115, .082) and Profar (142, .177) on FanDuel. Arraez, Profar, Merrill (144, .209) and Peralta (116, .173) on Draftkings. That’s just the way the numbers worked out. Everyone looks good here. The Rockies have the sixth worst pen estimators L30 days.
Update 5:40 EST: Line movement towards Rockies. Forecast temp drop a couple degrees to mid-80s.
Braves @ Angels
I questioned whether Spencer Schwellenbach might be over-matched with an aggressive promotion after just 13 innings at the AA level, but it’s actually major league hitters that have been over-matched by him. SS has struck out 36 of his last 100 batters with just two walks. He now has a 22.6 K-BB% with just 4.6% Barrels/BBE. His 3.95 ERA comes without an estimator reaching three and a half. While LHBs have had some success against him (.317 wOBA, .306 xwOBA) that’s not an issue against the Angels and RHBs have been held to a .260 wOBA and .241 xwOBA. All PItchingBot grades are 55 or higher with a 99 Stuff+ working up to a 107 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 89 (93 Home, 79 L7 days) (incl. Thu)
DEF: -13.5
B30: 3.57
With just an 11.1 K-BB%, Jose Soriano generates 59.4% of his contact on the ground, which is how he’s able to maintain 6.8% Barrels/BBE with a 44.7% hard contact rate. Estimators ranging from a 3.67 dERA to a 4.12 xERA exceed his 3.36 ERA with a .265 BABIP and seven unearned runs. Soriano has quality starts with one run or less in four of his last five and has struck out 13 of his last 48 with just three walks. Batters from the right side have a .342 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him with LHBs more than 30 points lower. Soriano is perfectly average by Stuff+ (100) and Pitching+ (99) with a 4.30 Bot ERA slightly exceeding all of his estimators.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.8 K%, 95 Road, 127 L7 days)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.40
DFS Notes: Mid-70s with a light wind out to left, the Braves (4.41) are middle of the board with the Angels (3.59) are third from the bottom. I’m all aboard the Spencer Scharrighettibach monster on DraftKings, if you haven’t figured out who my other number one was. With top quarter of the league pen estimators over the last 30 days behind him, I have no interest in the Angels offensively. On the other side, Soriano is too low upside in a marginal spot for me. Riley (119 wRC+, .208 ISO v RHP) and Ozuna (156, .301) are my top ranked Braves, Murphy (104, .168) a solid catcher value. Atlanta bats are heating up with all projected above a 100 wRC+ L30 days, except for Kelenic (68), among those with more than 10 PA. The Angels have bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days.
Top Three Pitchers
1 & 2 - The Spencers (Arrighetti & Schwellenbach)
3 - Corbin Burnes
4 - Sean Manaea
Top Overall Bats
1 - Shohei Ohtani
2 - Jurickson Profar
3 - Jackson Merrill
4 - Luis Arraez
5 - Jake Cronenworth
Top Bat Values
1 - David Peralta
2 - Luis Arraez
3 - Ryan O'Hearn (FD especially)
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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