I joked about it, but didn't really believe that posting the graph capturing an 18 unit upswing would actually be a jinx. Well, if Milwaukee holds a one run lead over the Dodgers for one more inning, it'll be 7-11 for a 6.16 unit downswing. Since posting that graphs it's been back to the land of blown leads and extra inning losses. I've learned my lesson. No more graphs until the end of the season.
Seven games on Thursday, mostly during the day. Here they all are below, but no daily fantasy notes. Four dogs, one pick'em. I feel good about it.
All stats through Tuesday. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Athletics @ Mets
We’re at a point now where over three-quarters of Mitch Spence’s innings have come in a starting role so we can dispense (see what I did there?) with splitting his season in analyzing him. He’s been pretty average in most ways (12.3 K-BB%, 8% Barrels/BBE, 41.9% hard contact rate) with batters from either side between a .297 and .331 wOBA and xwOBA. It’s boring, but it’s fine. There is something that pops up in the pitch modeling though and that’s his slider (34.3%, 0.4 RV/100) and he’s facing a Mets’ offense that struggles against such pitches (-0.33 wSL/C).
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -22.5
B30: 3.36
Jose Quintana struck out eight of 27 Mariners with just two walks, but hung around a bit too long and had five runs charged to his account over 6.2 innings. He’s had some strong starts like that one, but more often than not, a high strand rate has been bailing him out of more marginal ones. Eight runs over his last 11.2 innings with a 51.5 LOB% brings his 4.10 ERA and estimators ranging from a 4.50 xFIP to a 4.91 xERA closer together. His peripherals (10.5 K-BB%) are worse than Spence with a similar contact profile (7.2% Barrels/BBE, 40.2% hard contact rate) with just three points separating them in ground ball rate. Quintana, however, doesn’t have a PB grade exceeding 48 with 83 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ marks, compared to Spence at 100 and 101 respectively.
Opp wRC+: 111 (15.6 K%, 93 Road)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.49
I think we’ve established that Spence has been the slightly better pitcher, whereas we have similar pen estimators too. The A’s have an awful defense, so then the question becomes is the loss of Rooker, along with that defensive disadvantage when that would otherwise be the only real NUM edge? I think +150 is still far too high. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 12:30 EST: Mid-80s with a light breeze in from left. Nimmo out. Rooker still paterned. 1.54% loss on OAK ML.
Mariners @ Tigers
Bryce Miller road starts: 8.8 K-BB%, .320 xwOBA, 5.51 FIP, 4.88 xFIP
The park helps keep some of his barrels in the park, but it doesn’t make the 14 point difference in his home and road K-BB%. Left-handed batters have a .299 wOBA against him, but that increases to .343 on the road. Twelve of his 16 home runs have been surrendered on the road. Overall, all estimators exceed Miller’s 3.46 ERA, but only a 4.06 xERA (10.6% Barrels/BBE) runs above four. Pitch modeling loves him (111 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) with PitchingBot grades exceeding 60 on the fastball (43.1%) and splitter (16.9%). Too bad we can’t get home/road splits on those.
Opp wRC+: 92 (119 L7days)
DEF: -3.5
B30: 3.90
This could be another Kenta Maeda bulking opportunity. He’s gone anywhere from two to five innings in five of these, striking out 16 of 76 batters with only one walk, four barrels and a 39% hard contact rate. It’s been better than his starting attempts. All of Maeda’s estimators are above four and a half this year and while the run values are awful for his just about all of his pitches, it’s really the fastball (24.3%, -3.3 RV/100, 37 PB grade) that’s the source of most of the frustration. The splitter (30.1%, -0.9 RV/100, 56 PB grade) is better than it’s performed, but probably does not pair well with his batting practice fastball at this point.
Opp wRC+: 98 (28.4 K%)
DEF: 14
B30: 4.23
This is a pretty hefty line for someone who has really struggled on the road. He does have two straight road quality starts, but one was the White Sox and he struck out just one Padre in the other one. With a better defense, nearly comparable offense and bullpen, I’ll side slightly with the Tigers no matter who’s pitching because it’s not like it can be someone much worse than Maeda.
Update 12:40 EST: Low 80s with a light wind in from center. Canzone in for Julio. Vierling out, odd looking Detroit lineup with Dingler hitting cleanup. Faedo opens for Detroit. After that ??
Dodgers @ Brewers
Jack Flaherty’s second start for the Dodgers did not result in a quality start. In fact, he pitched 5.2 innings for the fourth time in seven starts. He allowed four earned runs (or more) for the fourth time this year. He allowed multiple home runs for the third time. But he also struck out at least 10 for the thir time. The velocity was at 93 mph for the second straight start (93.5 season, 93.1 last 10 starts or since his back trouble started). I can’t say he’s entirely healthy right now (the Yankees backed out due to medicals), but I can’t say it’s negatively affected his performance much…except for one aspect. Flaherty has allowed 10 of his 22 barrels (7.5%) over his last six starts (10.8% Barrels/BBE) without much of a chance in hard contact rate overall. The FIP is up to 3.12 and the xERA 3.02, the first two estimators to eclipse three or his 2.97 ERA in quite a while. For a guy who’s been as dominant as he has, Flaherty has some pretty pedestrian pitch modeling numbers. A 56 grade fastball (41.5%, 0.9 RV/100) is his highest PitchingBot grade, while his 96 Stuff+ works up to a 104 Pitching+, suggesting he’s a command (4.5 BB%) over stuff (32.1 K%) type of pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 109 (107 Home)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.83
Tobias Myers does not have a single estimator within a run of his 2.79 ERA (3.89 xERA – 4.22 dERA), but that does not mean he’s not doing some impressive things. Dude had a 35+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs and he’s got a 16 K-BB% with a hard hit rate below 40% through 17 major league starts. That’s worth some praise, even if he, like Flaherty, does not have exemplary pitch grades (4.47 Bot ERA< 91 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 114 (111 Road)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 3.74
Update 12:45 EST: Roof closed (rain). No Mookie. Line has moved towards Brewers.
Braves @ Giants
Great control, tons of weak ground balls and enough strikeouts used to be a consistent staple of Max Fried performances. The contact profile is still intact (58.8 GB%, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.3% hard hit rate), but the rest of it is just chaotic. He’s struck out nine of more three times, but also fewer than five in 40% of his starts. Though, despite the erratic way he’s gotten there, the 22.7 K% is fairly close to his career average. It’s the 8.7 BB% that’s more than three points above his last three years and getting worse while walking 15 of his last 127 batters. He has the same 96 Stuff+ as last year and a slightly better Bot ERA (4.09). Even going through the plate discipline profile, I can’t see anything that jumps out. His Zone rate and F-Strike rate are both higher than the last two years. It’s just strange. Maybe he’s pitching through injury in his walk year? Anyway, all estimators are within one-fifth of a run of his 3.56 ERA.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 11.5
B30: 3.51
Logan Webb has allowed two runs over his last 21.2 innings and for you younger folks, that’s three starts and used to be a normal number of innings pitched for such back in the day. Forty-eight percent of his starts have been super quality starts (at least seven innings with less than three runs and I don’t know whether I just made that up or not). The 14.4 K-BB% is just league average and has been up and down throughout the year, but it’s the ground balls that go with it (56.2%) that keep his contact neutral estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.32 ERA. I said contact neutral, because FIP in San Francisco has a lot to do with the park and only 20% of Webb’s barrels have left the park this year. That’s only a 7.4% Barrels/BBE, but he’s also allowed 46.9% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or worse. And there’s your 4.20 xERA. Webb has much more impressive pitch modeling than Fried though (3.28 Bot ERA, 112 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+). He throws two pitches more than 30% of the time and both (slider, changeup) exceed a 60 PitchingBot grade.
Opp wRC+: 95 (24.8 K% - Harris back though)
DEF: 4
B30: 3.49
Even with Harris back and some of the Atlanta bats starting to click, I think San Francisco is still the superior offense against LHP. Giving San Francisco home field edge and a small pitching one too, I think they should be larger favorites than -110 here.
Update 1:20 EST: No Soler. 1.11% gain on SF.
Red Sox @ Orioles
Nick Pivetta has allowed a pair of home runs in three straight starts on only three combined barrels. That’s quite the feat. On the season, he’s allowed 19 home runs on 24 barrels (9.6%) and that’s still too many barrels, but with a 24 K-BB% and sub-40% hard hit rate, it doesn’t hurt as much. In fact, despite a 4.44 ERA, the FIP is his only estimator above four and within three-quarters of a run of actual results. The strikeouts are a bit volatile with eight or more in 50% of his starts, but five or fewer in eight of 18. Pitch modeling still thinks Pivetta is the nastiest man in baseball with PitchingBot grades starting at 57 for everything he throws more than 10% of the time, resulting in a 3.09 Bot ERA to go along with his 135 Stuff+ and 109 Pitching+ metrics.
Opp wRC+: 116 (20.8 K%, 119 Home)
DEF: -12
B30: 5.05
Zach Eflin starts his Baltimore career with three straight quality starts (19.1 IP – 5 ER) and seven strikeouts in two of the three with Cleveland being the exception. The Orioles have him throwing a few more changeups and cutters, but the differences are small enough that they could have been matchup based. Eflin is having another solid season, but not as spectacular as last year. A 3.83 ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators except a 3.30 xERA, allowing 6.5% Barrels/BBE with a 35.7% hard hit rate. Eflin suffers a five point drop in Stuff+ from last year, but a 104 Pitching+ is only two points lower and those numbers have somehow decreased to 89 and 101 since the trade. His 3.88 Bot ERA with the O’s is also much higher than his season 3.50 Bot ERA. Both of these pitchers have reverse splits this year, but will likely be facing predominantly left-handed lineups.
Opp wRC+: 110 (117 Road)
DEF: 2.5
B30: 3.94
I want no part of a bullpen battle between these two teams, but they’re pretty even offensively and on the mound otherwise and I consider Pivetta’s volatility a potential positive in dog situations (+122 F5).
Update 5:20 EST: Game line moved towards Baltimore, but 2.12% gain on BOS F5. Refsnyder gets the start (bats third) against RHP w/ reverse split, but they sit another RHB Sogard to get him there. Still seven LHBs for each team.
Nationals @ Phillies
I dissected Mitchell Parker’s rookie season into three parts prior to his last outing:
First eight starts: 16.9 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE, 46.9 GB%.
Next eight starts: 12.8 K-BB%, 8.8% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 GB%
Last four starts: 4.4 K-BB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE, 29.5 GB%
He saw that and ruined the narrative with a 17.9 K-BB% against the Angels (but still a 27.3 GB%). He did allow just six hard hit batted balls in that game to drop his season hard contact rate back under 40% though. His 3.83 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.96 FIP to a 4.71 dERA, but that’s more about seven unearned runs with just a 69.6 LOB%. Pitch modeling is not very notable. He brings an 88 Stuff+ mark up to a 98 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 120 (113 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.43
Zach Wheeler has nine super quality starts (seven innings with less than three runs) and has only failed to produce a quality start six times in 23 tries this year. With a 19.9 K-BB% and 33% hard contact rate, there are only a couple of things we can nitpick here. One is that his estimators (2.99 xERA – 3.59 dERA) are all above his 2.78 ERA (.245 BABIP, 79.1 LOB%). The second is that LHBs have a .319 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against him. The dude has great stuff, but he’s throwing his 67 fastball or 64 grade sinker nearly 60% of the time. The slider (66) is his only other pitch above a 50 PB grade, which means that what he’s trying to get lefties out with is either a below average pitch or something that plays better against same-handed batters.
Opp wRC+: 97 (20.4 K%)
DEF: 11
B30: 4.30
This is another one of those situations where one team can have all the edges and the line might still be a bit high. I view Wheeler as a full run better than Parker, neither as strong as their estimators. The Phillies have a decent offensive edge as well, though the Nationals have done a decent job of staying competitive with the bats. Something else to mention is that the Nationals are now putting a better defensive team on the field too. The projected lineup is +5 Fielding Run Value (although they have some guys who have just debuted) and there’s not much of a gap between the bullpens. I feel like we’re getting to the time of the year where books are beginning to over-value favorites with football players coming back and dabbling, much more likely to play favorites than dogs. (That last part is just a loose theory though.).
Update 5:50 EST: Small 1.01% gain on WAS.
Twins @ Rangers
Bailey Ober has been breathing fire as of late. Four runs over his last 28 innings with a 23.8 K-BB%. He has a 26.1 K-BB% over his last nine starts and is up to 21.2% on the season. He’s gone at least six innings in all those nine starts, at least seven in four. Estimators are all within one third of a run of his 3.52 ERA. Pitching Bot grades on all three pitches he throws more than 20% of the time exceed 50, including an elite changeup (26.2%, 1.6 RV/100, 69 PB grade). The Rangers are the fourth worst offense against changeups (-0.51 wCH/C).
Opp wRC+: 91 (20.2 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.89
Cody Bradford returned from a long IL stint to allow eight runs over 5.2 innings with all three of his barrels (15.8%) leaving the park against the Cardinals and Red Sox. He did strikeout seven of 28 batters though and things turned around against the Yankees last time out. Bradford struck out seven of 20 without a walk and just one run over five innings in the Bronx. He’s up to 30 innings on the season with a 22.7 K-BB%. And if estimators ranging from a 3.24 FIP to a 3.82 dERA are too small sample for you, all three pitches he throws more than five percent of the time have a PitchingBot grade of at least 55, though his 93 Stuff+ and 97 Pitching+ marks leave something to be desired.
Opp wRC+: 112 (21 K%)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.78
Update 5:55 EST: Roof closed. No Buxton again. No Seager.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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