There are still a number of unconfirmed pitching spots and in a couple of places, I don't even have a clue. This shit his hard enough when you do know who's pitching. And on top of that, we're dealing with a ton of small sample sizes. I'm counting seven or eight spots with a pitcher who has five or fewer starts this year and then there are a few coming off the IL or whatnot with a large gap since their last start. I'm not going to get to daily fantasy notes on Wednesday, but will try to finish up on overall notes and clean it up as much as possible.
Stats are through Monday with a Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Royals @ Twins
It’s been seven starts since Cole Ragans last averaged more than 95 mph in a game, yet his season rate still sits at 95.6 mph (94.5 over this stretch). His 18.3 K-BB% is slightly lower than his season mark (20.6%), though the contact profile remains strong.
Opp wRC+: 111 (21 K%, 126 Home)
DEF: 25.5
B30: 4.10
Maybe Louis Varland?
Opp wRC+: 100 (18.5 K%, 88 Road, 117 L7 days)
DEF: 6.5
B30: 3.85
Update 12:50 EST: This is going to be Varland.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Three starts on the road, all in extremely negative run environments, but against quality offenses (Giants, Mets, Padres), along with two at home and Tanner Gordon posts a respectable 17.9 K-BB% by walking just three. After allowing six home runs on five barrels in his first two starts, none of his last three have with a perfectly fine 38.8% hard hit rate overall. In this small sample, Gordon has a 150 point xwOBA split and over 200 wOBA one and it favors RHBs. I wonder what the Diamondbacks will do here with Walker out and perhaps Marte still as well. The pitch modeling is not bad. A 4.30 Bot ERA isn’t too much below average, while an 89 Stuff+ works up to a 100 Pitching+ and PitchingBot grades between 44 and 56.
Opp wRC+: 110 (20.2 K%, 117 Home, 160 L7 days)
DEF: 7.5
B30: 4.11
Jordan Montgomery has an ERA above six with his best estimators a 4.61 FIP. The 6.1 K-BB% is a killer, even if he is still managing contact reasonably well (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 41.9% hard contact rate). Batters from the right side (the Rockies have a lot of them) have a .391 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against him this year. Montgomery carries a 4.78 Bot ERA with a 42 grade sinker (32.5%, -2.4 RV/100) being the primary culprit and the only pitch the Rockies have a positive run value against (0.08 wSI/C is top third of the league). Montgomery’s 94 Stuff+ stays at a 95 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 82 (27.2 K%, 15.2 HR/FB, 79 Road)
DEF: 11
B30: 3.66
You’re giving me a potentially competent pitcher against Montgomery at +190?? Keeping in mind that this is an average offense against LHP without Walker and Marte, I just don’t see the huge edge here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for earlier info dumps.
Update 2:15 EST: A 2.56% gain on COL despite sitting McMahon, Blackmon and Diaz against the lefty.
Pirates @ Padres
Mitch Keller has an uncharacteristic 10.5 BB% over his last five starts (9.5 K-BB%), while a 14.7 K-BB% on the season continues to suggest he’s a perfectly average pitcher with estimators ranging from a 3.90 FIP to a 4.19 dERA, all more than one-third of a run higher than his 3.56 ERA. Stuff+…guess what? 100. Pitching+? 100 too. PitchingBot grardes? 48 to 57. Batters from either side? Between a .298 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA. Everything is average.
Opp wRC+: 117 (17.8 K%, 116 Home, 130 L7 days)
DEF: -11
B30: 4.43
Martin Perez has struck out 13 of 47 batters for the Padres. Calm down. It was the Rockies and Marlins. Revenge game! Does Perez even remember pitching for the Pirates? The Pirates would like to forget. Estimators all within one third of a run of a 4.78 ERA, except for a 5.49 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE. A 4.95 Bot ERA and one of the worst Stuff+ marks in the league (73) tell us everything else we need to know, except that RHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 97 (25.2 K%)
DEF: -8
B30: 3.16
So the San Diego bullpen is a problem for what I have in mind, but everything else works out. Two poor defenses, one great offense, the other nearly average against LHP, one terrible pitcher and one over-valued one. This park should play slightly more hitter friendly during the day too. Enough for an over (8.5 -115).
Update 2:25 EST: Weather cooperating (80 degrees with a near double digit wind out to right), but lineups aren't (Cruz, McCutchen & Kim out). Total has actually dropped half a run.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Dane Dunning hasn’t started a game in almost exactly two months, but did face 20 batters (61 pitches) just a week ago. He’s not confirmed, but considering LHBs exceed a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him, the Rangers should probably be looking towards other options.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 22.5
B30: 4.81
Six innings, four hits and a single run against Houston means Tanner Hock’s problems are over? Not quite. He struck out one with three walks and has a 0 K-BB% over his last 32.1 innings. He’s still limiting barrels and generating ground balls (55.5%), but with just a 14.8 K-BB% now, estimators are rising, though none are yet at four.
Opp wRC+: 90 (20.1 K%)
DEF: 12
B30: 5.00
This feels like an over at anything less than 10 and FanDuel currently has 9.5 at even money, but what if the Rangers throw a lefty instead? Dunning is just a best guestimate at this point.
Nationals @ Orioles
I’m still not sure what to make of DJ Herz with 31 of his 63 strikeouts coming in just three of his 11 starts. He’s totaled just one of his 16 walks in those three starts too, so they’re obviously skewing his numbers, but they also count. With nine of 14 barrels leaving the yard, his 4.16 FIP is closes to a 4.41 ERA with all other estimators more than two-thirds of a run better than actual results. Pitch modeling doesn’t seem to love Herz either (4.81 Bot ERA, 93 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 120 (119 Home)
DEF: -6.5
B30: 4.51
I do know what to make of Dean Kremer and the Orioles need to stop trying to make him a thing or at least make him a thing out of the bullpen. His 4.70 ERA is within half a run of estimators that don’t reach a quarter of a run below actual results with 10.8% Barrels/BBE. Batters from the left side exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him with similar pitch modeling to Herz (4.57 Bot ERA, 87 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+). I don’t get the last of those numbers with a 9.8 BB%.
Opp wRC+: 96 (20.4 K%)
DEF: -0.5
B30: 4.08
The Nats are meeting the bottom of the Baltimore rotation here and with weighted estimators telling me Herz is nearly a run better, I don’t necessarily believe that, but for +140 F5, I just have to believe he’s probably better than Kremer at all.
Update 4:05 EST: No movement on WAS F5 (0.35% gain).
Cubs @ Guardians
Despite a 3.76 xERA (36.3% hard hit rate) his only estimator not more than half a run above his 3.50 ERA (14.3 K-BB%, seven unearned runs), Jameson Taillon has some exceptional secondary pitch modeling grades, the most interesting one here being his cutter (23.9%, 2.6 RV/100, 65 PB grade). The Guardians are the worst offense in the majors against cutters (-1.21 wFC/C).
Opp wRC+: 96 (19.2 K%, 110 Home, 87 L7 days)
DEF: 12
B30: 3.39
One walk, one home run, one strikeout and a 1.2 SwStr% in Alex Cobb’s first start against the Twins. Want a big number to go with all those ones? How above a 63.2% hard hit rate. Projections still average around three and a quarter runs per nine. Velocity was down a bit, but pitch modeling absolves the results (109 Stuff+, 56 PB grade on the splitter).
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 10
B30: 3.57
Will Clase pitch a fifth game in a row?
Mariners @ Tigers
I guess Bryan Woo is finally healthy with 180 pitches over his last two starts and 13.2 innings with just three runs, a walk and 13 strikeouts. With an amazing contact profile (31.8% hard hit rate, 2% Barrels/BBE), his 2.28 xERA matches his 2.27 ERA with all other non-FIP estimators more than a run and a half higher. He has just a 19.2 K%, but with a 2.7 BB%! A 75 grade sinker and 60 grade four-seamer make up about 75% of his pitches thrown. The Tigers are a bottom five offense against four-seamers, but absolute the worst against sinkers.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -6
B30: 3.83
I have no idea who’s pitching for the Tigers. MLB.com has it TBD because nobody works there anymore, while Roster Resource has a different reliever listed every time I’ve checked, which probably means bullpen game? RR has Kenta Maeda listed for Thursday’s bulk experience.
Opp wRC+: ?? (lots of Ks)
DEF: 10
B30: 4.12
Update 1 EST: Bo Brieske is going to start. His last appearance was his third start, lasting 10 batters and 49 pitches. I'm not sure if this means they're stretching him out or just going full on bullpen game.
Cardinals @ Reds
If there’s a picture in a dictionary above fourth starter, it would have to be Kyle Gibson. There haven’t been many times in his career where he’s been a number three or two on a team that was expected to go somewhere, but he’s made a long, successful career of being a number four. Estimators between a 4.01 FIP and 4.84 xERA, but LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. No PitchingBot grades reach 50, thought the curveball (8.6%), the pitch with the worst run value (-2.5 RV/100), reaches it.
Opp wRC+: 90 (25 K%)
DEF: -6
B30: 4.30
RR, DK and FD all have Carson Spiers listed. MLB.com just listed Emilio Pagan, which is probably an opener situation? Spiers has estimators ranging from a 3.81 xERA to a 4.25 xFIP and dERA with 43.1 of 62.2 innings in a starting role, but no outings of fewer than three innings. Statcast (xwOBA) drops his 100 point split to under 20.
Opp wRC+: 103 (93 Road)
DEF: -11
B30: 3.51
Marlins @ Phillies
Seven innings of four hit ball without a run against the Padres in Edward Cabrera’s last start. The four strikeouts and three walks can be forgiven against that lineup. The crazy thing is that the ERA is dropping as estimators are rising. His 5.20 ERA is trying to meet non-FIP estimators that range from a 3.80 xFIP to a 4.59 xERA with 10 of his 14 barrels leaving the yard. He strikes out an impressive 28.2%, but with double digit walk (12.8%) and barrel (10%) rates and a 46.4% hard contact rate. Batters from the left-hand side have a .352 wOBA and .376 xwOBA against him, but those numbers were both above .400 around a month ago. The fastball (23.9%, -3.8 RV/100, 31 PB grade) is not inherently bad, but the problem is that he has to come over the plate with it because he gets behind too often or he can’t find the plate with it. A 104 Stuff+ mark works down to a 99 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -11
B30: 3.36
Since his four hit shutout of Cleveland, Tyler Phillips has allowed 12 runs over 6.2 innings with as many walks (four) as strikeouts in road starts against the Dodgers and Mariners. He has just a 34.7% hard contact rate, but has allowed 12 barrels (12.6%). Contact neutral estimators are between four and four and a half with inclusive ones like a 5.17 xERA nearly meeting his 4.83 ERA. Batters from the right side have at least a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Pitch grades between 44 and 53, along with a 95 Stuff+ working up to a 99 Pitching+ suggests modest upside.
Opp wRC+: 87 (78 Road)
DEF: 9.5
B30: 4.96
So it’s been a couple of weeks since the deadline and the Marlins still have the third worst pen estimators over the last 30 days, while the Phillies are floundering at third worst. Let’s call the starting pitching volatile, but even. I don’t think the Phillies make up enough on offense and defense to cause a line like this (Marlins +172), even if we don’t want to give the Marlins full credit for their bullpen numbers.
Update 4 EST: Turner out of the lineup and a 4.56% gain on MIA.
Astros @ Rays
It appears I did forget one game. Embarrassed, but not surprised given the pitching chaos this week, but this one was official last night. Just not very interesting. Blanco has a 3.02 ERA that’s not within a run of any of his estimators. I suppose I could reiterate the Seth Lugo rant from earlier in the week here about an average pitcher outperforming and the oncoming regression, but suffice to say, outside a 58 grade changeup (24.4%), there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that Blanco is an above average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 93 (24.2 K%, 63 L7 days)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.96
Zach Littell has a 4.01 that’s within one-third of a run of all of his estimators, including a 4.00 SIERA (none go below four). He has the same estimators as Blanco. Littell just goes about it differently with elite control (4.5 BB%). Both have barrel rates near 10%, despite hard contact rates not reaching 40%. Littell does have more interesting pitch grades, including an elite splitter (22.9%, 68 PB grade), despite a poor run value (-1.1 RV/100). While LHBs have a .336 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against him, that shouldn’t be much of an issue outside of one guy here.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.3 K%, 164 L7 days)
DEF: 4.5
B30: 2.97
Update 4:40 EST: I have Blanco very close to his K prop (6.5 +135). Missing bats is not the problem (24.5 K%, 13.4 SwStr%) and I have him at 22.5 BF here (average of season batters faced per game with double weight on last five). Diaz (17.5%) is the only batter in the TB lineup below a 22.1 K% v RHP this year. Junior is the unknown (21.2 K% at AAA, but struck out three of four PA in his debut).
Athletics @ Mets
Since an eight run blowup in Boston prior to the break, Joey Estes has allowed nine runs (eight earned) in 25.1 innings. His 12.2 K-BB% is close enough to average to have some value, but the 9.4% Barrels/BBE are a concern. The crazy thing is that 23 of his 24 barrels have been surrendered in just nine of his 15 starts with multiple barrels in all nine. Estimators are all over the place (4.35 xERA – 6.22 dERA), while LHBs hit him well (.338 wOBA, .369 xwOBA), but there is some optimism in the pitch modeling, including a 68 grade sweeper (20.9%, 2 RV/100) and 53 grade heater (54.3%, 0.6 RV/100), the foundation of a 3.59 Bot ERA with a 94 Stuff+ working up to a 106 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -22
B30: 3.40
David Peterson can’t sustain his 81.5 LOB%. He’s keeping the ball on the ground (52.6%), but nothing else (7.8 K-BB%, 8.2% Barrels/BBE, 43.3% hard contact rate). His estimators range from a 4.45 FIP to a 4.69 SIERA if you don’t count the 5.42 xERA. Peterson’s pitch modeling tells a different story from Estes with his best graded pitch (51) a curveball he throws just 6.9% of the time. He has a 4.90 Bot ERA with a 94 Stuff+ staying at a 95 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 113 (15.6 HR/FB)
DEF: 3
B30: 3.49
I’ve been a previous believer in Peterson, but despite the ERA, he’s having the worst performance of his career and I know traditionalists will fight me on this until his ERA blows up like Lugo’s. That strand rate is just not something anyone has ever done over a long run and that doesn’t necessarily mean just a season. Still, where is the major edge for the Mets here? It’s not the offense. It’s not the bullpen. The A’s (+160) are getting far too much here.
Update 4:50 EST: FML no Rooker! Losing 2.76% on OAK, it certainly doesn't kill the value, but it doesn't help their odds of winning. A LHB (Butler) added too. Peterson has a 22 point reverse split, but 45 point standard split by xwOBA. Bader gets the day off with NYM adding a fifth LHB in Gamel, before he's shipped out when Marte is activated soon.
Yankees @ White Sox
Will Warren has allowed 12 runs over 9.2 innings, striking out 12 of 47 Angels and Phillies with a 9.5 SwStr% with five walks, two home runs on three barrels (10.3%) and a 48.3% hard contact rate. The 50 Future Value prospect (Fangraphs) has a 70 grade slider (Fangraphs) and an 18.8 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts, but a 23.7 HR/FB. In 19 AAA starts last year, Warren had a 22.1 HR/FB. He’s allowed 33 home runs in 195.1 innings at AAA. Current projections average out slightly below four and a half runs per nine, which is about a quarter run better than his underlying performance through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24 K%, 77 Home, 114 L7 days) (Incl. Tue)
DEF: 10.5
B30: 4.31
Davis Martin has allowed five runs over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 54 batters (10.1 SwStr%), walking seven (9.3 K-BB%) with just one of five barrels (14.7%) leaving the park and a 41.2% hard contact rate overall. His average projection is about exactly as he has performed, around a quarter run below five. He has a 10.5 K-BB% over 75.2 career innings.
Opp wRC+: 124 (10.3 K-BB%, 16.2 HR/FB, 120 Road, 136 L7days)
DEF: -20
B30: 5.10
With Warren projecting just one-third of a run better than Martin and performing almost exactly the same in his small sample, I’m not sure what he’s done (including his home run issues at AAA) that qualifies him to be a two to one road favorite here. The White Sox embarrassed the Yankees in the first game and were just a few Juan Soto walks and a big ninth inning hit away from winning the second game. Might as well see this through.
Dodgers @ Brewers
Walker Buehler returns from a two month absence. His last rehab start was good, the two before it were not. Overall, he struck out 14 of 61 batters with eight walks (9.8 K-BB%). His best estimator at the major league level this year is a 4.32 xFIP with batters from either side above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. As a positive point, pitch modeling is still buying in. Pitching Bot more than Stuff+ (98) and Pitching+ (102). Buehler has a 3.74 Bot ERA with his five most frequently thrown pitches receiving grades above 50. It’s something.
Opp wRC+: 109 (108 Home)
DEF: -1.5
B30: 3.88
Frankie Montas also has an xFIP for his best estimator, but his is 4.62. He also has just a 9.9 K-BB% with LHBs above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him, though he is holding RHBs below .300. Like Buehler, he has league average Stuff+ (99) and Pitching+ (99) marks, but with a 4.37 Bot ERA, the splitter (20.6%, 0.3 RV/100, 52 PB grade) is the only pitch grade reaching 50, though none are below 48.
Opp wRC+: 114 (110 Road)
DEF: 14.5
B30: 3.66
Unless we’re supposed to see a better version of Walker Buehler tomorrow (and his minor league starts do not suggest that), then I don’t understand why the Dodgers are favored on the road here. Let’s say we give the Dodgers their minor edges for Buehler and offense, the Brewers take a lot of that back with defense, home field and maybe a slight bullpen edge.
Update 6:45 EST: Roof hotline guy is still stuck on Tuesday, so we don't know, but it's only a 2% run scoring difference. I guess everyone thinks the season ends in July. A 2.97% gain on MIL.
Blue Jays @ Angels
In two of his last three starts, Jose Berrios has seven inning, one run outings, striking out 13 of 56 batters with a single walk. In three more, rounding out his last five, he’s allowed 14 runs over 14.2 innings, walking 13 with 11 strikeouts. A pitching time bomb, Berrios has estimators ranging from a 4.46 dERA to a 5.15 FIP that are almost all more than half a run above his 3.97 ERA with a .259 BABIP and 81.4 LOB%. Berrios has average pitch modeling numbers with PB grades ranging from 47 to 56 and a 92 Stuff+ that works up to a 999 Pitching+, but the way he gets there is very chaotic. You may get a gem or a tattooing in any given start.
Opp wRC+: 89 (incl. Tue)
DEF: 18
B30: 4.81
Tyler Anderson has an even lower BABIP (.237) and higher strand rate (83.1%) than Berrios, but just fairly consistently out-performs his peripherals with a 2.99 ERA and a 4.20 xERA that’s his best estimator with a 9.8 K-BB% and 8.5% Barrels/BBE, but a 32.6% hard contact rate. He does have one elite pitch (changeup 36.8%, 1.8 RV/100, 61 PB grade), although it’s not one Toronto struggles against (0.16 wCH/C), and a nearly four point higher SwStr rate (12.1%) than Berrios with just a 1.56 K/SwStr that seems as unsustainable as his BABIP and strand rate. Anderson has gone beyond six innings in 11 of his 23 starts.
Opp wRC+: 89 (19 K%)
DEF: -9
B30: 4.42
Braves @ Giants
Grant Holmes has allowed 9 runs over 14.2 innings, but with a 25 K-BB% over three starts. He has pitched very effectively as a reliever. His full season numbers (20.9 K-BB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE, 38.2% hard hit rate) need to be taken with a grain of salt, but you can certainly see why the Braves want to give him a shot. Three pitches more than 20% with PitchingBot grades between 46 and 55 (a decline since his last start). A 95 Stuff+ works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 94 (102 Home, 75 L7 days) (incl. Tue)
DEF: -13
B30: 3.51
Robbie Ray walked two batters and hit one in his first inning of work before going on to dominate the Dodgers for five innings, striking out eight of 19. He was then shelled for three home runs, not lasting five innings against the A’s. Last time out, he struck out nine of 19 Reds. His last start, against the Tigers, was fairly normal, striking out seven of 25 batters with three walks and two runs over six innings. That’s the Robbie Ray experience in a nutshell. All over the place. A 22.6 K-BB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE through four starts. He’d thrown as many as 94 pitches, but hadn’t exceeded five innings or 21 batters faced in his first three starts, but was up to 105 and 25 last time out.
Opp wRC+: 107 (24.4 K%, 94 Road, 136 L7 days)
DEF: 5.5
B30: 3.49
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented + projected lineup Fielding Run Value averaged
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
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